• KZT/USD = 0.00224
  • TJS/USD = 0.10820
  • UZS/USD = 0.00009
  • TMT/USD = 0.29760
  • KZT/USD = 0.00224
  • TJS/USD = 0.10820
  • UZS/USD = 0.00009
  • TMT/USD = 0.29760
  • KZT/USD = 0.00224
  • TJS/USD = 0.10820
  • UZS/USD = 0.00009
  • TMT/USD = 0.29760
  • KZT/USD = 0.00224
  • TJS/USD = 0.10820
  • UZS/USD = 0.00009
  • TMT/USD = 0.29760
  • KZT/USD = 0.00224
  • TJS/USD = 0.10820
  • UZS/USD = 0.00009
  • TMT/USD = 0.29760
  • KZT/USD = 0.00224
  • TJS/USD = 0.10820
  • UZS/USD = 0.00009
  • TMT/USD = 0.29760
  • KZT/USD = 0.00224
  • TJS/USD = 0.10820
  • UZS/USD = 0.00009
  • TMT/USD = 0.29760
  • KZT/USD = 0.00224
  • TJS/USD = 0.10820
  • UZS/USD = 0.00009
  • TMT/USD = 0.29760
16 September 2026

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How Almaty and Astana Built Central Asia’s Deepest Business Ecosystem

Every region has cities that pull people and money toward them. New York, London, Dubai, and Singapore became places where ambitious people went to make careers, companies went to find talent, and investors went to put money to work. Once that concentration takes hold, it feeds on itself. More companies create more jobs, more talent attracts more companies, and banks, lawyers, consultants, airlines, schools and restaurants grow around them. Central Asia has developed its own version of that gravitational pull. Almaty has long been the region’s main commercial center and was Kazakhstan’s capital until 1997. It remains effectively tethered to Astana by intense passenger traffic and the constant movement of businesspeople, officials and professionals between the two cities. Astana has grown around government, international finance, technology and diplomacy. Together, they function as a two-city economic and political engine. The numbers explain much of this. The Times of Central Asia’s Central Asia Balance Sheet puts Kazakhstan at $306.2 billion of the five Central Asian economies combined $543.4 billion in GDP, or 56.4%. Its share of accumulated foreign investment is even larger. The Balance Sheet puts Central Asia’s inward foreign direct investment (FDI) stock at $235.6 billion at the end of 2025, of which Kazakhstan held $156.4 billion, or 66.4%. FDI stock represents capital accumulated over years rather than announced agreements or one unusually strong year of inflows. Almaty and Astana Play Different Roles Almaty accounted for 22.7% of Kazakhstan’s GDP in 2025 and Astana another 12.3%, putting their economies at roughly $69 billion and $38 billion respectively. Together they produced around $107 billion. Almaty is Kazakhstan’s main business and financial center. Kazakhstan’s largest banks, investment firms, multinational offices, lawyers, accountants and consultants are concentrated there. The Globalization and World Cities research network (GaWC) placed Almaty in its Gamma+ group in 2024, alongside Austin, Antwerp, and Kuwait City. GaWC bases the classification on the networks of major international business-service firms, offering a measure of how closely a city is connected to the global corporate economy. Consistent with that ranking, multinational companies have also chosen Almaty as a base for regional operations. Mars runs its eleven-country regional headquarters from Almaty, covering all five Central Asian states, the South Caucasus, Belarus, Mongolia, and Turkey. Mastercard describes Almaty as a regional hub and the heart of its consulting operations for the CIS, Central and Eastern Europe. Kazakhstan is unusual in Central Asia in having two major hubs. In functional terms, Astana complements Almaty much as Washington D.C. complements New York: Almaty is the deeper commercial center, while Astana concentrates government, sovereign institutions, diplomacy, and national policy. Astana has also developed regional corporate operations of its own. Alstom runs its Western and Central Asia cluster from the capital, and Mercuria opened a regional office there in 2026 headed by its CEO for Central Asia and the Caspian region. U.S. rail company Wabtec has made Astana a regional locomotive production and engineering base, reinforced by its $4.2 billion agreement as Kazakhstan expands its Middle Corridor links to...

2 days ago

Kazakhstan’s Elena Rybakina Wins US Open Ahead of World No. 1 Debut

Kazakhstan’s Elena Rybakina has won the US Open women’s singles title, defeating Aryna Sabalenka 6-4, 5-7, 6-2 in New York to claim the third Grand Slam championship of her career. Rybakina entered the final having already secured the world No. 1 ranking following her quarterfinal victory over Zheng Qinwen. She will officially take the top position when the new WTA rankings are published on Monday, becoming the first player representing Kazakhstan to reach No. 1 in singles. The US Open title adds to her Wimbledon championship in 2022 and Australian Open victory earlier this year. She has now won three of the four Grand Slam tournaments. Sabalenka entered the final as world No. 1 and two-time defending US Open champion. The match was also a rematch of this year’s Australian Open final, which Rybakina won. Rybakina has become one of Kazakhstan’s most prominent international athletes. Her run in New York included victories over Naomi Osaka, Zheng and Coco Gauff before the final. Speaking during the tournament, Rybakina said she was “very proud representing Kazakhstan” and noted growing interest in tennis among children in the country. Her success has marked a series of firsts for Kazakhstan. She became the first player representing the country to win a Grand Slam singles title at Wimbledon and is now the first to reach the top of the world rankings.

4 days ago

Space Days Kazakhstan Highlights Push Beyond Baikonur

Kazakhstan is home to Baikonur, the cosmodrome from which the Space Age began, but the country has spent three decades trying to turn that Soviet inheritance into a space sector of its own. At Space Days Kazakhstan, held on September 7–9 in Astana and Baikonur, Kazakhstan presented new satellite projects and plans for international cooperation. A day later, talks with China were announced on a separate five-satellite network for Central Asia. By 2030, Astana plans to assemble an international constellation of nine Earth-observation satellites, six of them Kazakh. The country is also upgrading its national satellite communications system, developing new Earth-observation spacecraft at home, and expanding cooperation with China and other partners. Kazakhstan still relies heavily on Russia at Baikonur, and many of its newer projects depend on foreign technology and cooperation. Nevertheless, Astana is seeking greater control over the infrastructure and spacecraft on its own territory while widening the number of countries it works with. Taking More Control at Baikonur One of the clearest examples of Kazakhstan’s attempt to gain more control over its space sector is Baiterek, a joint project with Russia that dates back to 2004. The original agreement called for a new launch complex at Baikonur. But the project spent much of the next two decades being redesigned as Russia changed the rocket it planned to use. Baiterek was first intended for the Angara rocket, then Zenit, and finally Soyuz-5, known in Kazakhstan as Sunkar. Each change brought further delays. After launch targets in 2023, 2024, and 2025 slipped, Soyuz-5 finally lifted off from Baikonur on April 30, 2026. The rocket carried a dummy payload on the first flight in the test program. The launch mattered less for what it carried than for what it represented. Kazakhstan now operates the launch pad and ground infrastructure used by Baiterek, giving it a larger role at a cosmodrome long dominated by Russia. But Russia still builds the rocket. That reflects the wider relationship at Baikonur. The cosmodrome remained on Kazakh territory after the collapse of the Soviet Union, but Russia leases it through 2050 for $115 million a year and continues to use it for its human spaceflight program. In July 2026, Baikonur was again used for an international mission to the ISS. Kazakhstan is therefore not replacing Russia at Baikonur. It is trying to take a larger role in a space complex where Russia remains deeply embedded. But launch infrastructure is only one part of Kazakhstan’s attempt to develop capabilities of its own. Increasingly, the focus is on satellites. Building Satellites at Home KazSat is the country’s national satellite communications and broadcasting system. KazSat-3 currently provides data transmission, television, and other communications services. Its planned operating life ends in late 2029. KazSat-3R is being developed as its replacement. The national operator, the Republican Center for Space Communication, invited more than 40 spacecraft manufacturers to participate in the selection process. Fourteen companies responded: two from Kazakhstan and twelve from abroad. The operator plans to cover more than half...

5 days ago

New OECD Assessment Reveals Central Asia’s Student Performance

International student assessments help governments identify where students are succeeding, where they are falling behind and how learning outcomes are changing over time. The Programme for International Student Assessment, or PISA, tests how well 15-year-olds can apply what they have learned in science, mathematics and reading to real-world problems. Run by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the assessment is intended to identify weaknesses and track whether learning improves over time. The results released on September 8 show improvement in some areas, declines in others and significant gaps in the regional data. PISA 2025 placed particular emphasis on science and introduced a new assessment of computational problem-solving, part of its broader work on learning in the digital world. What the Results Show Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan participated nationally. Tajikistan was represented by Dushanbe rather than a national sample, while Turkmenistan did not participate. Participant Science Math Reading Comp. ProblemSolving Kazakhstan 420 414 385 449 Kyrgyzstan 363 364 344 388 Dushanbe, TJK 334 382 368 — Uzbekistan 438 N/A N/A 402 OECD average 482 463 461 500 Kazakhstan recorded the highest published regional scores in mathematics, reading and computational problem-solving, while Uzbekistan recorded the highest score in science. Uzbekistan’s mathematics and reading results were not published, preventing a complete comparison across the three core subjects. Central Asia remained below OECD averages, but Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan scored higher than several EU member states in some subjects. Across OECD countries, average mathematics and reading performance fell to the lowest levels yet recorded by PISA. Science was comparatively stable. What Changed The latest scores and the longer-term trends do not always point in the same direction. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan both participated in PISA in 2022, while Kyrgyzstan’s previous participation was in 2009. Country ComparisonPeriod Science Math Reading Kazakhstan 2022–2025 −4 −12 −1 Kyrgyzstan 2009–2025 +33 +33 +30 Uzbekistan 2022–2025 +83 N/A N/A Kazakhstan’s mathematics score fell by about 12 points from 2022, a statistically significant decline for the country. Its smaller declines in science and reading were not statistically significant. Kyrgyzstan improved in mathematics, reading and science compared with its previous participation. The gains cover 16 years rather than a single PISA cycle. Uzbekistan recorded the largest movement in the regional results. Its science score rose from 355 in 2022 to 438 in 2025, an increase of 83 points. That was also the largest science gain among education systems with comparable results worldwide and more than twice the next-largest increase of 38 points. What Other Assessments Show Other international assessments help put the larger changes in context. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan were the only Central Asian countries to participate in the 2023 Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study, or TIMSS. The assessment tests younger students and uses a different methodology from PISA. Among eighth-graders, Kazakhstan scored 443 in science and Uzbekistan 396. Two years later, PISA recorded science scores of 420 for Kazakhstan and 438 for Uzbekistan. The assessments cover different students and testing methods, so the scores cannot be compared directly....

5 days ago

Kazakhstani Director Darkhan Tulegenov: “We Have Long Been Part of the Global Film Industry”

The Cord, the latest feature by Kazakhstani director Darkhan Tulegenov, will have its world premiere in the Vision section of the 31st Busan International Film Festival, held in South Korea from October 6 to 15. Developed from his series Kindik, the film has been described by its creators as a drama about blind maternal love, but further plot details remain under wraps. The Kazakhstani director’s recent television work also includes Mūnai and Khanskaya Okhota. Tulegenov studied acting before moving into directing, making eight short films and earning early recognition on the festival circuit before completing his first feature, Brothers, in 2022. In an interview with The Times of Central Asia, Tulegenov explained why filmmakers from Kazakhstan  now have lessons of their own to share with international colleagues, how his acting education helps him on set, and how a director adapts when nature rewrites the plan, from unexpected snow in Aktau to the icy waters of the Caspian Sea. TCA: Your path into international cinema began while you were still a student. Which festival was your first? Tulegenov: Yes, essentially it all started with short films, which I began making while I was still a student. Before making my debut in full-length feature cinema, I made eight short films and several series. My short films won many awards around the world. My first trip abroad with one of my films was, I think, to Bishkek, to a short film festival, where I won the Grand Prix. That was the beginning. After that, I really traveled a lot thanks to cinema. TCA: One of those trips took you to Iran’s Fajr Film Festival. How did that experience influence you as a filmmaker? Tulegenov: In Iran, I participated in the Talent Campus program. It is similar to Berlinale Talents at the Berlin Film Festival, only at the Fajr Film Festival. They organize it for participants from Arab countries, Central Asia, other parts of Asia, and other regions. Well-known Iranian directors serve as mentors there: Majid Majidi was there, for example, and Asghar Farhadi had come the year before me. For a student, it is an amazing experience because you can attend lectures by masters of Iranian cinema while surrounded by people from all over the world. At some point, you realize that filmmakers everywhere actually speak the same language, and where you studied does not matter at all. You can study cinema in Iran, Kazakhstan, or America. The main thing is to speak the language of real cinema. [caption id="attachment_56009" align="aligncenter" width="1200"] All images courtesy of Darkhan Tulegenov[/caption] TCA: You also studied at the New York Film Academy. How different was that experience from studying in Kazakhstan? Tulegenov: Yes, it was what they called an “academic mobility program” at the Zhurgenov Academy, where I graduated. I don’t know whether it still exists, but at the time they sent us to Los Angeles for three months. The academy paid for our tickets, daily expenses, and other costs. For me, above all, it was an...

5 days ago

Tajikistan Plans to Build Central Asia’s Tallest Building

Construction has begun in Tajikistan on what authorities say will be the tallest building in Central Asia, part of a massive development involving international design and engineering firms that is expected to alter Dushanbe’s skyline. The planned 77-floor Dushanbe Tower will be in a complex in the Shohmansur district of the capital that includes five high-rise towers and office, entertainment, and residential areas, according to Tajikistan’s presidential office. It said more than 2,000 local construction workers will be involved in the Dushanbe Mall project, which is slated for completion within five years. “In general, this will be the tallest structure in the region,” the presidency said. While the official statement used the term “structure,” it’s possible that the Dushanbe Tower would not be taller than several other structures, including telecommunications towers, in the region. However, it would be the tallest conventional building if its height projections are borne out. The presidency said the height of the Dushanbe Tower will be 340 meters. Amir Holding, a Dushanbe-based real estate development group leading the Dushanbe Mall project, notes a height of 359 meters on its website. RMJM, a global network of architects and other professionals that was founded in Scotland, says it is designing the skyscraper and that it will be 400 meters high. Completed in 2022, the 311-meter Abu Dhabi Plaza in Astana, Kazakhstan, is currently the tallest building in Central Asia. TAS International Group, a construction company within Amir Holding, is involved in the project. In a statement, the parent company described the development as “a landmark urban intervention addressing the city's shortage of high-quality residential, commercial, hospitality and retail infrastructure,” but did not disclose the project’s cost. “Positioned within a rapidly growing market, it responds to increasing demand for premium real estate and establishes the foundation for Dushanbe's first central business district,” the developer said. The project includes a lake and extensive green space, according to designers. The Dushanbe Tower will be “immersed” in the park, offering “a new blueprint for sustainable urbanism in Central Asia,” according to RMJM. It said the goal is to make “greenery an integral, authentic part of the urban experience.” Companies from Uzbekistan are also contributing to the Dushanbe Mall project, showing that “Central Asian countries are working together not only in politics and trade, but also on major construction and infrastructure projects,” said MTRK, Uzbekistan’s state broadcaster. The Shohmansur district, where the project is being built, is in the Gissar Valley. Dushanbe is in an earthquake-prone region, and a LinkedIn recruitment post for an engineer on the Dushanbe Tower project says the job involves advanced analysis of seismic loads in what it describes as a “9-ball zone.” Dushanbe already has a shopping center called Dushanbe Mall or City Plaza, which opened in 2016 and is not connected to the new project. President Emomali Rahmon and his son, Dushanbe Mayor Rustam Emomali, laid the foundation stone for the new project on September 3.

6 days ago

Kazakhstan Prepares for China Investment Forum While Pursuing U.S. AI Ties

Kazakhstan will host a major investment forum with China in Almaty on September 25, with artificial intelligence expected to feature prominently among potential new agreements. The meeting comes as Astana deepens technology cooperation with Beijing while remaining part of the U.S.-backed Pax Silica initiative. Tokayev confirmed his participation in the forum in an interview with China’s Xinhua News Agency. “This forum is intended to serve as a platform for launching new concrete economic and investment cooperation projects,” the president said. In the same interview, Tokayev outlined potential cooperation with China in AI and digital technologies, ranging from industry, mining, and energy to transport, healthcare, satellite technology, and data centers. Some projects in these areas are already being discussed with Chinese businesses. During Tokayev’s July visit to Shanghai, Kazakhstan and Chinese companies signed more than 70 commercial agreements with a stated value exceeding $15 billion. They included projects involving Huawei, robotics development, AI in the automotive industry, and the Data Center Valley in Ekibastuz, where a complex with capacity of up to 1 GW is planned. Two International Initiatives in Three Weeks On June 25, Kazakhstan became the first country in Central Asia to join Pax Silica, a U.S.-backed initiative aimed at developing trusted supply chains for the AI economy. It covers areas including semiconductors, critical minerals, computing infrastructure, energy, and advanced manufacturing. Kazakhstan also signed a joint statement with the United States on an AI Opportunity Partnership. On July 16, Kazakhstan joined 28 other countries in Shanghai in signing an agreement to establish the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (WAICO). The organization, headquartered in Shanghai, says its goals include expanding international cooperation and developing approaches to global AI governance. Its other founding participants include Brazil, China, Indonesia, Russia, and the four other Central Asian states: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Beijing is promoting wider access to AI technologies and open models, workforce development, and greater participation by developing countries in setting international rules. China is also seeking to reduce its technology sector’s dependence on U.S. components. Kazakhstan, meanwhile, has remained part of Pax Silica. Washington Raises the Question of Choosing Sides On August 14, Reuters reported that the U.S. State Department had drafted a letter for countries partnering with Washington on AI. Countries participating in both Pax Silica and the China-backed initiative could be asked to choose between the two frameworks. A U.S. official told Reuters that Washington wanted a clearer separation between the American and Chinese technology ecosystems. The report specifically identified Kazakhstan as a participant in both initiatives and said its dual participation had raised concerns in Washington. At the time, the document remained a draft. There is no public evidence that Kazakhstan has received such a demand or that Washington has formally required Astana to choose between the two initiatives. Several weeks later, Tokayev argued in his Xinhua interview against dividing technology along geopolitical lines. “AI should not become the privilege of a narrow circle of the most technologically advanced states, much less turn into a new...

6 days ago

Middle Corridor Freight Grows, but Eastbound Cargo Lags

Container traffic is growing along the Middle Corridor from China and Central Asia toward Europe, but the route is far less busy in the opposite direction. In the first eight months of 2026, about 80% of container traffic moved westward and only 20% eastward. Operators are now looking for goods in Europe and Türkiye that can be shipped back across the Caspian Sea and Kazakhstan toward Central Asia and China. Container traffic totaled 53,574 TEU along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, also known as the Middle Corridor, in January–August. One TEU is equivalent to a standard 20-foot container. During the same period last year, the figure was 48,326 TEU, meaning traffic increased by 11%. But the flows were highly uneven. According to ADY Express, 42,642 TEU moved from east to west, compared with just 10,932 TEU in the opposite direction – a ratio of almost four to one. Interest in the route increased sharply after 2022, when companies began looking for additional ways to move goods between China and Europe without transiting Russia. Over the past several years, participants in the Middle Corridor have focused on increasing shipments from China. New train services have been introduced, while countries along the route have invested in railways, terminals, and Caspian ports. Chinese freight has grown, but there is still not enough cargo for the return journey. For transport operators, the issue comes down to finances. Once containers reach Europe, they need to be used again or repositioned. If there is cargo for the return journey, the equipment generates revenue in both directions. Without it, operators can face the cost of moving empty equipment. The 80%-to-20% split, however, does not establish how many containers actually make the return journey without cargo. Railway companies themselves are now acknowledging the shortage of eastbound cargo. “For this, backhaul freight is necessary,” Emil Mammadov, Adviser to the Chairman of Azerbaijan Railways, said at the Black Sea and Caspian Freight Forum 2026 in Baku. According to Mammadov, attracting cargo from Europe would help increase freight volumes, optimize transportation costs, and allow at least some containers to be returned to their countries of origin. Until now, the route has been promoted more actively in China, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Türkiye. European companies have received less attention. Railway operators are now looking for customers at the western end of the corridor as well. A shipment from Türkiye showed what such a return journey could look like. In May, KTZ Express and Pasifik Eurasia dispatched a train from Izmir to China carrying household refrigerators. Fifty 40-foot containers crossed the Caspian Sea, traveled through Kazakhstan, and continued into China via the Altynkol border station. For now, such shipments remain limited. The Chinese side continues to push for more westbound traffic. On September 9, Azerbaijan Railways held talks with Shanghai International Port Group and Lianyungang Port on expanding shipments of Chinese goods through Kazakhstan, across the Caspian, and through Azerbaijan toward Europe. ADY Express also reported that 265 container block trains operated along...

6 days ago

Uzbekistan Tests HUMO Stablecoin for Everyday Payments

Uzbekistan has begun its first experiment using a privately issued stablecoin called HUMO to pay for everyday goods and services. A stablecoin is a digital token designed to keep a fixed value, rather than rise and fall sharply like Bitcoin. One HUMO will be pegged to one Uzbek soum, with the tokens backed by government securities. The name may cause some confusion because HUMO is also the name of an Uzbek payment system. The token is not a bank card or a central bank digital currency and is separate from that payment system. HUMO Digital, a private company, is listed by the National Agency for Perspective Projects (NAPP) as the stablecoin’s issuer. The project is being conducted under the joint supervision of the Central Bank and NAPP. Until now, crypto assets could not legally be used to pay directly for goods and services in Uzbekistan. The Central Bank and NAPP have decided to test an exception under a special regulatory regime. On September 2, HUMO Digital was registered to take part in the experiment. The project will test the issuance, circulation, and redemption of HUMO, as well as its use to pay for goods and services. More than 20 companies are prepared to accept the tokens during the pilot. Asterium, which is licensed as a crypto exchange, crypto depository, and crypto shop, is also participating in the project. Each HUMO issued is to be backed by Uzbek government securities. In practice, that means HUMO Digital will hold government debt as collateral behind the tokens it issues. The Central Bank will monitor whether there are enough assets backing the tokens and whether those assets are safely held. It will also assess whether payments and consumers are adequately protected, along with any effects that wider use of HUMO could have on inflation, monetary policy, and financial stability. The experiment is initially planned for 12 months. It can be extended, although the project cannot last more than three years in total. The results will help regulators decide how such digital financial instruments should be regulated in the future. The choice of the soum sets the Uzbek project apart from most of the global stablecoin market. Neighboring Kazakhstan is also exploring a potential stablecoin, although its proposed structure has not been disclosed. Nearly all major stablecoins are pegged to the U.S. dollar. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), approximately 98% of stablecoin value is denominated in dollars. The best-known examples are Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC). In effect, they allow users to hold and transfer something closely tied to the value of the dollar at any time and across borders. For countries with their own currencies, that convenience can create a problem. If people increasingly save or pay in dollar-backed tokens instead of the local currency, the local currency can lose ground. The BIS warns that widespread stablecoin adoption in emerging economies could accelerate what it calls digital dollarization and make it harder for central banks to manage their economies. Tashkent...

6 days ago

Kazakhstan Seeks Oil Export Alternatives After Latest CPC Disruption

A drone incident near the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal outside Novorossiysk briefly halted oil loading on September 8, again highlighting Kazakhstan’s dependence on its main export route through Russia. Astana is seeking to expand alternatives, but the difference in volumes remains enormous. According to Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry, the country exported 64.8 million tons of oil through CPC in 2025. The ministry puts shipments via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline at 1.2 million tons annually. Azerbaijan has said it is ready to receive up to 2.2 million tons of Kazakh oil through BTC annually, although KazMunayGas expects shipments of up to 1.6 million tons in 2026. Even this higher figure would be only around 3% of the volume Kazakhstan exported through CPC last year. The Caspian route allows oil from Kazakhstan to bypass Russian territory entirely. Crude is shipped to the port of Aktau, carried by tanker across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan, and then transported through the BTC pipeline via Georgia to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. However, the logistics are more complicated than direct pipeline transportation. A substantial increase in exports could require additional tanker capacity and improvements to transport infrastructure on both sides of the Caspian. Kazakhstan also exports oil eastward to China. Another alternative is the Atyrau-Samara pipeline, although it feeds crude into Russia’s pipeline system and does not reduce reliance on Russian transit. The latest incident temporarily stopped loading at two single-point moorings, the offshore facilities used to load crude onto tankers. Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry said inspections of the equipment and vessels found no issues affecting continued loading. It reported no environmental impact. Loading resumed, and CPC imposed no restrictions on accepting crude from Kazakh shippers. CPC operations had already been interrupted several times in 2026 following attacks in the terminal area. The disruptions have added up. Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov estimated that incidents affecting CPC in January and July had caused about 3.5 million tons of lost production. He said Kazakhstan would have to lower its 2026 oil production forecast from 98 million tons to around 96 million tons. The problem for Astana is the scale of its dependence. CPC connects Kazakhstan’s largest oilfields to the Black Sea and accounted for approximately 82% of the country’s 78.7 million tons of oil exports in 2025. Even doubling or tripling shipments across the Caspian would leave CPC dominant. Kazakhstan can gradually spread its exports across several routes, but the alternatives cannot currently replace its main export channel. For more on our special coverage, click here.

6 days ago