Tajikistan - The Times Of Central Asia

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CIS

Putin in Tajikistan for CIS Summit Amid Migration Tensions

When President Vladimir Putin arrives in Dushanbe on 8 October for his first state visit, Tajikistan will briefly become the focal point of regional diplomacy. Currently holding the rotating chair of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Dushanbe is preparing to host both the CIS Heads of State Council and the second Russia–Central Asia summit. For Moscow, Central Asia has remained a priority since the invasion of Ukraine, and the visit highlights what is at stake for both Russia and its host. Tajikistan depends heavily on Russia for security, trade, and employment opportunities for its citizens, but relations have been tested by the aftermath of the March 2024 Crocus City Hall attack, which exposed the fragility of migration-driven economics and the risk of renewed extremism. An Old Relationship Tested by New Tensions Russia and Tajikistan have been closely entwined since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Putin has already made twelve trips to Tajikistan since taking office, and this will be his first with state‑visit status. Security cooperation remains the backbone of the relationship. Russia’s 201st military base in Tajikistan - formerly the 201st motor rifle division and now Moscow’s largest overseas facility - has long been billed as a shield along the Afghan frontier; the two sides continue to coordinate through the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization), and within the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) framework. Trade between the two nations has expanded despite sanctions headwinds. On the eve of the visit, presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said bilateral turnover rose by more than 17 % in the first seven months of 2025, and reached about US$1.5 billion in 2024. Russia accounts for over 22 % of Tajikistan’s foreign trade. Meanwhile, more than 1.2 million Tajik citizens work in Russia, making up about 16 % of all foreign workers there. They remitted US$1.8 billion back home last year, roughly 17 % of Tajikistan’s GDP. This symbiosis means that the two leaders routinely discuss labor migration and social issues alongside security and trade. Yet the relationship has been strained by a wave of xenophobia following the Crocus City Hall attack, which killed 145 people, which the Russian authorities accused militants from Tajikistan of perpetrating. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, following the arrest of four Tajik suspects, Central Asian migrants in Russia have faced arson attacks, beatings, and boycotts of their businesses. Russian law enforcement has launched aggressive street inspections and created special units to check hostels and businesses frequented by Central Asians. Even long‑time Tajik residents with Russian citizenship have reported menacing phone calls and threats. In the wake of the attack, diaspora leaders urged compatriots not to leave their homes, and the Tajik interior ministry publicly rebutted Russian media reports, stating that three of the four suspects named were not involved. Those pressures hit a country heavily reliant on remittances. The World Bank’s 2025 update estimates that money sent home by migrants accounted for 49 % of Tajikistan’s GDP in 2024. Since the start of the Ukraine war, Russian politicians and media have become increasingly hostile toward Central Asian migrants, leading Moscow to deactivate all foreign‑owned SIM cards and...

Entrepreneurship

EBRD Launches Online Mentoring Platform for Entrepreneurs in Tajikistan

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Tajikistan have a new avenue of support: the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has launched an online platform offering mentoring and professional consultations. The initiative is funded by the Government of Switzerland. A Global Community for Tajik Entrepreneurs The new platform, MicroMentor.tj, connects Tajik business owners with a global network of more than 420,000 entrepreneurs and 120,000 mentors across 180 countries. Available in six languages, including Russian, the service is free and accessible to entrepreneurs even in remote regions of Tajikistan. The platform aims to expand opportunities for SMEs, foster innovation, support business development, and generate employment. Promotion of the platform within the country is supported by local partner Shedevr, headed by Muboriz Subkhonov. Mentoring as a Growth Tool The EBRD has long supported SMEs not only through financial instruments but also via non-financial services such as mentoring, sector-specific consultations, training, and educational events. According to the bank, 77% of entrepreneurs who engaged actively with mentors reported increased revenues. The new platform builds on the Mentoring for Women Entrepreneurs program, which supported more than 100 participants from Dushanbe, Khatlon, Sughd, and Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO), with guidance from 50 mentors from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia. Over a nine-month period, 108 mentor-mentee pairs were formed. Nearly all participants reported tangible outcomes: 95% improved their business skills 93% expanded their businesses 90% created new jobs EBRD Updates Strategy for Tajikistan Coinciding with the platform’s launch, the EBRD approved a new country strategy for Tajikistan through 2030, prioritizing structural reforms, private sector development, and sustainable growth in energy, transport, and urban infrastructure. “The new strategy reflects our commitment to supporting Tajikistan’s economic development through a comprehensive approach combining financial resources, policy dialogue, and technical assistance,” the EBRD press service stated. The bank plans to support projects that enhance competitiveness and foster technological independence. To date, the EBRD has invested more than €1 billion in Tajikistan’s economy across 185 projects. According to the latest Regional Economic Prospects report, the EBRD forecasts Tajikistan’s GDP growth at 7% in 2025 and 5.7% in 2026. Key drivers include infrastructure investments, private sector expansion, and advancements in digital technologies and energy. The new strategy integrates investment, advisory support, and regulatory reform to create a more favorable business environment for Tajikistan’s growing economy.

Rogun Dam

Tajikistan’s Rogun Dam to Triple Forests Under No Net Loss Plan

The construction of Tajikistan’s massive Rogun Hydropower Plant (HPP) will proceed under strict environmental conditions, guided by what experts describe as a "No Net Loss" (NNL) approach to nature. According to Asia-Plus, the updated Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) for the project outlines a series of measures to offset ecological damage, including large-scale forest restoration. The report states that 262 hectares of land, including 185 hectares of juniper forest and 77 hectares of floodplain, will be lost due to construction. To compensate, authorities plan to restore 786 hectares of new forest, tripling the area impacted. The reforestation effort will prioritize juniper, riverside, and fruit and nut forests, while also establishing new protected areas to reinforce local ecosystems. Tajikistan’s Forestry Agency has already allocated nearly 7,600 hectares of land for these efforts. Reforestation is expected to cost over $7.5 million, with annual maintenance costs projected at approximately $10,500. The ESIA outlines a phased strategy. From 2025 to 2030, specific restoration sites will be identified. Practical implementation, including planting and ecosystem protection, is scheduled to begin in 2031. The NNL principle aims to ensure that long-term ecological gains outweigh short-term environmental disruptions. Once completed, the Rogun HPP will have an installed capacity of 3,780 megawatts, making it the largest hydropower facility in Central Asia. Its six turbines, each with a capacity of 630 MW, are expected to generate over 14.5 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually once the plant becomes fully operational in 2029. Two units, launched in 2018 and 2019, are already producing power at reduced capacity. In 2024, the plant generated 1.22 billion kWh, accounting for 5.5 percent of Tajikistan’s total electricity output. However, the project has not escaped controversy. The World Bank’s Inspection Panel recently agreed to review a formal complaint filed by residents of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, supported by the regional coalition Rivers Without Boundaries. The complaint questions the adequacy of the project's environmental assessments, which critics argue fail to fully account for downstream impacts on communities and ecosystems along the Amu Darya basin. Despite these concerns, Tajik officials maintain that Rogun will enhance national energy independence while also helping position Central Asia as a hub for renewable energy.

Domestic Development

Central Asia and Regional Integration: Logistics, Water, Energy

Central Asia is undergoing a profound transformation, where questions of domestic development and the region’s ability to act in a coordinated way are coming to the forefront. For many years, Central Asian states were viewed as fragmented, each pursuing separate strategies that often put them in competition. Today, however, shared challenges and growing interdependence are making gradual convergence increasingly likely. The region now confronts common pressures such as water scarcity, energy imbalances, environmental degradation, and the fallout of instability in Afghanistan -- issues that no single country can effectively address in isolation. Increasingly, regional platforms such as the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination (ICWC) are being leveraged to mediate water-energy tradeoffs, while joint initiatives in transport, transit, and energy infrastructure foster new integration. Moreover, leading actors like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are pushing coordinated strategies -- modernizing rail and aviation links, coordinating transboundary water allocations, and exploring nuclear cooperation -- that point toward a more interconnected regional future. Shared Challenges and Points of Convergence The region faces problems that no country can solve alone. These include water shortages, energy imbalances, environmental risks, and instability in Afghanistan. Such challenges can be seen as both threats and opportunities, since they also represent areas of overlapping interest. Joint action in these fields can deliver more than fragmented national strategies. Water is particularly important, remaining one of the most sensitive issues in interstate relations. Yet it also offers opportunities for coordinated action through existing regional platforms, such as the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination of Central Asia. The “water for energy” model is increasingly seen as a practical tool, already under discussion and applied in bilateral and multilateral projects. Environmental issues are similarly shared. The disappearance of the Aral Sea, land degradation, air pollution, and glacier melt create threats that transcend national borders. Joint monitoring, data exchange, and coordinated adaptation measures, particularly within the United Nations Regional Centre for the Sustainable Development Goals for Central Asia and Afghanistan, opened in August 2025 in Almaty, could become a new direction for regional cooperation. Afghanistan remains another risk factor that affects the security of the entire region. At the same time, transportation and energy projects linking Central Asia with South Asia through Afghan territory can turn a challenge into an opportunity. Reducing instability and integrating Afghanistan into regional trade and transit networks serves the interests of all Central Asian states. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan as leading forces To understand how closer integration might work in practice, it is useful to examine the strategies of the region’s two key players: Astana and Tashkent. The major agreements concluded by Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan with the United States in transport and aviation should be viewed not as isolated deals, but as evidence of the complementary strengths of the two largest economies in Central Asia. Kazakhstan signed its largest locomotive contract to date with U.S. company Wabtec, a $4.2 billion agreement for 300 TE33A freight locomotives to be assembled at the Wabtec Kazakhstan plant in Astana, along with servicing support. This will modernize...

Glaciers

Learning About Glaciers: Scientists Extract Ice Cores in Tajikistan

A group of international scientists is on a complex, arduous expedition to learn more about the glaciers of the Pamir Mountains in Tajikistan, drilling and extracting two deep ice cores in what the team descibes as a race against the impact of global warming. Scientists from the Swiss-funded PAMIR Project and their Tajik partners are working at an altitude of 5,800 meters on the Kon Chukurbashi ice cap, taking ice samples down to the bedrock at an estimated depth of just over 100 meters. “The Pamirs remain to date one of the last major high-altitude regions where no deep ice core has ever been retrieved,” the PAMIR Project said in a statement. “If many glaciers in the Pamir Mountains of Tajikistan still seem resilient in the face of global warming, scientists do not know how long this will last.” The two-week expedition began on September 24. If successful, it will secure environmental information from air bubbles and chemical trace concentrations and isotopes, and possibly organisms trapped in the ice, and help future generations anticipate and adapt to changes in Earth’s climate and ecosystems, the project said. The expedition is being coordinated by the University of Fribourg in Switzerland and conducted by the National Academy of Sciences of Tajikistan along with Swiss, Japanese, and American universities. Because of the extreme altitude, team members had prepared for gradual acclimatization with a plan for a base camp and a camp at higher altitude. Logistical difficulties and the challenges of site access have prevented such an expedition in the past. The Pamir glaciers are a riddle to scientists who have observed both health and decay in the reaction of the high-altitude ecosystems to climate change. Various theories, including more wind-induced precipitation at high elevations and summertime cooling, have been put forward. But field measurements are lacking and the theories have not been tested against scientific data. At an international conference on glacier preservation in Dushanbe this year, President Emomali Rahmon of Tajikistan called for the establishment of a regional lab to study the topic. Most of Central Asia’s glaciers are in Tajikistan. The United Nations said last month that some 1,000 glaciers out of the total number of 14,000 that have existed in Tajikistan in recent decades have disappeared and many small ones are expected to vanish in the next 30-40 years. A recent study published in the Communications Earth & Environment journal noted the relative stability of some glaciers in Central Asia, but said there had been a recent drop in glacier health in the Northwestern Pamirs following significantly lower snowfall and snow depth since 2018. One of the authors of that study is Evan Miles, a Switzerland-based glaciologist who is leading the current PAMIR Project expedition. “This ice holds hundreds and possibly even thousands of years of physical records of snowfall, temperature, dust, and atmospheric chemistry,” Miles said, according to the project statement. “We are racing against time to retrieve it before climate-change induced melt damages these natural archives forever.” Of the two ice...

Qosh Tepa Canal

Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa Canal Raises Water Security Fears

Water has long been one of Central Asia’s most contested resources, shaping agriculture, energy policy, and diplomacy across the region. Recently, Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa Canal project has emerged as a central point in this debate. Promoted by the Taliban as a vital step toward achieving food security and economic growth, the canal also raises alarm bells among downstream neighbors who heavily depend on the Amu Darya River. Now, according to Islamic Emirate spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid, the second phase of the project is expected to be completed within five months, raising further concerns among downstream countries about its potential impact on regional water security. Progress on the Ground In August, the Afghan authorities stated that 93% of the second phase had been completed. Videos show the canal lined with concrete and stone in some sections, alongside the construction of large and medium-sized bridges to link surrounding settlements. The project spans 128 kilometers from Dawlatabad district in Balkh province to Andkhoy district in Faryab province and involves over 60 contractors, making it one of Afghanistan’s largest infrastructure projects. Origins and International Support The canal’s roots trace back to earlier international efforts. While some sources attribute its conceptual origins to Soviet or British engineers in the 1960s, significant development began in 2018 under President Ashraf Ghani. The project was supported by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and Indian engineering firms. According to the Scientific-Information Center of the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination (SIC ICWC), a $3.6 million feasibility study was launched in Kabul in December 2018, funded by USAID and conducted by AACS Consulting and BETS Consulting Services Ltd. The study was coordinated with several Afghan ministries, but has not been published. Following the Taliban’s takeover, the Islamic Emirate held an official inauguration ceremony on March 30, 2022. The full canal is designed to stretch 285 kilometers, measuring 100 meters wide and 8.5 meters deep, and is expected to divert an estimated six to ten cubic kilometers of water annually from the Amu Darya. Afghan media have quoted water management expert Najibullah Sadid, who projected the canal could generate between $470 million and $550 million in annual revenue. Regional Concerns and Environmental Risks The project has raised alarm in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan, countries that depend heavily on the Amu Darya for irrigation. Experts at SIC ICWC point out that no environmental impact assessment was conducted for downstream states, nor were they formally notified of the construction, as required by international water conventions. In December 2022, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev called for practical dialogue with Afghanistan and the international community to strengthen regional water security. Adroit Associates estimates that the canal could eventually divert up to 13 billion cubic meters annually, nearly one-quarter of the Amu Darya’s average flow. Environmental risks are also mounting. Analysts warn that Uzbekistan, which relies heavily on the river for agriculture, could face soil degradation and declining crop yields. Turkmenistan, where agriculture accounts for 12% of GDP, may also suffer severe disruptions. Some studies suggest Uzbekistan and...