Tajikistan Features - The Times Of Central Asia

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Society

Bans and Beliefs: Understanding Central Asia’s Most Controversial Restrictions

A recent controversy involving the Spiritual Administration of Muslims of Kazakhstan (SAMK) has reignited public debate over seemingly bizarre bans in Central Asia. SAMK was asked to comment on whether popular video games such as Counter-Strike 2, Dota 2, GTA, League of Legends, Minecraft, and Genshin Impact are permissible under Islamic law. SAMK responded that, from a Sharia perspective, all of these games are prohibited. The public interpreted this as an official ban, possibly even a fatwa, sparking a media uproar. But the reaction wasn’t unfounded: Central Asian republics often make headlines with prohibitions that, from the outside, can appear surreal. Yet, context often provides a more nuanced explanation. Turkmenistan: The Regional Champion of Bans Turkmenistan remains unmatched in its record of curious restrictions. Under its first president, Saparmurat Niyazov, the state banned smoking in cars, mobile phones, radios, stereo systems, clowns, and lip-syncing. Public smoking was also prohibited, and officials were barred from having gold teeth. Other bans targeted personal appearance. Men were forbidden from wearing long hair, beards, or mustaches, while makeup was banned for television presenters. Niyazov justified the latter by claiming it was difficult to distinguish men from women on screen and that Turkmen women’s natural “wheat-colored” complexion should be visible. Cultural life was similarly curtailed. Niyazov abolished ballet, opera, the circus, and even the national folk dance ensemble. “I don’t understand ballet. Why do I need it?” he said. “You can’t instill a love for ballet in Turkmen people if it’s not in their blood”. His successor, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, retained many of these restrictions, particularly the sweeping limitations on internet access. According to Turkmen.news, as of 2023, approximately 75% of global IP addresses were blocked in Turkmenistan. The list of banned platforms includes Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, Telegram, YouTube, WhatsApp, and X (formerly Twitter). Cloud services such as Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, and Dropbox are also blocked, along with most public DNS servers and online games such as Minecraft, Dota 2, and League of Legends. Dushanbe Follows Suit Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are not alone in targeting video games. In 2024, the Interior Ministry in Tajikistan’s capital, Dushanbe, banned the distribution of games and video clips deemed violent or immoral. Authorities argued that such content negatively influenced youth behavior and contributed to crime. Games like Counter-Strike and GTA were explicitly named. Tajikistan has also imposed a range of non-digital bans. In 2018, the Committee for Architecture and Construction ordered that rooftops follow a citywide color scheme: green on one side of the river, burgundy on the other. The directive was short-lived. That same year, the mayor banned wearing house clothes, galoshes, and slippers in public, citing the need to uphold the capital’s dignity. The city also outlawed drying laundry on balconies to preserve the urban aesthetic. While these rules may seem odd, they reflect the ongoing transformation of societies that, until recently, were largely agrarian. Urbanization has brought with it an effort to instill new norms and behaviors. Sorcery, Beards, and Dress Codes This same logic applies...

Water Crisis

Tajikistan and Central Asia Face Escalating Water Crisis

Central Asia is emerging as one of the regions most vulnerable to drought, according to the latest Global Drought Outlook published by the United Nations. A Region Under Climate Pressure The report highlights a persistent rise in average annual temperatures, diminishing snow cover, and accelerated glacier retreat, particularly in the mountainous regions of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, as key drivers of water insecurity. “Climate change is accelerating glacier retreat... This poses a long-term threat to the region's water security,” the report states. Tajikistan, which holds over 60% of Central Asia’s glaciers, plays a critical role in the region’s hydrology. Agriculture on the Brink The first sector to suffer from prolonged drought is agriculture, which underpins food security across Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. Most agriculture in these countries relies on outdated irrigation systems ill-equipped to handle evolving climate conditions. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the global incidence of droughts rose by 29% between 2000 and 2023. In Central Asia, this trend has resulted in declining crop yields, income losses, and forced livestock sales. In Tajikistan’s Khatlon and Sogd regions, farmers experience income drops of 15-30% during dry years. Despite generating more than 60% of the region's freshwater through glaciers and high-altitude rivers, Tajikistan struggles with its own water shortages. Nearly 60% of water is lost due to leakage in dilapidated canals, compounded by inefficient water management. Rural communities are particularly affected, with thousands of families lacking regular access to clean water. Hydropower and Economic Risks Tajikistan relies on hydropower for over 90% of its electricity. However, inconsistent snowfall and prolonged summer droughts have drastically lowered reservoir levels, threatening national energy stability. More than half of the country’s 14,000 kilometers of irrigation canals require modernization. From 2000 to 2016, drought-related economic losses in Central Asia exceeded $2 billion. In 2023 alone, Tajikistan incurred $5.4 million in damages due to power shortages. Droughts are also impacting public health, employment, and migration. Natural disasters annually affect around 1.4 million people in Uzbekistan and 500,000 in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. By 2050, drought-related losses are expected to reach 1.3% of regional GDP annually, with up to five million climate migrants projected. Regional and Global Responses Tajikistan, a signatory to the UN Convention to Combat Desertification, is pursuing land restoration and sustainable water management projects. Under the ISCAUZR-2 initiative (Central Asian Initiative on Sustainable Land Management), the country secured nearly $1.5 million to support sustainable agricultural practices. Efforts include the development of fruit tree nurseries, installation of drip irrigation systems, construction of freshwater reservoirs, and deployment of monitoring sensors at water sources. Agroforestry techniques and drought-resistant crop varieties are also being introduced. Despite these initiatives, the region continues to face rising temperatures, Asia has already surpassed a +1.04°C increase and Tajikistan has lost more than 1,000 glaciers. An estimated 10 million people across Central Asia lack sustainable access to safe drinking water. Natural phenomena increasingly compound one another: droughts cause dust storms, which in turn accelerate glacier melt. The UN report warns that without systemic...

Regional Influence

Iran–Israel War Highlights Central Asia as Zone of Strategic Stability

The explosive conflict between Iran and Israel, including coordinated U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, has drawn global attention to the Persian Gulf and Levant. The escalatory spectacle, however, has blinded most observers to a quieter structural shift. This is the rising indispensability of Central Asia, including its linkages with the South Caucasus. Unaligned in rhetoric and untouched by spillover, Central Asia's very stability quietly threw into relief its increasing centrality to Eurasian energy and logistics calculations. As maritime chokepoints came into question and ideological rhetoric became more inflamed, Central Asia offers a reminder that the most valuable nodes in a network are the ones that continue operating silently and without disruption. Neither Israel nor Iran has real operational depth in Central Asia, and this has made a difference. Unlike Lebanon, Iraq, or Yemen — where proxy networks or ideological leverage allowed Tehran to externalize confrontation — no such mechanisms exist east of the Caspian Sea. Iran’s efforts in Tajikistan, grounded in shared linguistic heritage and periodic religious diplomacy, today remain cultural and informational rather than sectarian and clientelist. The influence of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Central Asia is minimal; Israeli presence, while diplomatically steady in places like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, is neither controversial nor militarized. There are no significant arms flows or dual-use infrastructure for either side to use. As a result, Central Asia has remained untouched by the conflict. Although the Iran–Israel conflict is relatively geographically localized, it has shed light on global systems far beyond the immediate zone of combat. Although not so far from the missile trajectories and nuclear facilities, Central Asia and the South Caucasus are remarkably insulated from their effects. Rather than becoming another theater of contestation, they have demonstrated their value as stabilizing elements at a time of heightened geostrategic volatility. It is no longer optional to take into account the Central Asian space, which geoeconomically includes Azerbaijan, now a permanent fixture at the region's summits. As the war now produces a phase of reactive adaptation in international geoeconomics and diplomacy, the region has become a control parameter of the international system rather than a fluctuating variable dependent upon it. The Iran–Israel conflict has drawn new attention to the vulnerability of maritime energy corridors, especially the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes. While contingency planning has focused on naval logistics and airpower deterrents in the Gulf, the Eurasian interior has remained materially unaffected, reflecting its structural indispensability. Central Asia and the South Caucasus, particularly Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, offer existing and potential overland alternatives that bypass maritime chokepoints entirely. Kazakhstan’s oil continues to flow via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline to the Black Sea, while Azerbaijan’s infrastructure, anchored by the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (BTC) corridor, links Caspian energy to Mediterranean terminals. These routes are not replacements for Persian Gulf volumes, but, as redundancies, they acquire significance as stabilizing arteries as well as increased relevance in moments of system stress. The war has thus sharpened a fact...

Industry Failures

Structural Barriers Continue to Hamper Industrial Growth in Tajikistan

Despite recent gains in industrial output, Tajikistan’s full industrial potential remains largely unrealized. Analysts point to a combination of systemic issues that continue to constrain the sector's sustainable development. Growth Driven by Extractive Industries According to the Statistical Agency under the President of Tajikistan, industrial production totaled 18.9 billion somoni in January, April 2025, marking a 25.2% increase compared to the same period in 2024. However, this growth was overwhelmingly fueled by the extractive sector, which surged by 90%. In contrast, manufacturing expanded by just 3.5%. While 121 new enterprises were launched during the first four months of the year, disruptions in existing operations and the narrow structure of industrial growth highlight deeper systemic problems. Idle Enterprises and Obsolete Equipment Minister of Industry and New Technologies Sherali Kabir reported that 92 industrial enterprises remained non-operational as of August 2024. Over half have been idle since 2008-2018, with the rest inactive since 2019-2022. The reasons range from financial difficulties and pandemic-related business closures to outdated equipment and low competitiveness. Rising input costs and limited market access further compound the problem. Some sectors, such as textiles and garments, could potentially resume operations, but only with significant modernization. Although some light and food industry enterprises have diversified, others, such as the porcelain factory in Tursunzade, have failed to adapt to changing market conditions. Raw Material Shortages Insufficient raw material supply remains a major bottleneck for several subsectors. The vegetable oil industry, for instance, requires approximately 833,000 tons of oilseeds to produce 100,000 tons of oil. However, domestic output is under 100,000 tons, limiting production to just 25,000 tons, four times below the national requirement. The canning industry faces similar constraints due to an inconsistent supply of fruits and vegetables. Energy Shortages Power outages continue to disrupt industrial output, especially in winter. Cotton processing plants produced 980 tons less fiber in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 due to energy shortages. At the Azot plant in Levakant, production losses translated to a 7.3 million somoni revenue shortfall. Agricultural infrastructure has also been affected: the Land Reclamation Agency reported 130 pump station failures in 2023 alone, caused by voltage surges and sudden power cuts. Declining Cement and Coal Exports Despite advances in cement production, Tajikistan’s export volumes have declined sharply. From January to April 2025, the country exported just 154,000 tons of cement, down from 655,000 tons during the same period in 2024. This marks a 30.4 percent decline compared to the same period in 2023. The decline stems largely from reduced demand in key markets. Uzbekistan’s new cement plants have fulfilled domestic needs and displaced Tajik exports to Afghanistan. Coal exports have also suffered due to increased transit fees. Afghanistan raised its transit tariff from $7 to as much as $50 per ton, leading to a 15,000-ton decline in exports to Afghanistan and a 65,000-ton drop to Pakistan. High Production Costs Undermine Competitiveness High production costs across all sectors continue to undermine Tajikistan’s industrial competitiveness. For example, the...

Air Pollution

World Bank: Over 65,000 Premature Deaths a Year in Central Asia Linked To Air Pollution

Air pollution remains one of the most pressing environmental and public health challenges in Central Asia, with significant consequences for human life and regional economies. A new World Bank assessment highlights the scale of the crisis, linking poor air quality to more than 65,000 premature deaths in 2021 across the region. The report identifies pollution from fossil fuel combustion, especially for heating and transportation, as a major contributor to declining air quality in both urban and rural areas. Transboundary sand and dust storms are compounding the problem, affecting multiple countries simultaneously. In many Central Asian cities, concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exceed safe limits by a wide margin. During the winter, levels can spike to six to twelve times higher than the World Health Organization’s recommended thresholds. The economic burden is also staggering: the annual health costs associated with air pollution are estimated at $15-21 billion, representing 3-5% of the region’s GDP in 2022. Human-Caused Emissions Dominate According to experts, 50-80% of PM2.5 exposure is due to human activity, primarily the burning of solid fuels for heating in households and small businesses. While natural dust is a contributing factor in some areas, anthropogenic sources remain the dominant driver. The World Bank argues that this crisis can be mitigated with the right policy interventions. Effective strategies include reducing emissions from household heating, traffic, and industrial operations, as well as expanding urban green spaces. To better coordinate efforts, the Bank advocates for an “airshed approach”, a governance model that promotes joint responsibility between national and local authorities to improve air quality. Additional recommendations include strengthening air quality laws and monitoring systems, updating standards, raising public awareness, and enhancing cross-border cooperation among Central Asian states. Impact on Children A separate report by UNICEF underscores the disproportionate toll air pollution takes on children. In 2021, approximately 6,441 children and teenagers across Europe and Central Asia died from air pollution-related causes, 85% of them under the age of one. UNICEF stressed that these deaths were entirely preventable. Experts maintain that improving air quality could yield wide-ranging benefits, including increased productivity, reduced healthcare costs, and enhanced quality of life. They urge governments to integrate air quality management into climate and development plans to unlock additional financial and technical assistance.

Israel-Iran Escalation

After U.S. Bombs Iran, Central Asia Calls for Diplomacy and Restraint

In the early hours of June 22, the United States launched airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, triggering widespread concern across Central Asia. Despite the potential economic upside for Kazakhstan, with the possibility of rising oil prices, the region’s governments have uniformly called for restraint and a peaceful resolution. The operation, dubbed “Midnight Hammer” by the U.S. Department of Defense, reportedly targeted facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. While Washington claimed success, the Iranian authorities asserted they had evacuated uranium from the Fordow site in advance, calling the mission a failure. Military experts continue to debate the extent of the damage. Coordinated Responses from Central Asian Capitals The foreign ministries of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan issued similarly worded statements expressing concern over the rapidly deteriorating situation. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the U.S. airstrikes marked a dangerous escalation and emphasized the need for negotiations grounded in the UN Charter. “Kazakhstan is part of the group of Caspian countries and is developing cooperation with Iran in various areas. Our country believes that all disagreements, including nuclear issues, should be resolved through negotiations,” the statement said. It also urged international efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation and establish security guarantees for nations adhering to the non-proliferation regime. Uzbekistan’s Foreign Ministry echoed this sentiment and advised citizens to avoid traveling to Israel and Iran. It also urged those currently in those countries to leave high-risk areas where possible. Kyrgyzstan called on all parties to exercise “maximum restraint” and avoid steps that could exacerbate the crisis. Turkmenistan reaffirmed its policy of "positive neutrality," stressing the importance of diplomacy and adherence to international law. Ashgabat stated that it “does not accept the use or threat of force as a means of resolving political and other disputes”. Tajikistan, meanwhile, issued the strongest statement, condemning the U.S. and Israeli strikes outright and warning that the conflict could lead to a prolonged regional war. Dushanbe called on the UN, IAEA, and other global bodies to prevent violations of international law and work towards peace and environmental safety. The Economic Subtext: Rising Oil Prices While official reactions were uniformly cautious, analysts in Kazakhstan noted the economic implications. Expert Olzhas Baidildin pointed out that shares in KazMunayGas surged by 11% following the strikes, with its market capitalization rising to 10.3 trillion KZT ($19.8 billion). Baidildin previously argued that Iran is unlikely to follow through on threats to block the Strait of Hormuz. Nevertheless, he noted that such a move would dramatically increase the strategic importance of Kazakhstan and other Central Asian energy producers to major consumers such as China and India. Financial analyst Andrei Chebotarev agreed, stating: "Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz is no longer the ace it once was. The West has diversified away from Gulf oil, while the real impact would fall on China, the region’s largest importer. Meanwhile, the U.S. could benefit from a price surge through its shale exports". It is estimated that China purchases approximately 90% of Iran's oil exports...