Turkmenistan Features - The Times Of Central Asia

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Central Asia Poised to Outpace Global Growth in 2025, IMF Projects (With One Exception)

The year 2025 is anticipated to bring moderate growth for the global economy, according to forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Global GDP is projected to grow by 3.2%, reaching $115.3 trillion at current prices. While global growth is expected to remain stable, it is weaker than initially forecast. The IMF notes that the economic outlook for the United States has improved, but growth expectations for other advanced economies, particularly in Europe, have been downgraded. Emerging markets and developing economies continue to grapple with a range of challenges, including production disruptions, shipping delays, geopolitical conflicts, civil unrest, and extreme weather events. These factors have tempered growth prospects in regions such as the Middle East, Central Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast, emerging Asia is experiencing robust growth, fueled by strong demand for semiconductors and electronics, underpinned by substantial investments in artificial intelligence. Additionally, public investment in China and India is driving regional economic expansion. However, the IMF forecasts that global growth will average 3.1% annually over the next five years, a pace slower than pre-pandemic levels. Global Economic Highlights In 2025, the United States is expected to retain its position as the world’s largest economy, with a GDP of $30.3 trillion at current prices. China will follow with $19.5 trillion, while Germany is projected to rank third at $4.9 trillion. Japan and India will occupy fourth and fifth places, with GDPs of $4.4 trillion and $4.3 trillion, respectively. Central Asia Outlook In Central Asia, Uzbekistan’s economy is forecast to expand by 5.7%, reaching $127.4 billion at current prices, according to the IMF. This growth rate positions Uzbekistan as one of the region’s fastest-growing economies. Kazakhstan, the largest economy in Central Asia, is expected to achieve 4.6% growth, with GDP reaching $306.6 billion. Kyrgyzstan’s GDP is forecast to grow by 5%, reaching $17.3 billion at current prices. Tajikistan’s economy is expected to grow by 4.5%, with GDP projected at $14.1 billion. Turkmenistan is forecast to experience slower growth, with its GDP increasing by 2.3% to reach $91.1 billion.

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Turkmenistan Strengthens Cooperation with IAEA to Equip New Cancer Center

Turkmenistan is deepening its collaboration with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to advance nuclear medicine, as announced by Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, Chairman of the Halk Maslahaty (People's Council). The announcement came during his visit to the construction site of the new International Scientific and Clinical Center for Oncology in Ashgabat, as reported by the TDH news agency. Berdimuhamedov highlighted the importance of consulting with IAEA experts to ensure the center’s safe operation, particularly in handling radioactive waste. He stressed that equipping the facility with state-of-the-art technology is essential for meeting high standards in cancer treatment. The new center, under construction in the Choganly district in northern Ashgabat, will have a capacity of 500 beds. It will feature specialized departments for the diagnosis, treatment, and rehabilitation of cancer patients. Berdimuhamedov also emphasized the need to develop highly skilled medical personnel for the center. Medical professionals will be offered training opportunities in leading international clinics and encouraged to collaborate with foreign specialists. The facility aims to build strong partnerships with specialized medical institutions both within Turkmenistan and abroad. “International cooperation, particularly with the IAEA, is vital in the fight against cancer. Strengthening these ties is a key factor in the effective operation of the new center,” Berdimuhamedov stated. The oncology center is set to greatly enhance Turkmenistan’s healthcare system by providing advanced cancer care and contributing to global progress in nuclear medicine and cancer research.

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Turkmen Authorities Prevent Turkmen-Turkish Family Reunifications

Turkish citizens have reported difficulties faced by their wives, citizens of Turkmenistan, who have been banned from leaving the country after renewing their passports. Women who returned to Turkmenistan to apply for new passports have been denied exit at Ashgabat airport. Authorities cited violations of the “legislation of the country of stay,” referencing paragraph 9 of part 1 of Article 30 of Turkmenistan’s Law On Migration. This law prohibits citizens who have previously violated the laws of the country of stay from leaving Turkmenistan for five years. However, no explanation has been provided for why this regulation applies to the affected women. Turkish spouses insist their wives did not violate any laws abroad and were legally residing in Turkey. Arslan Rustem, a Turkish citizen, shared his experience: “I married a Turkmen citizen in July 2022. My wife was legally living in Turkey, but when her passport expired, she returned to Turkmenistan to replace it. After receiving a new document, she was not allowed to leave.” Rustem emphasized that there were no legal issues with their marriage or residency. Similarly, Mahmut Uchar encountered the same problem. He was advised by the Turkmen Consulate in Istanbul that his wife must travel to Turkmenistan to renew her passport after changing her surname. “We were assured the entire process would take no more than a month. But a year later, my wife is still unable to return to Turkey,” he explained. This predicament has impacted dozens of families. Women have filed complaints with various government agencies in Turkmenistan, including the Presidential Administration, but no resolution has been provided. Appeals from Turkish organizations advocating for family reunification have also gone unanswered. The Migration Service of Turkmenistan has not commented on the legal basis for applying the travel restriction. Husbands of the affected women have expressed confusion and frustration, believing that these actions infringe upon their families’ rights. Turkmenistan frequently restricts its citizens’ travel abroad for a variety of reasons. These measures include travel bans on individuals with outstanding bank loans, parents of minor children, and citizens whose relatives have criminal records spanning three generations. Passports are often confiscated at airports until debts are paid in full. The government has also imposed restrictions following incidents involving Turkmen citizens abroad, citing security concerns. These policies have drawn criticism from human rights activists, who have called on Turkmen authorities to lift unwarranted restrictions on freedom of movement.

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Central Asia Faces Devastating $9 Billion Annual Loss from Climate Crises

Central Asia faces a complex mix of development challenges, according to a study conducted by the Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA). These include global issues such as climate change, rising inequality, and demographic shifts, alongside regional concerns like water crises, aging infrastructure, border conflicts, and lack of access to sea routes. The region’s challenges can be categorized into external and internal risks. Since gaining independence, Central Asia has been shaped by the influence of global powers. Trade, security, energy, and education ties with Russia remain strong, while China’s Belt and Road Initiative has led to significant investment in infrastructure. Western nations and multinational corporations are active primarily in the raw materials sector, particularly in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. While these international connections drive economic growth, they also heighten the region’s vulnerability to global shocks. For example, heavy reliance on remittances from migrant workers and low export diversification increase economic fragility. Climate change poses one of the most pressing threats to the region. Natural disasters—including floods, which affect about one million people annually, and earthquakes, impacting two million - result in $9 billion in annual GDP losses. Rising temperatures are expected to exacerbate issues such as water scarcity, droughts, heat waves, and the loss of agricultural land. Adopting sustainable development practices and green technologies could help mitigate these effects. Aging water and energy infrastructure is a major hurdle for the region. Energy insecurity, compounded by climate change, limits economic potential. Despite a rise in foreign investment from $1.5 billion in 2000 to $7.4 billion in 2023, the majority of funds are concentrated in raw materials, with only a small share allocated to infrastructure improvements. Transport development is equally critical. The lack of sea access places Central Asia at a 20% developmental disadvantage compared to coastal nations. Expanding roads, railways, and logistics hubs could significantly enhance regional and international trade. Territorial disputes, particularly around enclaves, remain a source of periodic clashes, with the Kyrgyz-Tajik border clashes of 2022 being a notable example. While these conflicts may not immediately affect economic stability, escalations could damage the region’s investment climate and trade prospects. A peace agreement signed later in 2022 has helped to stabilize the situation. Additionally, the situation in Afghanistan continues to present challenges, including terrorism, refugee flows, and border security concerns. These risks intensified following the regime change in Afghanistan in 2021, increasing the urgency for stronger border controls. Addressing these interconnected challenges will require coordinated efforts among all Central Asian nations. International organizations and major global partners must also play a role by supporting infrastructure and technological modernization. Such collaboration is essential to mitigating economic risks and fostering long-term development in the region.

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Turkmenistan Bans Students from Celebrating New Year’s Eve

Authorities in Turkmenistan have imposed strict measures preventing students and schoolchildren from celebrating New Year’s Eve, requiring them to sign written pledges to abstain from festivities. Students are prohibited from hosting or attending parties at home or in cafes and are barred from being outdoors during the celebration. “Students have been forced to write forms stating they will not celebrate New Year’s Eve and will return to their dormitories after attending official events,” a source revealed. Violations of the ban are met with threats of expulsion. According to reports, older students in previous years were expelled for secretly hosting parties, serving as a warning to others. Similar restrictions are being enforced in schools across Ashgabat, where festive parties have been banned following an order from the Ministry of Education. Teachers have been instructed to ensure compliance with these regulations. Paradoxically, official state media in Turkmenistan are showcasing large-scale New Year preparations, including the lighting of the “Main Christmas Tree of the Country” on December 14. Despite the visible holiday decorations, New Year celebrations remain tightly controlled. Last year, schools and kindergartens canceled New Year events, and state institutions were prohibited from installing Christmas trees. Local analysts attribute these stringent measures to the conservative policies of President Serdar Berdimuhamedov. Unlike his father, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, who was known for extravagant celebrations and even personal performances at New Year’s events, Serdar has opted for a more restrained and controlled approach. The restrictions reflect the growing emphasis on regulation and conformity under Turkmenistan’s current leadership, casting a shadow over what was once a more festive and unifying holiday.

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Turkmenistan’s Geopolitical Shift Toward the West

Turkmenistan, whose foreign policy since 1995 has been based on the principle of permanent neutrality, is reportedly seeking to establish closer ties with the West, primarily with the United States. The energy-rich nation has long expressed an intention to export natural gas to Europe, but its leadership’s recent moves suggest that Ashgabat might also aim to develop closer political and economic relations with Western countries. Over the past few months, Turkmen and American officials have held several very important meetings. Most recently, on November 25, Turkmenistan’s President Serdar Berdimuhamedov hosted Steve Daines, U.S. Senator from Montana and member of the U.S. Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources. The fact that the Turkmen leader told the American politician that Ashgabat is “implementing a strategy for diversifying energy export routes” clearly shows that Turkmenistan’s ambition to begin exporting natural gas to Europe was on the agenda. But energy was unlikely the only reason why Daines came to Ashgabat. He also met with the Turkmen Minister of Foreign Affairs Rashid Meredov, with whom he discussed “key aspects of partnership cooperation in political and diplomatic, trade and economic, cultural, humanitarian and other spheres.” According to reports, “the active dynamics of development of political ties at the highest state level was emphasized,” indicating that Turkmenistan has begun implementing its 2023 plan to strengthen ties with the United States. Moreover, as a result of the U.S. Senator’s visit to Ashgabat, a meeting of the Turkmenistan-US Business Council is scheduled to take place later this month. One of the reasons why the Turkmen authorities seek deeper economic ties with Washington is because they hope that such an approach can help their country join the World Trade Organization (WTO). On November 20-22, just days before Daines’ visit to Turkmenistan, the Ministry of Finance and Economy organized a training seminar as part of the country's preparation for joining the WTO. Interestingly enough, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) “made a significant contribution to the event's preparation”, while the U.S. Ambassador to Turkmenistan Elizabeth Rood attended the seminar. The United States undoubtedly sees Turkmenistan as an important regional actor. In February, American companies including John Deere, Boeing, Exxon Mobil, and General Electric met with the Turkmen business delegation in Washington, discussing various forms of cooperation. Nine months later, on November 6, Rahimberdi Dzhepbarov, Chairman of the Board of the State Bank for Foreign Economic Activity of Turkmenistan, was on a working visit to Washington to discuss “issues of further strengthening economic and environmental cooperation with the United States.” The following day, according to the Turkmen Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the U.S. “highly praised Turkmenistan's achievements in fulfilling its international commitments on climate change.” But Washington did not always have such a positive view on Turkmenistan. In 2018, in an annual State Department report, Ashgabat was criticized for "alleged torture, arbitrary arrests and detentions, involuntary confinement, imprisonment of political prisoners, severe corruption, lack of free and fair elections, and restrictions on freedom of religion, assembly, and movement.” Also, in...