Uzbekistan Local Politics - The Times Of Central Asia

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Water Access

Central Asia Confirms Joint Water Plan for Shardara Reservoir Ahead of 2025-2026 Season

Central Asian nations have reached a consensus on projected water inflow volumes to the Shardara Reservoir for the upcoming non-vegetation period, according to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation. The agreement was finalized during a regional meeting attended by senior officials: Durdy Gendjiev, Chair of Turkmenistan’s State Committee for Water Management; Nurzhan Nurzhigitov, Kazakhstan’s Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation; Shavkat Hamraev, Uzbekistan’s Minister of Water Management; and Jamshed Shodi Shoimzoda, First Deputy Minister of Energy and Water Resources of Tajikistan. Emil Shodikhanov, an adviser at the Kyrgyz Embassy in Turkmenistan, participated as an observer. Participants reviewed outcomes from the 2025 irrigation season and approved the operational forecast for the Naryn-Syr Darya reservoir cascade for the 2025-2026 non-vegetation period. A consensus was reached on expected inflow volumes to Shardara Reservoir, which is a critical node in the region’s transboundary water system. The meeting also included discussions on progress in implementing the commitments made during recent summits of the founding states of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea. The 92nd session of the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination (ICWC) is scheduled to take place next year in Tajikistan. “Last irrigation season took place under difficult climate conditions. However, coordinated cooperation among the ICWC member states made it possible to ensure stability throughout the vegetation period,” said Nurzhigitov. “Through such meetings, we reach common agreements and lay the foundation for future cooperation. Together with our colleagues in Central Asia, we aim for a fair distribution of transboundary water resources that considers the interests of all parties.” This agreement follows the 16 November regional summit chaired by Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, during which Central Asian leaders discussed enhancing regional cooperation and accelerating joint infrastructure projects. The summit focused on escalating ecological and water challenges, and leaders stressed the need to adopt a “green development” framework for the region. They also proposed declaring 2026-2036 as the “Decade of Practical Action for the Rational Use of Water in Central Asia.”

Digital Development

Uzbekistan Partners with NVIDIA to Build National AI Infrastructure and Training Centers

Uzbekistan is advancing its ambition to become Central Asia’s digital leader through a new strategic partnership with U.S. tech giant NVIDIA, the Ministry of Digital Technologies announced. Minister Sherzod Shermatov met with NVIDIA executives during his official visit to the United States to finalize large-scale initiatives aimed at developing the country’s artificial AI infrastructure and talent ecosystem. According to the ministry, the collaboration will focus on three core areas: knowledge exchange, education, and infrastructure development. NVIDIA will share international best practices in AI governance, ecosystem development, and industry expertise, using open, non-confidential data. A centerpiece of the partnership is the creation of an AI Excellence Center based on NVIDIA technologies and training programs. The center will focus on preparing educators and retraining specialists, with the broader goal of integrating AI curricula into Uzbekistan’s higher education system. Training programs will be supported by the NVIDIA Deep Learning Institute, which will offer technical courses and certification. By 2026, the Ministry of Digital Technologies plans to launch two national AI clusters with a combined computing capacity of up to one megawatt. One cluster will serve educational and research institutions, while the second will support projects in e-government, healthcare, and industrial automation. These initiatives will be carried out through separate agreements, aligned with existing infrastructure and export control requirements. Uzbekistan’s top universities are also set to receive NVIDIA-powered supercomputing systems. Funding for the project has already been secured, with procurement procedures scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2025. Additionally, the government will invest $3 million to establish an Industrial AI Excellence Center. This facility will apply NVIDIA technologies to key areas such as digital twins, robotics, and industrial automation. The center is expected to launch in 2026. The Ministry of Digital Technologies said the agreement represents “an important step in integrating global expertise in artificial intelligence and digital transformation with Uzbekistan’s national priorities for sustainable technological growth.” The announcement follows the successful conclusion of ICT Week Uzbekistan 2025, the country’s largest tech forum to date, held in September. The event drew over 20 official delegations, 300 companies, and 20,000 participants from more than 50 countries. With artificial intelligence and emerging technologies at the forefront, the forum reaffirmed Uzbekistan’s goal of becoming a regional digital hub and converting global partnerships into long-term innovation and investment pipelines. The Times of Central Asia recently spoke with Minister Shermatov about Uzbekistan’s efforts to attract investment, prepare its workforce for an AI-driven economy, and ensure data protection as digitalization accelerates.

TCA Interviews

Inside Uzbekistan’s Regional Defense Strategy: An In-Depth Interview with Michael Hilliard

Michael Hilliard is Director of Defense & Security Analysis at the Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs, where he leads a specialist project analyzing the armed forces of Central Asia. The Oxus Society’s latest report, focusing on Uzbekistan’s military, has just been released. The Times of Central Asia spoke with Hilliard about the report, Uzbekistan’s evolving defense doctrine, and its future role as a military power in the region. TCA: In light of the new report on Uzbekistan’s military, how would you characterize Uzbekistan’s overarching security and defense doctrine, especially in relation to the broader Central Asian region? Michael Hilliard: Uzbekistan’s primary defense doctrine is essentially internally focused. Since independence, and particularly since the events in Andijan in 2005, Tashkent has concentrated on transforming its forces into a rapid-response military with specializations in counterterrorism, crowd control, and dispersal operations. When you speak with officers or policymakers within the defense establishment, 2005 is a recurring reference point. During those early hours, protestors overran a motor rifle unit and seized weapons. Many defense personnel still believe that if they had been able to react faster, the final outcome in the square might have been different. This need for rapid adaptability has driven much of Tashkent’s defense policy since then. TCA: The report notes that Kazakhstan has now overtaken Uzbekistan as the region’s leading military power and that this gap is likely to widen. To what extent does this reflect Tashkent’s greater emphasis on regional cooperation and the resolution of border disputes, rather than competition? Hilliard: Kazakhstan’s economic dominance makes this outcome unsurprising. The country now accounts for just under 60% of Central Asia’s total GDP as of 2024. With that level of wealth, Astana naturally has greater resources to allocate to defense. However, Uzbekistan traditionally spends a higher proportion of its budget on the military. Despite having only half of Kazakhstan’s GDP, it has often matched Kazakhstan’s defense spending in real terms. If Kazakhstan simply accelerates its defense spending to the regional average, it will quickly surge ahead. Ultimately, it’s an issue of economics; Kazakhstan has more money to spend. TCA: What is the role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and its Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) in shaping Uzbekistan’s regional military posture? Hilliard: While some once had ambitious visions for the SCO, today it’s primarily intelligence-focused. Joint exercises are still held but remain limited, and RATS’ influence has declined somewhat following China’s controversial maneuvering within the organization. At present, RATS focuses more on identifying individuals or groups, such as traffickers or terrorist networks, that all member states have a shared interest in apprehending. It’s quite different from the CSTO, where Moscow wields far greater control. TCA: How might Tashkent view the recent clashes between Taliban and Pakistani forces, given that Pakistan currently chairs RATS? Hilliard: Tashkent’s attention is mainly on northern Afghanistan, not the Taliban-Pakistan clashes in the southeast. These incidents appear limited, so they’re unlikely to alter Tashkent’s calculus significantly. However, they do make cross-regional initiatives such as the Tajikistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI)...

Regional Cooperation

How the Ferghana Valley Might Become Central Asia’s Laboratory of Peace

On October 15-16, in the heart of the Ferghana valley, which for decades has been associated with border conflicts, mistrust, and unresolved issues, the heads of Ferghana (Uzbekistan), Batken (Kyrgyzstan), and Sughd (Tajikistan) gathered to discuss the further peaceful development of the region. The forum brought together not just officials but also experts, diplomats, civil society, and international organization representatives from Central Asia, Europe, and other regions. The first Ferghana Peace Forum, entitled “Ferghana Valley: Joining Forces for Peace and Progress”, was not simply another gathering behind closed doors but a table where everyone was offered a seat. The valley, with territory of roughly 20,000-22,000 km² shared by three countries, was one of the main routes for the ancient Silk Road. It embodies diverse cultures and fertile lands, but also, until recently, the unresolved problems and deep contradictions of Central Asia. Complex issues, including water management, border demarcation, and conflicting national narratives. People's connections were severed by visa regimes and land mines. It was, until recently, impossible to imagine today's reality where people are crossing borders without long lines or bureaucratic barriers. The Khujand Declaration, signed in early 2025 by the presidents of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, paved the way for the forum. The document marked a historic shift, reflecting the countries' desire for dialogue, open borders, economic cooperation, and cultural exchange. However, it remained only a vision without an implementation mechanism that would turn the declaration into sustainable interaction. The Ferghana Peace Forum promises to fill this gap by becoming the first peacebuilding platform designed specifically for the territory, and managed by the three countries themselves with support from external organisations, rather than by external intermediaries or actors. The Forum's founding communiqué defines its goal as creating a permanent platform for building trust, developing a common development strategy, attracting investment, and forming a new political climate in Central Asia. It is a rare occasion when Central Asian countries organize inclusive platforms for open discussions and the participation of civil society, academia, and business. With more than 300 participants, including officials from the UN, EU, and OSCE, as well as leading international NGOs, the forum promises to become a truly historical event. As one of the Forum participants noted, “If peace is possible in Ferghana, it is possible anywhere in Central Asia, and perhaps anywhere in the world.” Discussions were focused on the practical implementation of regional cooperation. Participants addressed issues that have long fueled tensions in the valley: border procedures, joint water management, trade facilitation, labor migration, and crisis prevention. At the same time, the platform created a space for exploring new areas of cooperation, such as digitalization, education, renewable energy, and tourism. There was a shared understanding that peace cannot be sustainable without economic opportunities and social integration. The timing of the forum could not have been better. With the flow of current geopolitical events, Central Asian countries have a narrow window of opportunity to strengthen the internal cooperation and to institutionalize it, while Russia is distracted by...

Borders

Uzbek Parliament Ratifies Border Agreement with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan

On October 28, the Legislative Chamber of Uzbekistan’s parliament, the Oliy Majlis, ratified a law approving a trilateral agreement on the junction point of the state borders of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, according to the chamber’s press service. The agreement was initially signed on March 31 in the Tajik city of Khujand during a high-level meeting between Presidents Shavkat Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan, Emomali Rahmon of Tajikistan, and Sadyr Japarov of Kyrgyzstan. The leaders also took part in a remote inauguration of the Dostlik (Friendship) stele, which now marks the exact location where the borders of the three countries meet. Lawmakers emphasized that Central Asia is increasingly becoming a region of constructive dialogue, mutual trust, and regional cooperation, moving past a legacy of closed borders and unresolved territorial disputes. Umid Yakubkhodjayev, a member of the parliamentary committee on international affairs, defense, and security, stated that the agreement formally establishes the precise location of the tri-border junction and the delineation of border lines in the area. He noted that the deal would bolster good-neighborly relations, reinforce trust and strategic partnerships, and contribute to the international stature of the Central Asian region. The agreement also lays a legal foundation for expanding cross-border cooperation, enhancing trade, and launching joint infrastructure initiatives in neighboring regions. These efforts are expected to create jobs and raise living standards. The draft law was passed in its first reading and, by exception, was adopted immediately in all three readings. It has now been forwarded to the Senate and will enter into force upon presidential signature.

Poverty

Poverty in Central Asia: Who Is Living and Who Is Just Surviving

A new analysis by Ranking.kz reveals that Kazakhstan currently has the most favorable poverty indicators among Central Asian countries, while Tajikistan records the highest levels of deprivation. The findings also reflect significant shifts in global poverty estimates following a revision of the World Bank’s methodology. According to Our World in Data, by 2024, the global number of people living in extreme poverty had risen to 817 million, an increase of 125 million compared to previous figures. However, this jump does not signal worsening global conditions. Instead, it stems from a change in measurement criteria. In June 2024, the World Bank raised the international poverty line from $2.15 to $3 per day in purchasing power parity (PPP), based on 2021 prices. This methodological update expanded the scope of people counted as poor, even as real incomes among the poorest rose by approximately 16%. Sub-Saharan Africa continues to bear the brunt of global poverty. Of the 30 countries with the highest poverty rates, 24 are located on the continent. In Central Asia, Tajikistan ranks as the region’s poorest nation, with 61.3% of its population living on less than $3 per day. In contrast, the poverty rate stands at just 2.74% in Kyrgyzstan, 2.72% in Uzbekistan, and 1.93% in Armenia. Kazakhstan reports the region’s lowest rate of extreme poverty; just 0.04% of the population lives below the international threshold. Data for Turkmenistan is not available. According to Kazakhstan’s National Statistics Bureau, the share of citizens earning less than the cost of the basic food basket declined from 0.2% in 2023 to 0.1% in 2024. For the first time, the gap between urban and rural poverty disappeared; previously, rural areas had higher rates. In absolute terms, 16,500 people lived below the food minimum in the first quarter of 2025. The proportion of the population earning less than the national subsistence minimum also decreased, falling from 5.2% in 2023 to 5% in 2024. The breakdown shows 3.8% in cities and 6.9% in villages. The total number of people below the subsistence minimum dropped to 1 million. As of early 2025, the figure had improved further to 4.5%, with the minimum raised to 52,500 tenge (approximately $98) per capita. In terms of daily consumption, Kazakhstani citizens spent an average of $7 per day in 2024. Based on World Bank data, the international dollar was equivalent to 160.93 tenge, reflecting the amount needed in Kazakhstan to purchase a comparable basket of goods and services to that of $1 in the United States.