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Bruce Pannier

Bruce Pannier is a Central Asia Fellow in the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, the advisory board at the Caspian Policy Center, and a longtime journalist and correspondent covering Central Asia. For a decade, he appeared regularly on the Majlis podcast for RFE/RL, and now broadcasts his Spotlight on Central Asia podcast in partnership with The Times of Central Asia.

Articles

Kyrgyzstan Elections

Kyrgyzstan Election Delivers Wins for Women and the President’s Allies

Kyrgyzstan held snap parliamentary elections on November 30 that seem not to have elicited widespread enthusiasm among the electorate. Not long ago, Kyrgyzstan had the most vibrant political culture in Central Asia. Campaigning for parliamentary elections was a lively period that was impossible not to notice. Parties and candidates were in the news constantly in the weeks before the elections. There were campaign posters and signs, and public events with concerts organized by parties or candidates all around the country. The rapid pace of these latest elections, in which candidates had only 20 days to campaign, might have contributed to voter confusion and apathy on election day, but the elections do seem to have come off without any major controversy. In a country that has had three revolutions in the last 20 years, two of them directly connected to parliamentary elections, a quiet election day is a victory of sorts. Election Day Polls opened at 8:00 local time, and several hours after they closed at 20:00, Kyrgyzstan’s Central Election Commission reported that 36.9% of eligible voters had cast ballots. The last few elections in Kyrgyzstan have seen turnouts of less than 40%. This time, the Kyrgyz authorities were hoping for a significant increase in participation to validate the new system for parliamentary elections approved earlier this year. However, the turnout of 36.9% was only slightly better than the 34.61% of voters who took part in the November 2021 parliamentary elections. As many as 500,000 Kyrgyz citizens are working or living outside Kyrgyzstan, and only just over 26,000 showed up at any of the 100 polling stations in 34 countries. Five of Kyrgyzstan’s last six parliamentary elections were decided based on party lists. The last parliamentary elections were conducted under a split system, whereby 54 of the 90 seats in parliament were selected via party lists, and the other 36 seats in single-mandate districts. This time, all 90 seats were chosen under a majoritarian system, with a twist. The country was divided up into 30 electoral districts, each of which selected three deputies. Kyrgyzstan had a requirement that at least 30% of the seats in parliament should go to women, but that quota has not been observed in recent elections. In the November 30 elections, at least one woman had to be among the three candidates who secured seats in parliament, though up to two women could win in a district (at least one of the winners was required to be a man). Election results confirmed that one woman won a seat in every district, but only one. There were no instances where two women took seats in a district. Also, according to the preliminary election results, all the women who won came in third place in their districts, with one exception. In District 23, veteran MP Elvira Surabaldiyeva took the most votes. Results posted by AKI Press showed that without the requirement of one female deputy per district, only seven women would have become deputies. Name recognition was bound to...

6 days ago

Oil and Gas

KMG Pushes Back on Reports of European Asset Sale Amid Romania Refinery Losses

KazMunaiGaz (KMG) says it has no concrete plans to sell any of its European assets, though pressure is building to at least sell off some of the Kazakh company’s shares in oil refineries in Romania. Reports on November 21 said KMG was looking to privatize up to 50% of its shares in its subsidiary KMG International’s (KMGI) European operations in Europe. The reports were based on a list of recommendations from Kazakhstan’s Agency for the Protection and Development of Competition (APDC), which proposed, as part of the 2026-2027 strategy, that KMGI should have a two-stage tender to sell up to 50% of its stakes. On November 26, KMG denied making any decisions about KMGI businesses in Europe, adding that the APDC’s list of recommendations “includes assets from different sectors, but this in itself does not automatically trigger a sale.” Rompetrol KMGI has 28 companies operating in seven countries, four of them European, but the focus of reports was on the two oil refineries KMGI owns in Romania. KMGI purchased 75% of the shares in the Romanian oil company Rompetrol in 2007, and in 2009 bought the remaining 25% of shares in the company. That sale included the Petromidia oil refinery, with a capacity of some five million tons annually, and the smaller Vega refinery, with a capacity of some 350,000 tons that Rompetrol owns. KMGI also took ownership of the oil terminal near Constanta on the Black Sea coast, some 20 kilometers from the Petromidia refinery. The terminal imports mainly Kazakh oil. KMGI invested billions of dollars in upgrades and modernization of the refineries and the terminal, and finally, in 2017, operations of subsidiary Rompetrol Rafinare (54.63% KMGI and 44.7% Romanian state through the energy Ministry) showed a profit - $80 million. By 2022, profits had slightly increased to $90.3 million, but in December that year, the Romanian authorities changed tax regulations, and in 2023, Rompetrol Rafinare registered a net loss of some $270.5 million, and in 2024, a loss of $78 million. In the first six months of 2025, the company lost $53 million and paid some $771 million in taxes to the Romanian government. Rompetrol Rafinare has complained to the Romanian government that the tax burden is preventing the company from investing in new projects and has brought a legal challenge to the solidarity tax in court. In such a situation, it seems unlikely KMG would easily find a party interested in buying up to 50% of KMGI’s Romanian operation, unless the price was very low. Opponents of the proposed arrangement point to the $7 billion in investment KMG has made over nearly 20 years into upgrading the Romanian refineries as a reason to be patient for a while longer. KMGI KMG has subsidiaries operating in Switzerland, Bulgaria, Turkey, Moldova, and Georgia, as well as in Romania and Kazakhstan. At the start of 2025, there were reports that KMG was considering the acquisition of an oil refinery in Bulgaria from Russia’s LUKoil, so it appeared the Kazakh company...

1 week ago

Kyrgyzstan Elections

Kyrgyzstan Elections 2025: Short Campaign, High Stakes

Campaigning for seats in Kyrgyzstan’s upcoming parliamentary elections is underway, and it is already shaping up to be a race unlike anything seen before in Kyrgyzstan. The 467 candidates competing for the 90 seats in parliament have only 20 days to make their cases to voters in their districts. Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov’s government has vowed to keep these elections clean and fair, and threatened severe punishment for those who attempt to cheat in any way. Uneven Electoral Landscape The country is divided into 30 voting districts, and in each district, the three candidates who receive the most votes will win seats. The level of competition varies, depending on the district. Electoral district 11, which is Manas city (formerly Jalal-Abad), has 155,023 eligible voters. Only five candidates are running in the district, three of whom are women. According to new election rules, a woman (or a man) must win at least one of the three seats available in each district. Name recognition is always important, and especially so in elections with many newcomers seeking seats in parliament. One of the candidates in District 11 is Shairbek Tashiyev, the brother of the current head of the State Committee for National Security (GKNB), Kamchybek Tashiyev. He is almost certain to win one of the seats. In electoral district 19 in Kyrgyzstan’s northern Chuy Province, with 138,373 eligible voters, there are 25 candidates competing. The two districts with the largest number of voters, district 15 in the Aksy area of western Kyrgyzstan with 160,218 voters, and district 28 in the Zhety-Oguz area of eastern Kyrgyzstan with 160,181 voters, have, respectively, 15 candidates and 17 candidates. In the districts where there are 15 or more candidates, the three winners might only receive around 10,000 votes, or even less. The candidates are out meeting with voters, but many are relying on social networks to promote their image and spread their message. Domestic television stations, ElTR and UTRK, are airing candidate debates that “will be distributed regionally, depending on the candidates' electoral districts.” Not Running Eleven of the current 90 deputies in parliament have opted not to run for reelection. Among them are Iskhak Masaliyev - currently in the Butun (United) Kyrgyzstan Party but previously the long-time head of Kyrgyzstan’s Communist Party - the son of Absamat Masaliyev, who was first secretary of the Communist Party of the “Kirghizia” Soviet Socialist Republic from 1985 until independence in August 1991. Another current member of parliament who is not running is Jalolidin Nurbayev, whose attempt to register was rejected due to two criminal cases having previously been opened against him, one in 2006, the other in 2021.” A new election rule prohibits people whose cases were “terminated on non-rehabilitating grounds” from being eligible to hold public office. Effectively, this means that any case against them has been closed without declaring the person innocent, but without restoring their reputation, even though they are no longer being prosecuted. Members of organized criminal groups and their family members have won seats...

3 weeks ago

Kyrgyzstan Elections

Kyrgyzstan Election 2025: New Rules, New Map, Same High Stakes

Kyrgyzstan is conducting snap parliamentary elections on November 30. The deadline for would-be candidates to hand in their forms was October 30. Nearly 600 prospective contenders have submitted registration forms to run for the 90 seats in parliament. The Central Election Commission (CEC) now has until November to process candidates’ applications to ensure they meet all the requirements to participate in the upcoming poll. Those who qualify will then have 18 days to convince voters in their districts to cast their ballots for them. The Basics These will be the ninth parliamentary elections held in Kyrgyzstan since the country became independent in late 1991. The reason officials gave for moving elections forward from November 2026 is that the next presidential election is scheduled for January 2027. However, in June 2025, amendments to the electoral system came into effect that changed the voting system and redivided electoral districts, opening the way to hold early elections. Parliament voted to dissolve itself in late September, and shortly after, the date of the forthcoming election was announced. To be eligible to run for a seat in parliament, a Kyrgyz citizen must be at least 25 years old, have a higher education, and have lived continuously in Kyrgyzstan for the last five years. Anyone with a criminal record is barred from participating. In Kyrgyzstan’s parliamentary elections in the 1990s and early 2000s, some prominent opposition figures were convicted of what appeared to be politically motivated charges and imprisoned to prevent them from taking part in elections. This happened to so many opposition politicians that after Kyrgyzstan’s first revolution, the Tulip Revolution of March 2005, a rule was introduced that allowed people with previous convictions to run for office. Now, an exception is made only for those whose convictions were later overturned. What’s New? These elections will be decided through single-mandate voting. That is not new. It was the way Kyrgyzstan’s parliamentary elections were conducted until 2007. The constitutional referendum of October 2007 changed the electoral system and introduced voting by party-list. Then-President Kurmanbek Baliyev formed the Ak-Jol party immediately after the referendum, and the party went on to win more than 60% of seats in parliament in the elections in December 2007. Bakiyev’s attempts to concentrate power into his hands eventually backfired and played a role in his ouster in the revolution of April 2010. Elections continued to be conducted by party list in 2010, 2015, and 2020. However, the elections of 2020 were plagued by allegations of rigging and vote-buying during the campaign, and when two pro-government parties won the majority of seats, it sparked another revolution that saw current President Sadyr Japarov come to power. The deputies elected in 2015 remained in their posts for more than another year. The last parliamentary elections in November 2021 were held using a mixed system, whereby 36 seats were decided by single-mandate voting, and 54 by party lists. President Japarov signed amendments to the election laws in June 2025, one of which was to decide the...

1 month ago

Border Incident

Tajikistan and the Taliban – Talking and Fighting

Peaceful coexistence is turning out to be complicated for Tajikistan and the Taliban government in Afghanistan. The Tajik government has viewed the Taliban as a threat since the militant group appeared in Afghanistan in the mid-1990s. But now that modest efforts are underway to establish some sort of amicable ties, there has been an uptick of violence directly involving the two sides along the Tajik-Afghan border. Let’s Keep This Between Us Tajikistan is the lone government in Central Asia that remained hostile to the Taliban after the latter returned to power in Afghanistan in August 2021. In the weeks that followed, the Taliban again exerted control over Afghanistan, and the Tajik government and the Taliban sent reinforcements to their common border. Russia and Pakistan had to intervene to ease tensions. The other Central Asian states, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, have all established a business relationship with the Taliban government since the Taliban again seized control, but Tajikistan has remained aloof. Which is why the visit of Muhammad Yusuf Vafo, the governor of Afghanistan’s northern province of Balkh, to the Tajik capital Dushanbe on October 23 came as such a surprise. The Tajik government did not say anything about Vafo’s trip. The independent Tajik news agency Asia-Plus cited Afghan media as reporting on the visit, during which Vafo met with the head of Tajikistan’s National Security Committee (GKNB), Saimumin Yatimov. Vafo and Yatimov reportedly discussed ways to improve ties in a variety of spheres and pledged not to let any “hostile elements” use their territory to plot or carry out attacks on the country. An estimated several hundred Jamaat Ansarullah militants of Tajik origin continue to operate in Afghanistan. The group allied with the Taliban during the last years foreign forces were in Afghanistan, propping up the government of Ashraf Ghani, and stayed in Afghanistan after the Ghani government fell. Jamaat Ansarullah fighters were among the reinforcements the Taliban sent to the Tajik border during the weeks of tension in late 2021. There were reports soon after the Taliban returned to power that Tajikistan was aiding the National Resistance Front (NRF), a mainly ethnic Tajik group of former government soldiers who continue to wage a guerrilla campaign against the Taliban. NRF leader Ahmad Masoud, the son of the legendary Afghan field commander and ethnic Tajik, Ahmad Shah Masoud, has been in Dushanbe several times since August 2021, and there was a report that the NRF opened an office in Dushanbe in October that year. Shortly after Vafo’s visit to Dushanbe, Taliban sources in Balkh Province told the Pakistani-based Khorasan Diary website that Tajik authorities had banned the NRF, but the Tajik authorities stated that no such decision was made. Yatimov’s meeting with Vafo was not the first time the Tajik GKNB chief had met with Taliban representatives. In September 2024, Yatimov went to Kabul to hold security talks with Taliban officials, though the Tajik authorities never confirmed that meeting. Both parties are concerned about militants from the Islamic State of...

1 month ago