Uzbekistan Local Politics - The Times Of Central Asia

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Energy Cooperation

Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan Strengthen Energy Ties as Kambarata-1 Project Advances

Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan are deepening their energy partnership as progress continues on the Kambarata-1 Hydropower Plant (HPP), one of Central Asia’s most ambitious infrastructure projects. Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev met with Kyrgyz Energy Minister Taalaibek Ibrayev in Tashkent to discuss regional energy cooperation, according to Kyrgyz news agency 24.kg, citing the Kyrgyz Ministry of Energy. The talks focused on strengthening strategic ties between the two countries, with particular emphasis on hydropower development. Both sides acknowledged the growing momentum in bilateral relations and reaffirmed their commitment to joint regional energy initiatives. Mirziyoyev underscored the importance of collaborative water and energy projects, identifying Kambarata-1 as a top priority for all three participating countries, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan. “For the effective use and joint management of the region’s hydropower potential, next year we will begin financing the construction of the Kambarata-1 Hydropower Plant together with Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan,” Mirziyoyev said, as quoted by the Kyrgyz Ministry of Energy. He also expressed gratitude to Ibrayev and representatives from major energy companies in the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, and Azerbaijan for supporting Uzbekistan’s efforts to attract investment and adopt advanced energy technologies. The Kambarata-1 project is a trilateral initiative involving Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan. With a projected cost of $4.2 billion, the venture has already secured $5.6 billion in committed financing from international financial institutions, according to Uzbek Energy Minister Jorabek Mirzamahmudov. Mirzamahmudov noted that the most recent trilateral ministerial meeting took place in Brussels in late September, coordinated by the World Bank. The event brought together representatives from 10 major financial institutions, including the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the European Investment Bank, the OPEC Fund, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and the Asian Development Bank. Despite strong financial and political backing, the project faces unresolved technical concerns. At a recent parliamentary session in Bishkek, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, president of Kyrgyzstan’s National Academy of Sciences, warned that seismic microzonation, a critical safety assessment, has not yet been conducted at the planned construction site. Kambarata-1 is expected to have an installed capacity of 1,860 MW, a reservoir volume of 4.5 billion cubic meters, and a dam height of 256 meters. The facility will house four turbines capable of producing over 5.5 billion kWh of electricity annually. Under the current ownership structure, Kyrgyzstan will hold a 34% stake in the project, while Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan will each hold 33%.

Energy

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan Sign Trilateral Deal on Water and Energy Cooperation

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan have signed a trilateral protocol on water and energy cooperation, covering the upcoming winter heating period and the 2026 agricultural season. The agreement was formalized at a meeting of the countries’ energy and water ministers held in Almaty on November 22. With water levels at Kyrgyzstan’s Toktogul Hydropower Plant (HPP) reservoir critically low, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have agreed to supply electricity to Kyrgyzstan during the winter months. This will allow Kyrgyzstan to reduce electricity generation during peak heating demand and conserve water in the Toktogul Reservoir. The stored water will later be released downstream to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan during the 2026 growing season to ensure consistent irrigation for farmland in their southern regions. The Toktogul HPP, located on the Naryn River, a key tributary of the Syr Darya, is Kyrgyzstan’s largest power station, supplying about 40% of the country’s electricity. It plays a dual role: meeting domestic energy needs and regulating water flows critical to downstream agricultural systems. In winter, Kyrgyzstan typically ramps up power output to meet heating demand, often at the expense of reservoir levels, which can compromise irrigation capacity the following spring. Under the new protocol, Uzbekistan has also pledged to support regional electricity balancing and ensure transit capacity. Earlier, the three countries agreed to facilitate cross-border electricity flows, including Russian electricity transiting to Kyrgyzstan via Kazakhstan, and Turkmen electricity reaching Kyrgyzstan through Uzbekistan’s transmission grid. Participants in the Almaty meeting emphasized that the trilateral agreement reflects a spirit of good neighborliness and is aimed at enhancing regional energy security and stability. The agreement is particularly critical for Kyrgyzstan, which faces persistent electricity shortages, especially during the winter when electric heating is widely used. On November 18, Kyrgyzstan completed the full modernization of the Toktogul HPP, with the commissioning of its fourth generating unit. The upgrade raised the facility’s total capacity from 1,200 MW to 1,440 MW. In parallel, Kyrgyzstan is advancing construction of the Kambarata-1 HPP, a major regional project being developed jointly with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Once completed, Kambarata-1 will have a generation capacity of 1,860 MW and produce 5.6 billion kWh annually.

Regional Relations

Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan Partnership Signals a New Era in Central Asia

For many years, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan were seen as regional rivals, with many analysts believing this long-standing competition impeded the realization of sustainable regional strategies. However, leadership changes and expanded cooperation frameworks in Central Asia have significantly shifted these dynamics. Today, countries in Central Asia are shaping policies at the intersection of Western, Chinese, and Russian interests, whilst looking even further afield. As Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan assert themselves more on the global stage, they are increasingly finding common ground. In part because of their geographic size and numbers, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are seen as the leading states in Central Asia. Kazakhstan has the largest territory by far, while Uzbekistan boasts the largest population, which stands in excess of 37 million. Both nations possess significant resources and development potential. While their current leadership has dismissed notions of rivalry, its roots stretched back for decades. Historical Competition Tensions between the two republics date to the Soviet era, when the rivalry was evident even to ordinary citizens. The influence of Dinmukhamed Kunaev, First Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Kazakhstan, often clashed with that of his Uzbek counterpart, Sharaf Rashidov. Beyond personal rivalries between republican leaders, Soviet-era administrative borders were often drawn without regard for demographic realities or resource flows. Competition for Moscow’s attention and investment funding pushed union republics to emphasize different sectors - Kazakhstan’s development of virgin lands turned it into a major grain hub, while Uzbekistan long benefited from its cotton industry - creating distinct economic identities that later persisted into independence. These divergent economic structures shaped early regional competition and informed differing policy priorities in the 1990s and 2000s. Both republics had substantial industrial capacity, though analysts argue that Kazakhstan maintained an edge in economic growth. The Baikonur Cosmodrome, still operational today, was also a long-standing strategic asset within Kazakhstan’s borders. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, this rivalry only intensified. Nursultan Nazarbayev and Islam Karimov, then presidents of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, were widely viewed as competing for regional leadership. While their economies were initially on par, Uzbekistan gradually turned inward, while Kazakhstan opened to foreign investment, particularly in the extractive sector. In the 2000s, despite successful border delimitation, disputes flared over boundaries, water, and natural resources. Some analysts contend that it was this lingering friction that hindered efforts to preserve the Aral Sea, once the world’s fourth-largest lake, which has now largely disappeared, at least in its southern section, causing dust storms so vast they are visible from space. In 2002, the border villages of Bagys and Khiyobon, inhabited by ethnic Kazakhs but situated in Uzbekistan, demanded to be recognized as part of Kazakhstan. These territories had been transferred to Uzbekistan in 1956. They were officially reincorporated into Kazakhstan only in 2021. Presidents Reject Rivalry Narrative Kazakh political scientist Gaziz Abishev maintains that there is no leadership struggle today between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. “An important point that was made is that there is no unhealthy rivalry between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, or between Kazakhs...

Water Access

Central Asia Confirms Joint Water Plan for Shardara Reservoir Ahead of 2025-2026 Season

Central Asian nations have reached a consensus on projected water inflow volumes to the Shardara Reservoir for the upcoming non-vegetation period, according to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation. The agreement was finalized during a regional meeting attended by senior officials: Durdy Gendjiev, Chair of Turkmenistan’s State Committee for Water Management; Nurzhan Nurzhigitov, Kazakhstan’s Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation; Shavkat Hamraev, Uzbekistan’s Minister of Water Management; and Jamshed Shodi Shoimzoda, First Deputy Minister of Energy and Water Resources of Tajikistan. Emil Shodikhanov, an adviser at the Kyrgyz Embassy in Turkmenistan, participated as an observer. Participants reviewed outcomes from the 2025 irrigation season and approved the operational forecast for the Naryn-Syr Darya reservoir cascade for the 2025-2026 non-vegetation period. A consensus was reached on expected inflow volumes to Shardara Reservoir, which is a critical node in the region’s transboundary water system. The meeting also included discussions on progress in implementing the commitments made during recent summits of the founding states of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea. The 92nd session of the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination (ICWC) is scheduled to take place next year in Tajikistan. “Last irrigation season took place under difficult climate conditions. However, coordinated cooperation among the ICWC member states made it possible to ensure stability throughout the vegetation period,” said Nurzhigitov. “Through such meetings, we reach common agreements and lay the foundation for future cooperation. Together with our colleagues in Central Asia, we aim for a fair distribution of transboundary water resources that considers the interests of all parties.” This agreement follows the 16 November regional summit chaired by Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, during which Central Asian leaders discussed enhancing regional cooperation and accelerating joint infrastructure projects. The summit focused on escalating ecological and water challenges, and leaders stressed the need to adopt a “green development” framework for the region. They also proposed declaring 2026-2036 as the “Decade of Practical Action for the Rational Use of Water in Central Asia.”

Digital Development

Uzbekistan Partners with NVIDIA to Build National AI Infrastructure and Training Centers

Uzbekistan is advancing its ambition to become Central Asia’s digital leader through a new strategic partnership with U.S. tech giant NVIDIA, the Ministry of Digital Technologies announced. Minister Sherzod Shermatov met with NVIDIA executives during his official visit to the United States to finalize large-scale initiatives aimed at developing the country’s artificial AI infrastructure and talent ecosystem. According to the ministry, the collaboration will focus on three core areas: knowledge exchange, education, and infrastructure development. NVIDIA will share international best practices in AI governance, ecosystem development, and industry expertise, using open, non-confidential data. A centerpiece of the partnership is the creation of an AI Excellence Center based on NVIDIA technologies and training programs. The center will focus on preparing educators and retraining specialists, with the broader goal of integrating AI curricula into Uzbekistan’s higher education system. Training programs will be supported by the NVIDIA Deep Learning Institute, which will offer technical courses and certification. By 2026, the Ministry of Digital Technologies plans to launch two national AI clusters with a combined computing capacity of up to one megawatt. One cluster will serve educational and research institutions, while the second will support projects in e-government, healthcare, and industrial automation. These initiatives will be carried out through separate agreements, aligned with existing infrastructure and export control requirements. Uzbekistan’s top universities are also set to receive NVIDIA-powered supercomputing systems. Funding for the project has already been secured, with procurement procedures scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2025. Additionally, the government will invest $3 million to establish an Industrial AI Excellence Center. This facility will apply NVIDIA technologies to key areas such as digital twins, robotics, and industrial automation. The center is expected to launch in 2026. The Ministry of Digital Technologies said the agreement represents “an important step in integrating global expertise in artificial intelligence and digital transformation with Uzbekistan’s national priorities for sustainable technological growth.” The announcement follows the successful conclusion of ICT Week Uzbekistan 2025, the country’s largest tech forum to date, held in September. The event drew over 20 official delegations, 300 companies, and 20,000 participants from more than 50 countries. With artificial intelligence and emerging technologies at the forefront, the forum reaffirmed Uzbekistan’s goal of becoming a regional digital hub and converting global partnerships into long-term innovation and investment pipelines. The Times of Central Asia recently spoke with Minister Shermatov about Uzbekistan’s efforts to attract investment, prepare its workforce for an AI-driven economy, and ensure data protection as digitalization accelerates.

TCA Interviews

Inside Uzbekistan’s Regional Defense Strategy: An In-Depth Interview with Michael Hilliard

Michael Hilliard is Director of Defense & Security Analysis at the Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs, where he leads a specialist project analyzing the armed forces of Central Asia. The Oxus Society’s latest report, focusing on Uzbekistan’s military, has just been released. The Times of Central Asia spoke with Hilliard about the report, Uzbekistan’s evolving defense doctrine, and its future role as a military power in the region. TCA: In light of the new report on Uzbekistan’s military, how would you characterize Uzbekistan’s overarching security and defense doctrine, especially in relation to the broader Central Asian region? Michael Hilliard: Uzbekistan’s primary defense doctrine is essentially internally focused. Since independence, and particularly since the events in Andijan in 2005, Tashkent has concentrated on transforming its forces into a rapid-response military with specializations in counterterrorism, crowd control, and dispersal operations. When you speak with officers or policymakers within the defense establishment, 2005 is a recurring reference point. During those early hours, protestors overran a motor rifle unit and seized weapons. Many defense personnel still believe that if they had been able to react faster, the final outcome in the square might have been different. This need for rapid adaptability has driven much of Tashkent’s defense policy since then. TCA: The report notes that Kazakhstan has now overtaken Uzbekistan as the region’s leading military power and that this gap is likely to widen. To what extent does this reflect Tashkent’s greater emphasis on regional cooperation and the resolution of border disputes, rather than competition? Hilliard: Kazakhstan’s economic dominance makes this outcome unsurprising. The country now accounts for just under 60% of Central Asia’s total GDP as of 2024. With that level of wealth, Astana naturally has greater resources to allocate to defense. However, Uzbekistan traditionally spends a higher proportion of its budget on the military. Despite having only half of Kazakhstan’s GDP, it has often matched Kazakhstan’s defense spending in real terms. If Kazakhstan simply accelerates its defense spending to the regional average, it will quickly surge ahead. Ultimately, it’s an issue of economics; Kazakhstan has more money to spend. TCA: What is the role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and its Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) in shaping Uzbekistan’s regional military posture? Hilliard: While some once had ambitious visions for the SCO, today it’s primarily intelligence-focused. Joint exercises are still held but remain limited, and RATS’ influence has declined somewhat following China’s controversial maneuvering within the organization. At present, RATS focuses more on identifying individuals or groups, such as traffickers or terrorist networks, that all member states have a shared interest in apprehending. It’s quite different from the CSTO, where Moscow wields far greater control. TCA: How might Tashkent view the recent clashes between Taliban and Pakistani forces, given that Pakistan currently chairs RATS? Hilliard: Tashkent’s attention is mainly on northern Afghanistan, not the Taliban-Pakistan clashes in the southeast. These incidents appear limited, so they’re unlikely to alter Tashkent’s calculus significantly. However, they do make cross-regional initiatives such as the Tajikistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI)...