Kazakhstan has reaffirmed its commitment to the OPEC+ agreement on oil production volumes while simultaneously planning to increase production in 2025, signaling a growing influence on the international cartel despite not being a member.
In February, Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry issued a statement confirming its adherence to the OPEC+ agreement. “Kazakhstan will take the necessary measures in 2025 and 2026 to fulfill its commitments and compensate for overproduction in 2024,” the statement read.
The government acknowledged that production would increase in 2024 due to the expansion of the Tengiz field but emphasized the importance of honoring OPEC+ commitments. Kazakhstan also pledged to engage in negotiations within the framework of international law.
In March, major oil producers, including ExxonMobil, Total, and Shell, agreed to reduce oil production in Kazakhstan to align with OPEC+ requirements. “We have set quite a serious task for them to reduce oil production in Kazakhstan to achieve the planned parameters. The conversation was productive, and we did not receive any refusals,” Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliyev stated.
Similar assurances were made in April 2024, even after the country exceeded its March quota by 131,000 barrels per day.
Planned Production Increase
Despite these commitments, Kazakhstan plans to produce over 96.2 million tons of oil and gas condensate in 2025, marking a 9.7% increase from the previous year’s 87.7 million tons. According to Energy Minister Satkaliyev, Atyrau Region is expected to produce 57.4 million tons (+9.1%), Mangistau Region 17.8 million tons (+7.2%), West Kazakhstan Region 12.9 million tons (+4.9%), while Aktobe Region’s output is projected to decline slightly to 4.7 million tons (-2.1%).
Industry experts note that this decision has caused friction with OPEC+ members, particularly Saudi Arabia. Oleg Chervinsky, a columnist for the Oil and Gas of Kazakhstan. Facts and Comments Telegram channel attributes the production increase primarily to the expansion of the Tengiz field, which is set to begin operations in the second quarter of 2025 with investments totaling $533 million. Additional investments of $144 million are being made at Karachaganak, while work continues on the offshore Kalamkas-Sea-Khazar project.
Kazakhstan’s Growing Influence
Chervinsky argues that Kazakhstan has become a key player in OPEC+ despite its non-membership. In March, OPEC+ decided to increase oil production from April by approximately 138,000 barrels per day, the first such decision since 2022. The move came amid sluggish global demand and U.S. President Donald Trump’s calls for Saudi Arabia to boost production.
According to Reuters, Kazakhstan’s excess production played a significant role in OPEC+’s decision. Three sources within the cartel reported that several OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, were “outraged” by Kazakhstan’s record-breaking production levels and demanded that the country compensate for the overproduction. However, as Chervinsky points out, the cartel has no direct enforcement mechanisms over Kazakhstan, and the government remains committed to its plan to increase production by nearly 10% in 2025.
With its ability to influence OPEC+ decisions while maintaining production independence, Kazakhstan is emerging as an increasingly formidable player in the global oil market.
