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Bruce Pannier

Bruce Pannier is a Central Asia Fellow in the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, the advisory board at the Caspian Policy Center, and a longtime journalist and correspondent covering Central Asia. For a decade, he appeared regularly on the Majlis podcast for RFE/RL, and now broadcasts his Spotlight on Central Asia podcast in partnership with The Times of Central Asia.

Articles

Cost of Living

High Praise, Empty Pockets: Turkmenistan May Scrap Benefit Hikes

It seems that average Turkmen citizens will again have to find ways to ration their spending in 2026, and beyond, thanks to a proposal from a member of the country’s Council of Elders. At a session of the Halk Maslahaty (People’s Council) on September 19, Elders’ Council member Yazmyrat Atamyradov, who, in fairness, probably drew the short straw before the session started, said that socio-economic conditions in Turkmenistan have reached such a high level that there is no longer a need for cost-of-living increases for salaries, pensions, stipends, and other benefits. "You are bestowing such blessings upon our people, Hero Arkadag!” Atamyradov said in his address. “Our sons and daughters, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren go to school and work without a care in the world. A peaceful, carefree life itself is a priceless treasure and a great asset.” Most of Turkmenistan’s people likely would not agree with Atamyradov’s suggestion, but his words were meant for only one person, Halk Maslahaty Chairman Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, who was in attendance and thanked Atamyradov for the recommendation. Most of the effusive praise for Turkmenistan’s alleged astounding socio-economic achievements was also directed at Berdimuhamedov, who served as Turkmenistan’s president from late 2006 until March 2022, when he stepped down and his son Serdar took the helm. Changes to Turkmenistan’s constitution in early 2023 made the Halk Maslahaty chairman the highest post in the country. A Deteriorating Economy There is no basis for Atamyratov’s assertion that living conditions are improving in Turkmenistan. The suggestion to cut annual payment increases more likely means the authorities can no longer afford to continue funding cost-of-living increases. Turkmenistan has the fourth largest reserves of natural gas in the world, and in the early years after independence, in late 1991, then-President Saparmurat Niyazov forecast the country would soon become a second Kuwait and everyone would be driving Mercedes. It has not worked out like that at all. Turkmenistan has a lot of gas, but only a few customers. The steep drop in gas prices in 2015 devastated Turkmenistan’s economy, which is about 80% dependent on revenue from gas sales, and has never recovered. The first food shortages independent Turkmenistan had ever seen started in 2016. Flour, cooking oil, sugar, eggs, and other basic goods were often not available at state stores where goods are sold at a subsidized price, but have always been available at privately-owned stores and at bazaars, where the price is two or three times more expensive. Eventually, rationing was introduced on bread. Customers were limited to two and sometimes only one churek (flat, round bread) per person. In some areas, police were tasked with monitoring sales to ensure no one bought more than their allotment. Often, there were more customers than bread, and in many places, including the capital, Ashgabat, lines started forming outside state stores before the sun came up. The authorities responded by telling people to line up behind the store so they could not be seen from the street. Fast forward to 2025, where in...

3 months ago

Kyrgyzstan Elections

Kyrgyz Parliament Votes to Dissolve; Preparations for Early Elections Begin

Deputies in Kyrgyzstan’s parliament voted on September 25 to dissolve parliament, paving the way for early elections that will be conducted under a revised electoral format later this year. Deputies voted 84-0 in favor of dissolving parliament. Five other deputies abstained from voting, and one MP was absent from the session. Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov now has five days to name the date for snap parliamentary elections, though speaker of parliament Nurlanbek Turgunbek uulu said he expects the date will be November 30. The move was expected as a group of deputies started collecting signatures earlier in September to introduce a motion on dissolving parliament. The chairman of Kyrgyzstan’s Central Election Commission (CEC), Tynchtykbek Shaynazarov, said in an interview on September 2 that the CEC is ready to conduct parliamentary elections this year, “if [parliament] takes the decision to dissolve itself.” Shaynazarov explained the reason for advancing elections by one year. “According to the law, and plans, the elections for deputies to the Jogorku Kenesh (Kyrgyzstan’s parliament) will take place in November 2026.” However, Shaynazarov said, “According to the constitutional regulations, the next presidential election is set for January 2027. If we have (parliamentary) elections… in November 2026, the CEC must release an official tally (of votes) within 20 days.” Shaynazarov continued, “Then there will be those who are dissatisfied with the elections and will file a lawsuit. Thus, the campaign for the election of deputies may drag on until December.” Shaynazarov pointed out this would overlap with campaigning for the presidential election. Member of Parliament Janar Akayev agreed the proximity of the two elections according to the current schedule could negatively impact the work of the CEC. Akayev also noted that Japarov signed a new law on procedures for electing parliamentary deputies in June this year. That law changed the mixed system of electing deputies Kyrgyzstan used in 2021, whereby 36 MPs were elected in single-mandate districts and 54 by party lists. In the next elections, all 90 deputies will be chosen in single-mandate districts. “Since current MPs support the transition to a new system, new elections should be held,” Akayev said. Kyrgyzstan’s early parliamentary elections, in 1995, 2000, and 2005, were conducted via single-mandate districts. Election by party lists was first used in the 2007 snap elections, and continued to be used in the 2010, 2015, and 2020 elections. The new regulations for parliamentary elections have negative and positive aspects. The non-refundable fee to seek a seat in parliament favors the wealthy. The fee for independent candidates to run remains at 100,000 Kyrgyz som (about $1,115), which is still a high price in a country where the average monthly salary is just a bit over 41,000 som. Political parties can still participate in elections but must pay 9 million som (almost $103,000). Currently six parties have seats in parliament, but 21 parties fielded candidates in the 2021 elections. The prohibitively high cost of registering will make it difficult for many people who aspire to a seat in parliament...

3 months ago

Women's rights

Montenegro Will Not Extradite NeMolchi Founder to Kazakhstan

The authorities in Montenegro have decided that the director of Kazakhstan’s NeMolchi.kz (Don’t be silent) foundation, Dina Smailova (Tansari), will not be deported to Kazakhstan, where she faces charges of knowingly disseminating false information, violation of privacy, and fraud. Smailova’s Legal Battles and Exile Since 2017, Smailova has faced a plethora of criminal cases. In 2021, she left Kazakhstan and relocated to Georgia. After she departed, Almaty police launched new inquiries against her. In June 2022, Smailova said that these investigations were opened “because I criticize the activities of the Almaty police, because I demand the resignation of the leadership, because I do not recognize the police who torture our people in their dungeons!” In early 2024, Smailova left Georgia and requested asylum in the European Union, and in April of that year, she was detained in Montenegro based on an Interpol warrant from Kazakhstan’s Interior Ministry. Kazakhstan and Montenegro do not have an extradition agreement, so Montenegrin officials needed time to consider the Kazakh authorities’ request to repatriate Smailova to Kazakhstan. Smailova was therefore quickly freed from custody but remained in Montenegro, and in July, she and her husband, Almat Mukhamedzhanov, were granted international protection status in the country, signaling that she was unlikely to be extradited. On September 4, Montenegro’s Supreme Court ruled to deny Kazakhstan’s request for her extradition, and on September 12, Smailova wrote on Facebook that the decision had come into force. NeMolchi.kz is an organization that defends the rights of women and children in Kazakhstan and reports on incidents of domestic violence, a problem that has become more visible in the country in recent years. Violence against women has become a priority issue for the Kazakh government, especially since the high-profile murder of a young woman named Saltanat Nukenova in 2023. The Nukenova Case and Public Outcry Saltanat Nukenova was killed in an Astana restaurant by her husband, Kuandyk Bishimbayev, a former Kazakh Minister of National Economy. Bishimbayev was convicted of taking bribes and, in March 2018, was sentenced to ten years in prison. His term was later reduced to four years, and he was eventually released early in December 2020. On November 9, 2023, Bishimbayev and Nukenova went to an Astana restaurant where they had a private room reserved. Bishimbayev and Nukenova quarreled, following which Bishimbayev severely beat his wife, then waited several hours while she lay dying from head injuries he inflicted on her before calling for medical help. Later that same month, it was reported that the police in East Kazakhstan Province had started investigating Smailova for fraud. Police questioned “hundreds” of people who had donated to NeMolchi.kz, on the suspicion that Smailova had used some of the donated money for personal purchases. Before the end of 2023, formal charges were lodged against Smailova, and Kazakhstan put out an international warrant for her arrest. Bishimbayev’s trial was televised and drew a huge audience in Kazakhstan. He was found guilty and sentenced to 24 years in prison. The details of the beating of...

3 months ago

Tajik-Afghan Border

Gold and Gunfire: Tajik-Taliban Tensions Flare on the Border

Tajik border guards and Taliban fighters have exchanged fire in an area along the Tajik-Afghan border. The incident happened on August 24 and is connected to a Chinese gold mining operation on the Afghan side of the border. The hostilities ended after a rare meeting between local Tajik and Taliban officials, though each side accused the other of harboring enemies. Gold Mining The Tajik authorities have been watching Afghanistan’s Dovang district in Afghanistan’s Badakhshan Province since the start of a gold mining operation there three years ago. Residents of Tajikistan’s Shamsiddin Shohin district, across the Pyanj River from Dovang, reported rising water levels in their area. Sodikjon Rahmonzoda, the head of the district branch of Tajikistan’s Ministry for Emergency Situations, stated that “On the opposite bank of the river, in Afghanistan, industrial gold mining started…. They built infrastructure (including) dams that direct water to our bank.” The Tajik authorities have been reinforcing the bank on the Tajik side of the river to prevent nearby villages from flooding. It is unclear if the two sides were previously in contact about the problems the diversion of water in the river was causing in Tajikistan. The other four Central Asian governments have all established a dialogue with the Taliban since they returned to power in August 2021. Kazakh, Kyrgyz, Turkmen, and Uzbek officials have visited Afghanistan, and Taliban representatives have visited Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan (but so far, not Kyrgyzstan). The Tajik government has kept its contact with the Afghan militant group to a minimum, though several border crossing points are working again, and some bazaars on the Tajik side of the frontier have reopened to Afghan customers. Rising Tensions In May, Tajik authorities detained a group of Chinese and Afghans who drove across the river on excavators from the mining site in Dovang into Tajikistan. According to the Tajik authorities, the Chinese and Afghans were seeking to launder money in Tajikistan. On August 24, a group of Taliban arrived at the border area in Dovang. It is not clear what sparked the shooting, but Tajik border guards and Taliban fighters exchanged fire using heavy weapons. One Taliban fighter was reportedly killed, and four others were wounded. There were no reports of casualties among the Tajik border guards. Neither the Tajik government nor Taliban officials have commented on the clash. A Rare Meeting Following the shooting, the commander of the Tajik border guard unit in the Shamsiddin Shohin district led a group of soldiers across the border to Dovang to meet with the head of mining operations and other officials in Badakhshan Province. The two sides discussed the gold mining operation on the Afghan side of the border, but the conversation degenerated into accusations, with each side complaining that the other was sheltering and training their enemies. Both sides are correct. The Tajik government allows members of the National Resistance Front (NRF), including its leader Ahmad Masoud, to travel to and often stay in Tajikistan. The NRF is a group of mainly ethnic...

4 months ago

Transport and Logistics

Rails Through the Mountains: Kyrgyzstan Expanding Network in All Directions

On August 25, in the remote village of Kosh-Dobo in central Kyrgyzstan, construction finally started on Kyrgyzstan’s section of a railway that will connect the country to China and Uzbekistan. It is one of the most important projects in Kyrgyzstan’s 34 years of independence. And it is not the only railway project in Kyrgyzstan, as the country is at last moving to better connect by rail, both internally and with its neighbors. Three Dormant Decades For the first 30 years of independence, no new railway tracks were laid in Kyrgyzstan, but that is now changing. Kyrgyzstan is about 90% mountainous. When Kyrgyzstan became independent in late 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union, there were two railways leading into Kyrgyzstan. Both came from Uzbekistan to the west. A northern line connected Uzbekistan’s capital, Tashkent, through southern Kazakhstan to Kyrgyzstan’s capital, Bishkek, and from there continued eastward to Issyk-Kul, a large lake and tourist area in the northeastern corner of the country. The other railway extended only a few dozen kilometers from the Uzbek border to Osh in southern Kyrgyzstan. The length of the two railways combined amounted to some 320 kilometers. Work started on the 186-kilometer Balykchy-Kochkor-Kara-Keche railway at the end of March 2022. Balykchy is located at the western tip of Issyk-Kul. Since Soviet times, it has been the last stop on the train that originates in Uzbekistan and travels through Bishkek. Kochkor is a village in Naryn Province, about 63 kilometers southwest of Balykchy. Some 120 kilometers further to the southwest is Kara-Keche, one of Kyrgyzstan’s primary coal-mining sites and the source of much of the coal used in the thermal power plant that supplies heat and electricity to Bishkek. Chairman of Kyrgyzstan’s Cabinet of Ministers Adylbek Ksaymaliyev said in May 2025 that there are already plans to connect this railway line to the China-Kyrgyzstan-China line being built through southern Naryn Province. The Eurasian Development Bank recently agreed to fund a feasibility study for extending the railway from Balykchy to the town of Cholpon-Ata, the main tourist town on the north shore of Issyk-Kul, with a stop at the Issyk-Kul airport at Tamchy. As it stands now, people headed to Cholpon-Ata by rail must switch from the train to car or bus at Balykchy to travel the remaining 80 kilometers to Cholpon-Ata. In May 2024, President Sadyr Japarov called for that railway line to eventually reach the town of Karakol, at the eastern end of Issyk-Kul, some 140 kilometers from Cholpon-Ata. Naryn is the biggest province in Kyrgyzstan in terms of territory, but its connections to the rest of the country are tenuous, particularly in the northeastern part of the province where Kochkor and Kara-Keche are located. Kosh-Dobo is in the southern part of Naryn Province, near the borders of the Jalal-Abad and Osh provinces. The village is located on the route of the long-awaited China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway that will run from Kashgar in China’s Xinjiang region to Andijan, Uzbekistan. The project was first proposed some 30...

4 months ago