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Consumer Prices

Prices in Turkmenistan Rise Sharply Due to the Situation in the Middle East

Military activity in neighboring Iran has begun to directly affect Turkmenistan’s economy. Disruptions to supplies from a key trading partner have triggered a sharp increase in prices for food, household chemicals, building materials, and cigarettes. According to retailers, this may only be the beginning as existing stocks are running low and prices continue to climb. Despite having domestic production, Turkmenistan remains heavily dependent on imports from Iran, particularly for food products, household chemicals, and construction materials. The conflict in Iran has disrupted established logistics routes, causing prices for several categories of goods to rise significantly across Turkmenistan. Vegetables and citrus fruits have seen some of the steepest increases. Prices for potatoes and cucumbers have risen by three to three-and-a-half times, while citrus fruits have become about 50% more expensive. Cigarette prices have already increased by roughly 40%, and traders warn that further rises are likely. At the end of February, a kilogram of potatoes imported from Iran cost between $1.45 and $1.74 in Ashgabat. The price has now risen to $4.93 per kilogram. A similar trend has been observed for cucumbers, whose price increased from $2.32 to $4.93 per kilogram. Citrus fruits have become even more expensive. Oranges have risen in price from $2.61 to $5.22 per kilogram, while mandarins have increased from $3.48 to $6.38. Residents of Turkmenistan are also facing higher prices for household chemicals. Although the increase has not yet been as dramatic, retailers say the upward trend is clear. Tobacco products have also risen significantly in price, with cigarettes increasing by an average of about 35%. The construction sector has also been affected. Prices for cement, wood, metal, and other building materials have increased by around 40%. These increases are linked to disruptions in established supply routes. Some construction materials were previously imported from the United Arab Emirates via Iran. Businesses are now being forced to search for alternative logistics routes, including through Georgia and Azerbaijan, which significantly increases transportation costs. On March 4, customs regulation issues were discussed at a meeting of Turkmenistan’s Security Council. However, according to a report by the state news agency TDH, the head of the State Customs Service, Maksat Khudaygulyev, did not address the current supply disruptions. His remarks focused on the planned development of the agency. Price increases linked to events in Iran are not new for Turkmenistan. A similar situation was observed in the summer during the 12-day war. Supply problems also emerged in the fall of 2024, when Iran temporarily closed its border. During that period, vegetable oil prices increased significantly and shortages were reported.

Natural Gas

Turkmen Natural Gas Could Supplement Azeri Supplies to Europe via the Southern Gas Corridor

Turkmenistan views the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline project as one of the most important directions for diversifying its energy exports and strengthening energy security on the European continent, Turkmenistan’s former president Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov said in an interview with the Al Arabiya television channel during his visit to the United States in February, according to official Turkmen media. The Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline is a proposed infrastructure project designed to transport natural gas from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan across the Caspian Sea, where it could connect to the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC). The SGC is intended to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian gas and diversify the continent’s energy supplies by bringing natural gas from the Caspian region to European markets. Its primary supply source is Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz gas field in the Caspian Sea. The corridor stretches from Azerbaijan through Georgia and Türkiye to Greece, Albania, and Italy. Turkmenistan is widely viewed as a potential additional supplier for the SGC, which could become increasingly important if Azerbaijani gas alone proves insufficient to meet rising European demand. Berdymuhamedov said that progress on the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline requires resolving international legal issues, particularly those related to the delimitation of the Caspian seabed. A Turkmen-Azerbaijani working commission has been established for this purpose. “We hope that its work will yield significant practical results,” he said. Berdymuhamedov also emphasized Turkmenistan’s large hydrocarbon resources, noting that the country ranks fourth globally in proven natural gas reserves. “For some time in the past, the bulk of Turkmen natural gas exports went to Russia, which received up to 40 billion cubic meters per year. Currently, China is our main gas buyer, with supply volumes at roughly the same level,” Berdymuhamedov said. He added that Turkmenistan’s policy of diversification allows the country to supply gas within the region through swap arrangements involving Iran and Azerbaijan, as well as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and other neighboring states. Turkey is also considered a key link for potential Turkmen gas exports to Europe. Turkish Vice President Fuat Oktay previously said that, in cooperation with Azerbaijan, Turkmen natural gas could be transported through the Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP), which runs across Türkiye and forms the central segment of the Southern Gas Corridor. Oktay expressed confidence that negotiations between Turkey's Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources, the Turkish state energy company BOTAŞ, and Turkmenistan’s state-owned gas producer, Türkmengaz, could soon produce positive results. He also stated that Turkish state companies are ready to participate in the development of hydrocarbon resources at the jointly developed Turkmen-Azerbaijani Dostluk field in the Caspian Sea. Speaking at the 12th Ministerial Meeting of the Southern Gas Corridor Advisory Council in Baku on March 3, Zafer Demircan, Turkey's Deputy Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, highlighted the corridor’s strategic importance. “There is a strong common understanding of the crucial role of the Southern Gas Corridor in achieving long-term energy supply security,” Demircan said. “This valuable concept is evolving toward a Green Energy Corridor linking states in the Caucasus and Central Asia with Europe. Türkiye...

Iran

Evacuation Through Turkmenistan: Dozens of Foreigners Leave Iran as Assistance Conditions Vary

Amid the ongoing military conflict involving Iran, foreign nationals have begun leaving the country by land. One of the main evacuation routes has been through neighboring Turkmenistan, although the conditions for departure and the level of assistance provided to citizens of different countries have varied. Foreign citizens began leaving Iran after strikes were launched on its territory. With Iranian airspace closed, evacuation has only been possible by land. According to diplomatic sources in Kazakhstan, Russia, Uzbekistan, and South Korea, about 60 foreign nationals have already left Iran via Turkmenistan. Kazakhstan’s Minister of Transport, Nurlan Sauranbayev, said that on March 2, 18 Kazakh citizens were successfully evacuated from the northern Iranian city of Gorgan. The closest available route was through the Turkmen border. According to the minister, Turkmen authorities granted permission for the group to cross the border, although the specific checkpoint used was not disclosed. Serakhs remains the main transit crossing in this direction, while other checkpoints remained closed until March 2. On the same day, a group of eight Russian citizens crossed the border through the Serakhs checkpoint. According to Igor Samoshkin, head of the consular department of the Russian Embassy, Turkmen officials met the arrivals at the border and arranged transportation to Ashgabat as well as hotel accommodation. Russian diplomats later assisted the group with further travel arrangements. On March 3, the group flew home on an S7 Airlines flight. On March 3, 13 citizens of Uzbekistan crossed the border in an organized manner through the same Serakhs checkpoint. According to the Dunyo news agency, they were met by Uzbek embassy staff in official vehicles. After the Gaudan-Bajgiran crossing opened, diplomats also began meeting their citizens there. However, the subsequent route taken by the Uzbek nationals was not specified. There are currently no direct flights between Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, and the distance from Serakhs to the nearest land crossing between the two countries, Farab-Alat, is about 460 kilometers. On the same day, a group of 23 South Korean citizens entered Turkmenistan. According to The Korea Times, they were accompanied by South Korean diplomats throughout their transit in the country before departing from Ashgabat on individual flights. Representatives of the South Korean embassy noted the prompt response of Turkmenistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as assistance with immigration procedures, consular support, accommodation, and flight reservations. Foreign citizens require a visa to transit through Turkmenistan, and this requirement has not been completely waived even during the evacuation. As Russian diplomat Igor Samoshkin explained, those seeking to leave Iran through Turkmenistan must first contact their country’s embassy in Iran and submit documents for a visa. The diplomatic mission then sends a request to the Turkmen authorities, after which further coordination takes place between Ashgabat and the relevant embassies accredited in Turkmenistan. Turkmen authorities directly accompanied only the Russian citizens. For other foreign nationals, their respective diplomatic missions were responsible for organizing further travel arrangements. The reasons for the differences in the level of assistance have not been publicly explained. It...

CA5+UK

UK Expands Strategic Engagement in Central Asia Amid Growing Global Competition

The world’s largest economies have recently increased their focus on Central Asia. The United Kingdom, alongside the U.S., the European Union, and China, is seeking to strengthen partnerships in a region that was previously not among its top foreign policy priorities. Britain Replicates an Established Format Throughout the years of independence, Kazakhstan and its regional neighbors were often perceived as operating within Russia’s sphere of influence. The war in Ukraine and broader geopolitical shifts have altered international attitudes toward Central Asia. Major powers are now intensifying dialogue with the region, with particular emphasis on economic cooperation. At the end of February, foreign ministers met in London under the Central Asia-UK (CA5+1) format. Although this was the first meeting of its kind in the British capital, the format mirrors similar mechanisms already used by the U.S., the European Union, Russia, China, and Japan. Participants noted that the CA5+1 format has proven to be an effective mechanism for structured and substantive engagement with external partners. The regional agenda is addressed comprehensively, reflecting Central Asian priorities while creating additional opportunities to advance economic initiatives and implement joint projects. Particular attention has been paid to trade diversification, industrial cooperation, sustainable infrastructure development, and unlocking Central Asia’s potential in critical minerals and renewable energy. The meeting also covered economic growth prospects, key challenges facing Central Asian economies, and the expansion of trade and investment. Logistics was a central topic, including the development of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, widely known as the Middle Corridor. British Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper emphasized the strategic importance of Central Asia as a dynamically developing region characterized by sustained economic growth, expanding regional cooperation, and a growing role in international affairs. According to the British participants, the region’s countries are pursuing a pragmatic approach, strengthening connectivity and expanding their participation in shaping a modern architecture of economic and political cooperation. Education and Finance Interest in British education continues to grow across all five Central Asian countries. Four branches of British universities are operating in Kazakhstan, and nearly 6,000 students have earned British degrees through the Bolashak international scholarship program. Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan have announced plans to establish international financial centers modeled on the Astana International Financial Centre in Kazakhstan. British Ambassador to Uzbekistan Timothy Smart said that work is underway to create an international financial center in Tashkent based on international arbitration standards. Like the Astana model, the new center will operate under English common law. British Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan Nicholas Bowler highlighted London’s role in assisting with legislation for the International Dispute Resolution Center, which will operate under English law and be located in the Issyk-Kul region. Greater participation by Central Asian companies on the London Stock Exchange is also anticipated. Logistics and Resources British diplomats have placed particular emphasis on cooperation in critical minerals, a priority within the United Kingdom’s global strategy. Projects are underway across the region, accompanied by new agreements and industrial partnerships. Agreements have reportedly been reached between the Kazakh producer Zhezkazganredmet and the British...

Iran

Central Asia Updates from Mideast Conflict

Kazakhstan has expressed sorrow over the deaths of young students in what appeared to be an air strike that hit a girls’ primary school in the southern Iranian city of Minab. “I received the news of the death of 160 schoolgirls in Iran - with deep distress. The interruption of the lives of children, who must get education and step into the future on a peaceful day, is an irreplaceable tragedy for all humanity,” Education Minister Zhuldyz Suleimenova said on Facebook on Monday. “As a parent, I believe that children should never be victims of any kind of conflict, or political disputes,” Suleimenova said. “Their safety and well-being is one of the most important values for the international community and for every state.” Health officials and state media in Iran have reported a higher death toll of at least 175 in the destruction at the school on Saturday, saying most of the dead were probably children. The U.S. military said it was looking into reports of civilian casualties during its operations against the Iranian government. Some reports say the school that was hit is near an Iranian military installation, one of many targeted by U.S. and Israeli strikes since the military air campaign began on Saturday. Kyrgyzstan is working to help hundreds of its citizens who are stranded in Gulf countries because of the Mideast conflict. Diplomats are negotiating with hotels to make sure that Kyrgyz nationals are not evicted, Seitek Zhumakadyr uulu, head of the consular department of Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said on Monday. He said there are 800 stranded Kyrgyz citizens in Qatar and about 1,000 in the United Arab Emirates, according to Kyrgyzstan’s state news agency Kabar. Most Kyrgyz citizens in Saudi Arabia are performing Umrah, the Islamic pilgrimage to Mecca, the official said. Thousands of pilgrims have been affected by the air strikes on Iran and retaliation by Iranian forces. Airspace in many parts of the region is closed to commercial traffic and airlines have suspended flights. However, Ulukbek Maripov, Kyrgyzstan’s ambassador in Saudi Arabia, has said that airports there are operating relatively well. There are no reports of Kyrgyz civilian casualties in the conflict. Uzbekistan’s diplomats in Turkmenistan's capital Ashgabat are arranging assistance for Uzbek citizens who want to leave Iran and cross into neighboring Turkmenistan. “Embassy officials will meet citizens at the Turkmen-Iranian border crossing in the city of Sarakhs,” Uzbekistan’s state news agency Dunyo reported. “Official vehicles of the Embassy of Uzbekistan in Ashgabat have been mobilized to facilitate onward travel arrangements.” The Iranian city of Sarakhs is a key transit point for trade between Iran and Central Asia. The border between Iran and Turkmenistan is more than 1,000 kilometers. A Tajik citizen who was leaving Iran by crossing into Azerbaijan needed medical assistance at the border. “A female citizen of Tajikistan experienced health problems during the evacuation from Iran via the Azerbaijani border,” the Azerbaijani Press Agency reported. “She applied to a doctor present at the checkpoint. The Tajik citizen...

Demographics

Central Asia’s Population Could Reach 96 Million by 2040, Raising Infrastructure Pressures

Central Asia’s population could grow to 96 million by 2040, a trend expected to stimulate economic expansion while placing significant strain on infrastructure, energy systems, and water resources across the region, according to Russia’s state news agency TASS. In an interview with TASS, Nikolai Podguzov, Chairman of the Management Board of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), said demographic growth would be one of the defining factors shaping Central Asia’s long-term development. “By 2040, according to our estimates, the population of Central Asia may reach 96 million. This should become a driver of economic growth, but at the same time such numbers will create enormous pressure on infrastructure,” he said. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Central Asia’s population exceeded 84 million in 2025, continuing a rapid upward trend after surpassing 80 million in 2024. Projections indicate that the population could exceed 100 million by 2050, underscoring the scale of demographic and economic transformation facing the region in the coming decades. Podguzov added that the region would require significant progress in energy efficiency, modern transport systems, and water management to ensure sustainable development. He described Central Asia as one of the regions of the world most vulnerable to climate change. According to EDB forecasts, water shortages are expected to intensify, with an annual deficit potentially reaching between 5 and 12 cubic kilometers by 2028. A substantial portion of water resources is already lost due to outdated irrigation and distribution systems. Podguzov said the bank is financing projects to modernize irrigation networks, introduce water-saving technologies, and implement digital water accounting mechanisms across the region. To address these challenges, the EDB has proposed a Eurasian Transport Framework, a network of transport corridors aimed at lowering logistics costs and accelerating trade flows. While existing routes predominantly run east to west, Podguzov emphasized the growing importance of north-south connections, including the potential Trans-Afghan corridor, which could provide access to markets in South Asia and the Persian Gulf. The bank projects that the combined economies of Central Asia’s five countries will reach approximately $600 billion in 2026, positioning the region among the fastest-growing globally. However, Podguzov stressed that demographic expansion, transport development, and water security are closely interconnected challenges that require coordinated policy responses.