Tajikistan Business Economy - The Times Of Central Asia

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Electricity Shortages

Tajikistan Prepares for Another Winter Power Shortfall

Tajikistan is preparing for another autumn and winter in which electricity demand may outstrip supply. Network losses have fallen, and investment in hydropower continues, but officials say the seasonal imbalance between generation and consumption will persist. Mahmadumar Asozoda, chairman of state-owned power company Barki Tojik, said the imbalance would persist through the colder months. Asked whether electricity rationing would return, he did not rule it out. Tajikistan generates almost all of its electricity from hydropower, leaving supply tied to seasonal river flows. Output rises during the warmer months, when the country can meet domestic demand and export surplus electricity. In winter, river flows decline as electricity use increases for heating, creating a recurring shortfall. To cover part of the winter shortfall, Tajikistan plans to import electricity from Uzbekistan again. The two countries use a seasonal exchange: Uzbekistan supplies power in autumn and winter, and Tajikistan returns an equivalent volume during summer. Tajikistan imported 306 million kilowatt-hours (kWh) last winter, down from 350 million kWh a year earlier. Asozoda said the countries expect to sign a new agreement before the next autumn-winter season. Imports can ease the shortage, but they do not remove Tajikistan's dependence on hydropower or the winter drop in output. The seasonal arrangement with Uzbekistan gives Tajikistan access to power when domestic generation is lowest. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan has signed a 20-year agreement to buy electricity from Tajikistan. Deliveries are expected to depend on additional generating capacity at the Rogun Hydropower Plant. The Nurek Reservoir stood at 888.21 meters on July 13, but Energy and Water Resources Minister Daler Juma said Tajikistan was experiencing low water levels. The country has reduced electricity exports and is retaining more water in its reservoirs for winter. Losses in the electricity system fell during the first half of 2026. At Barki Tojik's generating facilities, losses were 0.32% of output, down 0.07 percentage points from a year earlier. Losses in high-voltage transmission networks fell to 2.96%, while distribution losses dropped from 17.93% to 12.42%. Barki Tojik generated 8.89 billion kWh during the period, 2.7 million kWh less than in the first half of 2025. Hydropower plants supplied 7.93 billion kWh, while thermal plants produced 964 million kWh. The utility also bought 2.7 billion kWh from independent producers in Tajikistan and abroad, with Sangtuda-1 supplying 1.48 billion kWh. Rogun and Sangtuda-2 supplied 667.2 million kWh and 474.2 million kWh, respectively. Demand continues to rise as Tajikistan's population grows and industrial production expands, President Emomali Rahmon said in December 2025. The World Bank expects Rogun to help meet domestic needs and reduce recurring winter cuts. Rahmon has said rationing should end in 2027, when the third generating unit is scheduled to enter service, although the World Bank projects full completion in 2033. For the coming winter, Tajikistan is conserving reservoir water and arranging imports from Uzbekistan, but Asozoda's comments leave open the possibility of renewed rationing.

Critical Minerals

Tajikistan Lithium Project Planned at Namadgut Deposit

Tajikistan plans to launch a lithium mining project at the Namadgut deposit in the Ishkashim district of the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region within the next year, according to Minister of Industry and New Technologies Sherali Kabir. Around 80% of the equipment required for the project has already been delivered to Tajikistan, while substantial geological exploration has been carried out at the deposit. That said, the government has not disclosed the size or grade of its lithium reserves, nor the project’s expected output or cost. The Namadgut deposit also contains niobium, tantalum, and beryllium, in addition to lithium, according to Kabir. Niobium is mainly used to strengthen steel and in heat-resistant alloys for aircraft engines and other high-temperature equipment. Tantalum is used in compact electronic capacitors, including those found in phones and computers, as well as in aircraft-engine alloys. Beryllium is used in lightweight, high-strength components for the aerospace, electronics, and nuclear industries. Although global lithium prices recovered from their 2025 lows during early 2026, they remain around 70% below their 2022 peak. Kabir acknowledged that this fall in prices but argued that the presence of other valuable metals, whose prices may be more stable, could improve the project’s commercial prospects. The minister also believes that developing Tajikistan’s lithium industry could help attract major international companies involved in electric vehicle and battery production. “An electric vehicle requires aluminum for the body, copper for the wiring, and lithium batteries as a key component. We have these resources,” Kabir said. According to the minister, the development of lithium production could create opportunities for Tajikistan to establish higher value-added industries rather than limiting itself to raw-material exports. The Namadgut project forms part of a broader effort to develop Tajikistan’s critical-minerals sector. In 2024, officials reported the discovery of 15 new deposits of rare metals, including lithium, according to Mukhtor Fozilzoda, head of the geology department at Tajikistan’s Main Directorate of Geology. The deposits were identified in remote eastern areas, including Karasu, Agbasoy, Payron, and Rokhshif. Despite difficult terrain and harsh natural conditions, officials say advances in exploration technology have made it possible to study these regions more effectively. Fozilzoda said the discoveries could support the expansion of the mining industry, create jobs, and provide raw materials for battery manufacturing and other high-technology sectors. Kabir previously said Tajikistan intended to become the first country in the Commonwealth of Independent States to establish lithium production. According to the minister, Tajikistan possesses reserves of 10 of the 12 metals considered critical for the global green transition, with six already being produced domestically. Critical minerals are essential for renewable-energy technologies, including solar and wind power systems, electric vehicles, and battery storage. Kabir added that during the Soviet period, only three enterprises produced what he described as rare-earth metals, two of which were located in Tajikistan. Public accounts more clearly document Tajikistan’s Soviet-era role in uranium and broader rare-metal processing, particularly at the Leninabad Mining and Chemical Combine, now known as Vostokredmet. The government is now negotiating with international companies on...

Energy Security

Russian Fuel Shortages Revive Tajikistan’s Search for Oil and Gas

On July 10, Tajikistan’s Energy Minister Daler Juma said the country had enough fuel to last two more months. This situation is due to Tajikistan’s dependence on Russian petroleum products, which are in short supply in Russia itself because of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries. Located in the southeast corner of Central Asia and ringed by mountains on three sides, Tajikistan has few options to replace those Russian supplies, so the Tajik authorities are preparing to try again to find domestic hydrocarbon supplies. Looking to Strike Oil at Home Estimates of the share of Tajikistan’s petroleum imports supplied by Russia range from 70% to 80%. Tajikistan’s head of civil aviation, Habibullo Nazarzoda, said on July 9 that his country is facing shortages of airplane fuel and is in talks with Turkmenistan. Russia has a prohibition on exporting aviation kerosene that runs from June 1 to November 30. Tajikistan does have hydropower and coal, but neither one of those helps with shortages at petrol stations, and much of the internal transport of people and goods in mountainous Tajikistan is done via the road network. So, Tajikistan is again looking at the potential to develop domestic hydrocarbon fields, this time with the help solely of the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). On July 7, the head of the Tajik government’s Geological Department, Ilhom Oymuhammadzoda, said CNPC was already carrying out exploration at several potential hydrocarbon deposits in Tajikistan. “I think [CNPC] will present a progress report on the seismic survey operations by the end of the year,” Oymuhammadzoda told a press conference in Dushanbe. He named the Tajik Depression, in southwestern Tajikistan, and the Ferghana Basin, in northwestern Tajikistan, as two of the more promising sites. However, Oymuhammadzoda indicated that work in northern Tajikistan could require drilling down to a depth of 7,000 meters. Tajikistan’s Search for Oil and Gas Past studies of Tajikistan’s potential oil and gas fields point especially to the southwest of the country as a logical place to seek these hydrocarbons. Southwest Tajikistan is adjacent to gas and oil fields in southern Uzbekistan that have been producing for decades, to fields in northern Afghanistan, where exploration has confirmed commercial flows, and not too far east from the giant gas fields in Turkmenistan. Looking at a map, it seems logical that southwest Tajikistan is part of this same hydrocarbon structure. In 2008, Canadian company Tethys started exploring the Bokhtar area about 100 kilometers south of Dushanbe. Tethys found both oil and gas in the area. In 2012, the Canadian company estimated the area’s gross prospective resources at 8.5 billion barrels of oil and condensate and 3.22 trillion cubic metres of gas. For a small country like Tajikistan, it was potentially enormous, although these resources remained unconfirmed and commercially unproven. However, getting to that oil and gas required drilling wells that were 3,500 meters or deeper, which greatly added to production costs. In 2013, Gazprom International drilled a well at the Sarykamysh field in southwest Tajikistan that was...

Fuel Shortages

Tajikistan Offers Farmers Subsidized Diesel as Fuel Shortages Deepen

Tajikistan’s Ministry of Agriculture says farmers will be able to purchase diesel at a subsidized price of approximately $1.20 per liter through the Agency for State Material Reserves as fuel shortages intensify across the country. Speaking at a press conference on July 9, First Deputy Agriculture Minister Nurali Asozoda acknowledged that fuel supplies remained under pressure throughout the region. Tajikistan imports most of its petroleum products and liquefied gas from Russia, leaving it vulnerable to disruptions in the Russian fuel market. According to Asozoda, the agency is selling diesel to agricultural producers for about $1.20 per liter, while AI-92 gasoline is available for approximately $0.99 per liter. Commercial filling stations are charging considerably more. Diesel prices have risen to around $1.40-1.66 per liter, while some stations have reported shortages. Asozoda added that the lower prices apply only to fuel distributed through the agency. He said reserve stocks were available in several regions and that agricultural producers could apply to buy fuel. In some cases, farms may also receive diesel on deferred-payment terms to allow them to complete the harvest. Deputy Agriculture Minister Bahrom Ahmadzada said the ministry had submitted proposals to the government in May to support farmers affected by the shortage. One proposal would establish dedicated fuel distribution points operated by the agency in rural districts. The initiative is currently under government review. Authorities are also seeking to diversify Tajikistan’s fuel imports. According to Ahmadzoda, negotiations are underway with Iran, Iraq, Azerbaijan, and Saudi Arabia. He said an agreement had already been reached to import 10,000 tons of fuel from Iraq, while discussions with Azerbaijan and Saudi Arabia were also progressing. The ministry said it was monitoring the fuel situation daily in coordination with the agency and other government bodies. The shortage became more visible in early July, when several filling stations in Dushanbe ran out of diesel. Others limited sales to 20 liters per vehicle. The supply squeeze is particularly serious for agriculture. Farmers rely on diesel to harvest crops, transport produce, and prepare fields for the next planting season. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, fuel shortages are spreading across Central Asia. The pressure has affected gasoline and diesel supplies, along with jet fuel, natural gas, coal, and electricity planning. Seasonal fuel pressure is common, but this year’s shortages have appeared unusually early. They are closely linked to disruptions in Russia, the main fuel supplier for much of the region.

Energy Security

Central Asia’s Fuel Squeeze Becomes a Winter Energy Security Problem

Central Asia’s fuel squeeze is moving from filling stations into winter planning. Governments are now tracking gasoline and diesel, gas pipelines, coal deliveries, power imports, jet fuel, and emergency repair crews. Seasonal fuel and power stress is familiar across the region, but the current pressure - tied to Russia, the main supplier for several regional fuel flows - has arrived early. Russia’s own fuel crisis has sharpened the risk. Ukrainian drone attacks and repair work have cut refinery output, while export limits have pushed more Russian supplies back into the domestic market. Reuters reported queues, regional restrictions, and gasoline above 100 roubles a liter at some independent stations. President Vladimir Putin acknowledged the strain on June 28. “You are well aware that problems for drivers and for businesses persist,” he said, adding that “the harvest depends on” keeping seasonal fuel schedules for farms. For Central Asia, Russian shortages travel through contracts, rail slots, import prices, and public nerves. Kyrgyzstan is among the most exposed. The country consumes about two million tons of fuels and lubricants each year, and almost 95% comes from Russia, according to Deputy Energy Minister Nasipbek Kerimov. “Due to the lack of adequate oil and gas production, we remain a country dependent on imports,” Kerimov said. Bishkek has asked Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan for help securing supplies. That dependence is now impacting households, farmers, and small transport firms. The cabinet has capped pump prices and set a subsidy mechanism through September 30. Kerimov said importers were seeing offers at several prices, but promised that “there should be no shortage on the domestic market.” Oil traders put AI-92 stocks at 30 to 45 days, while diesel remained available for harvest work. Kyrgyzstan is trying to buy time through domestic refining. The modernized Junda refinery in the Chuy Region has been pressed to raise gasoline output to 24,000 tons a month soon, then 50,000 tons a month by the end of 2026, with finished products directed to the domestic market. Those gains would help, but Russian supply still sets the pace. Uzbekistan has the Bukhara and Fergana oil refineries, the Altyaryk unit of the Fergana refinery, and the Uzbekistan GTL complex, but demand has still moved faster than domestic supply. In January-April 2026, gasoline imports reached 568,700 tons, worth $327.1 million, more than double the same period in 2025. Local refineries produced 417,500 tons over those four months. A shift away from AI-80 gasoline has also pushed drivers toward AI-92 and AI-95. The pressure reached the exchange in late June. AI-92 gasoline climbed to a record 13.919 million soums per ton on June 29, about $1,160, after an 11.8% rise since the start of the month. Jet fuel has become an issue, too. Uzbekistan Airways reduced some Russia flight frequencies in June, citing aviation fuel shortages and higher costs. Tashkent is now preparing for winter in concrete volumes. On July 6, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev reviewed measures for the 2026-2027 autumn-winter season. The plan includes replacing 53.7...

Rogun Hydropower Plant

World Bank Approves New $300 Million Grant for Tajikistan’s Rogun Hydropower Project

The World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors has approved a second phase of financing for Tajikistan’s Rogun Hydropower Plant, providing a $300 million grant to support construction of what is expected to become the largest power station in Central Asia. According to the World Bank, the new funding from the International Development Association will finance civil works, electromechanical equipment for electricity generation, project implementation support, and environmental and social measures, including resettlement assistance and livelihood restoration for affected households. The financing will also support reservoir monitoring, forecasting systems, and flood-risk management for downstream communities. The Rogun project is expected to generate 14,400 gigawatt-hours of renewable electricity annually, equivalent to roughly 60% of Tajikistan’s current electricity generation. The World Bank said the plant will help reduce the country’s chronic winter electricity shortages, improve access to reliable power for around 10 million people, create more than 30,000 direct and indirect jobs, and enable electricity exports to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. “In addition to reducing chronic power shortages, increased access to reliable electricity from the Rogun HPP will help power economic transformation and create jobs in Tajikistan,” said Najy Benhassine, the World Bank’s director for Central Asia. “By increasing the supply of clean electricity, this transformational project will help power homes, businesses, and public services, creating employment opportunities in the country.” The World Bank also said increased electricity exports would strengthen regional energy trade. “By facilitating electricity exports, the Rogun HPP will help revitalize the regional power market, allowing Central Asian countries to use their energy assets more efficiently,” said Charles Cormier, the bank’s director for infrastructure in Europe and Central Asia. “Enhanced regional connectivity is expected to reduce supply constraints in the region and contribute to improved reliability and energy security.” At the request of the government of Tajikistan, the World Bank is coordinating international support for the project through the Rogun Coordination Group. The group includes development partners that have approved or expressed interest in supporting the project, including the Asian Development Bank, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, European Investment Bank, Islamic Development Bank, OPEC Fund, and several Gulf-based development funds. The latest financing comes as the project continues to face environmental scrutiny. Last year, The Times of Central Asia reported that the World Bank’s Inspection Panel had registered and reviewed a complaint concerning the bank’s involvement in the Rogun project. The complaint was submitted by the environmental coalition Rivers Without Boundaries on behalf of communities living downstream in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. The complainants argued that the project’s environmental and social assessments were outdated and did not fully evaluate potential downstream impacts. Environmental groups warned that filling the Rogun reservoir could reduce water flow to the Amu Darya delta, potentially accelerating desertification, increasing soil salinity, and affecting livelihoods in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. In November 2025, environmental groups criticized the World Bank Board after it declined to authorize a full investigation, despite an Inspection Panel recommendation for a comprehensive review. The World Bank has said the project is subject to environmental and social safeguards,...