Questions Mount After Azeri Plane Crash with Focus on Russian Air Defenses
On December 25, an Azerbaijani Embraer 190 aircraft operating a Baku-Grozny flight made a hard emergency landing near the city of Aktau, Kazakhstan. The aircraft, carrying five crew members and 62 passengers, suffered devastating consequences. Both pilots were killed, along with 36 passengers. Additionally, 29 people, including three children, were hospitalized. The aircraft disintegrated on impact, and a fire engulfed its midsection. Initial reports suggested a bird strike, but alternative theories have since emerged. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Emergency Situations detailed the timeline: at 11:02 Astana time, the crew issued a distress signal while flying over the Caspian Sea. By 11:37, the plane made a hard landing in the steppe near Aktau. Before official rescue teams arrived, employees of a local energy company working nearby provided critical first aid and captured the first videos of the crash. They managed to pull 15 passengers from the wreckage of the tail section. Specialized rescue teams and medics, stationed at Aktau airport in anticipation of the emergency landing, arrived promptly thereafter. According to Nurdaulet Kilybay, Akim of Mangystau Region, "22 ambulance teams and six units from the Center for Disaster Medicine worked at the crash site." The regional multidisciplinary hospital had prepared “30 surgical and trauma beds, along with 10 intensive care beds” for victims. Speculations and Investigations Journalists questioned Bozumbayev during the briefing about theories which are currently circulating, including those suggesting air defense involvement. The official avoided drawing conclusions, stating: "It is impossible to establish even a preliminary cause because there are specialists for this. They will carry out work. Then it will be clear. I can't speak now. I watched what people are posting... While [the plane] fell to the ground, and turned over, a lot of things could have happened. So, I am far from reaching conclusions." Speculation on Russian Telegram channels has posited that perforations in the aircraft’s tail section resemble shelling damage. One theory links the crash to Ukrainian drone (UAV) raids over Grozny, suggesting that air defense systems mistakenly targeted the plane. The Telegram channel VChK-OGPU claimed that "Initially, the aircraft appears to have fallen victim to UAV jammers that were operating at the time because of a drone attack. As soon as the airliner started to descend for landing, its GPS stopped working and the dispatcher lost 'radar contact.' The pilot could not land the plane in such conditions and decided to fly to Baku. When he began to turn around to do so, there was an explosion nearby — all indications are that the plane was hit by air defense equipment." The report further alleges that the strike occurred over Chechnya’s Naursky District, home to military units equipped with air defense systems. Kazakh officials stressed the need for patience, as forensic and aviation experts work to analyze the wreckage and flight data, with Bozumbayev emphasizing that “An interdepartmental investigative and operational group has been set up. Both forensic experts and experts from our Aviation Administration, who investigate such air incidents, came with me. As part...
