• KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00205 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10771 -0.19%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28571 0.28%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00205 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10771 -0.19%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28571 0.28%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00205 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10771 -0.19%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28571 0.28%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00205 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10771 -0.19%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28571 0.28%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00205 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10771 -0.19%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28571 0.28%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00205 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10771 -0.19%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28571 0.28%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00205 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10771 -0.19%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28571 0.28%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00205 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10771 -0.19%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28571 0.28%

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Kyrgyzstan’s Armed Forces Double in Size Amid Rising Defense Spending

Kyrgyzstan’s armed forces have roughly doubled in size since 2018 amid a sharp increase in defense spending, military rearmament, and improved social benefits for service personnel, according to General Staff chief Tariel Otonbaev. On May 29, Kyrgyzstan marked the 34th anniversary of the establishment of its national armed forces. Speaking at the anniversary event, Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Adylbek Kasymaliev said the development of the country’s modern military had been shaped by the armed incursions in the Batken region in 1999-2000 and the border conflict with Tajikistan in 2022. In an interview with The Times of Central Asia, Otonbaev said today’s military differs significantly from the force that existed five or ten years ago. “Over the past five years, military funding has increased by 300%. Today, approximately 2% of the country’s GDP is allocated to defense. Most importantly, interest among young people in military service has grown,” he said. According to Otonbaev, some military units faced shortages of contract personnel of between 30% and 40% just a few years ago. Today, staffing levels among contract soldiers exceed 95%. Otonbaev also highlighted improvements in living conditions for military personnel. More than 900 service members are expected to receive housing this year, while others receive monthly government compensation for rental costs ranging from $170 to $205. Food standards have also improved, he said. The daily caloric intake provided to service members has increased from 1,800 to 4,800 calories, while the range of food products available has been expanded. “The state has begun fulfilling its social obligations. Arms procurement has become systematic, and today the military is fully supplied with the equipment and weapons it needs,” Otonbaev said. According to General Staff data, Kyrgyzstan’s armed forces now number approximately 23,000 personnel, compared with about 11,000 in 2018. In addition, roughly 300,000 citizens are registered as reservists. The country’s military budget has reached $654 million. Otonbaev said the armed forces are closely studying lessons from modern conflicts and adapting training programs to new forms of warfare. Specialized units within the military analyze emerging trends and oversee their incorporation into force development and training. Particular attention is being paid to unmanned systems. According to Otonbaev, modern warfare has been transformed by the widespread use of drones and artificial intelligence technologies. Kyrgyzstan acquired its first combat drones in late 2021, purchasing Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 unmanned aerial vehicles. Since then, the country has purchased additional unmanned systems from other suppliers and has begun developing its own fixed-wing and rotary-wing military drones. The first domestically produced models were showcased during the Rubezh-2025 military exercises held by the Collective Security Treaty Organization, marking another step in the development of Kyrgyzstan’s domestic defense industry. The rapid expansion of the armed forces is part of Bishkek’s effort to build national defense capabilities following recent regional security challenges and adapt its military doctrine to the changing nature of modern warfare.

2 weeks ago

Kazakhstan’s Middle Power Moment: From Balancer to Regional Organizer

In “What Is the Status of Middle Powers?”, Michel Duclos of the Institut Montaigne presents Kazakhstan as a test case for whether middle powers can still influence outcomes in an era of intensifying great power rivalry. Writing after the Regional Ecological Summit in Astana, which brought together nine heads of state around President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Duclos notes that Kazakhstan “plays a leadership role” among states navigating pressures between China and Russia. He also argues that Tokayev, drawing on his experience as a former senior UN official, is seeking to elevate Kazakhstan into an intermediate power on multilateral issues. That is a useful lens for understanding Tokayev’s foreign policy. Rather than treating Kazakhstan’s position between larger powers as a liability, he has sought to turn geography, energy resources, logistics, diplomatic reliability, and convening power into regional agency. The result is an emerging model of middle power leadership rooted not in confrontation, but in coordination, credibility, and practical cooperation. That assessment places Tokayev’s foreign policy in a broader category than traditional balancing. Kazakhstan’s importance does not rest only on its raw assets — uranium, oil, minerals, logistics, or its position along Central Asian land routes. It also rests on how Astana uses those assets: as a convening state, a reliable partner, and a practical organizer of regional cooperation. Under Tokayev, multi-vector diplomacy has become less a defensive posture than an operating strategy, aimed at keeping Kazakhstan open to multiple partners while building platforms others have reason to use. In that sense, Kazakhstan is being presented not simply as a state located between great powers, but as one increasingly able to give structure to the space between them. Moving from “balancer” to “regional organizer” is only possible if Kazakhstan turns geography, resources, and diplomacy into practical systems others have reason to use. The clearest operational evidence of this shift is transport. Kazakhstan’s geography has often been described as a constraint. It is landlocked, vast, and positioned between larger powers. But the growth of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, or Middle Corridor, allows Astana to recast that geography as a strategic advantage. In the first quarter of 2026, 125 container trains transited Kazakhstan via the Middle Corridor, a 34.4% increase from the same period in 2025. The Times of Central Asia also reported that freight volumes along the route through Kazakhstan have grown more than fivefold over seven years, from 0.8 million tons to 4.5 million tons annually. These figures show that Kazakhstan is not simply selling potential; it is building operational value into the corridor. This is where the idea of Kazakhstan as a regional organizer becomes concrete. A balancing state tries to avoid overdependence on any single power. An organizing state builds systems that others have a reason to use. If Kazakhstan can make the Middle Corridor faster, more predictable, more digitalized, and more commercially reliable, it is not merely balancing Russia, China, Europe, Türkiye, and the South Caucasus. It is creating connective tissue between them. World Bank analysis suggests that infrastructure...

2 weeks ago

Turkmenistan Showcases Textile Industry as Labor Concerns Linger

Textile executives from Asia and Europe will gather this week at an event in Turkmenistan, which says it is aligning its textile industry with international standards despite continuing concerns about labor conditions during the annual cotton harvest. More than 30 Turkmen firms are registered to participate in the TurkmenTextile Expo in Ashgabat on June 4-6, according to event organizers. More than 40 companies from China, Turkey, and Italy are also listed as Turkmenistan seeks to upgrade an industry that is critical to the national economy. Discussion topics include brand strategies, the new textile technology for deriving fibers from algae, and the role of traditional textiles in contemporary art and fashion in Central Asia. There will be a fashion show and a presentation about the Eurasian Council for Craft & Design, a platform that was launched this year to promote regional designers and artisans. Katharina Schaus, the German founder of a consultancy called it fits – Organic Textile Partner, will speak about international trends in sustainable cotton production and textile certification. Another speaker, Carola Deiners, will address “responsible sourcing and the expectations of international buyers.” There have long been international concerns and calls for boycotts because of the reported mobilization of public employees and the use of forced labor, including children, in the annual cotton harvest in Turkmenistan. While the government has promised to improve working conditions and has collaborated with international inspectors, critics point to periodic state denials of the problem and an alleged gap between labor rules and their implementation. This year, the International Labour Organization, or ILO, said in a report on the 2025 harvest in Turkmenistan that there had been some progress on working conditions, particularly remuneration, but that some contractual protections and safety and health measures were still lacking. The report said there was still public employee involvement in the harvest and reported recruitment through workplace or administrative channels, as well as the perception of negative consequences for refusal to work in cotton. There was “a clear increase in children’s presence in cotton fields compared to 2024, despite strengthened legal prohibitions,” according to the report. Turkmenistan, meanwhile, has said it is increasing investment in spinning, weaving, knitwear, sewing production, and other aspects of its textile industry. Part of that effort has included the introduction of new production technologies from top textile companies in Japan and Europe. While there is a strong focus on exports, Turkmenistan’s Ministry of Textile Industry launched an online store called Dokma as part of a plan to digitalize the domestic economy. Through Dokma, state media reported last year, “customers can order hundreds of types of textile and leather footwear products — from enterprises within the ministry’s system as well as from private producers.”

2 weeks ago

Love Takes Center Stage at TEDxMarvila in Lisbon

Pátio da Galé, one of Lisbon’s most iconic public spaces, became a gathering place for ideas, art, and cultural exchange on Saturday as TEDxMarvila held its latest edition under the theme “What is Love.” Held in the heart of the Portuguese capital, the event drew an international audience for a full day of talks exploring love as emotion, language, identity, and shared human experience. Anel Imanbay, who is originally from Kazakhstan, founded and organized the event. She has built TEDxMarvila as a Lisbon-based platform that brings together people of different nationalities and creative backgrounds. This year’s edition extended beyond the stage, featuring an art exhibition titled “Love at First Sight,” which brought together artists from around the world. Among the participating artists was acclaimed Kazakhstani artist Eduard Kazaryan, who exhibited three works as part of the program. Kazakhstan was also represented diplomatically at the event. Jean Galiev, Kazakhstan’s ambassador to Portugal, attended as an honorary guest, adding to the gathering’s international character and its connections with the Kazakhstani community abroad. The event created an atmosphere of openness and exchange. Guiomar de Oliveira, one of the attendees, said the event showed how differently people can express the same universal emotion. “It was interesting to hear how different people translated love as emotion with words,” she said. “I met people from all over the world. Love is international, and I loved meeting all those translators of emotions.” Behind the scenes, organizers said the event reflected the work of a committed international team. Co-organizer Henrique Tiago del Castro praised Imanbay’s leadership in developing the event. “Anel Imanbay is the kind of professional who brings clarity, dedication, and a strong sense of purpose to every project she is part of,” he said. “For TEDxMarvila, her contribution reflects both confidence and thoughtful engagement, helping shape the conversation with relevance and depth.” With its blend of talks, international art, and cross-cultural participation, TEDxMarvila highlighted love as both a personal emotion and a language of connection across communities and borders.

2 weeks ago

Turkmenistan Seeks Bigger Counter-Terrorism Role in Central Asia

Turkmenistan wants to host a United Nations counter-terrorism facility that would contribute to cooperation among Central Asian countries, whose security concerns have included online radicalization, instability in Afghanistan, and the repatriation of citizens from Syria and Iraq. Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov discussed the initiative with Alexandre Zouev, a Russian diplomat who is acting under-secretary-general of the United Nations Office of Counter-Terrorism (UNOCT), during a visit by Turkmenistan’s top diplomat to the United States last week. In the May 28 meeting, the Turkmen delegation provided details about the plan to establish a program office of UNOCT in Ashgabat, according to the ministry. It said the office “will become a key analytical and expert platform in the region.” Such offices in host countries have a minimum of three staff members, for example, the office head, a project manager, and an administrator, and often rely on funding from the host nation, according to UNOCT, which is based at U.N. headquarters in New York.  The offices focus on “capacity-building projects and activities” with a focus on the country or region, the office said. In 2022, U.N. counter-terrorism officials helped to set up what they described as an early warning network with representatives from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The mechanism promotes regional information-sharing. Besides governments, it involves civil society organizations and academics. Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan share borders with Afghanistan, where continuing security problems have slowed Central Asian efforts to develop trade routes in deals with the ruling Taliban movement. Chinese interests in Tajikistan have been targeted by cross-border attacks in the past year. Tajikistan’s security forces have stepped up patrols on the border, which is challenging to monitor because of the remote, mountainous terrain. Several Central Asian countries have also organized the repatriation of their citizens from conflict zones in Iraq and Syria. Former male fighters who joined Islamic militant groups can face close monitoring and jail time, while women and children tend to be viewed as victims in need of humanitarian support. U.N. officials have also collaborated on counter-terrorism concerns in Central Asia with the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a regional group that includes Russia and has focused heavily on the threat of extremist infiltration from Afghanistan.

2 weeks ago

“Don’t Try to Please the West” – Screenwriter Kazybek Orazbek on Kazakh Cinema

Kazybek Orazbek is one of the screenwriters behind a recent shift in Kazakh cinema, as locally produced horror and thriller films have begun to punch above their weight, both at the domestic box-office and internationally. His credits include Dästür, the Kazakh-language horror film that earned more than 1 billion tenge ($2.2 million) in its first week, and Auru, a 2025 drama-thriller released with a 21+ rating in Kazakhstan and screened internationally under the English title Sicko. In an interview with The Times of Central Asia, Orazbek explains why deeply local stories can resonate globally, why Kazakhstan’s film industry needs international markets, and what mistake local filmmakers most often make when trying to appeal to Western audiences. TCA: Sicko, for which you wrote the screenplay, is a genre film aimed at mass audiences, yet it ended up in the International Film Festival Rotterdam program. Was that your goal from the beginning? Orazbek: Honestly, when we made the film, we weren’t thinking about festivals at all. We never set ourselves the task of getting into an international competition. We simply made a film we ourselves would want to watch. But after Dastur (Tradition), we met the European producer Anna Katchko and showed her Sicko. She immediately said the film had strong festival potential and started promoting it. That’s how it ended up in Rotterdam. If we had thought about festivals earlier, perhaps we could have submitted it to larger festivals as well. We finished the film after most major deadlines had already passed. TCA: How did international audiences react to the film? Orazbek: It was an interesting experience. We were given a fairly large screening hall with 600–700 seats. At first, the audience consisted mainly of Kazakhs living in Rotterdam and nearby cities, so everything felt familiar. I wasn’t nervous because our whole team was there – director Aitore Zholdaskali, actor Ayan Utepbergen, and producers Kuanysh Beisek and Almas Zhali. But then more and more foreigners started arriving, Europeans in the broadest sense, people of different ages, backgrounds and appearances. And when you realize they came specifically to watch a story created in Kazakhstan for a Kazakh audience, it becomes overwhelming. TCA: Were you nervous? Orazbek: It was a strange feeling. I was both happy and extremely anxious. I sat there listening to the audience reactions. They reacted even more intensely than audiences back home. They laughed exactly where they were supposed to laugh, and they were genuinely frightened where we wanted them to be frightened. Every emotion we had built into the film, they understood perfectly. That surprised me because they are far removed from Kazakh reality, yet they still connected with the story exactly as intended. Maybe that distance made their reactions somehow “cleaner” and more direct. Whenever someone left the theater, I worried they hated the movie. In my head I kept saying, “Please come back.” Thankfully, people returned and stayed until the end. TCA: And what was the reaction during the Q&A afterward? Orazbek: The film was very...

3 weeks ago

Opinion: Eurasia’s New Corridors Are More Than a Transit Race

Across Eurasia, new transport corridors are usually described as instruments of rivalry: routes to bypass Russia, ports to outflank competitors, or rail links to shift influence between regions. The conflict around Iran, the rivalry between India and Pakistan, instability in the Afghanistan-Pakistan zone, crises in the Middle East, sanctions, competition over transport routes, and growing struggles for transit influence all reinforce the image of a continent divided by political contradictions. Increasingly, this is the lens through which Eurasia is viewed. The development of transport routes and connectivity is now often explained through the logic of rivalry. Some corridors are described as alternatives to others. Certain ports are positioned against competing ports. Routes are increasingly perceived as tools of competition, circumvention, or geopolitical influence. The continent can also be viewed differently. Alongside political crises, another reality is visible: the continent continues to connect itself through new routes and networks. Railways, ports, energy grids, dry ports, container corridors, digital cables, and trade chains are gradually linking spaces that only recently were seen as separate regions. In many ways, Eurasia has always been a space of movement, exchange, and connectivity. The Silk Road Was a Network, Not a Single Route A recent article by News Central Asia made a simple but important observation: the Silk Road functioned because it belonged to everyone. This idea contains one of the central lessons of Eurasian history. The Silk Road was never a single road. It was not one unified highway built according to a master plan or controlled by a single center. For centuries, the continent was connected by a vast network of caravan routes, maritime pathways, mountain passes, cities, and trade hubs through which goods, people, knowledge, and ideas circulated. Some routes gained importance while others temporarily declined. States, empires, and commercial centers changed. New pathways emerged. Yet the network itself endured. The strength of the Silk Road lay not in one route, but in the multiplicity of connections. When one corridor became unsafe, trade shifted elsewhere. When political conditions changed, commerce adapted to a new geography. The continental network remained flexible and multilayered. This offers an important lesson for today’s Eurasian space as well. Many modern transport corridors did not emerge from nothing. In many respects, they follow historical logic. Railways have replaced caravan paths, dry ports have succeeded old trade hubs, and container routes continue along directions in which goods moved for centuries. Corridors and the Logic of Rivalry Today, most transport and economic corridors are interpreted as competing projects. Nearly every new route is framed through confrontation, alternatives, or attempts to bypass another direction. The Middle Corridor is often described as an alternative to northern routes. The International North-South Transport Corridor is presented as a separate geo-economic axis. Trans-Afghan projects are portrayed as competitors to other links between Central and South Asia. Chabahar and Gwadar are depicted as rival ports. Even the South Caucasus transport hub is increasingly viewed through the prism of struggles over control of routes and flows. Yet historically,...

3 weeks ago

From Golden Treasures to Looted Burial Mounds: How “Black Diggers” Are Destroying Eastern Kazakhstan’s History

Eastern Kazakhstan has gained international recognition for its extraordinary archaeological discoveries, but alongside that fame has come a growing threat: illegal treasure hunters, known locally as “black diggers,” are destroying historical monuments and depriving future generations of access to invaluable artifacts. Eastern Kazakhstan’s Archaeological Treasures In recent years, the Eastern Kazakhstan has become one of the most important archaeological regions in Central Asia. Researchers have uncovered ancient burial complexes belonging to the Saka, nomadic peoples of the early Iron Age whose sophisticated culture has challenged long-standing assumptions about the civilizations of the Eurasian steppe. Excavations at the Shilikty, Eleke Sazy, and Berel burial mounds have revealed thousands of gold ornaments, clothing adornments, and ceremonial decorations noted for their craftsmanship and artistic sophistication. At the Shilikty necropolis, archaeologists uncovered burials containing unique gold jewelry, including earrings, bracelets, fibulae, and miniature decorative elements used on clothing. Each object demonstrates extraordinary craftsmanship, intricate ornamentation, and meticulous attention to detail. [caption id="attachment_49642" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] @Yulia Chernyavskaya[/caption] At Eleke Sazy, archaeologists found an intact burial containing jewelry, clothing adornments, horse harness ornaments, and other decorative objects associated with a teenage archer who was no older than 18. A heavily looted grave of a girl aged 13 or 14, thought to have been his sister, was found nearby. Berel yielded particularly significant discoveries, including gold and bronze ornaments, clothing fragments, and horse trappings that reveal the high artistic culture of the ancient nomads. Artifacts from Berel were later displayed at the Fitzwilliam Museum in Cambridge, England, as part of the exhibition Gold of the Great Steppe, drawing widespread attention from scholars and visitors. The discoveries quickly gained international recognition and confirmed the sophisticated level of Saka civilization. Equally striking finds emerged from the Kurchum district, where archaeologists uncovered horse equipment, including bits, saddles, and straps, crafted from gold and preserved for millennia. These objects demonstrate that the nomadic cultures of Eastern Kazakhstan possessed metallurgical and jewelry-making skills comparable to the great centers of ancient craftsmanship. Every archaeological discovery offers another glimpse into the past, a chance to better understand the daily life, beliefs, and culture of the Saka. Yet these discoveries remain vulnerable to destruction by illegal excavators. The Rise of the Black Diggers Alongside the archaeological boom has come a darker phenomenon: the rapid growth of illegal treasure hunting. Rather than preserving history, black diggers destroy burial mounds and ancient cemeteries in search of gold and valuables, obliterating archaeological layers and artifacts that could provide scientists with invaluable information about the past. In many cases, illegal diggers arrive at excavation sites before archaeologists have even begun clearing the area. In pursuit of treasure, they use shovels and metal detectors, as well as heavy machinery such as bulldozers and excavators, which strip away entire layers of earth and destroy everything in their path. The scale of the destruction has become alarming. [caption id="attachment_49643" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] @Yulia Chernyavskaya[/caption] [caption id="attachment_49644" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] @Yulia Chernyavskaya[/caption] Last year, more than 200 burial mounds in the Zharma district of Kazakhstan’s...

3 weeks ago

Top U.S. State Department Official Travels to Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan

Sarah B. Rogers, a senior official at the United States Department of State whose job includes engaging foreign publics through educational, cultural, and other means, will visit Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan as part of a trip to Central Asia and South Asia. Rogers, the under secretary of state for public diplomacy and public affairs, will also visit India and Nepal during the May 27-June 10 tour, according to the State Department. President Donald Trump nominated Rogers, a lawyer, to the post early last year and she was sworn in on October 10, 2025. The president has since nominated her to head the U.S Agency for Global Media, a federal agency tasked with disseminating information to international audiences that has been in turmoil since early in Trump’s second term. If confirmed, Rogers would keep her current job while also running the agency. The Trump administration sharply scaled back the operations of the global media agency, which oversees Voice of America and other U.S.-funded outlets, as part of a broader reduction in funding for U.S. aid projects around the world. Central Asia was among the affected regions where some U.S. funding was withdrawn, even as Washington ramped up economic and diplomatic initiatives with governments in that region. U.S. administration officials have alleged that the global media agency was vulnerable to political bias and management, though supporters said it played a valuable role in disseminating information in countries led by authoritarian governments. Lawsuits and court rulings have slowed the push to dismantle the agency. In her role as under secretary, Rogers has criticized what she calls censorship in Europe, saying speech regulation there is placing unfair restrictions on U.S. tech companies and undermining democracy. Opponents say she is seeking common cause with ideological allies of the Trump administration in Europe. “Truth-telling and censorship circumvention, including in closed societies, are critical causes for me,” Rogers said after her March nomination to lead the U.S. Agency for Global Media.

3 weeks ago

Opinion: Water Without a Guarantor – Central Asia’s Next Security Test

The Fourth High-Level International Conference on the International Decade for Action, “Water for Sustainable Development,“ taking place in Dushanbe on May 25-28, comes at a difficult moment. Central Asia's water problem is no longer only about environmental management; it is moving into the field of regional security. The conference agenda is familiar and necessary: climate, investment, innovation, transboundary cooperation, and the implementation of the Water Action Decade. The harder question is what happens outside the conference hall. Does Central Asia still have a credible way to stop water stress from becoming an interstate crisis? For decades, the region operated in a post-Soviet setting in which Moscow shaped many security calculations, even though it was never a formal water arbiter. That setting has weakened. Russia has not disappeared from Central Asia, and it still retains military, economic, and institutional leverage. But since 2022, its role as the assumed external stabilizer has become less convincing. The result is not a simple vacuum. It is a more awkward reality: a region with many outside actors, but no trusted water-security guarantor. The Old Backdrop Is Weakening Central Asia's water system was built around a Soviet-era division of functions. Upstream republics, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, controlled the mountains, reservoirs, and hydropower potential. Downstream republics, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, depended on seasonal water flows for agriculture, food security, and social stability. The Soviet system managed those tensions through central planning. After independence, cooperation became more fragile. Water, energy, borders, electricity, and agriculture were separated into national strategies. The rivers, however, remained transboundary. For many years, Russia remained the largest external power around which regional security calculations were organized. That did not make Moscow an effective water manager, but it helped shape the political environment. Today, that environment has changed. The CSTO did not prevent the Kyrgyz-Tajik border escalations of recent years. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan eventually reached a border agreement through direct negotiation rather than outside enforcement. That difference is not academic. Water disputes are rarely settled by conferences alone. They need trusted channels for mediation, compensation, and restraint when pressure builds. Central Asia has plenty of statements about cooperation. It has fewer tools for managing coercion when water becomes scarce. Three Pressure Points The region's water-security stress is already visible in three places. The first is Afghanistan's Qosh-Tepa Canal. The canal draws water from the Amu Darya, a river system critical for Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Because Afghanistan was not part of the old Soviet water-allocation arrangements, the Taliban government is creating a new upstream reality outside the inherited regional framework. Estimates of the canal's downstream impact vary widely. Some analyses suggest it could divert between 15 and 30% of the Amu Darya's flow, depending on the completion timeline, irrigation efficiency, and water-management practices. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that reduced Amu Darya flows could indirectly affect Kazakhstan if Uzbekistan compensates by drawing more heavily on the Syr Darya. Carnegie has described the Qosh-Tepa as a serious test for regional water cooperation. The second pressure point...

3 weeks ago