Our People > Aliya Haidar

Aliya Haidar

Journalist

Aliya Haidar is a Kazakhstani journalist. She started her career in 1998, and has worked in the country's leading regional and national publications ever since.

Articles

AMM 2026

Kazakhstan Seeks More Than Extraction as U.S. Minerals Interest Grows

Kazakhstan is using renewed U.S. interest in critical minerals to push a larger industrial goal: moving beyond raw-material exports and into processing, technology transfer, and higher-value manufacturing. That ambition was on display in Astana this week across two closely linked but distinct events. The C5+1 Critical Minerals Dialogue, held on June 10, brought together representatives of the five Central Asian states and the United States for a diplomatic discussion on supply-chain cooperation. The following day, the 16th International Mining and Metallurgy Congress and Exhibition, Astana Mining & Metallurgy (AMM) 2026 opened as an industry forum for mining companies, investors, technology providers, and government officials. The proximity was deliberate; the purposes were different. For Kazakhstan, the issue is not only foreign demand. It wants critical minerals to support a wider industrial strategy, including domestic processing, engineering capacity, and new manufacturing clusters. June 10: The C5+1 Diplomatic Track The C5+1 dialogue brought together representatives of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and the United States. Its agenda covered geological exploration, surveying and mapping, mining and processing, logistics, and global value and supply chains. Kazakhstan’s Minister of Industry and Construction, Yersayin Nagaspayev, used the dialogue to present critical minerals as part of the country’s industrial policy rather than simply as an export opportunity. U.S. Special Envoy for South and Central Asian Affairs Sergio Gor represented Washington at the meeting. “Kazakhstan is interested not only in exporting raw materials, but also in developing joint production facilities, technology transfer, workforce training, and scientific cooperation,” Nagaspayev said. That point is central to Astana’s pitch. Kazakhstan has long been a major mining state, but the government is increasingly presenting critical minerals as a way to change the structure of the economy. Nagaspayev said the country has more than 9,500 mineral deposits, including more than 100 that contain rare and rare-earth metals. Kazakhstan holds significant deposits of tungsten and molybdenum and has the potential to establish a domestic raw-material base for tantalum and niobium production. It also has reserves of lithium and beryllium, which are important for advanced manufacturing, electronics, aerospace, energy storage, and defense-related industries. Kazakhstan has proven reserves or active production of roughly half of the 54 minerals identified as critical by the United States, according to Al-Farabi Ydyryshev, director general of the National Center for Technological Forecasting under the Industrial Committee. Ydyryshev said Kazakhstan already has extraction and processing capacity for materials used in aerospace, electronics, energy, and defense industries, including beryllium, tantalum, niobium, titanium, and rhenium. The question is whether those capabilities can be expanded into higher-value production. Washington’s interest in Central Asia has grown as critical minerals have become a larger part of economic security policy. China remains dominant in the production and processing of many minerals needed for batteries, semiconductors, renewable energy, digital infrastructure, and advanced defense systems. Speaking at the June 10 meeting, Gor linked the minerals agenda to the need for diversification. “Our economic security depends on our ability to diversify our access to critical minerals,” Gor said. “Ensuring reliable access...

11 hours ago

amnesty

Kazakhstan Amnesty Bill Could Free 1,500 Inmates, Excludes Violent Offenders

Kazakhstan’s Mazhilis, the lower house of parliament, has approved in its first reading a draft amnesty law tied to the adoption of the country’s new Constitution. The measure could affect approximately 16,500 people, including around 1,500 inmates who could be released from prisons and other detention facilities. The initiative is notable for its scale and because it combines criminal and administrative amnesty measures for the first time in Kazakhstan’s history. According to lawmakers, the administrative component alone could affect around one million unpaid fines. The proposal has sparked public debate over whether individuals involved in high-profile criminal cases could benefit from the measure. Some lawmakers have also argued that journalists and bloggers convicted under controversial legislation should be included. Who Will Benefit? According to Snezhanna Imasheva, chair of the Mazhilis Committee on Legislation and Judicial and Legal Reform, individuals convicted of minor offenses and criminal misdemeanors would be eligible for full release from punishment. For offenses classified as medium severity, a different approach would apply. Individuals who caused no damage, or who have fully compensated victims, could qualify for complete release. Others could receive reductions in the remaining portions of their sentences. Among the most common offenses covered by the amnesty are theft, livestock theft, and embezzlement or misappropriation of entrusted property. Certain economic crimes may also qualify for partial sentence reductions. In some cases, individuals convicted of fraud could receive reduced sentences, provided the offenses do not involve corruption, particularly large-scale damages, or other exclusions specified in the legislation. Imasheva said that approximately one million unpaid administrative fines totaling nearly $33 million could be written off. The measure would apply to fines for offenses committed before midnight on March 17, 2026, shortly after Kazakhstan’s new Constitution was adopted in a nationwide referendum. Who Will Not Be Released? The draft law excludes crimes against life and health, corruption offenses, terrorism, and extremism. Those convicted of murder, assisting suicide, intentional infliction of serious, moderate, or minor bodily harm, assault, torture, stalking, HIV transmission, and sexual offenses will not be eligible for amnesty. Those convicted of murder, assisting suicide, intentional infliction of bodily harm, assault, torture, stalking, HIV transmission, and sexual offenses will not be eligible for amnesty. The measure also excludes recently criminalized offenses such as acting as a financial “dropper” in fraud schemes and bride kidnapping. High-Profile Convicts Remain Excluded Former minister of national economy Kuandyk Bishimbayev, who was convicted in May 2024 of murdering his common-law wife, Saltanat Nukenova, will neither be released nor receive a sentence reduction. His convictions for murder committed with extreme cruelty and torture fall among the offenses excluded from the amnesty. Another widely publicized defendant, Perizat Kairat, will also be ineligible. Kairat, the founder of the charity Biz Birgemiz Qazaqstan 2030, was convicted in a high-profile fraud case involving funds raised for flood victims and other charitable causes. Lawmakers said her conviction for large-scale fraud falls under offenses excluded from the amnesty. In July 2025, Kairat was sentenced to ten years in prison, while her...

1 week ago

Fuel prices

Why Oil-Rich Kazakhstan Is Bracing for Higher Fuel Prices

Fuel prices in Kazakhstan are expected to rise significantly, according to Kazakh energy analysts. Although the country remains a major oil exporter and plans to expand its refining capacity, analysts warn that these measures alone will not resolve the structural problems behind rising fuel costs. Some Kazakh energy analysts have already described 2026 as “the final year of cheap gasoline” before Kazakhstan becomes more closely integrated into the Eurasian Economic Union’s common oil and petroleum products market. The situation is further complicated by the conflict in the Middle East, which has added volatility to global oil markets. For Kazakhstan, however, the deeper problem is domestic: low-regulated prices, refinery constraints, gray-market exports, and the rising cost of crude. Higher fuel prices also carry particular political sensitivity. The unrest that shook the country in January 2022 was triggered by a sharp increase in liquefied petroleum gas prices. Any new surge in gasoline or diesel costs could ripple through the economy, accelerating inflation and increasing social tensions. A Politically Explosive Commodity Kazakhstan’s leadership learned the political risks of fuel pricing during the January 2022 crisis, when protests erupted in the western city of Zhanaozen after liquefied petroleum gas prices rose sharply. Although the government quickly intervened and blamed unscrupulous suppliers, the protests rapidly escalated into nationwide unrest. Over several days, 238 people were killed, government buildings and security facilities were seized in multiple cities, and the country faced its worst political crisis since independence. In response, the authorities imposed a 180-day moratorium on fuel price increases, with some restrictions lasting even longer. Even then, it was clear that artificially suppressing fuel prices required substantial state subsidies, while the cost of oil extraction continued to rise. The “Last Year” of Cheap Fuel? Earlier this year, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy warned that domestic fuel prices would need to gradually move closer to those in Russia by the end of 2026. Officials linked the expected price convergence to the planned launch of the EAEU’s common oil and petroleum products market on January 1, 2027. At current exchange rates, gasoline prices at Kazakh filling stations remain roughly half those in Russia. A similar price gap exists with Kyrgyzstan, encouraging the unofficial export of cheap Kazakh fuel to neighboring countries. In practice, that means Kazakhstan faces pressure from both sides: raising prices risks public anger, while keeping them low encourages fuel to leave the country unofficially. The Energy Ministry insists that future price increases will not amount to “shock therapy” for consumers. Officials say the transition toward a common EAEU fuel market will occur gradually through legislative harmonization rather than through an immediate equalization of prices across member states. At the same time, the authorities acknowledge that the large price gap with neighboring countries creates strong incentives for gray-market exports of subsidized fuel, increasing the risk of artificial shortages inside Kazakhstan. According to the ministry, the current low-price environment also limits investment in the sector. Significant funding is needed to expand the Shymkent, Atyrau and Pavlodar refineries and,...

2 weeks ago

Myths

Kazakhstan’s Haunted Steppe: Myths, Cold War Ruins, and Unexplained Phenomena

Kazakhstan’s vast steppes, deserts, mountains, and abandoned Soviet sites have produced a mythology of their own. Some stories are folklore. Others grew from real geography, ecological disaster, nuclear testing, secretive institutions, and the long shadow of the Cold War. That mix helps explain why tales of lost islands, strange stones, atomic ghosts, and unidentified flying objects still circulate across the country. The most interesting stories are not necessarily the ones that prove anything paranormal. They are the ones that show how history and landscape can turn into legend. You Will Go But Never Return One of Kazakhstan’s best-known mysterious places is Barsakelmes, whose name is usually translated from Kazakh as “You Will Go But Never Return.” The former island, once located in the Aral Sea, was less than 20 kilometers long, but it acquired an outsized reputation during the Soviet period. [caption id="attachment_49303" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Barsakelmes[/caption] Today, Barsakelmes is no longer technically an island. The Aral Sea has largely dried up after one of the world’s major ecological disasters, and the surrounding landscape has changed almost beyond recognition. The island’s name did much of the work. So did Soviet-era popular culture. Russian science-fiction writer Sergei Lukyanenko, who was born in Kazakhstan, helped deepen its mystique through a story published in the Soviet magazine Tekhnika Molodezhi. In that fictional version, Barsakelmes became a deadly place linked to secret laboratories, biological experiments, and mutant soldiers. The confirmed history is less lurid, but still striking. Local accounts and researchers have linked the name to earlier tragedies, including stories of herders who died while trying to cross the frozen Aral Sea. Over time, those disappearances became part of the island’s reputation as a place from which people did not return. The mystery deepened in the 2000s, when archaeologists found burial grounds and remains of ancient settlements on the dried seabed near Barsakelmes. The finds, dated to the 11th-14th centuries, included religious structures and evidence of trade links that may have extended toward China. Some homes reportedly contained jars still filled with grain, suggesting that residents left suddenly. Whether they fled a flood, conflict, or another disaster is less certain. But it is easy to see how the physical evidence of abrupt abandonment fed older stories about a cursed landscape. Even the island’s natural features became part of the legend. Fishermen once avoided the area after seeing what they thought were huge bones along the shore. They were, in fact, large gypsum formations glinting in the sun. Today, Barsakelmes is also a protected area and a refuge for rare wildlife, showing how a place associated with loss can also become a site of recovery. The Stone Spheres of Mangystau Another of Kazakhstan’s strange landscapes lies on the Mangystau Peninsula in the west of the country, about 150 kilometers from Aktau. There, in a valley that resembles a Martian plain, hundreds of large stone spheres are scattered across the ground. Some are several meters in diameter. Visitors have compared them to giant balls, prehistoric eggs, or...

3 weeks ago

Iran

Kazakhstan Signals Nuclear Diplomacy Role as Iran Uranium Dispute Intensifies

Kazakhstan is seeking a place in the next phase of the Iran nuclear dispute, not as a direct mediator between Washington and Tehran, but as a possible technical partner if talks turn to the handling of enriched uranium. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has said Kazakhstan is ready to assist if international agreements are reached. The offer reflects Astana’s long effort to turn its Soviet nuclear legacy, disarmament record, and nonproliferation infrastructure into diplomatic capital. The dispute has become more urgent as U.S.-Iran talks come under growing strain. According to Iran’s Fars News Agency, Washington has demanded the transfer of approximately 400 kilograms of enriched uranium and major restrictions on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Tehran, in turn, has insisted on sanctions relief, the unfreezing of foreign assets, compensation for wartime damage, and security guarantees. U.S. President Donald Trump has described Iran’s demands as “unacceptable.” He later said he had postponed a possible military strike on Iran following appeals from the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, citing what he called ongoing “serious negotiations.” Against that backdrop, Tokayev said during a May 11 meeting with Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira that Kazakhstan was ready, “as a gesture of goodwill,” to help resolve the Iranian nuclear issue. He said any such role would depend on relevant international agreements being reached and carried out in practice. According to Akorda, Tokayev also reiterated Kazakhstan’s commitment to the peaceful use of nuclear energy under International Atomic Energy Agency oversight. The statement did not amount to an offer to mediate directly between Washington and Tehran. It was narrower and more practical. Kazakhstan is presenting itself as a state with broad international trust, technical experience, and nuclear infrastructure to support a settlement should the main parties agree on one. Tokayev placed that argument directly into the Iran debate at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum in April. “The core issue is the proliferation of nuclear technologies and nuclear weapons. This must remain the central subject of negotiations in the context of the situation surrounding Iran,” he said. For Kazakhstan, that distinction is central to the way it presents itself internationally. The country has built much of its post-Soviet foreign policy identity around nuclear nonproliferation. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that Kazakhstan’s anti-nuclear stance is not only a diplomatic position, but part of the country’s modern national identity. The Soviet Union conducted 456 nuclear tests at the Semipalatinsk test site between 1949 and 1989, leaving long-term environmental and public health damage in eastern Kazakhstan. After independence, Kazakhstan transferred its inherited nuclear warheads to Russia and joined the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as a non-nuclear-weapon state. Kazakhstan has direct technical experience with sensitive nuclear material. In 1994, under Operation Sapphire, roughly 600 kilograms of highly enriched uranium were removed from the Ulba Metallurgical Plant in Ust-Kamenogorsk and transferred to the United States. TCA previously reported that the operation remains one of the strongest examples of Kazakhstan’s role in practical nonproliferation work. Kazakhstan has been involved...

3 weeks ago

digital economy

Kazakhstan Accelerates AI Push to Build Digital Economy

Kazakhstan must accelerate its transition to a digital economy and scale up artificial intelligence if it wants to avoid economic stagnation, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has said. Speaking on May 4 at a meeting of the AI Development Council, Tokayev warned that Kazakhstan’s traditional growth drivers, including natural resources and low-cost labor, are nearing exhaustion, while new engines of growth have yet to take shape. According to the president, Kazakhstan is already facing the “middle-income trap.” He said avoiding stagnation requires a shift to a digital economy and the development of platform-based solutions. “Without a unified system of government data, artificial intelligence will remain ineffective,” Tokayev said. He called for public services to become an “invisible but highly efficient operating system” capable of reducing processing times from days to seconds, which he said would accelerate capital turnover across the economy. Kazakhstan has begun testing this approach in customs, tax administration, logistics, and public finance. The KEDEN customs platform has cut declaration processing times to under one minute, while Smart Cargo is being developed as a single digital window for logistics services. The integrated tax administration system has reduced document processing times from one hour to one minute. The Smart Data Finance platform brings together data from 78 sources, including financial transactions and transport activity. Authorities say real-time budget monitoring has helped prevent risky payments worth hundreds of billions of tenge. A public procurement forecasting system, built on a national product catalog with more than 23 million items, is also being developed to reduce budget waste. Tokayev said the digital economy already accounts for more than 15% of global GDP, reflecting a shift in global competition from goods markets to data and standards. He also emphasized the need to develop digital financial instruments, including cryptocurrencies and asset tokenization. “This will increase the country’s attractiveness for global capital and create the conditions for Kazakhstan to become a leading investment and financial hub,” he said. According to Tokayev, Kazakhstan has already established a legal framework for regulating digital assets. The government and the National Bank have been tasked with coordinating a strategy for developing the crypto market. At the same time, Tokayev stressed the need for more precise measurement of digitalization’s contribution to economic growth. “When GDP growth is reported, it is essential to clearly understand what share comes from the real sector and what from innovation,” he said, warning that the absence of a clear methodology could create an illusion of progress while masking underlying challenges. Tokayev also visited the GITEX AI Central Asia & Caucasus exhibition, where projects in AI, logistics, and fintech were showcased. Among them was an AI assistant deployed in Kazakhtelecom’s contact center, where it processes customer requests and helps detect fraudulent calls. Projects aimed at developing a digital asset ecosystem and crypto market infrastructure were also presented, including tokenized financial instruments on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange. Experts say Kazakhstan is already taking steps to compete in the global technology landscape. According to Rustem Mustafin, head of the Center...

1 month ago

Nuclear Diplomacy

Kazakhstan’s Nuclear Diplomacy Offers Lessons for Iran Crisis

Ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran have yet to resolve a key issue: what will happen to the enriched uranium currently held by a country engulfed in conflict. Beyond political considerations, there are also significant technical challenges, namely, how such material could be safely removed from Iran if an agreement is reached. Kazakhstan, however, has previously carried out a unique operation of this kind, later documented in detail through U.S. and Kazakh accounts, and has a long track record of constructive engagement in nuclear diplomacy. The Uranium Question The parties to the conflict, the United States, Israel, and Iran, remain deeply divided on core issues. Various countries, including Pakistan, have been involved as mediators. At the same time, the situation is complicated by broader military and economic tensions, including the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian oil exports and Iran’s continuing obstruction of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz dominates headlines, often diverting attention from the central issue: the fate of Iran’s uranium stockpile. Axios reported that U.S. and Iranian negotiators had discussed a possible arrangement involving the release of frozen Iranian funds, with a figure of $20 billion under discussion. One U.S. official described that figure as a U.S. proposal, while U.S. President Donald Trump later denied that any money would change hands. IAEA-linked figures put Iran’s stockpile at about 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, close to weapons-grade levels if further enriched. Trump has expressed confidence that Iran will agree to a deal and that the uranium can be removed. Iranian officials, however, have rejected this claim, stating that they do not intend to transfer enriched uranium to the United States or any other country. Tokayev’s Position On April 17, 2026, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev addressed the issue during a diplomatic forum in Antalya, warning that excessive focus on trade routes and the Strait of Hormuz risks overshadowing the core problem, the nuclear issue. “The essence of the problem lies in the proliferation of nuclear technologies and nuclear weapons. This must be the central topic of negotiations when it comes to the conflict around Iran,” Tokayev said. Experts have since highlighted the complexity of the task facing policymakers: not only negotiating terms but physically removing enriched uranium from Iran. This would involve dealing with potentially damaged facilities, ensuring security, deploying specialist teams, defining transport routes, establishing international oversight, and determining a final destination for the material. Against this backdrop, Tokayev’s remarks carry particular weight. While the United States is reported to be insisting not only on limiting future enrichment but also on transferring existing stockpiles, Iran is seeking to separate the nuclear issue from the broader regional crisis. Tokayev, by contrast, has emphasized that energy and shipping disruptions are symptoms of a deeper conflict, with the nuclear issue at its core. Operation Sapphire Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan inherited the world’s fourth-largest nuclear arsenal, after Russia, the United States, and Ukraine. The country was also...

1 month ago

Geopolitics

Political Analyst Karazhanov: Stability Is Central Asia’s Greatest Advantage

International events where Kazakhstan and Central Asia present their agenda and demonstrate the benefits of predictability bring significant advantages to the region. In an interview with The Times of Central Asia, Kazakh political analyst Zamir Karazhanov explains how the region is gradually changing its approach to addressing key challenges. According to Karazhanov, Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries, particularly Uzbekistan, have recently begun positioning themselves on the international stage in a far more pragmatic and modern way. A prime example is the speech delivered on April 17 by Kazakhstan’s President, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum in Turkey. Observers noted that Tokayev outlined the role Kazakhstan is seeking to play in the evolving geopolitical landscape. The key message was that global governance is becoming less effective through traditional institutions, while the role of so-called “middle powers” is increasing. These countries may not define the global order on their own, but they are capable of promoting peaceful solutions, engaging in dialogue, and offering predictability. In addition, on April 22, Astana hosted the first Regional Environmental Summit (RES), which brought together around 1,500 participants from Central Asia, the European Union, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and the Middle East. The forum aimed to develop practical solutions to environmental and climate challenges facing both the Eurasia region and the wider world. During the discussions, representatives of Central Asian countries presented a realistic assessment of environmental issues and proposed a number of solutions. Environmental Threats Karazhanov noted that Kazakhstan has long faced difficult environmental conditions. “In addition to urban pollution, we have zones of ecological disaster, such as the Aral Sea. The country [Kazakhstan] hosts numerous extractive industries, and it is landlocked, located deep within the continent. Any environmental catastrophe here would have far more severe consequences than in countries without such constraints. Climate change is intensifying, temperatures are rising, and Central Asia is already experiencing acute water shortages. Without timely measures, the situation could become critical,” he said. According to him, Kazakhstan has long been dealing with environmental migration and has proactively begun building the necessary legal and social frameworks. Conflicts over water resources have already occurred in Central Asia. Karazhanov emphasized the importance of including representatives of countries that regulate the region’s water systems in the Astana forum. “This creates an opportunity for dialogue. Take the example of the two rivers that feed the Aral Sea, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya. At one point, Kyrgyzstan suspended its participation in the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea because it felt its interests were constrained. It is essential to create a platform where all five countries in the region are satisfied with water distribution,” he said. He also highlighted Afghanistan as an increasingly important factor that has not been fully accounted for. As the country rebuilds after decades of conflict, its agriculture and other sectors will expand, increasing demand for water from transboundary rivers. “That is why the summit should be viewed in the broader context of regional development and good neighborly...

2 months ago

parliamentary elections

How Kazakhstan Is Preparing for Parliamentary Elections

Kazakhstan is preparing for a major political reset centered on the introduction of a unicameral parliament, the Kurultai. Until now, legislative power in the country has been exercised by two chambers, the Mazhilis and the Senate. On April 10, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced that elections would take place in August 2026. According to Tokayev, political parties will have a clear planning horizon and enough time to prepare for the campaign and voter outreach. A Stage Already Passed In 2023, Kazakhstan introduced significant changes to its political system. For the first time in 19 years, a mixed electoral model was used in elections to the lower chamber, the Mazhilis. Under this system, 69 deputies were elected via party lists, while 29 were chosen in single-member constituencies, allowing candidates to run independently of party affiliation. This option has now been removed, although the reasons remain unclear. These reforms were presented as part of a broader democratization effort. In the 2023 parliamentary elections, six parties passed the 5% threshold. Amanat, formerly Nur Otan, won 53.9% of the vote, followed by Auyl with 10.9%, Respublica with 8.59%, Aq Jol with 8.41%, the People’s Party of Kazakhstan with 6.8%, and the Nationwide Social Democratic Party (OSDP) with 5.2%. The Baytaq party received 2.3% and did not enter parliament. In practice, however, Amanat has remained the most active force in the Mazhilis. Some initiatives from Aq Jol, traditionally focused on business interests, have also stood out, while other parties have been less visible to voters. Amanat has advantages not available to other parties, including the presence of many senior officials in its ranks. The Auyl party was expected to represent agrarian and conservative interests, but its initiatives have not been clearly articulated. The OSDP, which has long positioned itself as an opposition party, previously claimed it was excluded from parliament. However, once represented in the Mazhilis, its initiatives have largely focused on narrow issues and have had limited impact on the broader political agenda. The People’s Party of Kazakhstan, once known for raising sharp issues, has been less active in the current parliament. Against this backdrop, Aq Jol has been comparatively stronger, showing a greater ability to shape the agenda and articulate clear positions. Baytaq has occupied an environmental niche, but despite the country’s significant ecological challenges, its voice has remained faint, making its prospects of entering the Kurultai uncertain. Respublica, a new party founded by young entrepreneurs, has also struggled to produce notable results. A potential eighth party, Adilet, may soon join the seven officially registered parties. The party has announced its launch and begun the registration process, though it has yet to name a formal leader. Some political analysts have described Adilet as a pro-government party. Political analyst Daniyar Ashimbayev noted that the concept of multiple pro-government parties is not new in Kazakhstan and suggested that some deputies could shift to Adilet by July. Systemic Criticism Political parties represented in parliament are regularly criticized by analysts for holding positions that closely align with Amanat...

2 months ago

Economic Growth

Why Strong Economic Growth in Central Asia Masks Underlying Risks

Central Asian countries are significantly outperforming the global average in GDP growth, largely due to differing economic models across the region. However, rapid expansion does not remove deep structural vulnerabilities. As early as March, data showed that the combined economies of Central Asian countries grew by nearly 7% in 2025 compared to the previous year. The World Bank estimates regional growth at 6.2%, while the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) places it at 6.6%. These calculations include Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan; Turkmenistan is excluded due to limited statistical transparency. By comparison, growth rates in advanced economies are much lower. The EDB expects around 1.6% growth in the U.S. and approximately 1.1% in the eurozone in 2026, while China’s economy is projected to expand by about 4.6%. Nevertheless, experts note that the region’s economic outlook remains complicated by high inflation, income inequality, and continued dependence on external factors. Investment activity and domestic demand have been the key drivers of growth, according to the EDB. Kazakhstan recorded its highest growth in 13 years (6.5%), with industry leading the expansion: mining grew by 9.4% and manufacturing by 6.4%. In 2026, the non-resource sector is expected to play a greater role. Kyrgyzstan has led the region in GDP growth for the third consecutive year: GDP grew by 11.1% in 2025 and by 9% in January 2026. In Uzbekistan, GDP increased by 7.7% in 2025 (up from 6.7% a year earlier), supported by investment, trade, services, and construction. Tajikistan’s GDP rose by 8.4% in 2025, matching the previous year’s performance. Growth continues to be driven by expanding industrial production and strong domestic demand. Early 2026 data suggest this momentum is holding. Uzbekistan’s Record In April, the World Bank highlighted Uzbekistan’s resilience to external challenges and strong growth dynamics. According to its updated report, the country’s 2025 GDP growth was revised upward by 1.5 percentage points to 7.7%. The outlook is 6.4% for 2026 and 6.7% for 2027. Key drivers include high global gold prices, investment inflows, expanded lending, and ongoing structural reforms. Rising household incomes have also played an important role, supported by remittances, which increased by 37% last year to reach $18.9 billion. By the end of 2025, Uzbekistan ranked among the fastest-growing economies in developing countries in Europe and Central Asia, alongside Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The region as a whole is experiencing its highest growth rates in 14 years. At the same time, analysts point to persistent structural constraints, including a large public sector and the dominance of state-owned enterprises, which hinder private sector development. External risks, including geopolitical instability and potential disruptions in energy and fertilizer supplies, remain significant. In 2025, Uzbekistan’s GDP exceeded €133 billion, compared to approximately €56 billion nine years earlier. Over the same period, GDP per capita rose from about €1,750 to around €3,220, nearly doubling average income levels. Investment in fixed capital increased by more than 15% year-on-year in 2025, while export value grew by over 33%. Persistently high global gold prices played a major role: export...

2 months ago

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