Despite recent gains in industrial output, Tajikistan’s full industrial potential remains largely unrealized. Analysts point to a combination of systemic issues that continue to constrain the sector’s sustainable development.
Growth Driven by Extractive Industries
According to the Statistical Agency under the President of Tajikistan, industrial production totaled 18.9 billion somoni in January, April 2025, marking a 25.2% increase compared to the same period in 2024. However, this growth was overwhelmingly fueled by the extractive sector, which surged by 90%. In contrast, manufacturing expanded by just 3.5%.
While 121 new enterprises were launched during the first four months of the year, disruptions in existing operations and the narrow structure of industrial growth highlight deeper systemic problems.
Idle Enterprises and Obsolete Equipment
Minister of Industry and New Technologies Sherali Kabir reported that 92 industrial enterprises remained non-operational as of August 2024. Over half have been idle since 2008-2018, with the rest inactive since 2019-2022.
The reasons range from financial difficulties and pandemic-related business closures to outdated equipment and low competitiveness. Rising input costs and limited market access further compound the problem. Some sectors, such as textiles and garments, could potentially resume operations, but only with significant modernization.
Although some light and food industry enterprises have diversified, others, such as the porcelain factory in Tursunzade, have failed to adapt to changing market conditions.
Raw Material Shortages
Insufficient raw material supply remains a major bottleneck for several subsectors. The vegetable oil industry, for instance, requires approximately 833,000 tons of oilseeds to produce 100,000 tons of oil. However, domestic output is under 100,000 tons, limiting production to just 25,000 tons, four times below the national requirement.
The canning industry faces similar constraints due to an inconsistent supply of fruits and vegetables.
Energy Shortages
Power outages continue to disrupt industrial output, especially in winter. Cotton processing plants produced 980 tons less fiber in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 due to energy shortages.
At the Azot plant in Levakant, production losses translated to a 7.3 million somoni revenue shortfall. Agricultural infrastructure has also been affected: the Land Reclamation Agency reported 130 pump station failures in 2023 alone, caused by voltage surges and sudden power cuts.
Declining Cement and Coal Exports
Despite advances in cement production, Tajikistan’s export volumes have declined sharply. From January to April 2025, the country exported just 154,000 tons of cement, down from 655,000 tons during the same period in 2024. This marks a 30.4 percent decline compared to the same period in 2023.
The decline stems largely from reduced demand in key markets. Uzbekistan’s new cement plants have fulfilled domestic needs and displaced Tajik exports to Afghanistan.
Coal exports have also suffered due to increased transit fees. Afghanistan raised its transit tariff from $7 to as much as $50 per ton, leading to a 15,000-ton decline in exports to Afghanistan and a 65,000-ton drop to Pakistan.
High Production Costs Undermine Competitiveness
High production costs across all sectors continue to undermine Tajikistan’s industrial competitiveness. For example, the cost of cultivating one hectare of cotton exceeds 10,000 somoni, twice as high as in neighboring Uzbekistan. This is driven by elevated fuel, service, and fertilizer prices.
Livestock farming faces similar hurdles. High feed and veterinary costs make domestic meat and dairy products less competitive, reducing profitability and limiting foreign investment interest.
