Tajikistan Business Economy - The Times Of Central Asia

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Regional Trade

Central Asia and Azerbaijan Discuss Trade Expansion at Turkmenistan Summit

The leaders of Central Asia and Azerbaijan met in Turkmenistan on October 8, with expanding trade between their countries high on the agenda. Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev called for trade among the six countries to rise to at least $20 billion, up from approximately $13 billion in 2025. The eighth Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State of Central Asia and Azerbaijan was held in the resort of Avaza, with Azerbaijan participating as a full member of the grouping for the first time. According to Tokayev, trade between the six countries accounted for just 8% of their combined trade turnover last year. He proposed that governments develop a joint action plan to increase that share. Other leaders put forward proposals for closer economic ties. Uzbekistan's President Shavkat Mirziyoyev called for greater cooperation in manufacturing and a Central Asia-Azerbaijan Business Forum in 2027, while Kyrgyzstan's President Sadyr Japarov proposed creating a shared e-commerce platform to make regional products more accessible. One problem is the insufficient integration of national markets. Even where countries share a border, trade is hampered by logistical constraints and differences in business operating conditions. Tokayev proposed bringing existing and planned cross-border trade and logistics complexes and industrial centers into a single network. The idea is to enable businesses from different countries to sell finished products to one another and produce them jointly. However, Kazakhstan's major transport projects are not designed solely for its neighbors. Astana is investing in railways and highways to increase freight transit between China, Central Asia, and Europe. The projects include the Moyynty–Kyzylzhar, Darbaza–Maktaaral, and Bakhty–Ayagoz railway lines, as well as the Aral–Caspian highway project. The Middle Corridor holds a particularly important place in these plans, running from China through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, and Georgia to Europe. It allows freight to bypass Russian territory and is viewed as an alternative to traditional northern routes. Kazakhstan is now proposing to explore linking the Middle Corridor with the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), a transport project through Armenia intended to connect mainland Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan. Plans for the route were outlined during talks in Washington in August 2025, and Armenia and the United States signed a framework agreement in June 2026. The route is to remain under Armenian sovereignty and jurisdiction. Astana has already established a technical group to assess its potential participation in TRIPP. For now, Tokayev is proposing that the integration of the two transport initiatives be discussed only at the expert level. At the Avaza summit, Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov emphasized the importance of developing North–South transport corridors alongside East–West routes. Turkmenistan also supports the eastern branch of the International North–South Transport Corridor, which connects Russia with Iran through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. However, an increase in freight traffic through Central Asia does not in itself mean that trade among its countries will grow. For that to happen, local producers need access to neighboring markets. The summit also addressed cooperation over shared water resources, with Tokayev proposing a regional framework...

How Central Asian Small Businesses Are Earning More From Local Products

For Ikhtiyor Alimov, finding foreign buyers was only part of the challenge. His dried-fruit business in northern Tajikistan also needed enough equipment to fill its orders. Alimov founded Mevai Zarrin in Isfara with eight workers and handmade machinery. Its processing capacity eventually reached 200 kilograms a day, but manual production limited further growth. With the support of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the company upgraded its equipment and packaging. It can now process 600–650 kilograms daily, according to the organization’s account of its development. “We were able to reduce our product waste by 20%,” Alimov said in UNDP’s regional account of the program. Across Central Asia, small producers face similar difficulties. Processing a harvest before selling it can increase producers’ earnings, but expansion requires investment that many family businesses struggle to afford. The Finland-funded Aid for Trade initiative, implemented by the UNDP, is closing after more than 15 years of work across Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. UNDP and Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of the Economy presented results in Bishkek on September 24, discussing which forms of support should continue beyond 2026. In Tajikistan, UNDP reported that the initiative helped create 147 jobs, including 90 for women since 2022. At Mevai Zarrin, support depended partly on buying fruit from local farmers and connecting producers in southern Tajikistan with processors in the north. The company signed contracts with ten farming households in Khatlon, securing supplies while giving growers another outlet for their harvests. Pooling smaller harvests can make deliveries large enough for a processor to buy. For farmers, those arrangements offer a route beyond nearby markets without requiring each household to become an exporter. Mevai Zarrin also obtained FSSC 22000 food safety certification to help it pursue new customers. In UNDP’s September profile, Alimov said the company had sent samples to prospective buyers in Germany and was awaiting their response. Processing the Harvest In Uzbekistan’s Andijan region, Dildora Nurmatova’s family business, ErElDi, has increased its profits by processing peanuts. Nurmatova began investigating the crop during her agricultural studies. By 2024, her enterprise was harvesting five metric tons from one hectare. According to UNDP’s regional retrospective, selling processed snacks rather than raw peanuts tripled her profits. [caption id="attachment_57615" align="aligncenter" width="1920"] Dildora Nurmatova in her peanut field in Uzbekistan’s Andijan region. Image: Elyor Nemat, UNDP Uzbekistan[/caption] Aid for Trade supplied processing and packaging equipment, alongside a separate workshop and a three-phase electricity connection. Business advice helped the family develop products and organize production. The company supplies packaged peanuts to Andijan’s wholesale market. Lower-grade kernels go into milled products for bakeries and ice-cream producers, giving the family a market for material that cannot be sold as premium snacks. ErElDi’s customers are close to home. The family can earn more from its harvest by doing the processing itself, before it considers the costs of finding buyers abroad. In Kyrgyzstan, UNDP reported that the project contributed to 837 new jobs, including 548 for women, and supported export contracts worth $17.1 million since 2022. [caption id="attachment_57610" align="aligncenter" width="2400"] Beekeepers...

Digital Policy

Central Asia Common Digital Space Proposed at Astana Roundtable

Experts and business representatives from across Central Asia have proposed mutual recognition of electronic documents to make cross-border business easier. Their draft agreement also calls for closer alignment of rules on data and artificial intelligence. The draft Agreement on Cooperation among Central Asian States in Digital Policy and Artificial Intelligence Governance was presented at a regional roundtable in Astana on September 28. The business-led proposal aims to connect the region’s five digital markets, serving more than 80 million people. The initiative is being developed within B5+1, a business cooperation platform linking the United States and the five Central Asian states and designed as a private sector counterpart to the diplomatic C5+1 format. E-commerce and information technology are among its priority areas. Over the past year, the regional IT & AI working group has held consultations with entrepreneurs, industry associations, and experts. In the previous cycle, consultations involved business communities representing more than 60 companies and organizations from Central Asia and the United States, including Meta, Mastercard, and Google. Under the draft, the five countries would retain their own regulations while making their digital systems and laws more compatible. It covers electronic document management, digital identification, personal data protection, cybersecurity, and AI regulation. The proposals would allow electronic documents, electronic signatures, and digital identification tools to be recognized across borders. This could reduce administrative barriers for companies expanding into neighboring markets. “Our task is not to create another layer of regulation. We need to build digital bridges between the countries of Central Asia. If electronic documents, digital identification, data rules, and approaches to AI are mutually compatible, it will become significantly easier for technology companies to scale across the entire region,” said Aziza Shuzheeva, Chair of the Board of the TechnoWomen non-profit organization. A draft Code of Ethics for the Responsible Use of Artificial Intelligence in Central Asia was also presented in Astana. The document is advisory and sets out common ethical principles for the use of AI across the five countries. Its authors propose that decisions significantly affecting a person’s rights and interests should not be left solely to algorithms. Practices identified as unacceptable include harmful manipulation, exploitation of the vulnerabilities of children and other groups, discrimination, unlawful use of personal data, and the creation of synthetic content for fraud or other harmful purposes. Another priority is the development of language resources and datasets for Kazakh, Kyrgyz, Uzbek, Tajik, and Turkmen. The aim is to improve the ability of AI systems to work with the region’s languages. Similar forms of digital integration are already being developed elsewhere. In the European Union, the European Digital Identity framework is designed to allow digital identity wallets to be used across borders to access public and private services. ASEAN, meanwhile, concluded negotiations at the end of May 2026 on its Digital Economy Framework Agreement, or DEFA, covering digital trade, data, cybersecurity, AI, and other areas of regional digital integration. The proposals also overlap with efforts to digitize transport and trade. On September 28, the...

C5+1

U.S. Links Trusted Digital Infrastructure to Investment at C5+1 Conference

Stronger cybersecurity and trusted digital infrastructure could encourage greater U.S. investment in Central Asia, Mark Cameron said in Astana on September 29. Cameron, deputy assistant secretary in the State Department’s Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs, was speaking at the C5+1 conference on artificial intelligence. He said data centers and trusted infrastructure would give American companies greater confidence to invest and expand their cooperation across the region. “The strongest house is built on the firmest foundation,” Cameron told reporters, linking cybersecurity to the development of advanced AI. Cameron said Washington sees private companies as central to the process, with government programs helping create conditions for investment and technological cooperation. “The United States has the deep belief that companies, given the opportunity, will find great solutions and new opportunities that many of us have never even considered before,” Cameron said. He said Washington has committed $5 million through CRDF Global for cybersecurity and digital-sector assistance. The support covers incident response, critical infrastructure protection, financial sector security, and cybersecurity policy. The C5+1 format brings together the United States and the five Central Asian countries. The conference comes ahead of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s planned business delegation to Uzbekistan in mid-October, involving executives from more than 100 American companies alongside talks with the region’s foreign ministers. Kazakhstan Sets Out Its AI Development Model Kazakhstan’s vice minister of artificial intelligence and digital development, Bakhtiyar Mukhametkaliyev, described the development of an AI economy as a five-layer process. Energy comes first, followed by access to chips and graphics processing units (GPUs), information systems, high-quality data, and finally AI agents. Countries that attempt to deploy AI agents before building the infrastructure and data beneath them, Mukhametkaliyev said, are unlikely to realize their full economic value. He also framed data centers as a way for Kazakhstan to convert its energy and resource base into higher-value digital capacity. Mukhametkaliyev stressed that Kazakhstan does not intend to build its emerging AI ecosystem solely for the domestic market. He said the infrastructure should also help neighboring countries develop their AI industries and improve connectivity. He also pointed to drones, space technologies, startups, and workforce reskilling as areas where digitalization could create new markets and occupations. Kazakhstan’s ties with U.S. technology companies are also expanding. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang is scheduled to make his first visit to Kazakhstan on October 23, as the country develops data centers and NVIDIA-based computing infrastructure. Regional Plans for AI Development Kyrgyzstan focused on practical AI applications, human oversight, education, and local-language models. Niyazaly Bazarbaev, adviser to the minister of digital development and innovative technologies, said Kyrgyz and other Central Asian languages remain insufficiently represented in existing AI systems. He discussed work involving a Kyrgyz-language corpus of roughly five million words and efforts to prepare the school curriculum for an AI-driven economy. Tajikistan presented AI as a presidential priority. Hakim Ismoilzoda, first deputy director of the Agency for Innovation and Digital Technologies, highlighted Tajikistan’s initiatives at the United Nations on AI and its safe, secure,...

Economic Growth

Central Asia Growth Forecasts Remain Strong in Latest ADB Outlook

Four of Central Asia’s five economies are expected to grow faster in 2026 than developing Asia and the Pacific as a whole, according to the Asian Development Bank’s September Asian Development Outlook. ADB forecasts growth of 5% across developing Asia and the Pacific this year, compared with 8.9% in Kyrgyzstan, 7% in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, and 6.3% in Turkmenistan. Kazakhstan is the exception, with growth forecast at 4.8%. Kyrgyzstan is growing faster than its neighbors but is also facing the highest inflation among the five countries. ADB forecasts inflation at 11.2% this year and 8.5% next year. Growth continues to be supported by domestic demand and sustained investment, while ADB says import dependence and electricity-generation shortfalls are contributing to inflationary pressures. For Uzbekistan, ADB forecasts gross domestic product growth of 7% and inflation of 6.7% in 2026. In 2027, the figures are expected to be 6.8% and 5%, respectively. Stronger-than-expected economic activity prompted ADB to upgrade Uzbekistan’s 2026 growth forecast in its September outlook. Tajikistan is also forecast to grow by 7% in 2026, with inflation at 4.5%. Growth is expected to slow to 6.8% in 2027, while inflation is forecast to edge up to 4.7%. ADB lowered its 2026 growth projection in September, saying the escalation of Russia’s war in Ukraine had disrupted fuel imports and constrained near-term economic activity. Kazakhstan, the region’s largest economy, is growing more slowly than its neighbors. ADB expects growth of 4.8% this year and 4.5% next year, with inflation forecast at 10.4% and 9.5%, respectively. The bank left its growth and inflation forecasts unchanged from its previous outlook, with inflation expected to ease only gradually. For Turkmenistan, ADB forecasts growth of 6.3% in 2026 and 6.2% in 2027, with inflation at 6% in both years. The country’s economic indicators remain more difficult to compare with those of its neighbors because of limited access to reliable and detailed economic data. Its economy also remains heavily dependent on natural gas exports, with China its main gas market. Central Asia’s growth figures look strong against the Asian backdrop, but ADB is warning of energy and climate risks across developing Asia and the Pacific. Prolonged disruption to global energy markets could keep oil and gas prices elevated and volatile. For energy importers, that means higher fuel costs and additional inflationary pressure, while hydrocarbon exporters may benefit from higher prices but remain vulnerable to disruption in production and export routes. Another risk is a very strong El Niño, which ADB expects to persist through the first quarter of 2027. Extreme weather could reduce agricultural production and push up food prices, while a decline in hydropower generation could increase demand for other energy sources. For Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, where hydropower supplies most electricity, weather and water availability add another layer of vulnerability. The differences between forecasts for the region remain substantial. In August, The Times of Central Asia compared projections from international financial institutions. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) forecast 2026 growth of 10.2% for Kyrgyzstan, 8.3% for Tajikistan,...

Lithuania Closures Highlight Limits of Central Asia’s Migration Shift Away From Russia

Lithuania will close external service provider centers that accept migration documents in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan on November 1. A day before the announcement, Lithuania’s Migration Department said external service centers in Central Asia had stopped accepting new applications from residents seeking to come to the country for work after receiving a very high volume of employment applications. Lithuania had also exhausted its annual quota for foreign workers earlier in September. Interior Minister Martynas Katelynas said the November 1 closures were prompted by security risks and the threat of terrorism. The centers act as intermediaries, accepting applications for Lithuanian residence permits and initiating migration procedures Lithuania’s State Security Department has previously reported identifying individual members of the Central Asian community with radical views or links to terrorism. In its annual threat assessment, the agency also said that Islamic State Khorasan Province, or ISIS-K, has been recruiting followers within Central Asian diaspora communities in Europe. However, the agency said it considers it unlikely that Lithuania itself will become a direct target for Islamist terrorists in the near term. The security decision comes as Lithuania has also reached its annual foreign-worker quota. The country set a quota of 24,706 foreign workers for 2026, which was officially declared exhausted on September 7. Once the quota is reached, a temporary residence permit based on employment remains available if the worker meets a higher salary threshold or belongs to certain high-value professions that are in shortage and meets the separate salary requirement for those professions. As of September 1, nearly 227,000 foreign nationals held valid residence permits in Lithuania. They included around 13,000 Uzbek citizens and 7,400 Tajik citizens. Demand for Lithuania has grown alongside broader interest in the European labor market. Between 2018 and 2024, the number of valid EU work permits held by Uzbek citizens increased roughly eightfold, those held by Kyrgyz citizens more than sevenfold, and those held by Tajik citizens more than fourteenfold. Poland has become one of the main destinations, Germany is expanding organized recruitment, and the UK has become an important source of seasonal work, while labor mobility programs are also emerging elsewhere in Europe. Conditions are also changing in Russia, which for decades has absorbed most of the region’s labor migrants. Following the March 2024 Crocus City Hall terrorist attack, the authorities tightened migration rules, expanded registration requirements, and introduced greater digital monitoring of foreign workers. In the first half of 2026, citizens of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan made around 1.9 million entries into Russia declaring work as the purpose of their trip, down from more than 2.3 million a year earlier. The decline does not mean that there is no longer dependence on the Russian labor market. In the first quarter of 2026, Russia accounted for 72.4% of cross-border remittances to Uzbekistan. In Kyrgyzstan, a March 2025 estimate put the number of citizens living abroad at roughly 600,000; around 380,000 were registered with Russian migration authorities at the end of 2024. For Central Asian migrants, European migration...