Tajikistan - The Times Of Central Asia

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World Bank

World Bank Approves $20 Million Project to Boost Cross-Border Water Cooperation in Central Asia

The World Bank has announced a $20 million grant to strengthen transboundary water cooperation in Central Asia. The project is intended to improve management of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins as climate change, ageing infrastructure, and rising demand increase pressure on shared water resources. The funding, approved by the World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors, will support the Central Asia Water Efficiency Cooperation Project (CAWEC). It will be implemented by the Executive Committee of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (EC IFAS). EC IFAS’s current procurement notice identifies Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan as the participating states. According to the World Bank, limited cooperation over shared water and energy resources costs the region more than $4.5 billion a year. The bank says fragmented reservoir operations, weak data sharing, and ageing infrastructure prevent countries from capturing gains that better regional coordination could provide. The project will strengthen regional institutions, modernize water accounting and information systems, and improve data sharing. By 2031, EC IFAS is expected to prepare feasibility studies, technical documents, and environmental assessments for up to six transboundary water infrastructure projects involving at least two countries. The $20 million grant will not finance the construction of those projects. The preparatory work is intended to help governments attract further investment for irrigation modernization, water conservation and storage, and coordinated management of shared rivers. It will also support digital systems and equipment for the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins. Up to 100 staff members from regional water organizations will receive training. The World Bank estimates that around 40 million people will benefit directly or indirectly from improved regional water management. The International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea was established in 1993 by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan to coordinate responses to the environmental and economic consequences of the Aral Sea disaster. The project concerns the Aral Sea basin’s two principal river systems. The Amu Darya is formed by headwaters rising mainly in the Pamirs and Hindu Kush and flows through or along Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. The Syr Darya is fed by Tien Shan headwaters and crosses Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan. Both rivers historically fed the Aral Sea. The grant arrives amid severe regional water stress. Central Asian governments agreed 2026 allocations from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya in November 2025, but low reservoir levels and reduced inflows continue to threaten irrigation and energy production. Kazakhstan is pursuing a parallel effort to restore the North Aral Sea, the section of the former inland sea fed by the Syr Darya. In a ministry statement, Water Resources and Irrigation Minister Nurzhan Nurzhigitov said an additional 1.2 billion cubic meters of water should be directed to the North Aral by the end of 2026. According to the ministry, 1.4 billion cubic meters have been delivered since October 1, 2025. The North Aral now contains 23.5 billion cubic meters of water, while salinity has fallen by about 10% from a year earlier. Fishermen caught 4,200 metric...

Rule of Law

Former Tajik Prosecutor’s Office Investigator Detained in Case of 23-Year-Old Woman’s Death

Tajikistan’s prosecutor general has confirmed that a former senior investigator is in custody in connection with the death of 23-year-old Mehrona Noibova, whose body was found near the Pyanj River in April. At a July 22 press conference, Prosecutor General Khabibullo Vokhidzoda said criminal proceedings had been opened against Firuz Saidzoda, formerly a senior investigator for especially important cases at the Prosecutor General’s Office. He said Saidzoda remained in detention while the investigation continued. The case was opened under Article 109, Part 1 of Tajikistan’s Criminal Code, a provision which covers causing a person to take or attempt to take their own life through threats, cruel treatment, or systematic humiliation. It carries a prison sentence of three to five years. The authorities have not disclosed the conduct underlying the case or the evidence gathered against Saidzoda. Noibova travelled with a group of friends to the Chorchaman resort in Darvoz district on April 3, according to local reports. She disappeared early the following morning. Her body was found on April 7 near the Pyanj River in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region. The fast-flowing Patkunob River runs through the resort and joins the Pyanj nearby. [caption id="attachment_52664" align="aligncenter" width="1774"] The Chorchaman resort in Darvoz district[/caption] Saidzoda and another Prosecutor General’s Office employee, Davlat Arabzoda, were among those on the trip. Vokhidzoda said Arabzoda had accompanied Saidzoda as a driver on a personal journey and was not involved in Noibova’s death. Noibova’s family has challenged the account that she took her own life. In April, a family friend told Radio Ozodi that relatives were being pressed to accept that explanation and sign case documents. The allegation has not been independently verified, and the Prosecutor General’s Office did not publicly address it at the time. Vokhidzoda’s remarks provide the first official confirmation that an employee of the Prosecutor General’s Office has been detained in connection with the case. The office has not released forensic findings, explained how Noibova entered the water, or specified what alleged threats, treatment, or humiliation formed the basis of the Article 109 investigation. [caption id="attachment_52666" align="aligncenter" width="1774"] The Pyanj River on the road between Qal’ai Khumb and Shurabad; image: Stephen M. Bland[/caption] The authorities have also not announced when the investigation is expected to conclude, whether the case will be sent to trial, or which body is overseeing an inquiry involving one of the Prosecutor General’s Office’s own former investigators. No court has so far ruled on the allegation against Saidzoda. If the case reaches trial, it will enter a judicial system in which acquittals are exceptionally rare. Tajikistan recorded one acquittal in the first half of 2026, after none in 2024 or 2025. As The Times of Central Asia reported in February, acquittals have accounted for well under 1% of criminal judgments in recent years. The authorities have not disclosed whether Saidzoda has entered a plea.

Extreme Heat

Extreme Heat Buckles Roads and Strains Power Grids Across Central Asia

Extreme heat across Central Asia in mid-July has buckled concrete highways, pushed electricity demand to record levels, and increased pressure on power grids and ambulance services. Kazakhstan reported road deformation and repeated failures in Almaty, Uzbekistan set consumption and generation records, Kyrgyzstan introduced temporary cuts to protect equipment, and residents in Tajikistan reported local disruptions. Temperatures above 40°C are common in parts of the region, but prolonged heat can strain several systems at once. Demand for cooling rises, road surfaces reach damaging temperatures, and health risks increase. The World Bank says much of Central Asia’s infrastructure was built in the mid-20th century and is overdue for renewal. Kazakhstan’s Roads and Power Networks Struggle Almaty recorded daily temperature highs on three consecutive days. The temperature reached 38°C on July 16, 39.2°C on July 17, and 40°C on July 18. The city’s July record remains 43.4°C, set in 1983. The heat also damaged Kazakhstan’s road network. KazAvtoZhol found temperature-related deformation on six highway sections in the Zhambyl, Pavlodar, and Turkestan regions. The national road operator said concrete surfaces can reach 60 to 70°C, and sometimes higher, during extreme weather. The resulting internal stress can deform concrete slabs. More than 50 workers repaired the affected sections, and traffic continued without restrictions. Road crews were monitoring more than 1,600 kilometers of concrete highway. Almaty’s ambulance service received more than 33,600 calls during the first two weeks of July. Medical officials said many involved sudden spikes in blood pressure and cardiovascular conditions, including coronary heart disease and acute heart attacks. Stroke patients were taken to hospital. Officials advised residents to avoid direct sunlight between 11 a.m. and 5 p.m., drink sufficient fluids, and seek medical help if their condition deteriorated. The city’s electricity network has faced record electricity demand between July 17 and 20 as residents increased their use of air conditioners and other appliances. The Alatau Zharyk Company said technical failures occurred in several districts, sometimes followed by faults on neighboring sections of the network. Thirty-five repair crews were deployed around the clock. The pressure extended beyond Almaty. Kazakhstan consumed 338.66 million kilowatt-hours of electricity on July 14, while domestic generation totaled 314.27 million kilowatt-hours, according to KOREM electricity data. Consumption also exceeded generation on each of the previous three days. Kazakhstan has historically covered such shortfalls through electricity imports, principally from Russia. Record Electricity Demand in Uzbekistan Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Energy warned on July 13 that daily electricity consumption could reach a summer record of 280 million kilowatt-hours, with peak demand rising to between 13 and 13.3 gigawatts. Demand subsequently exceeded that forecast. On July 18, consumption reached 294.4 million kilowatt-hours, 8% above the previous summer record. Peak evening demand rose to 13.7 gigawatts. Power plants produced a record 297.1 million kilowatt-hours on the same day. Despite the increase in production, technical faults caused temporary outages in several districts of Tashkent. At different times, the disruptions affected between several hundred and 2,700 consumers, according to the Ministry of Energy. Supplies were later restored....

Women's Employment

Nearly Half of Young Women in Tajikistan Are Not Working or Studying, Survey Finds

New results from Tajikistan’s 2025 Labor Force Survey point to persistent structural weaknesses in the country’s labor market. Although the official unemployment rate remains relatively low, labor force participation is limited, particularly among women and young people. Of the country’s 6.87 million people aged 15–75, 3.02 million are in the labor force, producing a participation rate of 43.9%. The rate is 57.1% among men and 30.9% among women, a gap of 26.2 percentage points. The World Bank previously described Tajikistan’s labor force participation rate as the lowest in Central Asia. The official unemployment rate is 6.3%, but the survey’s expanded measure of labor underutilization presents a less favorable picture. This measure includes unemployed people and the potential labor force, as well as those experiencing time-related underemployment. On this basis, the rate rises to 11.7%. Among women, it approaches 14%. The survey also shows a gradual shift in where employed people live. The urban share of employment increased from 20% in 2004 to 28.4% in 2025, but 71.6% of employed people still live in rural areas. That figure demonstrates the rural concentration of employment, although it does not by itself show how many people work in agriculture. Separately, the World Bank estimates that agriculture employs more than 40% of Tajikistan’s labor force. The findings on young people are particularly stark. Among those aged 15–24, nearly 27% are not in education, employment or training (NEET). The rate is 40.1% among young women, compared with 13.2% among young men. The gender divide is even wider among those aged 15–29. In this group, 45% of women are neither employed nor pursuing education or training, compared with 12.4% of men. The figures suggest that Tajikistan’s main labor-market challenge is not fully captured by the conventional unemployment rate. People who are not working but are neither actively seeking employment nor immediately available to start work are generally not counted as unemployed. Low participation and high NEET rates therefore reveal pressures that the headline unemployment figure does not. Women and young people account for much of this unused labor potential. Expanding their access to employment will be especially important as the country’s working-age population grows. The World Bank estimates that about 600,000 young people will enter Tajikistan’s labor force over the coming decade and that the economy will need to generate approximately 1.4 million jobs during that period. It also describes the country’s economy as heavily dependent on the export of low-skilled labor and the remittances those workers send home. These concerns are reflected in the World Bank Group’s Country Partnership Framework for Tajikistan for fiscal years 2026–2032. The strategy prioritizes a better-skilled and healthier workforce, along with increased private investment. It also seeks to create more and better jobs and calls for measures to raise labor force participation, particularly among women and young people. In May, the World Bank approved the Tajikistan Women’s Economic Empowerment Project. The initiative is expected to create 3,450 jobs and help 850 women-owned or women-led businesses gain access to financial services. It...

Mongolia-Central Asia Relations

Tajikistan’s President Rahmon Visits Mongolia as Ulaanbaatar Expands Central Asia Outreach

Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon is visiting Mongolia for the first time since 2009, as the two countries pursue closer ties and Mongolia expands its engagement with Central Asia. An honor guard welcomed Rahmon on his arrival in the Mongolian capital of Ulaanbaatar on Monday, and the Tajik leader later met President Ukhnaa Khurelsukh, Tajikistan’s presidential office said. The two presidents aim to expand cooperation in politics, trade, the economy, agriculture, energy, transport, and culture, and will also discuss regional and international issues, according to Montsame, Mongolia’s state-owned news agency. “The visit will mark the first state visit by Tajikistan’s president to Mongolia in 17 years, following his previous visit in 2009,” Montsame reported. “It also serves as a reciprocal visit following President Khurelsukh's state visit to Tajikistan in 2025.” While trade between Mongolia and Tajikistan is relatively small, the warming ties are part of a wider Mongolian government policy to engage with Central Asia and diversify its economic partners. Coal, copper and other mining products are a big part of the economy of landlocked Mongolia, whose exports primarily go to China. Russia is to the north of Mongolia, and China is to the south, while Mongolia’s western tip is separated from Kazakhstan by a sliver of Chinese territory. “Northeast Asia remains Mongolia’s primary economic anchor in terms of exports, investment, and access to seaports,” Khaliunaa Batjargal wrote in a Think Mongol Institute analysis. “At the same time, Central Asia offers a different set of strategic opportunities. Cooperation with similarly landlocked, resource-based economies creates space for new market access and alternative transport options.” The analysis was published in April, shortly after a visit by the Mongolian leader to Kazakhstan, where he met President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. Deals and high-level visits have also occurred in recent years between Mongolia and other Central Asian countries, including Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. Mongolia, a former Soviet satellite state with a population of several million, sought to build relationships with Central Asian countries after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, but that effort stagnated in the 2000s as opportunities for Mongolia increased in East Asia while Russia maintained a close relationship with the former Soviet republics, according to a Jamestown Foundation analysis by Nurbek Bekmurzaev in 2024. Now, as Central Asian countries expand their own trading partners and corridors, Mongolia is seeking to explore the potential of the region as a transit hub. Many analysts view an old debate about whether Mongolia is part of Central Asia or Northeast Asia as more academic than practical.

External Debt

The Central Asia Debt Divide: Why the Region’s Borrowing Risks Are Not the Same

Central Asia’s biggest debtor is not necessarily its most vulnerable. Kazakhstan accounts for roughly two-thirds of the region’s external liabilities, but much of that debt sits on corporate balance sheets rather than the government’s. Tajikistan owes a fraction of the amount, yet remains at high risk of debt distress. The contrast highlights the Central Asia debt divide. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan rely more heavily on sovereign and concessional borrowing, while Uzbekistan’s external liabilities are now split almost evenly between the public and corporate sectors. Based on the latest available figures from national authorities and international financial institutions, the combined external debt of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan approached $275 billion in early 2026. Turkmenistan has not been included in the estimate because the country does not publish comprehensive official external debt statistics that can be directly compared with those of its regional neighbors. The total is an approximate calculation compiled from national statistics rather than a regional aggregate published by a single institution. The countries also release their debt data for different reporting dates and use different classifications, requiring caution when making direct comparisons. Total external debt includes obligations owed to non-residents by governments, central banks, commercial banks, private companies, and, in some countries, local subsidiaries of foreign corporations. Government external debt is a narrower measure covering liabilities that are directly serviced or guaranteed by the state. China remains an important bilateral creditor, particularly in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, while multilateral institutions provide much of the region’s infrastructure and public-sector financing. Kyrgyzstan: Rising Debt, but a Broader Creditor Base Kyrgyzstan’s public debt has risen alongside increased infrastructure spending and domestic borrowing, although its creditor base has become more diversified. A smaller share is now owed to a single bilateral lender, while multilateral financing and the domestic securities market have grown in importance. According to the Kyrgyz Ministry of Finance’s public debt data, the country’s total public debt stood at approximately $8.94 billion as of May 31, 2026, including around $6.1 billion in external obligations. The debt debate has also become part of President Sadyr Japarov’s broader economic narrative. In an interview with the Kabar national news agency published on October 8, 2025, Japarov said his government was continuing to borrow but argued that new loans were being directed toward commercial projects expected to repay their own financing rather than place an additional burden on the state budget. He also said Kyrgyzstan intended to repay its older debts by 2035. The International Monetary Fund said in its 2026 Article IV consultation that Kyrgyzstan had recorded strong economic growth for a fourth consecutive year, giving the authorities an opportunity to strengthen fiscal buffers and accelerate structural reforms. It also warned that the outlook remained exposed to significant downside risks. Kazakhstan: A Large External Debt, but a Different Risk Profile Kazakhstan accounts for the largest share of Central Asia’s external debt, but its headline figure can be misleading. Unlike several of its neighbors, the country’s external liabilities are dominated by corporate and intercompany borrowing rather...