Tajikistan Business Economy - The Times Of Central Asia

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Tourism

Tajikistan’s Panjakent Aims to Build Its Tourism Industry

The area around Panjakent in western Tajikistan has ancient ruins, including a UNESCO World Heritage site, as well as picturesque landscapes that have attracted more than 41,000 tourists so far this year. However, the area faces obstacles to development of its tourist industry, including rough roads that make it difficult for visitors to move around. Panjakent city is about 60 kilometers from Samarkand, an ancient city across the border in Uzbekistan whose spectacular cultural heritage makes it one of Central Asia’s major tourist draws. While the Panjakent region has a history extending back thousands of years, it has attracted relatively little international attention as Tajikistan takes steps to build up its tourism infrastructure. More than 41,000 tourists from many countries visited Panjakent in the first nine months of 2026, city officials said, according to Tajikistan’s state news agency Khovar. The city says the area has more than 300 historical monuments in addition to several major sites, including UNESCO-designated Sarazm, whose archaeology traces the development of human settlements in Central Asia from the fourth millennium BCE to the end of the third millennium BCE. Sarazm also provides evidence of trade and cultural ties among societies over a vast area “extending from the steppes of Central Asia and Turkmenistan, to the Iranian plateau, the Indus valley and as far as the Indian Ocean,” UNESCO has said. The U.N. cultural agency said the “proto-urban” site of Sarazm was a major regional center in the working of tin, copper, and other metals, and “is one of the places that gave birth to and saw the development of the major trans-Eurasian trade routes.” The tourism industry has been growing in Panjakent, which now has 24 travel companies, 11 “modern” hotels, 22 guest houses, and numerous restaurants and cafes, according to the city. It also said that a climbing base in the Kuli Kalon area outside Panjakent, which dates from the era of the Soviet Union, is still operating. The Khovar news agency reported that some problems are holding up further development of tourism in Panjakent, including a rough road on the 30-kilometer stretch between the villages of Ruknobod and Artuch. “Every year, tourists pass this road with difficulty,” Khovar reported. The agency also said that the tomb of Abu Abdullah Rudaki, regarded as a founder of Tajik-Persian classical poetry, needs significant repairs. Rudaki was born in Panjrud village near Panjakent and spent many years as a court poet in the Samanid capital of Bukhara. He is believed to have died around 941. While Rudaki is said to have been prolific as a poet, most of his work has been lost.

Telecommunications

Tajikistan Internet Link to China Launched Through the Pamirs

Tajikistan has opened a direct internet route to China through the high-altitude Pamir Mountains. The new fiber-optic link, with an initial capacity of up to 1 terabit per second (Tbps), gives the country another connection to international communications networks and reduces its dependence on transit through neighboring countries. The connection, built by state-owned Tajiktelecom and China Mobile International, was officially launched on October 17. The route runs from Dushanbe through Khorog, Kulma, and Karasu to Beijing. The Tajik section stretches 1,010 kilometers, including 435 kilometers through the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region. At Kulma Pass, more than 4,300 meters above sea level, the cable connects to China's network. In July 2026, Isfandiyor Sadullo, head of Tajikistan's Communications Service, said the international internet bandwidth available to the country had reached 500 gigabits per second (Gbps), double the level of the previous year. Plans call for increasing the new link's capacity tenfold. The connection always gives Tajiktelecom access to HKIX, a Hong Kong hub where international providers exchange internet traffic. This could give users and businesses in Tajikistan more direct access to overseas websites and services. Tajikistan also hopes the new connection will attract investment in data centers and cloud services, drawing on the country's hydropower resources. The launch comes just two days after Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan inaugurated a fiber-optic cable across the Caspian seabed. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, the approximately 380-kilometer link connects Aktau and Sumgait, providing an alternative route between Central Asia and the South Caucasus that bypasses Russian networks.

Growth Forecasts

Central Asia Economic Growth Expected to Slow in 2027

After several years of rapid expansion, Central Asian economies are expected to lose some momentum. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts that regional economic growth will slow from 5.8% in 2026 to 5.3% in 2027. However, growth in manufacturing and construction will not necessarily translate into comparable increases in household incomes. The forecast appears in the EBRD’s September report. The bank’s Central Asia figures also include Mongolia, so the regional growth rate should not be interpreted as an average for the five Central Asian countries alone. The Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD) has published its own projections for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. They differ somewhat from the EBRD’s forecasts but also anticipate continued economic growth. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan Maintain Strong Growth The EBRD expects the economies of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to grow by 7% in 2027, the highest rates projected for the five countries in the region. Kyrgyzstan has experienced a construction boom in recent years, driven by investment in roads, housing, and energy infrastructure. The service sector is also expanding. The country’s economy grew by 11.9% in the first half of 2026. However, rapid growth has been accompanied by rising food and fuel prices. The country's performance is closely tied to economic conditions in Russia, where a significant number of Kyrgyz migrant workers are employed and from which Kyrgyzstan imports the vast majority of its fuel. Changes in the Russian labor market can affect remittances and household spending in Kyrgyzstan. In Tajikistan, growth is supported by investment and exports, particularly precious metals and mineral resources. The economy expanded by 8.2% in the first half of 2026. Tajikistan also relies heavily on imported goods and equipment, with spending on imports exceeding export earnings. Remittances from migrant workers in Russia are an even more important source of household income for Tajiks than for their Kyrgyz neighbors, while rising fuel costs are putting additional pressure on family budgets. Kazakhstan Remains Dependent on Oil Exports For Central Asia’s largest economy, the EBRD forecasts growth of 4.5% in 2027, while the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development expects 5%. In 2026, Kazakhstan’s economy has been constrained by disruptions to oil production and exports. Problems arose at the Tengiz oil field and along the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) export route, through which a significant share of Kazakhstan’s oil reaches global markets via Russia. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s factories increased production. But even growth in industries outside the oil sector has yet to eliminate the country’s dependence on commodity exports. For international buyers, the reliability of supply routes is also important. Disruptions to the CPC can restrict Kazakhstan’s oil exports regardless of demand or global prices. The Times of Central Asia recently examined the challenges facing Kazakhstan’s oil logistics. Inflation is another concern. According to the EFSD, prices in Kazakhstan are expected to rise by approximately 9.5% by the end of 2026. This means economic expansion will not necessarily be accompanied by a noticeable improvement in household purchasing power. Uzbekistan’s Growth Driven by...

Airline Expansion

Tajikistan’s Shohin Airlines Unveils First Plane

Shohin Airlines, a new private airline in Tajikistan that says it has regional ambitions, recently unveiled the first fixed-wing aircraft in its fleet and also signed an agreement under which its staff will study at the Turkish Airlines Flight Academy in Turkey. The memorandum of understanding with Turkish Airlines provides for academy training for flight and ground personnel from Shohin Airlines, the Tajik airline said this week. Shohin Airlines described the agreement as an important step in the professional development of its employees. Earlier this month, Shohin Airlines unveiled an L 410 NG turboprop aircraft as part of a plan to develop regional passenger service, including in the mountainous terrain that covers much of Tajikistan. The L 410 NG is the latest model of the L 410 aircraft family developed by Czech firm Aircraft Industries. Representatives of Tajikistan’s Civil Aviation Agency attended the unveiling. The agency said the L 410 NG can operate on relatively short runways, which it described as a “crucial capability for local airports in the mountainous regions of Tajikistan.” Shohin Airlines, which was established last year, has flown the new aircraft from Dushanbe, the capital, to Khorog, capital of the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region in southeastern Tajikistan. Previously, the airline’s operations had consisted of helicopter flights. Shohin Airlines has said it will acquire four planes from the Airbus A320neo line of aircraft, reflecting plans for a significant expansion into commercial passenger traffic. However, delivery plans for the Airbus aircraft have yet to be announced. The airline’s plans to grow coincide with an effort by the Tajik government to expand the country’s role in regional and international aviation. As part of that project, the government introduced an “Open Skies” policy last year that lifted many market restrictions in an effort to generate competition and improve service.

Innovation Rankings

Central Asia in the Global Innovation Rankings: Supercomputers, Engineers, and the Economics of Government Ambitions

In the Global Innovation Index (GII), published on September 29 by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), Kazakhstan climbed eight places to rank 73rd among 139 economies. Uzbekistan ranked 77th and Kyrgyzstan 92nd. Tajikistan placed 112th, while Turkmenistan was not included in the study. The overall rankings, however, conceal some interesting details. Uzbekistan ranks second worldwide in the share of graduates in science and engineering. Kyrgyzstan ranks second in labor productivity growth, while Tajikistan leads in utility model applications relative to the size of its economy. Utility models are a simpler form of patent protection, usually for smaller inventions. Such strong results in individual indicators stand in contrast to the countries' relatively modest overall rankings. Part of the explanation lies in the study's methodology. WIPO evaluates education and scientific capacity alongside infrastructure and investment. It also considers business activity and research output. A country may train large numbers of engineers or register technical innovations while lagging in research output and investment, with limited commercial activity. For Central Asia, the rankings also offer a way to compare economic performance with the scale of governments' technological ambitions. Kazakhstan: Supercomputers in Search of Customers In recent years, Kazakhstan has assembled an impressive portfolio of digital projects. The Alem.Cloud and Al-Farabium supercomputers, along with the Data Center Valley project in Ekibastuz, are intended to improve the country's computing infrastructure. The Alem.ai artificial intelligence (AI) center and the KazLLM and AlemLLM large language models are designed to develop its AI capabilities. Training opportunities are also expanding through AI-Sana and Tomorrow School, with TUMO Astana offering education in AI and other digital fields. However, the wider use of AI remains relatively modest. The Digital Qazaqstan strategy through 2029 cites figures for the second half of 2025 showing that generative AI adoption in Kazakhstan stood at 13.7%, compared with a global average of 16.3%. Kazakhstan ranked 24th in the United Nations (UN) E-Government Development Index in its 2024 survey but 73rd in the 2026 GII. Kazakhstan's digitalization model has long centered on government services. The country's high position in the UN study reflects this focus. Commercial technologies present a more complicated picture: here, the government must rely on research teams, private developers, investors, and customers willing to pay for their services. The arrival of supercomputers expands the country's technical capabilities. How extensively they will be used outside government projects remains to be seen. Uzbekistan: Engineering Education and IT Services Exports The country has long focused on workforce development for the IT industry. An export-oriented digital services sector is growing around IT Park. Foreign companies are operating in the country, while training programs in programming and AI are expanding. Tashkent intends to support its workforce development policies with domestic computing infrastructure. Under the AI development strategy adopted in 2024, Uzbekistan plans $50 million in AI infrastructure spending and the training of one million specialists. AI laboratories are also planned at 15 universities. A smaller supercomputer is already operating, and preparations are underway to acquire a more powerful system....

Middle Corridor

Azerbaijan–Kazakhstan Ties Could Reorient Central Asian Integration

The five Central Asian presidents met with Azerbaijan’s Ilham Aliyev in Avaza on October 8 for the Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State of Central Asia and the Republic of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan’s participation brings a principal outlet for Central Asian trade into the six governments’ economic deliberations. Within their consultative format, the states can coordinate industrial projects with the transport services through which regional producers reach foreign markets. If Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan connect cross-Caspian transport more closely to industrial cooperation, the corridor could become an organizing axis for regional integration. The Case for Trans-Caspian Integration Closer Azerbaijan–Kazakhstan cooperation would make cross-Caspian transport more dependable if trains reach Kazakhstani ports in time for Caspian sailings and cargo arriving at Azerbaijani terminals connects with onward services through Georgia. A 2023 assessment by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), also called the World Bank, identified trade among Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Europe as a driver of corridor demand, giving regional exporters a place alongside China–Europe transit traffic. Onward connections from the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan (CKU) railway now under construction could run through Turkmenistan and across the Caspian to Azerbaijan, providing an alternative to routes through Iran. Conflict involving Iran strengthens Azerbaijan’s position as the more dependable western outlet for Europe-bound exports. Greater predictability could offset the cost of a Caspian crossing by reducing the stocks firms must hold against delays and the losses caused by interrupted deliveries. Extending the operating coordination developed with Kazakhstan to these southern connections could make Azerbaijan commercially preferable for Central Asian exporters serving European markets. Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan occupy the principal positions in this prospective reorientation. Together, they represent approximately one-third of the six countries’ population but account for more than three-fifths of their nominal GDP. Yet bilateral merchandise trade amounted to only $470.7 million in 2025. Their combined economic weight is thus disproportionate to the commerce presently linking them. The infrastructure and institutions connecting industrial investment to markets across the Caspian could give the two countries a basis for organizing wider regional integration, provided firms sustain commercial relationships through those connections. The Bilateral Basis for Regional Integration Export commitments depend on the cost and timing of the complete transport service. At Avaza, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev attached “particular importance” to developing the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also known as the Middle Corridor. His Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, advocated joint investment, manufacturing, and entry into foreign markets. For firms undertaking joint production, the commercial viability of Aliyev’s proposal would depend on transport coordinated from departure to delivery. Kazakhstan is developing the Middle Corridor along with the eastern branch of the International North–South Transport Corridor, which links Russia and Iran through Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. At Avaza, Turkmenistan’s President Serdar Berdimuhamedov supported the development of North–South corridors in addition to East–West routes. Tokayev also highlighted the continuing importance to Kazakhstan of the North–South route in cooperation with Russia. Kazakhstan’s multi-vector approach thus extends to transport infrastructure: the Middle Corridor strengthens westward access without displacing the commercial connections maintained...