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Caspian Region

War Reaches the Caspian: Central Asia Faces Growing Regional Risk

The United States and Israel's war with Iran began on February 28, 2026. The intensity of the conflict has fluctuated, but daily reports of missile strikes and explosions are increasingly resonating across Central Asia. Meanwhile, Russia’s latest war against Ukraine has continued for 1,466 days since it began on February 24, 2022. Late last year, Ukrainian drones reportedly struck a Russian oil platform at the Filanovsky field in the Caspian Sea, more than 700 kilometers from Ukraine’s nearest border. Ukraine also said the operation targeted the patrol ship Okhotnik, although the extent of the damage was not independently verified. The war in Ukraine has also created serious challenges for Kazakhstan’s oil exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). Repeated attacks and disruptions have threatened export flows, increased logistical risks, and added pressure on Kazakhstan’s budget revenues. The war against Iran has now brought military action to the Caspian coast of Iran, raising concern for energy producers and transit routes across the wider region. On March 5, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that drones launched from Iranian territory struck the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. According to the ministry, one drone hit the terminal building at Nakhchivan International Airport, while another crashed near a school in the village of Shekerabad. Azerbaijan demanded a thorough investigation. Iran later stated that it had promised to investigate the incident. Azerbaijan’s Prosecutor General’s Office subsequently opened a criminal case. As of now, tensions remain high, with both sides continuing to exchange accusations, and Azerbaijan maintaining heightened alert measures. More recently, the Israeli Defense Forces confirmed carrying out airstrikes in northern Iran, targeting naval vessels in the port city of Bandar-Anzali on the Caspian coast. The straight-line distance from Bandar-Anzali to Azerbaijan’s capital, Baku, is just over 300 kilometers, and approximately 420 kilometers to Turkmenbashi, a major international seaport and the center of Turkmenistan’s oil-refining industry. The resort zone of Avaza is also located there. By comparison, the distance from Israel to Bandar-Anzali exceeds 1,300 kilometers. These developments are contributing to rising economic uncertainty across Central Asia. The consequences extend beyond transportation and logistics disruptions, with broader implications for regional economies. The U.S. and Israel have not always appeared aligned on what would constitute victory, meaning the measure of success remains difficult to gauge. While the United States and Israel have repeatedly stated that significant damage has been inflicted on Iran’s military infrastructure (including destroying a substantial part of the Iranian navy), there is no publicly available, independently verified evidence confirming the extent of the damage to Iran’s leadership structure following the death of Ali Khamenei, Ali Larijani and other senior Iranian figures, or on Iran’s ability to mount an effective defence. Analysts have described Iran’s military resilience as decentralized, sometimes using the term "mosaic defense," meaning units can continue operating under standing orders even when senior leadership is hit. It is understood that, as part of this strategy, the Iranian military has spent decades refining its ability to operate as independent nodes, each equipped to conduct strikes under...

Diplomatic Talks

Xi Jinping and Berdymuhamedov Sr. Discuss Expansion of China-Turkmenistan Partnership

Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks with Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov, Turkmenistan's former president and leader of its People's Council, during the latter’s official visit to China. The meeting took place on March 18 at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, according to a statement from China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Xi noted that China had recently completed its annual parliamentary meetings, commonly referred to as the “Two Sessions,” during which key socio-economic priorities were outlined. He said the country’s new development agenda would support modernization efforts and create additional opportunities for international cooperation. The Chinese president said that mutual political support remains central to the comprehensive strategic partnership between Beijing and Ashgabat. He reaffirmed China’s readiness to continue backing Turkmenistan on issues related to sovereignty, territorial integrity, and its internationally recognized policy of permanent neutrality. Xi and Berdymuhamedov discussed expanding cooperation in the energy sector, particularly natural gas supplies, as well as in trade, investment, transport connectivity, agriculture, artificial intelligence, the digital economy, and clean energy. Both leaders also highlighted the importance of aligning China’s Belt and Road Initiative with Turkmenistan’s plans to revitalize historic Silk Road trade routes. Humanitarian cooperation was another focus of the talks, including plans to develop educational and cultural exchanges and establish joint centers. The leaders also discussed coordination on regional security challenges, including efforts to counter terrorism, separatism, and extremism. Berdymuhamedov reaffirmed Turkmenistan’s commitment to the One China principle and expressed readiness to deepen bilateral cooperation in energy, infrastructure, and trade. He said closer ties with China were important for Turkmenistan’s long-term economic development and again noted Beijing’s support for the country’s neutrality policy. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi also attended the meeting. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, the visit followed Berdymuhamedov’s trip to the United States in mid-February, the details of which were not fully disclosed. Shortly after his return, Turkmenistan’s President, Gurbanguly's son Serdar Berdymuhamedov, dismissed the country’s ambassador to the U.S. and its permanent representative to the United Nations. No official explanation was provided for the personnel changes.

World Trade Organization

Turkmenistan Steps Up Preparations for WTO Membership Amid Economic Growth

Turkmenistan is intensifying efforts to integrate into the global trading system, with officials reaffirming the country’s intention to move towards membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO). The announcement was made by Deputy Minister of Finance and Economy Perhat Yagshiyev during the forum “Investing in Turkmenistan’s Future,” according to local media reports. Yagshiyev said the accession process is progressing in a structured manner. A draft memorandum on the country’s foreign trade regime has been prepared, while WTO standards are being introduced gradually in cooperation with the organisation’s Secretariat and international partners. Authorities also point to positive macroeconomic trends. Official data indicate that Turkmenistan’s gross domestic product exceeded $77.4 billion in 2025, reflecting growth of 6.3%. Investment volumes reached more than $12.8 billion, up 6% year-on-year, while inflation reportedly declined to 3.2%. External debt remains below 3% of GDP, and officials say the country has not recorded domestic public debt since January 2022. Foreign trade turnover rose by 10.3% to $21.8 billion. The oil and gas sector, petrochemicals, energy, construction and agriculture continue to be highlighted by the government as priority areas for foreign investment. Transport infrastructure development remains a central component of economic policy. Turkmenistan is participating in several international logistics initiatives, including the Trans-Caspian corridor, the North-South transport route and the Lazurite corridor. The third phase of the Ashgabat-Turkmenabat highway is expected to be completed in 2026, which authorities say will strengthen the country’s role as a regional transit hub. Preparations for WTO accession are also linked to the modernisation of trade procedures. Galina Romanova, a representative of the Ministry of Finance and Economy, previously stated that improving trade facilitation is a key priority. “We are taking consistent steps to modernise customs procedures and introduce digital solutions that make trade faster and more transparent,” she said. Turkmenistan was granted observer status in the WTO on July 22, 2020, following a decision by the organisation’s General Council in Geneva.

Middle East Crisis

Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan Send Humanitarian Aid to Iran

Tajikistan is sending a convoy of 110 trucks carrying humanitarian aid to Iran, which has been targeted by heavy U.S. and Israeli air strikes in a war that started on February 28. The dispatch of aid follows similar deliveries by Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan. Central Asian countries are aiming for neutrality in the Mideast war, maintaining ties with the Iranian government even as they profess support for Gulf Arab states that have been targeted by Iranian drones and missiles. Iran’s relationships with countries to the east range from the close cultural affinity that it enjoys with Tajikistan to sometimes tense interactions with Azerbaijan, which has a military partnership with Israel. The trucks from Tajikistan left for Iran on Wednesday and “will soon arrive in the friendly and brotherly country,” Tajikistan’s government said, without providing details about how the aid will be distributed. The convoy would likely travel through Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan to reach the northeastern Iranian border. The aid “comprises 3,610 tons of cargo, including 45 tons of medicines, a large volume of sanitary and hygienic products, children's clothing, various food products, household items, bedding, tents, building materials, and other necessary supplies,” Tajikistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said. Tajik President Emomali Rahmon posted a photo on social media that showed a long line of aid trucks on a highway. Turkmenistan, which shares a border with Iran, has said it sent humanitarian aid, mainly for distribution to children. It appeared to allude to the war, saying that “supporting and assisting close neighbors in difficult times is a noble tradition of the Turkmen people, rooted in ancient times.” Uzbekistan has sent trucks carrying flour, rice, sugar, pasta, sunflower oil, canned goods and medical supplies to Iran. Azerbaijan, which borders northwest Iran, has also dispatched truckloads of humanitarian aid to Iran, according to Ali Alizada, Azerbaijan’s ambassador to Iran. Azerbaijan previously said it was evacuating staff from its embassy in Tehran as well as its consulate in the Iranian city of Tabriz, after accusing Iran of drone attacks on its territory.

Armed Forces

Turkmenistan’s Army Facing a Growing Exodus of Personnel

Turkmenistan’s Ministry of Defense is attempting to halt mass resignations among officers. Military personnel who have left their units without permission are being offered the opportunity to return to service on the condition that they are transferred to their home region. However, this measure has so far produced little effect and does not address the army’s core problems. Turkmenistan’s Minister of Defense, Begench Gundogdyyev, has sought to revise the government’s approach to the personnel crisis in the armed forces. At a meeting with unit commanders reviewing the results of the first two months of 2026, he addressed the issue of widespread officer resignations. Several commanders reportedly asked him to approve discharge requests for subordinates who had not reported to their units for an extended period. According to a source cited by turkmen.news, the minister reacted sharply and stated that he would not sign any such documents. “Lock them up in the armoury if you must, but don’t let them leave the army,” the source quoted him as saying. A few days after the meeting, some officers reportedly received phone calls from the Ministry of Defense offering them the chance to return to duty. In exchange, they were promised transfers to their home region. Such a practice had not existed previously. Since Soviet times, military personnel were typically assigned to serve in regions other than their own so that, in the event of unrest, they would defend state authority rather than side with local populations. Now, an exception has been made for those seeking discharge after leaving their units without permission, in some cases for more than a year. However, according to sources, almost no one has accepted the offer, and the number of officers wishing to leave the army continues to grow. Officers cite housing as the main problem. Two years ago, a ministerial order abolished the option to privatize service housing, which had previously been available based on length of service. Following this decision, the outflow of personnel reportedly intensified. About a year ago, the Ministry of Defense proposed that officers purchase newly built apartments with their own funds, requiring them to cover 100% of the cost while also prohibiting subsequent resale. Many officers view these conditions as unreasonable. According to them, several years of work abroad, for example in Russia, make it possible to save enough money to buy a home, a car, and secure their children’s future. Military personnel also report insufficient pay, hazing, and corruption affecting not only conscripts but officers as well. As a result, some officers who are unable to formally resign reportedly remain in service until retirement age. Sources claim that morale and discipline in the armed forces have deteriorated to such an extent that any conflict with commanders can prompt an officer to submit a resignation request and stop reporting for duty. The problems facing Turkmenistan’s armed forces come amid broader regional tensions. On February 27, Pakistan’s defense minister, Khawaja Asif, announced what he described as the start of an “open war”...

Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov

Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov’s U.S. and Germany Trip Draws Attention to Diplomatic Reshuffle

In mid-February, Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov, former president of Turkmenistan and current chairman of the Halk Maslahaty (the People's Council of Turkmenistan), visited the United States. State media reported extensively on the trip, although some details of the visit and its outcomes were not publicly clarified. Shortly after Berdymuhamedov’s return, President Serdar Berdymuhamedov, his son, dismissed Turkmenistan’s ambassador to the United States and the country’s permanent representative to the United Nations. No official explanation for the change was provided. According to official reports, Berdymuhamedov held meetings with executives of Nicklaus Companies, including its leadership, as well as representatives of the Turkmenistan-U.S. Business Council. The company was founded by American golfer Jack Nicklaus. During the visit, Berdymuhamedov also toured several golf facilities and visited an equestrian complex, where he was briefed on horse care and training practices. He additionally met with a number of U.S. business figures, including entrepreneurs Steve Wynn and Isaac Perlmutter, as well as William Koch, chairman of Oxbow Group. Discussions were also held with representatives of agricultural equipment manufacturer John Deere regarding potential cooperation in Central Asia. Golf and equestrian projects Interest in golf has been growing in Turkmenistan in recent years. The Ashgabat Golf Club, opened in 2017, is promoted by officials as a flagship recreational facility in the capital. Plans have also been announced to expand golf infrastructure in the Avaza National Tourist Zone, where Berdymuhamedov has previously instructed authorities to consider the construction of additional courses. On his return journey from the United States, Berdymuhamedov made a stop in Germany, where he reportedly discussed preparations for the 2026 FEI World Equestrian Championships in Aachen and an Akhal-Teke horse beauty contest scheduled to take place in the Netherlands. Unconfirmed reports and diplomatic changes Some media outlets reported that Berdymuhamedov’s visit coincided with a weekend stay by U.S. President Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago residence. Reports also suggested that a planned meeting did not take place, although no official confirmation has been provided. Separate reports by independent Turkmen media claimed that Berdymuhamedov’s aircraft sustained technical damage during the trip and that another government aircraft was dispatched from Ashgabat. These claims have not been officially confirmed. Personnel changes in Turkmenistan’s diplomatic service followed the visit. Veteran diplomat Aksoltan Atayeva was relieved of her post as the country’s representative to the United Nations, while Esen Aidogdyev was reassigned to the embassy in Washington. Independent media have also previously reported allegations regarding property holdings by former ambassador Meret Orazov in the United States. These claims have not been publicly addressed by Turkmen authorities.