Tajikistan Business Economy - The Times Of Central Asia

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Green Energy

Tajikistan Accelerates Transition to Green Energy

Tajikistan has launched its largest solar energy initiative to date, marking a significant step in its transition to green energy. The project entails the construction of two photovoltaic power stations with a combined capacity of 500 MW, an unprecedented scale for the country’s energy sector. An investment agreement formalizing the project was signed on 13 January 2026 between the government of Tajikistan and Ayon Energy. The project will involve the development of two equally sized solar power plants: 250 MW in Asht District 250 MW in Jaihun District These new facilities are expected to play a crucial role in mitigating seasonal electricity shortages. Tajikistan, which relies heavily on hydropower, frequently faces deficits during the winter months. The introduction of solar generation capacity will ease pressure on existing hydroelectric resources, improving the reliability of electricity supply for both households and businesses. Ayon Energy has committed to completing the design, construction, and commissioning of the plants within 2026. The total investment is estimated at $250 million. In addition to this approved project, Tajikistan is also evaluating a potential 400 MW solar power plant in partnership with the UAE’s state-owned company Masdar.

News Round-Up

Recent Stories From Tajikistan That You May Have Missed

Hydropower strain returns as rationing tightens A dry autumn has translated into a difficult start to winter for Tajikistan’s electricity system, with renewed restrictions tied to low reservoir levels. A recent Reuters report on rationing described a drop in water levels feeding the country’s hydropower fleet, with the reservoir at Nurek, the backbone of generation, reported to be substantially below the same point last year. The measures announced go beyond household inconvenience: restrictions have been accompanied by reduced lighting and tighter electricity allocations for public institutions, while officials explore imports and balancing arrangements with neighbors. Rogun’s mitigation narrative hardens as oversight grows The Rogun hydropower project remains the long-term answer Dushanbe puts forward for these seasonal crunches, and also the project that draws the most intense international scrutiny. The Times of Central Asia’s coverage of Rogun’s environmental planning highlighted a shift in framing: a “no net loss” biodiversity approach, built around compensatory habitat restoration exceeding the estimated footprint of land losses. That messaging is designed to reassure lenders and stakeholders that the dam’s scale will be matched by formal safeguards, and to keep financing pathways open at a time when environmental and social governance has become central to major infrastructure underwriting. But “no net loss” is also an invitation for closer measurement, and criticism has increasingly focused on whether offsets can meaningfully address river-system impacts, not only terrestrial habitat. Advocacy briefs circulating around Rogun argue that aquatic biodiversity mitigation and downstream ecological risk remain the hardest pieces to quantify and enforce, especially on long timelines where implementation phases stretch years beyond core construction. In other words, Rogun’s external story is evolving: it is no longer only about generating electricity and exporting surplus. It is also about whether international standards can be applied credibly to a project of this size — and whether promised safeguards hold up under cross-border water politics and long-term monitoring. A border-security story triggers a rare media confrontation If energy is the long-term strategic theme, border security remains the most sensitive. That sensitivity spilled into public view after a Reuters dispatch on alleged Tajik–Russian border talks suggested Dushanbe was considering deeper cooperation with Moscow and the CSTO for monitoring the Afghan frontier. Tajikistan’s response was unusually direct. In a sharply worded statement reported by Eurasianet’s account of the dispute, the Foreign Ministry said the report “does not correspond to reality” and insisted the border situation was under national control. Shortly afterwards, The Times of Central Asia’s report on Reuters withdrawing the story underscored how rare it is for a major international outlet to retract a piece following an official denial in the region. For Western governments, the episode illustrates how the Afghan border remains a geopolitical pressure valve, and how carefully Dushanbe manages the optics of any foreign military footprint, particularly at a time when Russia’s regional role is politically charged and China’s security profile is rising. Land degradation moves from “environmental” to “economic risk” Finally, an issue that has long sat in the “environment” column is...

Energy Sector

Tajikistan Plans $6.5 Billion Investment in Energy Sector

Tajikistan will require approximately $6.5 billion to implement its 2026-2030 Energy Sector Development Program, with funding expected from a combination of external and internal sources, including international partners and the state budget. Planned funding sources include: Development partners: $3.94 billion Private investment: $2.56 billion The state budget, primarily to finance the ongoing construction of the Rogun Hydropower Plant (HPP), which is supported annually through a dedicated budget line. In 2025 alone, more than $970 million was allocated from the state budget to the Rogun project, accounting for roughly 20% of all approved treasury expenditures. Support for Tajikistan’s fuel and energy complex remains one of the top budgetary priorities. The draft state budget for 2026 earmarks $1.61 billion for the sector, equivalent to 22.4% of total planned expenditures. The program will primarily focus on large-scale hydropower development. In parallel, the government aims to expand renewable energy capacity. Solar power plants with a combined capacity of 1.5 GW are planned for construction in the Sughd and Khatlon regions. Authorities also plan to explore the potential for wind energy. Another key objective is increasing electricity exports and contributing to frequency regulation within Central Asia’s regional power networks. Achieving this will require infrastructure upgrades, including construction of the Rogun-Saihun 500 kV transmission line and the modernization of existing substations. Domestically, the program calls for the replacement of outdated equipment, renovation of distribution networks, and the installation of smart meters to enhance energy reliability and efficiency.

Banking

ADB Provides Tajik Bank with First Direct Loan of $10 Million

Bank Eskhata OJSC (Open Joint-Stock Company) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) have signed a direct lending agreement, marking a new stage in financing for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Tajikistan. This is the first time the ADB has issued a direct loan to a Tajik bank, bypassing intermediary financial institutions. The ADB stated that the format reflects a high level of trust in the partner bank and confidence in its stability within the national financial market. Tajikistan has been a member of the ADB since 1998. Under the terms of the agreement, the ADB is providing a loan in local currency equivalent to $10 million. The funds are intended to support entrepreneurs implementing environmentally friendly and energy-efficient technologies, as well as projects that reduce environmental impact and contribute to building a sustainable economy. Akmaljon Saifidinov, CEO of Bank Eskhata, described the agreement as strategically important. “We are honored to be the first financial institution in Tajikistan to receive direct lending from the ADB. This landmark event opens new horizons for supporting MSMEs and advancing green finance,” he said, referring to micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises. He added that the partnership with the ADB further strengthens the bank’s role as a leader in innovative financial solutions. The ADB expects the direct lending mechanism to significantly improve access to financing for businesses. “Direct lending will significantly expand enterprises’ access to financing and serve as a key stimulus for the development of green initiatives in Tajikistan,” said Ko Sakamoto, head of the ADB office in Dushanbe. The loan is expected to support projects in energy efficiency, green technologies, and sustainable business models, areas that have traditionally lacked access to long-term financing. In a separate initiative, the ADB recently approved a $3 million grant to enhance Tajikistan’s capacity for glacier monitoring and natural disaster forecasting. The project includes the creation of a unified digital system for analyzing risks related to snow and ice melt and aims to improve public safety in mountainous regions.

Tokyo Declaration

Japan and Central Asia Enter a New Era of Strategic Partnership

On December 20, the first summit of Central Asian and Japanese leaders (CA+JAD) was held in Tokyo. The Tokyo Declaration, an ambitious roadmap for future cooperation, was adopted during the summit. It aims to transform relations between Japan and the five Central Asian countries into a deep and multifaceted strategic partnership. New Paths for the Region Japan intends to invest about $20 billion in business projects across Central Asia over the next five years. Priority areas for cooperation include environmental initiatives, and the transition to carbon neutrality in the energy sector. Additional areas include developing supply chains for key minerals, disaster risk reduction, and earthquake preparedness. Projects in agriculture and logistics, particularly improvements along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, were also discussed. Other topics covered included launching direct flights between Japan and Central Asia, advancing cooperation in digital technologies and artificial intelligence, and expanding scholarships and training programs. Attendees included Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi; Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev; Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov; Tajik President Emomali Rahmon; Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov; and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. The second Central Asia-Japan summit is scheduled to take place in Kazakhstan, in line with the agreed English alphabetical rotation. Turkmenistan: Petrochemical Cooperation President Serdar Berdymuhamedov met with representatives of major Japanese corporations, including Sumitomo, Toyo Engineering, Muroosystems, Itochu, Argonavt, Mitsubishi, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, and Tokyo Boeki Eurasia. He cited several successful Japanese-led projects in Turkmenistan, such as waste processing plants, a wastewater treatment initiative for industrial reuse, PET plastic recycling, and e-waste processing to reduce hazardous materials. New memorandums were signed between Turkmen and Japanese entities. Key among them: an agreement involving the state-owned concern Turkmenhimiya, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Mitsubishi Corporation, and Gap Inşaat on building a urea plant in the Balkan region with a capacity of 1.155 million tons per year. Turkmenhimiya also signed an agreement with Kawasaki Heavy Industries to extend maintenance for the Akhal gas-to-gasoline plant. In addition, a cooperation deal was reached with Toyo Engineering and Turkey’s Rönesans Endüstri for the second phase of the Kiyanly polymer plant. Other memoranda included partnerships between the Ministry of Automobile Transport of Turkmenistan and Sumitomo Corporation, TurkmenGas and Sumitomo Europe, and the Ministry of Communications and Mitsubishi Corporation Machinery, focusing on artificial intelligence and digital technologies. Agreements were also signed with media outlets, banks, and universities. Diplomatic ties between Japan and Turkmenistan were established in 1992. The Japanese Embassy opened in Ashgabat in 2005, and the Turkmen Embassy in Tokyo followed in 2013. Japan also plays a vital role in Turkmenistan’s export of polypropylene. Japanese firms Kawasaki and Sojits helped construct a fertilizer complex in the town of Mary, while Itochu and Day Nippon were involved in modernizing the national railway’s IT systems. Kyrgyzstan: Energy and Education Ties President Sadyr Japarov oversaw the signing of bilateral agreements spanning exports, energy, healthcare, education, tourism, agribusiness, and digital development. Agreements included a roadmap between Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Energy and MurooSystems for a small hydropower plant on the Chon-Kemin River and various education-related memorandums with...

Macroeconomic Review

EDB Forecasts Strong Economic Growth in 2026 for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan

On December 18, the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) published its Macroeconomic Outlook for 2026-2028, reviewing recent economic developments and offering projections for its seven member states: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. According to the report, aggregate GDP growth across the EDB region is forecast to reach 2.3% in 2026. Kyrgyzstan (9.3%), Tajikistan (8.1%), Uzbekistan (6.8%), and Kazakhstan (5.5%) are expected to remain the region’s fastest-growing economies. After two years of rapid expansion, the region’s GDP growth is set to moderate to 1.9% in 2025, down from 4.5% in 2024, mainly due to a slowdown in Russia’s economy. Although lower oil prices are expected to reduce export revenues for energy exporters such as Kazakhstan and Russia, the impact on overall growth will be limited. Meanwhile, net oil importers, including Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, will benefit from improved terms of trade and reduced inflationary pressure. High global gold prices will support foreign exchange earnings for key regional exporters, including Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The report also notes a gradual decline in the U.S. dollar’s share in central bank reserves across the region, though its role in international settlements remains stable. Kazakhstan Kazakhstan’s economy is projected to grow by 5.5% in 2026, supported by the implementation of the National Infrastructure Plan and the state program “Order for Investment,” which are expected to cushion the effects of lower oil prices. Growth in non-commodity exports will also play a stabilizing role. Inflation is forecast to decline to 9.7% by the end of 2026, after peaking early in the year due to a value-added tax (VAT) increase. The average tenge exchange rate is expected to be KZT 535 per U.S. dollar, underpinned by a high base interest rate and rising export revenues. Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyzstan is forecast to lead the region in GDP growth at 9.3% in 2026, driven by higher investment in transport, energy, water infrastructure, and housing construction. Inflation is expected to ease to 8.3%, although further declines will be constrained by higher tariffs and excise taxes. The average exchange rate is projected at KGS 89.2 per U.S. dollar, supported by robust remittance inflows and high global gold prices, gold being the country’s main export commodity. Tajikistan Tajikistan is projected to maintain high GDP growth of 8.1% in 2026, fueled by capacity expansion in the energy and manufacturing sectors, along with rising prices for gold and non-ferrous metals. Inflation is expected to reach 4.5% by year-end. The somoni is expected to remain stable, with an average exchange rate of TJS 9.8 per U.S. dollar, supported by growth in exports and remittances. Uzbekistan Uzbekistan’s economy is forecast to expand by 6.8% in 2026, sustained by strong investment activity and favorable gold prices. Inflation is projected to decline to 6.7%, helped by tight monetary policy and a stable exchange rate. The average soum exchange rate is expected to be UZS 12,800 per U.S. dollar, supported by high remittances and increased metal exports.