Tajikistan Business Economy - The Times Of Central Asia

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Fuel Prices

Central Asia Feels Fuel Strain as Kazakhstan Prices Edge Higher

Kazakhstan's fuel market is moving into a new phase after the end of the government freeze on AI-92 gasoline and diesel. Pump prices have risen by small amounts so far. Retail prices are rising cautiously amid growing pressure from neighbors where fuel costs more. Kazakhstan still has some of the cheapest gasoline in the region, but that advantage creates a risk: cheap fuel attracts cross-border demand and makes it harder to fund the refining capacity the country says it needs. On October 16, 2025, Kazakhstan's government introduced a moratorium on further increases in AI-92 gasoline and diesel as part of a wider anti-inflation package. The decision also put the Energy Ministry, the competition agency, and regional authorities in charge of keeping supplies stable. The measure came after inflation and tariff reforms had raised concerns about household costs. The freeze ended on April 1, 2026, but by mid-April, the Energy Ministry was still trying to calm expectations. Kazinform cited Vice Minister of Energy Kaiyrkhan Tutkyshbayev on April 14 as saying most prices had risen mainly by one tenge after the moratorium was lifted, and that the state would not allow a sharp jump. The tone matched what drivers were seeing: a controlled rise rather than a sudden reset. The memory of January 2022, when an LPG price jump helped spark unrest, still hangs over fuel policy. The end of the freeze also fed into inflation expectations. National Bank Governor Timur Suleimenov warned in April that renewed growth in fuel prices and utility tariffs had to be handled cautiously, because a sharp reset could reverse the slowdown in inflation. The National Bank later said reforms in utility tariffs and fuel prices accounted for 32.9% of household inflation expectations in March. That made the fuel moratorium more than a pump-price measure: it was one of the state’s main tools for containing expectations while inflation remained in double digits. An April 9 check by Tengri Auto found that most filling stations in Almaty and the surrounding area were still selling fuel close to the previous price range. Several major networks, however, had already moved AI-92 toward 240 tenge per liter. AI-95, which was not covered by the main freeze, had risen to 328 tenge at one network. A Kazinform market check published on May 25 showed the same gradual pattern. AI-92 was listed at 238-239 tenge per liter in Astana, 238-241 tenge in Almaty, and 224-227 tenge in Shymkent. Diesel stood at 329 tenge in Astana, 330-337 tenge in Almaty, and 332-335 tenge in Shymkent. The figures point to a market that is moving, but still under close control. Fuel is also feeding into Kazakhstan's broader inflation picture. The Bureau of National Statistics put annual inflation at 10.6% in April 2026. Petrol prices were up 16.1% year-on-year and added 0.53 percentage points to annual price growth. Transport as a category added 1.1 percentage points. Fuel is one of the costs households notice most directly, and its effects spread through freight, food distribution, agriculture, taxis,...

Eurasian Development Bank (EDB)

EDB to Provide Tajikistan With $18.5 Million for Road Construction in Gorno-Badakhshan

The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) will finance the construction of a section of the Labidjar-Kalaikhumb highway in Tajikistan in a project aimed at improving transport connections with the country’s remote Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO) and increasing access to mountainous areas. The financing agreement was signed by the EDB’s country director for Tajikistan, Vladimir Yakunin, and Tajik Finance Minister Fayziddin Kakhhorzoda. Under the agreement, the bank will provide Tajikistan with concessional financing totaling $18.5 million. Of that amount, $17 million will be issued as a loan, while an additional $1.5 million will be allocated as a targeted grant. The funds will be used for the construction and reconstruction of the first section of the Labidjar-Kalaikhumb road. The project includes the construction of ten kilometers of roadway and three bridges. Project developers say the new infrastructure will improve cargo transport safety, enhance access to remote mountain regions, and create additional opportunities for business development and trade. The project is also expected to strengthen transport links between Tajikistan’s centrally administered districts and the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region. “The project will become part of a broader effort to modernize Tajikistan’s transport infrastructure and will contribute to the country’s socio-economic development, the expansion of interregional ties, and increased population mobility,” Yakunin said. He added that support for infrastructure projects remains one of the bank’s key strategic priorities. The Eurasian Development Bank has operated across the Eurasian region for nearly two decades. The institution finances projects in transport, digital infrastructure, agriculture, industry, and green energy. According to the bank, by the end of 2025, its portfolio included 326 projects with a combined investment volume of approximately $19.6 billion. A significant share of those projects is linked to the development of transport corridors and deeper economic integration among participating countries. The EDB also states that its activities are guided by the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and ESG principles.

Somon Air

Somon Air Awaits Boeing Delivery as Tajikistan´s Aviation Sector Grows

Tajikistan’s Somon Air expects the delivery of new Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft in the next few months, in a fleet expansion designed to strengthen the airline as a growing player in Central Asia's aviation sector. The national carrier, which aims to offer new intercontinental routes, said its management met a Boeing delegation this month to build on an agreement late last year in which Somon Air selected up to 14 Boeing 787 Dreamliner and 737 MAX aircraft. During the May 15 meeting, “the parties discussed key issues related to the introduction into service of the new Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft, whose delivery to Tajikistan is scheduled for July–August 2026,” Dushanbe-based Somon Air said. “The expansion of the fleet with modern aircraft will enable Somon Air to improve the quality of passenger service, expand its route network, and strengthen its position in the regional civil aviation market,” the airline said. Established in 2008, Somon Air currently operates six Boeing 737 Next Generation airplanes on routes to Germany, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, China, India, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. It has a total of 25 destinations. Tajikistan’s international routes traditionally focused on Russia, the destination for many migrants from Central Asia. According to Boeing, the new aircraft for Somon Air will deliver a 20–25% fuel-use improvement compared to the airplanes they replace and enable lower seat and maintenance costs. In another sign of commercial aviation growth in Tajikistan, Shohin Airlines, a new private airline registered in the country, said in April that it was in the final stage of acquiring four planes from the Airbus A320neo line of aircraft. Shohin Airlines, which operates helicopters for specialized flights, wants to make a significant expansion into commercial passenger traffic. It had announced a $200 million investment from a European investment fund. In 2025, Tajikistan introduced an Open Skies policy in which civil aviation authorities lifted many market restrictions. The move came two years after a 2023 study in which the World Bank said airport charges in Tajikistan were very high and that refueling costs were among the most expensive in Central Asia. The agency recommended market deregulation as a way to encourage competition, leading to better prices for passengers, more efficient service and route diversification.

Critical Minerals

Central Asia Seeks More Local Value From Critical Minerals

Rising demand for critical minerals is drawing Central Asia deeper into global supply chains, but the region’s harder test is not whether it has the deposits. It is whether more value can stay at home. Copper, tungsten, graphite, antimony, rare earths and other metals now sit at the center of battery production, power grids, chips, weapons systems, and renewable energy. Governments across the region want the sector to bring capital, jobs, and technology. The risk is another cycle in which raw materials leave the region, and most of the value is created elsewhere. The scale of the region’s reserves explains why outside interest is rising. An OECD review of critical raw materials in Central Asia says the region holds 39% of global manganese ore reserves, 31% of chromium, 20% of lead, 13% of zinc, 9% of titanium, 6% of aluminum, and 5% each of copper, cobalt, and molybdenum. The same review says Kazakhstan can export 21 of the 34 critical raw materials on the EU list, while Kyrgyzstan has the world’s third-largest antimony reserves, and Uzbekistan has the world’s eleventh-largest copper reserves. Uranium widens the picture: Kazakhstan is the world’s largest uranium producer, accounting for 39% of mined uranium supply in 2024, according to the World Nuclear Association. Kazakhstan has moved fastest in turning this base into policy. The prime minister’s office says the country will spend about $500 million over three years on geological exploration and modernizing infrastructure. The plan includes seismic surveys, new data systems, and a geological cluster in Astana. The government wants to raise geological study coverage to 2.2 million square kilometers. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has linked the sector to Kazakhstan’s wider industrial plans. In his 2025 state-of-the-nation address, Tokayev said the mining and metallurgical complex still had “significant growth potential, particularly in the production of high-value-added products.” New discoveries have sharpened that push. Kazakhstan’s industry ministry said in 2025 that geologists had identified the Zhana Kazakhstan rare earth site, with estimated resources of more than 20 million metric tons. The site contains neodymium, cerium, lanthanum, and yttrium. Officials have also cited the Kuirektykol site in the Karaganda Region, where confirmed reserves are estimated at 795,800 tons, with total resources estimated at 935,400 tons. Uzbekistan is making its strongest move in copper and processing capacity. In March, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev launched Copper Concentrator No. 3 at the Almalyk Mining and Metallurgical Complex. The $2.7 billion facility is designed to process 60 million tons of ore and produce about 900,000 tons of copper concentrate per year. Once fully operational, it is expected to raise daily concentrate output at Almalyk from 2,400 tons to 5,000 tons. Uzbekistan’s minerals push has also drawn U.S. support. Uzbekistan and the United States signed a memorandum on critical minerals and rare earth supply chains in February, giving Tashkent a clearer place in Washington’s effort to diversify critical minerals supply chains beyond China. The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation later signed a Joint Investment Framework with Uzbekistan, stating that this would “promote cooperation...

Food Security

Kazakhstan Ready to Become Key Food Hub in Eurasia

Tajikistan is hosting the 35th Session of the FAO Regional Conference for Europe from May 11 to 15, bringing together members of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations from Europe and Central Asia for discussions on regional food security and agricultural development priorities. The conference has gathered agriculture ministers from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan to address the most pressing challenges facing the sector, review FAO activities in Europe and Central Asia in 2024-2025, and outline priorities for 2026-2027. Speaking at the conference, Kazakhstan’s Minister of Agriculture Aidarbek Saparov said the country occupies a strategically important position in the global food security system and remains among the world’s leading grain producers. According to Saparov, Kazakhstan harvested around 27 million tons of grain for the second consecutive year in 2025, along with nearly 5 million tons of oilseeds and approximately 1 million tons of legumes. During the latest agricultural season, the country exported 15.3 million tons of grain. Kazakhstan currently ranks 10th globally in grain exports, second in flour exports, and eighth in sunflower oil exports, supplying agricultural products to around 50 countries. “Against the backdrop of population growth, climate change, and instability in global markets, food security is becoming a key factor in the sustainable development of states. Under these conditions, Kazakhstan is capable of occupying a strategic niche as a regional center for the production, storage, processing, and supply of grain products,” Saparov said. The minister added that Kazakhstan is implementing a comprehensive livestock development plan for 2026-2030 aimed at increasing livestock numbers and expanding the sector’s export potential. Saparov said Kazakhstan possesses the resources necessary to strengthen its position as one of Eurasia’s key food hubs and is prepared to ensure stable, rapid, and cost-effective supplies of grain and processed grain products to Central Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and other regions.

Chinese Investment

Tajikistan’s Rahmon Seeks Deeper Economic Ties During China Visit

More than 700 companies with Chinese capital are operating in Tajikistan, and about 12.5% of the nearly $7 billion in foreign investment that entered the Central Asian country’s economy last year came from China, according to Tajikistan’s presidency. Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon shared the data after arriving in Beijing on Monday to push for even closer economic ties with China, which surpassed Russia last year to become Tajikistan’s largest trading partner. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said Rahmon was making the May 11-14 trip at the invitation of President Xi Jinping, who will then host U.S. President Donald Trump from May 13 to 15 China is expanding economic projects and investment across Central Asia, and the rapid pace of development is evident in numerous initiatives currently underway in Tajikistan. Last month, government and industry officials from the two countries met in Dushanbe to discuss “green minerals,” the materials – abundant in Tajikistan – that are used in clean energy technologies such as solar power and electric vehicle batteries. In February, the first container train from China arrived in Tajikistan’s capital after passing through Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan on what the Chinese embassy said was a new trade route. “The development of modern transport and economic corridors through Tajikistan linking China and South Asian countries with the Middle East was described as another factor promoting cooperation with neighboring China,” Tajikistan’s presidency said in a summary of Rahmon’s speech in Beijing on Monday. More than 50 agreements were signed between Tajik and Chinese companies during the presidential visit. The deals are projected to attract more than $8 billion in investment to Tajikistan, the presidency said. Despite the escalation in trade ties, some economists warn that Tajikistan is becoming more economically dependent on China and that its trade deficit is deepening that vulnerability. China has also expressed concern about the safety of its Tajikistan-based workers after attacks on Chinese installations from the Afghan side of the border in the last year.