Tajikistan Business Economy - The Times Of Central Asia

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World Bank Approves New $300 Million Grant for Tajikistan’s Rogun Hydropower Project

The World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors has approved a second phase of financing for Tajikistan’s Rogun Hydropower Plant, providing a $300 million grant to support construction of what is expected to become the largest power station in Central Asia. According to the World Bank, the new funding from the International Development Association will finance civil works, electromechanical equipment for electricity generation, project implementation support, and environmental and social measures, including resettlement assistance and livelihood restoration for affected households. The financing will also support reservoir monitoring, forecasting systems, and flood-risk management for downstream communities. The Rogun project is expected to generate 14,400 gigawatt-hours of renewable electricity annually, equivalent to roughly 60% of Tajikistan’s current electricity generation. The World Bank said the plant will help reduce the country’s chronic winter electricity shortages, improve access to reliable power for around 10 million people, create more than 30,000 direct and indirect jobs, and enable electricity exports to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. “In addition to reducing chronic power shortages, increased access to reliable electricity from the Rogun HPP will help power economic transformation and create jobs in Tajikistan,” said Najy Benhassine, the World Bank’s director for Central Asia. “By increasing the supply of clean electricity, this transformational project will help power homes, businesses, and public services, creating employment opportunities in the country.” The World Bank also said increased electricity exports would strengthen regional energy trade. “By facilitating electricity exports, the Rogun HPP will help revitalize the regional power market, allowing Central Asian countries to use their energy assets more efficiently,” said Charles Cormier, the bank’s director for infrastructure in Europe and Central Asia. “Enhanced regional connectivity is expected to reduce supply constraints in the region and contribute to improved reliability and energy security.” At the request of the government of Tajikistan, the World Bank is coordinating international support for the project through the Rogun Coordination Group. The group includes development partners that have approved or expressed interest in supporting the project, including the Asian Development Bank, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, European Investment Bank, Islamic Development Bank, OPEC Fund, and several Gulf-based development funds. The latest financing comes as the project continues to face environmental scrutiny. Last year, The Times of Central Asia reported that the World Bank’s Inspection Panel had registered and reviewed a complaint concerning the bank’s involvement in the Rogun project. The complaint was submitted by the environmental coalition Rivers Without Boundaries on behalf of communities living downstream in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. The complainants argued that the project’s environmental and social assessments were outdated and did not fully evaluate potential downstream impacts. Environmental groups warned that filling the Rogun reservoir could reduce water flow to the Amu Darya delta, potentially accelerating desertification, increasing soil salinity, and affecting livelihoods in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. In November 2025, environmental groups criticized the World Bank Board after it declined to authorize a full investigation, despite an Inspection Panel recommendation for a comprehensive review. The World Bank has said the project is subject to environmental and social safeguards,...

Foreign Investors Remain Interested in Central Asia Despite Volatility, Survey Finds

International investors continue to view Central Asia and the Caucasus as attractive destinations despite heightened geopolitical tensions and market volatility, according to the third annual Investor Perception Report released by Montfort Eurasia. The survey, conducted among institutional investors in the United Kingdom and the United States, found that interest in the region remains high. Overall, 66.3% of respondents reported either strong or moderate interest in investing in Central Asia and the Caucasus, suggesting that the region is increasingly being considered as part of broader emerging-market strategies rather than as a niche destination. Among UK investors, 67.1% expressed strong or moderate interest, while the figure stood at 65.5% in the U.S. Around one-third of respondents in both countries reported very strong interest in the region, with 32.8% in the UK and 34.6% in the U.S. Recent U.S. commercial engagement in Central Asia has also moved from dialogue toward specific deals. The Montfort Eurasia report suggests that investor attitudes have shifted over the past three years. While early interest was driven largely by curiosity, investors are now approaching the region with more detailed financial analysis and due diligence. “Two years ago, the challenge for Central Asia and the Caucasus was getting noticed. Today it is being understood,” said Eleanor Kramers, managing director of Montfort Eurasia. “Investors have arrived and they have arrived as analysts, reaching for financial data and due diligence ahead of headlines. The region has answered their early interest with proof rather than promise, from international listings to sovereign-rating upgrades. The opportunity now is to meet a more serious, more demanding audience with the depth and consistency of information it expects.” One of the clearest signs of that shift is where investors obtain information. Financial analysis has overtaken international news media as the leading source of intelligence about the region, cited by 68.6% of UK respondents and 56.6% of U.S. respondents. According to the report, investors are increasingly evaluating the region through company performance, financial statements, and sector data rather than through media coverage alone. Although interest remains high, the report found that investors’ knowledge of the region has stopped improving. Respondents rated their understanding at 6.63 out of 10 in the UK and 6.79 out of 10 in the U.S., slightly below last year’s peak. Factual awareness also weakened. Only 29% of UK investors correctly estimated trade volumes between the UK and the region, compared with 39% a year earlier, while roughly one-quarter of respondents in both countries could not identify the region’s most business-friendly country. Political and economic risks also remain key considerations. Investment security ranked as investors’ biggest concern, cited by 72.3% of UK respondents and 64.7% of U.S. respondents. Political stability followed closely behind, with 56.2% of UK investors and 52.9% of U.S. investors identifying it as a major factor. Among British respondents, improved political stability was the most frequently cited condition for increasing investment in the region.

Opinion: Russia’s Migration Crackdown Tests Central Asia’s Labor Alternatives

Russia is no longer the unquestioned labor destination it once was for Central Asian workers. That shift is real, but it is easy to overstate. The Times of Central Asia recently reported that labor migration from the region is becoming more diverse. Workers are looking not only to Russia, but also to South Korea, the Gulf states, the United Kingdom, Poland, Belarus, and other destinations. The old Russia-centered model is weakening, even if it has not collapsed. The question is scale. It now intersects with two other filters: legal status and banking access. Alternative labor markets can absorb some Central Asian workers, but they cannot yet replace the Russian labor outlet. Russia did not function as an ordinary destination. For years, it acted as the region's largest external labor valve: geographically close, linguistically familiar, legally accessible for some, and large enough to absorb millions of workers across construction, services, logistics, agriculture, and municipal labor. South Korea, the UK, Poland, and the Gulf can offer higher wages and more formal recruitment channels. They can also reduce overdependence on Moscow. But they are more selective, more bureaucratic, and much smaller in immediate absorption capacity. That leaves a more important question: can new destinations expand fast enough to offset a narrowing Russian market? For now, the answer is probably no. Diversification Is Real, but Not Replacement The difference between diversification and replacement is crucial. A worker from Kyrgyzstan leaving for seasonal work in the UK, or a worker from Uzbekistan entering an organized recruitment program in South Korea, represents a genuine shift. These routes can be safer, better paid, and less exposed to the social hostility now facing many Central Asian migrants in Russia. But they cannot absorb workers on the same scale. Russia's labor market absorbed Central Asian workers in very large numbers because it had a combination few other destinations can match: proximity, low entry costs, dense migrant networks, Russian-language familiarity, and long-standing informal labor channels. Even as those channels become more restrictive, they remain embedded in household economies across the region. This is why diversification should be read as a partial adaptation, not a full exit. For governments in Tashkent, Bishkek, and Dushanbe, the search for new labor markets is necessary. It reduces exposure to Russian policy shocks. It gives workers more choices. It also helps governments negotiate better legal recruitment schemes. Yet the structural problem remains. If Russia closes the door faster than alternatives can open, pressure does not disappear. It returns home through unemployment, lower remittances, and frustrated expectations. The EAEU Line Russia's migration crackdown does not affect Central Asia evenly. The most important dividing line is not geography. It is legal status. Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan are members of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), which allows the free movement of labor among member states. In practical terms, citizens of Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan have a different legal status in Russia than citizens of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. They do not face the same work-permit and labor-patent system. That does not...

Tajikistan Nearly Halves Undernourishment, but Healthy Diets Remain Out of Reach for Many

Tajikistan has nearly halved its undernourishment rate over the past decade, but food insecurity and access to healthy diets remain major challenges for a significant share of the population, according to a new regional report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The report on food security and nutrition in Europe and Central Asia said the prevalence of undernourishment in Tajikistan fell to 8.4% in 2022-2024 from 16.1% in 2014-2016, marking one of the strongest improvements in the region. Despite the progress, Tajikistan remains among the countries in Europe and Central Asia where undernourishment exceeds the FAO’s 2.5% benchmark. Central Asia remains the only subregion where the indicator stayed above that threshold, at 2.8% in both 2023 and 2024. The report said around a quarter of Tajikistan’s population faced moderate or severe food insecurity in 2022-2024, above the Central Asian average. Across the region, 16.2% of the population, or 13.3 million people, faced similar conditions in 2024. Access to healthy diets also remains a challenge. In 2024, about 24% of Tajikistan’s population could not afford a healthy diet, compared with the Central Asian average of 14%, according to FAO. That figure has improved from more than 30% in 2019 but remains one of the highest in the region. Only neighboring Kyrgyzstan recorded a higher rate, at 30.4%, while Uzbekistan stood at about 13% and Kazakhstan at 4% to 5%. Child nutrition indicators have improved but remain uneven. Stunting among children under five in Tajikistan fell to around 13% in 2024, nearly half the level recorded in 2012, though still above the 10% threshold. Tajikistan also recorded the highest child wasting rate in the region, at 6.4%, the report showed. The report also highlighted persistent anemia among women, affecting around 37% of women aged 15 to 49, while obesity among adults has risen to about 24%. Exclusive breastfeeding was one of the few positive trends. According to UNICEF, exclusive breastfeeding among infants under six months rose to 40.8% in 2023 from 14.2% in 2000.

Labor Migration

Central Asian Labor Migration Shifts as Russia Loses Some of Its Pull

Russia remains the main destination for many Central Asian labor migrants, but its dominance is weakening. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Western sanctions, tougher Russian migration rules, and rising hostility toward migrants have pushed workers from the region to look elsewhere. South Korea, the Gulf states, the United Kingdom, Poland, Belarus, and other destinations are increasingly competing with Russia for Central Asian labor. The result is not a collapse of the old migration model, but a visible diversification of flows as the geography of labor migration from the region expands. Kazakhstan: From Destination Country to Source of Skilled Migrants Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, most labor migrants from Central Asia have traveled to Russia in search of work. A shortage of local labor, relatively decent wages, familiarity with the language, and a similar mentality have driven many to seek jobs in major Russian cities. Kazakhstan is an exception. It has not seen mass migration of its own citizens into lower-skilled jobs in Russia such as janitorial or construction work. Kazakhstan’s own economy offers such jobs, unemployment has remained low, and employers continue to report shortages in both manual work and skilled professions. The Bureau of National Statistics put unemployment at 4.5% in the first quarter of 2026. For this reason, Kazakhstan has also long been a destination for migrants from neighboring states, even if Russia has traditionally attracted larger flows. Kazakh citizens working abroad generally aim for higher-paying jobs in sectors requiring qualifications. The government was already tracking this in 2024, when the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection reported, using Foreign Ministry data, that 137,000 Kazakh citizens were abroad for employment purposes. The largest numbers were in Russia, South Korea, Turkey, and the UAE, with smaller numbers in Europe, North America, and elsewhere. A later Ministry report showed the same pattern, with Russia still dominant but alternatives clearly visible: of 126,000 Kazakh citizens employed abroad, 102,000 were in Russia, 15,000 in South Korea, and around 2,000 in the United Kingdom and European Union member states. Those leaving include economists, lawyers, technical specialists, teachers, and medical workers. Although outward labor migration remains limited compared with Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, or Tajikistan, it is adding to official concerns about the loss of qualified specialists. Officials believe Kazakhstan’s labor market is vulnerable to external competition, and a large share of those leaving have higher or technical vocational education. Salary gaps and differences in living standards make these destinations attractive. Qatar has recently joined the list of preferred destinations for labor migration. This has been made possible in large part by intergovernmental agreements signed between Qatar and Kazakhstan. Qatar is now actively recruiting Kazakh specialists, particularly in the oil and gas sector. According to Arman Shokparov, co-founder of People Consulting, around 600-700 Kazakh white-collar professionals currently work in Qatar. Nearly half work in the oil and gas sector, mainly in engineering and production roles. This trend does not mean Kazakhstan is only losing workers. It continues to attract immigrants and...

Switzerland Becomes Tajikistan’s Third-Largest Trading Partner

Switzerland became Tajikistan’s third-largest trading partner in the first five months of 2026, overtaking Kazakhstan and ranking behind only China and Russia, Avesta reported, citing Tajikistan’s statistics agency. Trade turnover between Tajikistan and Switzerland exceeded $1.013 billion between January and May, marking a sharp rise that pushed the country into the top three trading partners for the first time. The shift represents a significant change from 2025, when Kazakhstan held third place with trade turnover exceeding $1.19 billion, while trade with Switzerland totaled about $386.5 million, nearly half the 2024 level. In the first five months of 2026, Kazakhstan fell to fourth place with around $649 million in bilateral trade, while Switzerland moved up to third. Switzerland also became the leading destination for Tajik exports, accounting for 36.3% of the country’s total exports, or $508.2 million. China ranked second with a 25.7% share, followed by Turkey at 7.6%. China and Russia remain Tajikistan’s two largest trading partners overall. Trade with China reached nearly $1.44 billion during the reporting period, up 50% year-on-year, while trade with Russia rose 23.1% to $1.11 billion. In imports, China accounted for 24.7% of total inbound trade, followed by Russia at 24%, Kazakhstan at 13.8%, and Switzerland at 11.6%. Tajikistan’s total foreign trade turnover for January-May 2026 exceeded $5.7 billion, up 48.5% from the same period a year earlier. Imports accounted for nearly $4.37 billion, while exports totaled about $1.4 billion. The country’s main exports included mineral products, base metals and metal goods, textiles, and agricultural products. Imports were dominated by mineral products, machinery and equipment, metals, food products, and chemicals. The sharp increase in trade with Switzerland likely reflects the role of precious metals and other commodity-linked transactions in Tajikistan’s trade structure.