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Tajikistan Predicts Economic Slowdown Amid Declining Remittances

Tajikistan's economic growth is projected to decelerate to 7.5% in 2025, largely due to weakening domestic demand, according to the latest regional economic review by the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD). Migrant Remittances: A Key Factor The anticipated slowdown is primarily attributed to a decline in remittances from labor migrants, which have historically formed a substantial share of Tajikistan’s GDP. EFSD analysts forecast that from 2025 to 2027, the volume of transfers will gradually normalize after peaking between 2022 and 2024. Despite this decline, the EFSD maintains that Tajikistan’s balance of payments will remain stable, helped in part by reduced capital outflows, including foreign currency purchases. Previously, the World Bank reported that migrant remittances accounted for 45% of the country’s GDP in 2024, the highest proportion globally. By comparison, remittances made up 24% of GDP in Kyrgyzstan and 14% in Uzbekistan. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) expects this share to fall to 37% in 2025. Inflation Pressures Rise EFSD economists also warn of mounting inflationary pressures. Inflation is projected to approach the upper limit of the National Bank of Tajikistan’s target corridor, 5% with an acceptable deviation of ±2 percentage points. Over the medium term, inflation is expected to stabilize within the target range. Food prices remain the primary risk to price stability, the EFSD cautioned. Exports, External Risks, and Trade Barriers The ADB has also published a forecast supporting a more restrained outlook, highlighting falling global prices for Tajikistan’s key exports, metals and agricultural goods, including aluminum, as an added drag on growth. Additionally, regional trade barriers are posing challenges. Uzbekistan recently raised import duties on Tajik cement, a move seen by analysts as part of a broader trend of protectionist policies in neighboring countries. External conditions are also exerting pressure. Economic slowdowns in Russia and China, Tajikistan’s primary trading partners, could suppress both export revenue and remittances, the majority of which come from migrant workers in Russia. GDP Projections and Sector Breakdown According to the ADB’s baseline scenario, Tajikistan’s GDP growth is expected to slow to 7.4% in 2025 and 6.8% in 2026. In contrast, Tajik authorities aim to maintain growth at no less than 8%. In 2024, the economy grew by 8.4%, a 0.1 percentage point increase over the previous year. GDP totaled 153.4 billion somoni (approximately $14 billion). The sectoral composition of GDP included agriculture (22.8%), industry (16.9%), trade (15.2%), transportation (9.3%), construction (8.1%), taxes (9.4%), and other services (18.3%). Despite the projected slowdown, ADB experts remain cautiously optimistic. They cite sustained investment in energy and industrial sectors, expanded agricultural and service output, and continued, albeit diminished, remittance inflows as key factors that will support Tajikistan’s economic momentum.

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Complaint against Tajik Officials Filed with International Criminal Court

For many years now, Tajikistan’s government has been ruling the country as it wishes and ignoring all criticism of the many rights violations being committed in Tajikistan. On April 10, two NGOs -- the Ukrainian Fund of International Volunteers and Freedom for Eurasia -- and the banned Tajik opposition Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT) filed a complaint with the international Criminal Court (ICC). The complaint accuses Tajik President Emomali Rahmon and his government of committing crimes against humanity. IRPT leader Muhiddin Kabiri said, “We hope the (ICC), (after considering) our complaint, will begin procedures for opening a criminal case and arresting the perpetrators, including the top leadership of Tajikistan.” A Big Problem That’s Getting Worse Evidence provided in the complaint covers the period from 2002 to 2024, but events only in the last few years tell the story of the impunity with which Tajik authorities have acted toward their citizens inside and outside Tajikistan. In May 2022, the Tajik government responded to peaceful protests in eastern Tajikistan’s Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) by implementing a counter-terrorism operation that saw dozens, at least, of locals killed, and hundreds detained. Tajik authorities arrested people who were not involved in the protests: lawyers, activists, artists, and journalists. More than a dozen Pamiris were detained in Russia and forcibly deported back to Tajikistan where they were immediately detained and soon after, convicted and imprisoned. GBAO is home to the Pamiris, a group of more than 200,000 who have been living in the remote Pamir Mountains for centuries. They are Shiite Muslims, not Sunnis as most ethnic Tajiks are. Pamiris have their own languages and a unique culture. GBAO has been a restive area since Tajikistan became independent in late 1991, mainly because the Pamiris prefer to govern their territory according to their own age-old customs and have been resistant to the government’s attempts to exert control over the region. Less than three years since the counter-terrorism operation, Pamiri culture is in danger of disappearing. Pamiris are followers of the Aga Khan. During more than 30 years of Tajikistan’s independence, the recently deceased Aga Khan IV Prince Karim spent more than $1 billion on projects in GBAO, which is the poorest region in Tajikistan. Since 2022, the government has seized or is currently trying to seize nearly everything the Aga Khan Development Network built or established in GBAO. The hotels, schools, including the University of Central Asia in the GBAO capital Khorog, a medical center, the park in Khorog, and other objects financed by the Aga Khan are all coming under state control. Locals are forbidden from having portraits of the Aga Khan in their homes. Rahmon is preparing his eldest son, Rustam Emomali, to become Tajikistan’s next president. In advance of the widely-expected transfer of power, Rahmon has been clearing away any potential opposition. The IRPT was banned and declared by a Tajik court to be an extremist group a decade ago, despite the party having been part of the government during the previous 18...

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Excitement Mounts After Trio of Central Asian Countries Launch Joint Bid to Host 2031 AFC Cup

On February 24, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan officially submitted a joint bid to host the 2031 AFC Asian Football Cup. If selected, the 2031 tournament would be the first top-level football event hosted in Central Asia. Central Asian Football Association (CAFA) President Rustam Emomali – the eldest son of Tajik President Emomali Rahmon - displayed his enthusiasm following the bid. “Our Central Asian region has never hosted the final part of the Asian Cup. I think the time has come. Our region is represented by very strong teams, and I am confident that together with the fraternal countries, we will host the final part of the Asian Cup at the highest level,” he stated. Whilst a joint bid amongst Central Asia countries has stoked excitement for many in the region, they currently face strong competition to host the event. The UAE, Kuwait, Australia, Indonesia, and South Korea have all signaled their intention to bid to be the tournament’s next host. Whilst none of the three Central Asian nations have hosted a top-level football tournament, Uzbekistan has experience with similar events after hosting the AFC U-20 and U-23 tournaments and the Futsal World Cup in 2024. However, after attending the Futsal World Cup, Uzbek fan Farrukh Irnazarov is nervous that the authorities may not promote the event aggressively enough. “When Uzbekistan hosts an event like this, they’re very serious about it. However, unfortunately their biggest concern is security. [The Futsal World Cup] wasn’t heavily publicized, and many people weren’t aware we were hosting it,” he told The Times of Central Asia. To be considered for the bid, all three countries will need to complete stadium renovations by the time the AFC committee makes its decision in 2026. Uzbekistan is the most prepared of the three, with stadiums already at international tournament capacity in Tashkent, Namangan, Fergana, and Qarshi. A stadium with a minimum capacity of 50,000 seats is required for the final, and Bishkek has already volunteered. Tashkent and Dushanbe are also revamping their respective stadiums, as the host nations must have two cities with 40,000-seat stadiums for the semi-finals in the tournament. [caption id="attachment_30647" align="aligncenter" width="2048"] The Dolon Omurzakov Stadium in Bishkek; image: TCA, Joe Luc Barnes[/caption] What is the AFC Asian Cup? The AFC Asian Cup is an Asian (plus Australia) football competition that has been held every four years since 1956. The previous tournament was held in 2023 in Qatar, which saw the host nation become champions. The tournament started with just four teams: South Korea, Israel, South Vietnam, and Hong Kong, playing a round-robin style tournament before expanding to 24 teams in 2019. Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan have already qualified for the next tournament in Saudi Arabia in 2027, whilst Tajikistan and Turkmenistan need to win their group in the final round of qualification to participate. However, for the 2031 tournament, if Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan see their bid accepted, all three teams will qualify automatically. Central Asia’s best tournament result came with a fourth-place finish by Uzbekistan...

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A New Great Game: Multipolar Competition in Central Asia

At a time when the European Union, China, and Turkey are seeking to strengthen their presence in Central Asia, the United States administration is consumed with bilaterally implementing a seismic shift in its trade policy with the entire world. Although this region of post-Soviet space is widely seen as a new front of rivalry between Washington and Beijing, in many aspects, American influence in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan lags far behind that of other actors. Culture (soft power) has always played an important role in the foreign policy of every great power. The Soviet Union was no exception. As a result, even today, Russian, rather than English, is still the lingua franca in Central Asia, although Moscow, following its invasion of Ukraine, has had a hard time preserving remnants of its former dominance in the region. Russian cinema, however, maintains a notable presence in most, if not all, Central Asian states. While Hollywood movies have a strong global presence, Russian films in Central Asia often act as a link between Western content and the region's cultural traditions. Millions of Central Asian migrants working in Russia also serve as a bridge between their nations and the Russian Federation, facilitating cultural exchange, economic ties, and the spread of the Russian language. However, Russia’s fiasco in Ukraine has created space for the EU to assert its influence in a region that has traditionally been in Moscow’s geopolitical orbit. Nevertheless, although Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, are Tajikistan are members of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization, they have remained neutral in the Ukraine conflict. For Central Asian nations, the EU serves as a counterweight they can use to balance their relations with Moscow. The EU, however, faces strong economic competition from China. With a trade volume of $94.8 billion with Central Asian states, Beijing is positioning itself as the major economic power operating in the five regional nations. Although the European Union’s influence in Central Asia is expected to continue to grow in the coming years, if investment trends from recent years persist, the balance in the region will likely tilt towards China, which will increase its presence and influence at the expense of Russia. But where does the United States fit into this dynamic? Even though the U.S. is the largest economy in the world, with which almost everyone wants to engage, American bilateral trade with the region has never been particularly strong, with the exception of Kazakhstan. Interestingly enough, it is Astana that is expected to suffer the most among Central Asian actors due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs – 27% on Kazakhstan compared to 10% on all other nations in the region. Exceptions may be made for Kazakhstan’s critical minerals, however, which are now the third largest in the world based on a recent discovery, with reports suggesting that some goods, including “certain minerals that are not available in the United States,” as well as energy, will not be subject to the tariffs. According to Kazakhstan’s Ministry...

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From Malnutrition to Water Scarcity: UN Identifies Key Threats to Food Security in Tajikistan

A new United Nations report titled Food Security and Nutrition Outlook for Europe and Central Asia 2024 has outlined the major challenges facing Tajikistan in nutrition, public health, and sustainable agriculture. The report identifies chronic malnutrition, rising childhood obesity, and vulnerability to climate change as the principal threats to the country’s food system. According to the findings, Tajikistan continues to face a dual burden: while undernutrition remains a persistent issue, obesity is on the rise, particularly among children. In 2022, nearly one in seven Tajik children under five (13.1%) suffered from stunting due to chronic malnutrition, while 9.9% were affected by wasting, well above the global target of 3%. At the same time, childhood obesity has seen a dramatic increase, with the proportion of overweight children rising from 4.6% in 2000 to 21% in 2022. Efforts to address these issues are further complicated by Tajikistan’s climate vulnerability and water management challenges. Agriculture, a cornerstone of the national economy and food supply, is particularly susceptible to shifting weather patterns. Although the government is implementing reforms, including the adoption of a new Water Code in 2020 and a watershed management system planned for completion by 2026, water scarcity remains a critical concern. Water user associations are playing a growing role in this transformation. The report also highlights gender disparities in the agricultural workforce. Women represent a significant share of those employed in agriculture, yet many work informally, without pay or legal protections. The UN urges action to ensure women have equitable access to land, resources, and decision-making processes. Beyond Tajikistan, the wider Europe and Central Asia region is not immune to food insecurity. As of 2023, 107 million people, 11.5% of the population, faced moderate or severe food insecurity, with 24.5 million in acute need. In Central Asia, 2.3 million people, around 3% of the region’s population, do not meet minimum daily energy requirements. The crisis is exacerbated by economic instability, climate change, and geopolitical tensions, including the war in Ukraine. While child malnutrition and anemia in women have declined across the region, adult obesity is increasing and now exceeds 20%. Meanwhile, 7.1% of children under five are overweight, and nearly 64.3 million people (6.9%) cannot afford a nutritious diet, an enduring challenge despite comparatively better regional indicators than global averages. The UN emphasizes the vital role of water in securing the region’s food future. Rising demand for meat and dairy products is straining already scarce water resources. Outdated infrastructure, pollution, data gaps, and insufficient regional cooperation are all significant barriers to water security. To address these challenges, the report calls for investment in water-saving technologies, reuse strategies, and reduced agricultural water footprints. Achieving long-term sustainability, the UN argues, requires an integrated approach, one that links nutrition, climate adaptation, gender equality, and modern water governance. The report was developed with the input of seven UN agencies, including FAO, UNICEF, UNDP, WHO, and WMO. International partners have expressed readiness to support Tajikistan in identifying and implementing durable, systemic solutions.

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Samarkand Declaration Paves the Way for a Stronger Central Asia–EU Partnership

The inaugural Central Asia-European Union Summit, held in Samarkand on April 3-4, marked a significant milestone in strengthening ties between the two regions. According to Sherzod Asadov, press secretary to Uzbekistan's President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, the summit's most significant outcome is the adoption of the Samarkand Declaration, which is expected to provide strong momentum for expanding constructive dialogue and cooperation across all sectors. In a statement, the EU reaffirmed its "commitment to deeper cooperation in an evolving global and regional geopolitical landscape [and] upgrade relations between the European Union and Central Asia to a strategic partnership." The EU declaration also committed the bloc to respect the "sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states within the framework of all international and regional fora" and expressed readiness to "address common security challenges." Strengthening Economic Ties Economic cooperation featured prominently on the agenda. Since 2020, trade between Uzbekistan and the EU has doubled, now exceeding €6 billion. Uzbek exports to the EU have quadrupled, and the number of joint ventures has surpassed a thousand. European investment projects in Uzbekistan, meanwhile, are now valued at over €30 billion. A key development was the agreement to open a regional office of the European Investment Bank (EIB) in Tashkent. Established in 1958, the EIB is the EU’s primary financial institution, and its new office is expected to attract greater investment in green energy, modern infrastructure, and digitalization. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has also deepened its engagement in Uzbekistan, investing over €5 billion to date. “We must work together to simplify trade procedures and ensure that Central Asian products gain greater access to European markets. Only through joint efforts can we build a strong and resilient economic partnership,” Mirziyoyev told Euronews. "Over the past seven years, the trade turnover between Central Asian countries and the EU has quadrupled, amounting to 54 billion euros... The signing of the Samarkand Declaration will reflect the common aspiration of the parties to establish a strategic partnership and lay the foundation for deepening ties between our regions." During the summit, Mirziyoyev met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President António Costa. Discussions focused on trade, investment, green energy, and digital development, with the EU’s "Global Gateway” strategy, a counterpart to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a central topic. The initiative is seeking to enhance global infrastructure and connectivity while promoting sustainability and transparency. “The EU and Central Asia are becoming closer partners, and this summit marks the beginning of a new phase in our cooperation,” von der Leyen stated. An Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement between Uzbekistan and the EU is also under negotiation. Regional Dialogue Among Central Asian Leaders The Summit also offered a platform for Central Asian heads of state to hold bilateral discussions. Mirziyoyev met with his counterparts from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Talks centered on increasing trade, improving border security, and advancing major infrastructure projects. A recent landmark border agreement between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan was lauded as a breakthrough. Uzbekistan...