Our People > Aliya Haidar

Aliya Haidar

Journalist

Aliya Haidar is a Kazakhstani journalist. She started her career in 1998, and has worked in the country's leading regional and national publications ever since.

Articles

OPEC

Kazakhstan Balances OPEC+ Compliance with Bold 2025 Oil Surge

Kazakhstan has reaffirmed its commitment to the OPEC+ agreement on oil production volumes while simultaneously planning to increase production in 2025, signaling a growing influence on the international cartel despite not being a member. In February, Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry issued a statement confirming its adherence to the OPEC+ agreement. “Kazakhstan will take the necessary measures in 2025 and 2026 to fulfill its commitments and compensate for overproduction in 2024,” the statement read. The government acknowledged that production would increase in 2024 due to the expansion of the Tengiz field but emphasized the importance of honoring OPEC+ commitments. Kazakhstan also pledged to engage in negotiations within the framework of international law. In March, major oil producers, including ExxonMobil, Total, and Shell, agreed to reduce oil production in Kazakhstan to align with OPEC+ requirements. “We have set quite a serious task for them to reduce oil production in Kazakhstan to achieve the planned parameters. The conversation was productive, and we did not receive any refusals,” Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliyev stated. Similar assurances were made in April 2024, even after the country exceeded its March quota by 131,000 barrels per day. Planned Production Increase Despite these commitments, Kazakhstan plans to produce over 96.2 million tons of oil and gas condensate in 2025, marking a 9.7% increase from the previous year’s 87.7 million tons. According to Energy Minister Satkaliyev, Atyrau Region is expected to produce 57.4 million tons (+9.1%), Mangistau Region 17.8 million tons (+7.2%), West Kazakhstan Region 12.9 million tons (+4.9%), while Aktobe Region’s output is projected to decline slightly to 4.7 million tons (-2.1%). Industry experts note that this decision has caused friction with OPEC+ members, particularly Saudi Arabia. Oleg Chervinsky, a columnist for the Oil and Gas of Kazakhstan. Facts and Comments Telegram channel attributes the production increase primarily to the expansion of the Tengiz field, which is set to begin operations in the second quarter of 2025 with investments totaling $533 million. Additional investments of $144 million are being made at Karachaganak, while work continues on the offshore Kalamkas-Sea-Khazar project. Kazakhstan’s Growing Influence Chervinsky argues that Kazakhstan has become a key player in OPEC+ despite its non-membership. In March, OPEC+ decided to increase oil production from April by approximately 138,000 barrels per day, the first such decision since 2022. The move came amid sluggish global demand and U.S. President Donald Trump’s calls for Saudi Arabia to boost production. According to Reuters, Kazakhstan’s excess production played a significant role in OPEC+’s decision. Three sources within the cartel reported that several OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, were “outraged” by Kazakhstan’s record-breaking production levels and demanded that the country compensate for the overproduction. However, as Chervinsky points out, the cartel has no direct enforcement mechanisms over Kazakhstan, and the government remains committed to its plan to increase production by nearly 10% in 2025. With its ability to influence OPEC+ decisions while maintaining production independence, Kazakhstan is emerging as an increasingly formidable player in the global oil market.

1 year ago

e-Commerce

Foreign E-Commerce Platforms in Central Asia Face New Tax Burdens

Local business owners argue that foreign marketplaces enjoy unfair competitive advantages. To address this, Central Asian authorities plan to impose new tax requirements. For consumers, this move could mean higher inflation. Unequal Conditions In February, members of Kazakhstan’s Mazhilis highlighted that foreign marketplaces pay four times less in taxes than their local counterparts. Deputies from the Ak Zhol party, which advocates for business interests, have proposed requiring foreign e-commerce platforms to register with Kazakhstan’s tax authorities and pay value-added tax (VAT) on revenue from local buyers. This proposal targets major marketplaces such as Temu, Amazon, and AliExpress. In 2023, foreign marketplaces contributed just 4.8% of their turnover to Kazakhstan’s treasury, leading to an estimated budget shortfall of tens of millions of dollars. By contrast, Kazakhstani marketplaces face a significantly higher fiscal burden, paying an average of 16.3% in taxes. Local entrepreneurs using domestic platforms may pay up to 62% in various fees and levies, lawmakers claim. They argue that this imbalance undermines the competitiveness of local businesses, leading to factory closures and job losses. A study by the Alliance of Technological Companies Qaztech found that 20% of Kazakhstani consumers currently shop exclusively on foreign platforms. Without government intervention, this share could exceed 50% by 2029, resulting in substantial budgetary losses. “Pay Up or Leave” In January, Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov proposed increasing VAT while reducing social tax and pension contributions for employers. The plan includes raising the basic VAT rate to 16%, though certain businesses may receive exemptions. In March, National Economy Minister Serik Zhumangarin confirmed that the VAT increase would also apply to online marketplaces. “We set rules and laws, and marketplaces must either comply or exit our market. As far as I know, Temu and Pinduoduo have already conditionally registered here and are VAT payers,” Zhumangarin stated. He emphasized that the government is not imposing a special tax on specific platforms but rather enforcing equal treatment across all e-commerce players. Zhumangarin acknowledged that the VAT hike might cause a short-term inflationary spike, estimating an additional 3% increase. Overall inflation, he noted, could return to double digits, reaching 12–14%. Uzbekistan Follows Suit Uzbekistan is also moving to curb foreign e-commerce dominance. Beginning March 20, the country will restrict access to Temu unless the platform registers for tax purposes. Authorities argue that some foreign marketplaces evade national tax regulations, creating unfair competition for local businesses. Uzbek analyst Timurmalik Elmuradov suggests that Temu has two options: establish a subsidiary in Uzbekistan or register as a VAT payer. The Chinese platform’s estimated monthly sales in Uzbekistan amount to $8-9 million. Online marketplaces are a relatively new phenomenon in Uzbekistan, with Temu operating in the country for only about six months. Should foreign e-commerce platforms withdraw, the cost of imported goods could rise by 10-12%. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan has around 50 domestic online marketplaces, though they struggle to compete with larger foreign rivals. While Chinese, Russian, and Western platforms offer a vast selection and lower prices, local businesses emphasize faster and more reliable delivery.

1 year ago

USAID

USAID Pullback in Kazakhstan Creates Space for China and Raises Security Concerns – Expert

President Trump’s executive order restricting the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) globally has led to a reduction in Western-funded projects in Kazakhstan. USAID previously funded initiatives in humanitarian aid, media, blogging, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs). As a result of the new U.S. administration's actions, experts suggest that China is expanding its influence. Gulmira Ileuova, head of the Strategy Foundation and a member of the advisory public organization, the National Kurultai, told TCA that the Kazakh government had already taken measures to limit foreign financial influence. "Kazakhstan was among the first post-Soviet countries to regulate foreign funding, requiring grant providers to be registered. Most of these organizations, including Soros-Kazakhstan and the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation, operate within legal frameworks," she stated. Ileuova noted that German political foundations maintain a presence in Kazakhstan, while French grant-making organizations are largely absent. Beyond civil society projects, USAID also funded state-involved initiatives in education, healthcare, and energy. According to Ileuova, the withdrawal of USAID could lead to a shortfall in funding for NGOs, though state-backed projects are unlikely to be significantly affected. China’s Expanding Role Ileuova believes that China’s influence in Kazakhstan is growing faster than Russia’s, as Beijing has moved beyond economic partnerships to broader engagement." Russia relies on language and media ties to sustain its influence, while China is actively reshaping its approach," she said. Ileuova highlighted China’s soft power initiatives, including the Community of a Common Destiny for Mankind, which promotes cooperation and mutual development among nations. She also pointed to growing cultural and educational exchanges, suggesting that China’s approach mirrors past Western strategies of funding local partnerships and academic institutions. While China does not emphasize democracy or human rights in its outreach, its economic initiatives prioritize infrastructure development and poverty alleviation, often accompanied by media campaigns highlighting the benefits of Chinese investment. In recent years, Kazakhstan and China have strengthened cultural and educational ties. In August 2024, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Chinese President Xi Jinping inaugurated Chinese cultural centers in Astana and Beijing via video link. The Beijing Language and Culture University also opened a branch in Astana, marking the first Chinese university in Central Asia. Additionally, in February 2025, China’s Consul General in Almaty, Jiang Wei, attended the opening of the Belt and Road scientific and educational center in Almaty. Religious Extremism and Security Considerations Ileuova also stated that the withdrawal of USAID and Western funds is unlikely to directly impact radical religious groups, as Western organizations primarily engage with urban, educated populations rather than communities at risk of radicalization. In a recent interview, Kazakhstan’s Ambassador to Russia, Dauren Abayev, said that there is no immediate security risk from the return of Kazakh nationals who fought in Syria. According to official estimates, more than 30 Kazakhs remain in militant groups in Syria. From 2019 to 2021, the government carried out the Zhusan humanitarian operation, repatriating 600 individuals, including 413 children. Most male returnees were prosecuted and sentenced in Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan continues to monitor and prosecute individuals linked to...

1 year ago

Rare Earth Elements

Kazakhstan’s Rare Earth Ambitions Hindered by Investment and Control Challenges

Kazakhstan holds significant reserves of rare metals and rare earth elements, sometimes referred to as the "new oil" due to their increasing importance in global industries. However, experts say the country remains far from becoming a major supplier, as geopolitical tensions and a lack of large-scale investment continue to hinder development. Global Context: Rare Earth Metals in Geopolitics U.S. President Donald Trump has called for a rare-earth deal with Ukraine, raising international public interest in these minerals. While the specifics of the deal remain unclear, Trump has estimated its potential value at a trillion dollars. Meanwhile, Russia, which holds the world’s fourth-largest rare earth reserves, has expressed interest in cooperating with the U.S. in this sector. Experts argue that large-scale mining operations in Ukraine are currently unprofitable and impractical. The rare metal sector includes 60 elements, such as lithium, titanium, beryllium, gallium, and tungsten, while rare-earth metals include 17 elements, such as scandium, yttrium, and lanthanides. Their high production costs, complex extraction process, and long payback periods have made large-scale commercial extraction difficult despite growing global demand. Is Kazakhstan a Promising Market? China remains the dominant global producer of rare earth metals, followed by Brazil, India, Australia, and Russia. Despite its extensive natural resource base in oil, gas, uranium, and non-ferrous metals, Kazakhstan has yet to prioritize rare-earth extraction. However, international interest in Kazakhstan’s deposits is growing. France, Germany, and South Korea have already initiated exploration projects in the country. Germany’s HMS Bergbau AG, in collaboration with Qazaq Lithium, is developing lithium deposits in East Kazakhstan Oblast (EKO). Meanwhile, South Korea’s KIGAM has conducted exploration at the Bakennoye lithium deposit, leading to a memorandum of cooperation. The U.S. Embassy in Kazakhstan has also announced upcoming mining and processing projects for critical materials, such as lithium and titanium, involving American companies. President Tokayev has stated that Kazakhstan’s subsoil contains 50,000 to 100,000 tons of lithium, but substantial investment in exploration and development is required. Kazakhstan already holds an 11% share of the global titanium market, rising to more than 20% in the aerospace industry. Newly identified rare earth deposits were announced by the government in early 2025, totaling 2.6 million tons, including 400,000 tons of tungsten and 500,000 tons of niobium. Calls for Stronger State Control As international interest in Kazakhstan’s resources grows, concerns about foreign control over strategic assets have intensified. Financial analyst Rasul Rysmambetov has warned that major international players, particularly from Russia, may seek to dominate Kazakhstan’s rare-earth sector. “Several large Russian companies already operate in Kazakhstan. It is crucial to ensure that control over these resources remains in the hands of the state,” he said. Rysmambetov has proposed the creation of a state agency for strategic assets or expanding the jurisdiction of existing institutions, such as the National Security Committee and the Ministry of Finance. He also suggested that sales of strategic resources should require oversight from the Security Council or Parliament. “We can expect attempts by foreign firms, particularly Russian and Chinese companies, to acquire major...

1 year ago

Nuclear power

Powering the Future: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Race to Tackle Energy Crises with Nuclear Plans

Kazakhstan has officially designated the site for its first nuclear power plant (NPP), while Uzbekistan has also identified a location and announced plans to establish an international consortium. Despite severe power shortages in densely populated regions, concrete timelines for construction remain unclear. Kazakhstan Finalizes NPP Site Selection On February 25, Kazakhstan formally approved the construction site for its first NPP. A decree signed by Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov designated the Zhambyl district in the Almaty region as the site for the facility. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev reiterated in January 2025 that Kazakhstan would likely require multiple nuclear power plants, and urged the government to accelerate the construction process. International Consortium Considered for Construction Kazakhstan has yet to finalize its choice of technology and contractor. In 2024, Tokayev stated that multiple foreign companies should collaborate on the project through an international consortium. Tokayev emphasized the need for cutting-edge technology from global players. Several companies and technologies are currently under consideration, including: CNNC (China) - HPR-1000 reactor Rosatom (Russia) - VVER-1200 reactor KHNP (South Korea) - APR-1000, APR-1400 reactors EDF (France) - EPR1200 reactor. Political analyst Gaziz Abishev noted that the selection of locations and contractors reflects Kazakhstan’s multi-vector foreign policy. Abishev suggested that Kazakhstan could ultimately build three NPPs, potentially awarding contracts to Rosatom, a Chinese-French consortium, and a South Korean firm. While Rosatom remains the frontrunner, only preliminary agreements with Russia have been reported so far. Urgency Amidst a Growing Energy Deficit Kazakhstan faces an urgent need to begin NPP construction due to its increasing electricity shortfall. In 2024, electricity consumption reached 120.6 billion kWh, while production stood at 118.3 billion kWh, resulting in a 2.4 billion kWh deficit. By 2025, the deficit is projected to rise to 3.3 billion kWh. The situation is particularly dire in southern Kazakhstan, where demand far exceeds supply. The region consumes 27.7 billion kWh but produces only 15.3 billion kWh, creating a 12.4 billion kWh deficit. As a result, Kazakhstan is heavily reliant on Russian electricity imports. Aging infrastructure exacerbates the crisis. In the winters of 2023-2024, power plant failures left residents in the towns of Ridder and Ekibastuz without heat during extreme subzero temperatures. The government reports that 66% of CHPP equipment is worn out, with five major plants, in Uralsk, Stepnogorsk, Taraz, Kyzylorda, and Kentau, operating with over 80% wear and tear. The average age of CHPPs in Kazakhstan is 61 years, with 76% of plants exceeding 50 years of operation. Experts argue that Kazakhstan cannot achieve energy independence without nuclear power. The energy deficit will continue to grow, particularly in Almaty, the country’s largest city, which is at risk of blackouts and rolling outages. Uzbekistan Moves Forward with Its First NPP Uzbekistan is also advancing its nuclear energy plans. The first NPP will be built in the Jizzakh region, approximately 1,000 km from Kazakhstan’s planned plant. In May 2024, Uzatom signed a contract with Atomstroyexport, a division of Rosatom, for the construction of a 330 MW low-capacity nuclear plant consisting of six...

1 year ago