Tajikistan Features - The Times Of Central Asia

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C5+South Korea

South Korea Steps Up Central Asia Critical Minerals Push

The first South Korea–Central Asia summit, held in Seoul on September 16, capped three days of bilateral meetings that produced more than 70 agreements and memorandums. The leaders agreed to meet every two years, a separate C5+1 forum for industry ministers was established, and critical minerals took a central place on the new agenda. The main question now is how many of those documents will translate into mines, processing plants, and long-term contracts. South Korea needs reliable supplies of metals for its automotive, electronics, battery, and energy industries. Central Asia wants to use that demand to develop domestic processing and reduce its reliance on raw material exports. Seoul proposed combining the region’s resources with its own exploration, mineral processing, and manufacturing technologies. President Lee Jae Myung spoke of cooperation across the production chain, from identifying deposits to manufacturing finished products. Rare metals centers being established at key locations in Central Asia are intended to support joint research and specialist training. Until now, South Korea has worked with the region’s countries largely through bilateral ties. The new C5+1 format adds a regional mechanism to those relationships. Kazakhstan will host the next summit in 2028. Kazakh financier and analyst Rasul Rysmambetov believes the value of the new format will depend on the region’s ability to secure tangible industrial results. He sees South Korea as an attractive partner because of its experience with rapid industrialization and its strengths in building industrial facilities. “The priority for Central Asia is to stop selling raw materials. We need to establish processing in the region. The heads of state’s visit to Seoul was highly productive. In fact, all summits in similar formats have been productive. The main question now is how to move away from exporting raw materials and toward joint industrialization,” Rysmambetov told The Times of Central Asia. Uzbekistan put forward a broader regional proposal. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev called for an investment alliance for critical minerals, with processing clusters bringing together exploration, mining, and the production of high-value goods. Uzbekistan and South Korea are already developing a joint rare metals center and have agreed to strengthen cooperation throughout the production chain. Kazakhstan offered Korean businesses a broader package covering rare metals, nuclear and clean energy, and artificial intelligence. Urban development was also part of the talks, including the Alatau Smart City project near Almaty. The countries upgraded their ties to a comprehensive strategic partnership and signed a memorandum on the peaceful use of nuclear energy. The energy agreements also cover conventional resources. In April, South Korea said it had secured 18 million barrels of Kazakh crude oil. In Kyrgyzstan, Korean organizations are working with their Kyrgyz counterparts to identify possible antimony and tungsten projects and strengthen exploration capacity. Tajikistan is also offering cooperation on antimony, as well as precious metals, building on the first Korea–Tajikistan Minerals Forum, which took place in August. The minerals agenda is complemented by Korean willingness to invest in transport and infrastructure. South Korea and Uzbekistan agreed to expand Korean participation in...

Natural Disasters

Tajikistan Turns to Early Warning Systems as Climate Risks Grow

On the evening of May 1, a mudflow swept into residential neighborhoods in Kulob, southern Tajikistan. When water flooded a neighboring house, Mirzo Muloniezov rushed inside and managed to carry out his two-year-old grandson. The water had already reached the electrical outlets. Muloniezov was electrocuted. Neighbors pulled him from the water, but he could not be saved. In the first six months of 2026, Tajik authorities recorded 741 natural emergencies. Avalanches accounted for 508 of them, while another 123 were mudflows. Twelve people were killed, and economic damage exceeded TJS 52.8 million – about $5.7 million. Dushanbe is now discussing with the United Kingdom technologies that could give people more time before disaster strikes. On September 14, Rajabali Rahmonali, chairman of Tajikistan’s Committee for Emergency Situations and Civil Defense, met British Ambassador Katherine Smitton. Along with training rescuers and holding joint exercises, the talks covered geographic information systems (GIS), risk mapping, drones, remote monitoring, and early warning systems. These are no longer technologies for some distant future. Drones and GIS are already being used to monitor glaciers and areas exposed to mudflows. In late August, scientists from the Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia surveyed the Megdor and Khirson glaciers in the Vanjob River basin. They combined aerial surveys using drones with satellite imagery, GIS data, and hydrometeorological observations. The data allow specialists to track glacier movement and areas where new hazards could emerge. During the expedition, they also surveyed the area around the village of Votkhud after a July 19 mudflow damaged water supply and irrigation infrastructure. Particular attention is being paid to the Khirson Glacier. Its sudden surges have previously blocked river channels and created glacial lakes. Such lakes can become dangerous if a natural ice or debris dam fails, sending large volumes of water crashing into the valley below. Some early warning infrastructure is already operating in the country. In June, Tajikistan’s Agency for Hydrometeorology reported the deployment of systems used for flood forecasting and early warning. Tajikistan is also rehabilitating hydrological stations and expanding its observation network. British assistance is therefore being discussed for a system that already has some of its components in place. What remains unclear is whether the cooperation will provide additional monitoring stations, drones, software, specialist training, or a combination of these – and where any new equipment or systems would operate. Kulob shows what the existing system still lacks. Heavy rains in early May triggered floods and landslides in several parts of the country. Three people died – two were trapped beneath collapsed walls, and Muloniezov was electrocuted. His son Muloniezov Yakubchon told Asia-Plus that the mudflow arrived at around 8 p.m. Water first entered a neighboring house where children were inside, and then destroyed his family’s fence. After his father’s death, the family temporarily moved in with relatives. By May 20, 520 affected families in Kulob had received government assistance, while another 330 were still waiting. Umeda Alimova, a resident of the Qurbon Zardak neighborhood, received flour,...

Central Asia-South Korea Summit 2026

Central Asia’s First Korea Summit Produces Different Deals for Each Country

The first Central Asia-Republic of Korea Summit brought five countries to Seoul with very different records of working with Korean capital. Kazakhstan arrived with commercial agreements worth about $19 billion, while Uzbekistan is discussing multibillion-dollar financing through the state-owned Export-Import Bank of Korea. In Turkmenistan, Korean companies are expanding beyond their traditional role in the gas-chemical industry; Tajikistan is offering mineral resources; and Kyrgyzstan is establishing a dedicated government contact point to help attract Korean businesses. On September 16, the presidents of all five Central Asian states met South Korean President Lee Jae Myung together for the first time. Until now, the Korea-Central Asia Cooperation Forum, established in 2007, had operated mainly at a ministerial level. A permanent secretariat was established in 2017, and in 2020 the meetings were elevated to the level of foreign ministers. The leaders adopted the Seoul Declaration, agreeing to hold summits every two years, with Kazakhstan set to host the next in 2028. Ministerial meetings in the intervening years will review implementation and prepare the next summit’s agenda. The declaration also envisages Korea Desks across the five Central Asian countries to help businesses address administrative obstacles. The leaders expressed interest in combining Central Asian minerals with Korean technology to build joint production networks, and agreed to pursue measures to reduce non-tariff barriers. Seoul also sees Central Asia as part of its own industrial strategy. South Korea, one of the world’s leading producers of automobiles, electronics, batteries, and ships, needs stable supplies of energy and raw materials. Opening the summit, Lee spoke of combining the region’s resources with Korean exploration and processing technologies. Critical minerals, energy, and supply-chain resilience were among the main issues at the meeting. In 2025, South Korea’s trade with the five countries reached $10 billion for the first time: Korean exports totaled $8.67 billion, while imports from Central Asia amounted to $1.39 billion. Cumulative Korean investment in the region reached $6.48 billion. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan continue to account for most of this trade and investment. The talks in Seoul showed how different the next step could look in each of the five countries. [caption id="attachment_56323" align="aligncenter" width="1774"] Image: Akorda[/caption] Kazakhstan: $19 Billion in Agreements and Large-Scale Industry Kazakhstan arrived at the summit with the largest announced commercial package. On September 15, a day before the regional summit, Kazakhstan and South Korea signed around 80 agreements worth approximately $19 billion through the Kazakhstan-Korea Business Council in Seoul. About $11 billion is associated with projects involving Samruk-Kazyna, Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund, which controls major state assets in oil and gas, energy, transport, telecommunications, and uranium mining. The $19 billion figure represents the value of signed agreements and announced projects at different stages of development. Behind the headline figure are several major industrial projects. QazaqGaz and Hyundai Engineering agreed to implement a gas processing plant at Karachaganak with an annual capacity of 5 billion cubic meters. KazMunayGas and Samsung E&A signed an agreement on expanding the Pavlodar refinery’s capacity to 9 million metric tons a...

CSTO

For the CSTO, Afghanistan Might Be the Last Credible Threat

The Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization is conducting its “Rubezh (Frontier) 2026” military exercises from September 12-19. Those exercises are designed with Afghanistan in mind, a country that the CSTO has been talking about frequently in 2026, and also one where militant groups pose a shared threat to its members. And even the Taliban are no longer viewed as the threat they once were. Frontier 2026 The Frontier 2026 exercises are taking place at the Koktal training ground in southeastern Kazakhstan’s Zhetysu Province. The CSTO’s Rapid Deployment Force is practicing to repel cross-border incursions in mountain and desert terrain. The exercises come this time as concerns about infiltration by militants in Afghanistan into CIS territory are increasing. Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov said on September 8 that Russia is paying special attention to strengthening Tajikistan’s border with Afghanistan. The Tajik authorities have been calling for additional aid for the country’s border forces since a series of attacks from Afghanistan in November 2025 left five Chinese workers in southern Tajikistan dead, followed by an attack in December that killed two Tajik border guards. Tajikistan has regularly asked for international help in guarding its frontier with Afghanistan since independence in 1991. But after the violence at the end of 2025, the Tajik government appealed especially to its fellow members in the CSTO for increased assistance. CSTO Secretary General Taalatbek Masadykov said at the end of August that the first shipment of weapons and equipment would be sent to Tajikistan this autumn. Raison D’être The Collective Security Treaty was signed in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, in 1992 by representatives from Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. In 1993, Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Georgia joined. The purpose was simple. If any of the member states was attacked by an external enemy, that state could request aid, including military assistance, from the other members. In the early 1990s, there were potential enemies for the Treaty members in practically every direction. The Soviet Union had collapsed in late 1991. There were questions about how the former Communist Bloc countries and their new Western allies might act. The theocratic regime in Iran was a possible threat to the South Caucasus and Central Asia, and the latter region had unstable Afghanistan to worry about also. China was a concern for Central Asia and Russia. Back then, banding together made sense for the nine newly independent states that signed the treaty. When Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Uzbekistan dropped out in 1999, it appeared the Collective Security Treaty was on the brink of becoming irrelevant. After Vladimir Putin became Russia’s president, he put a new emphasis on a security bloc within the CIS, and in 2002, the remaining six treaty members signed a new charter. However, now, in 2026, the list of the CSTO’s potential external threats is greatly reduced. Far from being a security concern, China is now a leading trade partner for Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, and provides military assistance to all four countries. Iran’s relations with the West remain...

Podcast

Pannier and Hillard’s Spotlight on Central Asia: New Episode Out Now

As Managing Editor of The Times of Central Asia, I’m delighted that, in partnership with the Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs, we are the home of the Spotlight on Central Asia podcast. Chaired by seasoned broadcasters Bruce Pannier of RFE/RL’s long-running Majlis podcast and Michael Hillard of The Red Line, each fortnightly instalment will take you on a deep dive into the latest news, developments, security issues, and social trends across an increasingly pivotal region. This week, the team covers world leaders arriving in Bishkek for the SCO summit, one Central Asian state proposing new martial-law amendments that could concentrate enormous power in just a handful of institutions during a national crisis, Tashiev's charges being amended yet again as questions continue to grow over his political future, a Central Asian state striking an unusual military deal with a European partner, the Turkmen Border Service holding talks with its Afghan counterparts, the completion of a major new railway line in Kazakhstan, and plans to build what could become the tallest tower in the region. Before turning to our main story this week, where we look at the World Nomad Games in Kyrgyzstan and what the event tells us about the country, the region, and the way Central Asia is presenting itself to the wider world. - Jonathan Campion (British Alysh Competitor) - Stephen M. Bland (The Times of Central Asia) - K. Krombie (The Times of Central Asia) Special guests: Stephen M. Bland, Managing Editor at TCA; K. Krombie, Senior Editor at TCA, both of whom covered the event on the ground; and Jonathan Campion, who competed for Team GB in the Alysh Wrestling.

Education

New OECD Assessment Reveals Central Asia’s Student Performance

International student assessments help governments identify where students are succeeding, where they are falling behind and how learning outcomes are changing over time. The Programme for International Student Assessment, or PISA, tests how well 15-year-olds can apply what they have learned in science, mathematics and reading to real-world problems. Run by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the assessment is intended to identify weaknesses and track whether learning improves over time. The results released on September 8 show improvement in some areas, declines in others and significant gaps in the regional data. PISA 2025 placed particular emphasis on science and introduced a new assessment of computational problem-solving, part of its broader work on learning in the digital world. What the Results Show Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan participated nationally. Tajikistan was represented by Dushanbe rather than a national sample, while Turkmenistan did not participate. Participant Science Math Reading Comp. ProblemSolving Kazakhstan 420 414 385 449 Kyrgyzstan 363 364 344 388 Dushanbe, TJK 334 382 368 — Uzbekistan 438 N/A N/A 402 OECD average 482 463 461 500 Kazakhstan recorded the highest published regional scores in mathematics, reading and computational problem-solving, while Uzbekistan recorded the highest score in science. Uzbekistan’s mathematics and reading results were not published, preventing a complete comparison across the three core subjects. Central Asia remained below OECD averages, but Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan scored higher than several EU member states in some subjects. Across OECD countries, average mathematics and reading performance fell to the lowest levels yet recorded by PISA. Science was comparatively stable. What Changed The latest scores and the longer-term trends do not always point in the same direction. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan both participated in PISA in 2022, while Kyrgyzstan’s previous participation was in 2009. Country ComparisonPeriod Science Math Reading Kazakhstan 2022–2025 −4 −12 −1 Kyrgyzstan 2009–2025 +33 +33 +30 Uzbekistan 2022–2025 +83 N/A N/A Kazakhstan’s mathematics score fell by about 12 points from 2022, a statistically significant decline for the country. Its smaller declines in science and reading were not statistically significant. Kyrgyzstan improved in mathematics, reading and science compared with its previous participation. The gains cover 16 years rather than a single PISA cycle. Uzbekistan recorded the largest movement in the regional results. Its science score rose from 355 in 2022 to 438 in 2025, an increase of 83 points. That was also the largest science gain among education systems with comparable results worldwide and more than twice the next-largest increase of 38 points. What Other Assessments Show Other international assessments help put the larger changes in context. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan were the only Central Asian countries to participate in the 2023 Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study, or TIMSS. The assessment tests younger students and uses a different methodology from PISA. Among eighth-graders, Kazakhstan scored 443 in science and Uzbekistan 396. Two years later, PISA recorded science scores of 420 for Kazakhstan and 438 for Uzbekistan. The assessments cover different students and testing methods, so the scores cannot be compared directly....