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C5+1 Summit

C5+1: Diplomats and Executives Define Investment Path

Before the historic White House meetings on November 6 between President Trump and the five Central Asian presidents, U.S. and regional diplomats and business leaders met at the Kennedy Center on the occasion of the C5+1 Business Forum, hosted by the U.S. Department of State, to launch a new chapter of cooperation, with a focus on strengthening commercial and investment ties in energy, finance, and manufacturing. Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau, who moderated the panel discussion, said economic engagement is returning to the center of U.S. foreign policy. “The purpose of foreign policy is to increase the prosperity of the American people by finding opportunities for mutually beneficial economic and commercial interchange,” he said. Executives from Chevron, Citi, Freedom Holding, and Uzbekistan’s UzAvtosanoat described how decades of partnership had demonstrated the wisdom of making strategic investments in the region. These partnerships continue to reshape the economic and financial landscape for the better. Participants highlighted Central Asia’s economic stability, solid reserves, and consistent policies, and were confident in faster growth to be driven by increased capital flows and by regional projects like Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oil expansion. Both sides promised to translate diplomacy into dealmaking. Landau further noted that under President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the State Department has elevated commercial diplomacy to a core mission. He stressed that mutual respect, win-win agreements, and consistent engagement are key to driving results. Central Asians have waited decades for this: action, not talk. Two-way trade and investment are now front and center. Chevron Points to Long-Term Energy Investment Chevron Corp. Chief Executive Mike Wirth said the company’s 30-year presence in Kazakhstan remains one of its largest international operations. Chevron was the first major U.S. investor to enter the country after independence and is now the biggest foreign investor. The US$ 48 billion Future Growth Project at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oilfield, co-managed by Chevron and 50%-partner Tengizchevroil LLP, is up and running with expansion underway. “Our history is really founded on relationships and trust,” Wirth said. “The most enduring aspect of it (our work) is the respect and love that our American employees have for the culture and people of Kazakhstan.” He said more than 500 Kazakh employees have trained in Chevron operations worldwide, many of whom now hold senior roles in government and industry. Citi Expands Access to Global Capital Citi’s Managing Director Stephanie von Friedeburg outlined the bank’s activities in Central Asia, where it began operations more than three decades ago. Citi now serves about 800 corporate clients across the region, supporting private companies, governments and state-owned enterprises with strategic planning, capital issuance, and risk management services. The bank has arranged Eurobond sales for the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan and handled more than US$40 billion in fundraising for Kazakhstan since 2014. In Uzbekistan, Citi has supported 19 capital-market transactions and advised the government on improving its credit rating. “We help countries understand how rating agencies look at them (and) how to improve their ratings,” von Friedeburg said. “That allows them...

Afghanistan

Tensions Simmer Between Pakistan and Afghanistan, in Setback for Central Asian Trade Hopes

A round of peace talks between Pakistan and Afghanistan in Istanbul came under strain after another clash between the two countries along their border. A resolution to the conflict is important to Central Asian countries that want to trade south through Afghanistan and onward to Pakistani seaports that open the way to the Indian Ocean. Pakistan’s government and the ruling Taliban in Afghanistan accused each other of instigating the latest confrontation on Thursday, though they still expressed commitment to a delicate ceasefire that was agreed to last month. Dozens of people were killed and cross-border trade was suspended during the fighting in October. According to the Taliban’s account, Pakistani forces fired on the Afghan border town of Spin Boldak as the talks in Turkey began on Thursday. Afghan forces, “out of respect for the negotiation team and to prevent civilian casualties, have so far shown no reaction. It is worth noting that in the previous round of negotiations, both sides had agreed to extend the ceasefire and prevent any acts of aggression,” Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said on X. Pakistan’s Ministry of Information and Broadcasting, however, said firing started from the Afghan side and that Pakistan forces responded. “The situation was brought under control due to responsible action by Pakistani forces and the ceasefire remains intact. Pakistan remains committed to ongoing dialogue and expects reciprocity from Afghan authorities,” the ministry said. Turkey, which along with Qatar is mediating, said ahead of the talks this week that the two sides had agreed to continue the ceasefire and establish “a monitoring and verification mechanism” to ensure peace and impose penalties for any violations. But Pakistani Information Minister Attaullah Tarar, while thanking the mediators, said late Friday that Afghanistan had failed to control terrorism, indicating that the talks in Istanbul had not overcome major sticking points. A key dispute is over Pakistani allegations that militants have used Afghan territory as a sanctuary while carrying out attacks against targets in Pakistan. The Taliban in Afghanistan denies those allegations. Additionally, Afghanistan doesn’t recognize its porous, 2,600-kilometer border with Pakistan, saying it’s a British colonial-era construct that divided the ethnic Pashtun populations that have traditionally dominated Afghanistan. These complexities pose a challenge for landlocked countries in Central Asia that are looking to diversity their trade routes. Several Central Asia-South Asia projects in the works – the Trans-Afghan Railway, the TAPI natural gas pipeline and the CASA-1000 electricity project - have a long way to go before completion. Meanwhile, the post-Soviet states of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan are working on other trade and investment opportunities. Their leaders held a summit with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington on Thursday, building ties with the West even as they nurture more established contacts with Russia and China.

Society

Turkmen Border Guards Delay Medical Aid for Seriously Injured Man at Shavat Checkpoint

At the border between Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, a seriously injured man was forced to wait for hours at the Shavat checkpoint after Turkmen border guards refused to allow immediate medical evacuation while verifying his documents. The incident involved a married couple from Kunya-Urgench, Turkmenistan, who were en route to visit relatives in Uzbekistan’s Andijan region when they were involved in a car accident on October 13. The man, who was sitting in the front seat, sustained multiple injuries, including broken ribs, a fractured shoulder and foot, and numerous bruises and lacerations. His wife, who was in the back seat, suffered only minor bruises. Following the accident, both were taken to the Khorezm Regional Hospital in Urgench, Uzbekistan, where the man underwent treatment for nine days. His injuries required extensive casting. On October 22, an Uzbek medical commission declared him fit for transport and approved his transfer to Turkmenistan for further treatment. An ambulance transported the patient to the Shavat checkpoint, accompanied by a doctor and his wife. At approximately 11:00 a.m., Turkmen border guards carried the man, still on a stretcher, across the border, assuring the family that an ambulance had already been dispatched from Dashoguz. However, no medical team arrived for another five hours. The man remained on a stretcher on the ground beside the border post until 4:00 p.m., while his wife repeatedly pleaded with officers to call the ambulance again. Although the border guards assisted the man twice when he needed to relieve himself, they did not provide medical assistance. It later emerged that officials were conducting background checks, verifying the authenticity of the couple’s visas, and contacting Ashgabat as well as the Uzbek embassy to confirm the couple’s stated purpose of visiting relatives rather than engaging in commercial activity. When the ambulance eventually arrived, yet another obstacle emerged: Dashoguz Regional Hospital refused to admit the patient, citing concerns over the validity of the diagnosis and the origin of the medical documentation. Only after the intervention of higher authorities was the man finally admitted for treatment.

Climate Change

Central Asia Faces Billions in Climate Adaptation Costs, UNEP Warns

Central Asia ranks among the most climate-vulnerable regions in the world and will require tens of billions of dollars to adapt to the accelerating effects of global warming, according to a new report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The report identifies Central Asia as one of the fastest-warming areas globally. However, current adaptation funding remains drastically insufficient to meet the growing threat. A Region Under Threat Developing countries worldwide, including those in Central Asia, will need up to $310 billion annually by 2035 to adapt to climate change. UNEP highlights the region’s specific challenges: rapidly melting glaciers, widespread soil degradation, worsening water scarcity, and increasing aridity, all of which endanger food security and energy sustainability. “If we don't start investing in adaptation now, we will face increasing costs every year,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are particularly exposed, with more than 70% of their populations employed in agriculture, which depends heavily on mountain rivers fed by glacial runoff. According to UNEP, glacier volumes in the region have shrunk by over 30% in the past decade. The changing flow of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers threatens not only agriculture but also the hydropower sectors in both countries. Diminished access to water could lead to socio-economic instability in vulnerable communities. Funding Gap Widens UNEP estimates that developing countries in Europe and Central Asia need roughly $51 billion annually for adaptation. Yet, only a fraction of that figure is currently being met. Tajikistan, for example, has outlined total climate financing needs of $8 billion by 2030 and $17 billion by 2050. In Uzbekistan, the cost of modernizing irrigation and water management systems alone is expected to approach $10 billion by 2030. UNEP has urged governments in the region to accelerate the updating of national adaptation plans, many of which have not been revised in over a decade, and to enhance cooperation in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins. Priority areas include investment in irrigation infrastructure, early warning systems, and flood control. From Glaciers to Farms In response to UNEP’s findings, international organizations have begun to fund targeted adaptation initiatives. The Green Climate Fund, for instance, has approved $250 million for the From Glaciers to Farms program, spearheaded by the Asian Development Bank. The project aims to strengthen agricultural and water resilience in glacier-dependent countries in Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and parts of South Asia. It covers four major river basins: the Naryn and Panj in Central Asia, the Kura in the South Caucasus, and the Swat in Pakistan, benefiting approximately 13 million people. Funding will support the development of irrigation networks, reservoir construction, glacier monitoring, and early warning systems. The program also places a strong emphasis on empowering women entrepreneurs in agriculture and improving the financial sustainability of rural communities.

Afghanistan

Border Violence Between Afghanistan and Pakistan: A New Risk for Central Asia

The escalating tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan are forcing a reassessment of Afghanistan’s viability as a “partner space.” With cross-border clashes increasingly resembling a prolonged pattern rather than isolated incidents, and with both sides showing little willingness to compromise, the question grows more urgent: Can Afghanistan realistically become a partner for Central Asian countries, or is it destined to remain a persistent source of regional instability? This confrontation is deeply unsettling for the countries of Central Asia. Still in the early stages of formulating coherent policies toward Afghanistan, they have tentatively linked their development strategies to the hope of having a stable neighbor to the south – one that might serve as a bridge to South Asia. Against this backdrop, deteriorating Afghan-Pakistani relations breed more frustration and anxiety than hope. No country in the world, except Russia, has recognized the Taliban regime de jure. This broad reluctance reflects deep skepticism; few are willing to assume legal obligations or share responsibility for Kabul’s actions. Yet, Afghanistan remains far from isolated. Its geographic centrality makes it impossible to ignore. Accordingly, Central Asia has developed a distinct approach to dealing with its southern neighbor. It can be summarized as: We do not recognize, but we cooperate; we do not trust, but we verify; we do not agree, but we engage. In essence, Afghanistan’s neighbors, particularly the ones in Central Asia, have adopted a pragmatic, long-term strategy: engage without illusions or formal recognition, while maintaining the flexibility to adjust based on Kabul’s behavior. For these countries, Afghanistan does not stand as an independent priority. Its role is evaluated solely within the broader regional framework. In the most favorable scenario, Afghanistan serves as a transit corridor linking South and Central Asia. Yet even this utility is not indispensable; viable alternatives through Iran, the South Caucasus, Turkey, and China already exist and are expanding. Looking ahead, three broad scenarios can be envisioned: Optimistic: The Taliban demonstrate readiness for responsible engagement. This would enable Afghanistan’s gradual integration into trade and transport initiatives, expansion of economic ties, and a firm establishment as a bridge between Central and South Asia. Pessimistic: Afghanistan remains a chronic risk factor and flashpoint for regional crises. The ongoing Afghan-Pakistani confrontation, no longer a fleeting episode but an entrenched conflict, is a clear warning sign. If this becomes the norm, it will deter serious investment, no stakeholder will commit to a country that cannot guarantee peace with its neighbors. Inertia: Central Asian states continue their cautious balancing act under the logic that “a bad peace is better than a good war.” While cooperation continues at a minimal level, countries prioritize alternative routes and avoid deep commitments. Under this status quo, ambitious projects like the Trans-Afghanistan Railway and the TAPI pipeline are unlikely to materialize. The former risks losing the “trans” prefix; the latter may, for now, become little more than a Turkmenistan-Afghanistan venture. Nonetheless, there remains a window for diplomacy. Pressured by Turkey and Qatar, Kabul and Islamabad have agreed to resume negotiations aimed...

Natural Gas

Turkmenistan Halts Gas Exports to Turkey Amid Contract Talks

Turkmenistan has temporarily suspended natural gas exports to Turkey, according to an October 24 report by the Chronicles of Turkmenistan, which cited Maksat Babaev, chairman of the state concern Turkmengaz. Babaev made the announcement during a press conference following the Oil and Gas of Turkmenistan 2025 international conference. Gas deliveries began in March 2025 under a short-term contract for 2 billion cubic meters per year. The project was framed as a pilot initiative to assess technical and logistical challenges. Murad Archaev, Deputy Chairman of Turkmengaz, stated that the company is fully prepared to resume supplies. “The Turkish side was very pleased with the start of deliveries. We also support it, and once the existing issues are resolved, supplies will continue under the signed contract,” Archaev said, as quoted by MK Turkey. Babaev added that Turkmenistan has other potential buyers if an agreement on price or volume cannot be reached. “This is the market,” he said, according to Oilcapital, citing Reuters. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Turkey began importing Turkmen gas via Iran under a swap agreement, with deliveries totaling about 1.3 billion cubic meters by year-end. In May, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced Ankara's intention to extend the deal for another five years. Meanwhile, Turkey’s Ministry of Energy said in October that it seeks to increase gas imports from Turkmenistan via the Caspian Sea. The ministry emphasized that the Turkish market could serve as a gateway for Turkmen gas to reach other countries, including European Union members. Earlier this year, both sides hailed the launch of deliveries as a milestone in regional energy cooperation.