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Oil and Gas

Russia to Halt Kazakh Oil Flow to Germany, Exposing Europe’s Transit Vulnerability

Russia will stop the transit of Kazakh oil to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline from May 1 according to Reuters, disrupting a route that Berlin had built up after ending direct Russian crude imports. The move affects supplies to the PCK refinery in Schwedt, a major fuel plant for Berlin and Brandenburg. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the change would begin because of “technical possibilities.” Germany’s economy ministry said Rosneft Germany, which remains under German trusteeship, had informed the Federal Network Agency that transit of Kazakh crude through Russian territory to PCK would be prohibited from that date. The ministry added that the Russian government had not directly notified Berlin. Germany’s economy ministry said the stoppage did not threaten fuel supply and that existing alternatives would be used. About 17% of PCK Schwedt’s current crude supply comes from Kazakh oil delivered through the Druzhba pipeline. Germany’s economy ministry said that “existing options will be utilized to ensure security of supply in Germany” and that the halt “did not put the security of supply of petroleum products in jeopardy.” [caption id="attachment_47676" align="aligncenter" width="1038"] Image: pck.de/[/caption] However, the halt still exposes Germany’s reliance on a route that runs through Russia. Schwedt can process up to 12 million metric tons of oil a year and is a major fuel supplier for Berlin and Brandenburg, so any disruption attracts close attention even if replacement volumes can be found elsewhere. Germany has already looked at alternative deliveries through Rostock and Gdansk. Since 2023, Kazakh crude has reached Germany through Russia and Belarus via the Druzhba pipeline, giving Berlin a non-Russian source of oil and expanding Astana’s role in the European market. But the route still relied on Russian transit approval. The halt comes after two years of growth. Regular deliveries of Kazakh crude to Germany began in 2023, and in October 2025, the supply arrangement was extended through the end of 2026. Kazakhstan had been planning to expand that trade further. During an April 7 meeting with Bavarian State Minister Eric Beißwenger, Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry said it aimed to raise oil exports to Germany to 2.5 million tons in 2026. Reuters reported that 2.146 million metric tons were delivered in 2025 and that 730,000 tons were supplied in the first quarter of 2026. KazTransOil has separately published its first-quarter operating results. Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov confirmed that Druzhba transit to Germany would be halted. “For May, transit through Atyrau-Samara in the direction of the Druzhba pipeline and further to the Schwedt refinery is zero,” Akkenzhenov stated. He added that the Russian side, according to unofficial information, said it lacked the technical capability to pump Kazakh oil and that this was “most likely” linked to recent strikes on Russian infrastructure. He said transit would resume once the technical issue was resolved. Kazakh crude sent to Germany through Druzhba first moves via the Uzen-Atyrau-Samara pipeline and then through Transneft’s system to the Adamova Zastava delivery point before reaching Schwedt. The oil is sold as...

Investment

Tajikistan’s Reliance on External Funding for State Investment Projects Is Growing

Tajikistan continues to implement a large-scale state investment programme. International financial institutions play a key role in financing these projects, however, while the government's own contribution remains limited. According to data from the State Committee on Investment and State Property Management, 82 state investment projects are currently under way in the country The total value of ongoing initiatives is estimated at approximately $4.67 billion. Of these, 55 projects are being implemented on a grant basis, five through loans, and another 22 have mixed financing. About $3 billion has already been allocated for procurement, works, and services related to the implementation of these projects. However, more than 70% of the funding is provided by just three international institutions. The World Bank remains the largest donor, contributing $1.725 billion (36.9%). It is followed by the Asian Development Bank with $914.7 million (19.5%) and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) with $658.1 million (14.1%). Other investors include the Islamic Development Bank ($207.9 million), the Chinese government ($194.9 million), the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank ($142.5 million), the German Development Bank ($129.3 million), and the European Investment Bank ($114.8 million). Against the backdrop of extensive external financing, Tajikistan’s own contribution remains small. The state is investing approximately $151.2 million, accounting for only 3.2% of the total. This means that the implementation of key infrastructure and social projects largely depends on international donors and lenders. At the same time, in 2025 Tajikistan managed to significantly increase capital inflows. Foreign investment reached approximately $7 billion, rising by nearly $2 billion (35.1%) compared with the previous year. The authorities hope to sustain this momentum by improving the investment climate, including through legislative updates. A key step was the adoption on May 14, 2025, of a new version of the law “On Investments and the Promotion of Investment Activity,” aimed at increasing the country’s attractiveness to international partners. The current development model allows Tajikistan to implement large-scale projects that would be difficult to carry out relying solely on domestic resources. However, this financing structure also increases dependence on external sources, making the economy more sensitive to the conditions set by international institutions and the global financial environment.

Z5+1

Germany Builds a Z5+1 in Central Asia

Germany’s meeting on February 11 with the five Central Asian foreign ministers in Berlin formalized the Z5+1 (“Z” for “Zentralasien”) format as a standing work channel. It joins other “plus-one” formats now crowding Central Asia that function as instruments of influence. The United States is using C5+1 to push a more deliverables-oriented agenda, including critical raw materials, and China has institutionalized leader-level summitry with accompanying treaties, grants, and transport-centered integration. The EU has elevated its relationship to a strategic partnership and is putting Global Gateway branding behind connectivity and investment. Germany’s Z5+1 is best understood as Europe’s effort to add a practical, tool-driven channel that can move faster than EU consensus in some domains while still feeding EU programming rather than competing with it. The concluding Berlin Declaration reads like a program sheet with named instruments, sector priorities, and established a direct link to the EU’s broader “Team Europe” posture through the participation of EU Special Representative Eduards Stiprais. Germany’s Z5+1 fits this competitive field as a European execution lane that can move projects forward with German instruments while staying aligned with EU programs. Berlin Defines the Tools The Z5+1 meeting in Berlin drew on a sequence that Germany has been building since its 2023 “Strategic Regional Partnership” and subsequent summits in Berlin (2023) and Astana (2024), with an explicit emphasis on Central Asian regional cooperation as a counterpart to bilateral ties. The Berlin meeting, therefore, did not attempt to invent a new regional architecture but rather added a stable ministerial format for pushing forward project lists, regulatory expectations, and finance conditions between higher-level meetings. In Berlin, Germany committed €2.7 million to a cooperation platform for the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor: a small sum by infrastructure standards, but targeted at unglamorous coordination like data-sharing, planning discipline, and institutional continuity, i.e., standards and transborder management regimes where corridor initiatives often stall. This profile complements the EU-backed Trans-Caspian Coordination Platform track, which is explicitly tied to a wider €10 billion commitment announced at the January 2024 Global Gateway investors forum for EU–Central Asia transport connectivity. and which has addressed the corridor less as a construction problem than as a finance-and-sequencing problem. Berlin also explicitly supported the commercial participation of German rail and logistics firms in transport and consulting projects, aligning with the intent to keep firm-level engagement attached to ministerial diplomacy. The declaration references export credits and investment guarantees, and links them to business-environment expectations. On the same day, the German Eastern Business Association convened a “Wirtschaftsgespräch” (economics talk) in the Foreign Office with the Central Asian delegations. There, the region was framed as strategically significant for Germany’s diversification agenda, and it was signaled that an autumn leaders’ summit is already in view. Germany’s public accounting of its regional engagement in Central Asia stresses its already-deep base of activity in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in particular, including dozens of projects and multi-billion-euro volumes. The energy transition was mentioned, as the Berlin Declaration points to renewables, hydrogen, and climate programming that Germany is already funding...

aigul sailybayeva

Murder of Aigul Sailybayeva: Husband Among Key Suspects in Ongoing Investigation

The death of 40-year-old Aigul Sailybayeva became publicly known approximately a year and a half ago. The former judge from Kazakhstan was 24 weeks pregnant at the time of her death. She had been living in Germany with her husband and young daughter and, according to relatives, had reduced contact with family members roughly a year before the incident. According to media reports, on June 4, 2024, Sailybayeva took her daughter to kindergarten and then disappeared. Two weeks later, volunteers discovered a suitcase containing human remains near a lake outside the town of Bensheim in the German state of Hesse. Forensic experts reported multiple stab wounds and chemical burns on the body. Case Timeline Open-source reporting indicates that on June 4, 2024, Sailybayeva dropped her child off at a kindergarten in Bensheim and subsequently stopped responding to messages and calls. Relatives in Kazakhstan reported her missing after failing to reach her. Her husband, Alexander Dontsov, reportedly was unable to clearly account for her whereabouts. On June 16, volunteers found a suitcase containing remains near a lake outside Bensheim. German authorities opened a murder investigation. Forensic findings cited stab wounds and chemical burns. Several media outlets, citing investigative sources, reported that the fatal incident may have occurred on the day of her disappearance. According to these reports, a domestic conflict allegedly took place, after which Dontsov contacted his mother, Natalya Dontsova. It has also been claimed that the couple’s daughter may have been present. These details are based on media leaks and have not been confirmed by a final court ruling. Investigators reportedly documented cleaned blood traces in the residence and seized an object believed to be a possible weapon. Media reports state that fingerprints attributed to the mother-in-law were found on it. Authorities also noted that shortly after the disappearance, Alexander Dontsov left Germany with the child for Russia, and his mother flew to Moscow the following day. By July 2024, German authorities had placed Natalya Dontsova on an international wanted list via Interpol. A criminal case was also opened in Kazakhstan under articles related to torture and violent death. The victim’s parents publicly accused their son-in-law and his mother of involvement in the killing. Through late 2024 and 2025, additional investigative details appeared in the press. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs sent inquiries to Russia regarding the suspects’ citizenship status. Russian authorities initiated checks following media reports that the Dontsovs might be in Moscow. In February 2026, journalists reported that both individuals were in Moscow. According to these reports, Alexander Dontsov works as a research fellow at the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at HSE University. Natalya Dontsova also resides in Moscow and reportedly declined to testify, invoking her constitutional rights. The investigation remains ongoing. Who Was Aigul Sailybayeva Sailybayeva was a Kazakh lawyer and former judge who previously worked in Kazakhstan’s judicial system. She later lived in the United Kingdom, where she met Alexander Dontsov, and in 2020 moved to Germany with her husband and daughter....

Alisher Usmanov

German Court Restricts Media Claims About Russian-Uzbek Billionaire Alisher Usmanov

A German court has ruled in favor of Russian-Uzbek billionaire Alisher Usmanov, barring the publication of several contested statements made about him by the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ), according to court documents cited by Reuters. In a decision dated January 23, the Hamburg Regional Court prohibited FAZ from further disseminating specific sections of its April 2023 article titled On the Kremlin’s Instructions. The statements in question allegedly linked Usmanov to senior Russian officials. The court determined that these claims may no longer be repeated in their current form. Usmanov, who was born in Uzbekistan, has an estimated net worth of $18.8 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. He is subject to European Union and United States sanctions, including a travel ban, imposed following the start of the war in Ukraine. Over the past two years, he has launched multiple legal challenges in European courts, contesting media reports that he argues were used as justification for the sanctions. Reacting to the ruling, Usmanov’s lawyer, Joachim Steinhöfel, said the statements banned by the court “repeated essential parts of the reasoning behind the sanctions against Mr. Usmanov.” He added that the decision supports the argument that the sanctions were based on what he described as “defamatory and groundless allegations,” Reuters reported. FAZ said it is considering an appeal. A spokesperson for the newspaper warned that the court’s legal criteria could make it more difficult to report on individuals in authoritarian systems, raising broader concerns about press freedom. Separately, in 2024, another Hamburg court ruled against the German broadcaster ARD over a report that linked Usmanov to a scheme involving alleged bribes to judges at the International Fencing Federation. The court banned further distribution of the report, describing it as “news based on suspicion.” Violations of the order could lead to fines of up to €250,000 per incident or imprisonment. Reuters also reported that German authorities agreed last month to close a foreign trade law investigation involving Usmanov after he paid €10 million. A separate money laundering probe was dropped in 2024.

Germany

Tajik Citizen Deported from Germany Over Suspected Terror Plot

German authorities have deported a 21-year-old citizen of Tajikistan who was detained on suspicion of planning attacks in crowded areas. Although no criminal case was formally opened, law enforcement officials cited concerns for public safety as sufficient grounds for deportation. The individual was detained in December 2025 in the city of Magdeburg. According to Die Zeit, the arrest was prompted by concerns that the young man posed a potential threat to public safety. Authorities claimed that although there was insufficient evidence to prosecute him under criminal law, his behavior suggested the possibility of radical intentions. Following several weeks of investigation, a decision was made to deport him. Police linked their concerns to signs of religious radicalization. Reports suggest the individual exhibited ideological extremism and a growing interest in firearms. While enrolled in a vocational school, he allegedly clashed repeatedly with classmates over religious issues. Mario Schwan, head of the Saxony-Anhalt state police, stated that the case was considered an “immediate threat” based on the police’s assessment. The man had entered Germany legally in June 2024 under a visa granted for participation in the Au Pair program. In his application, he expressed interest in German language and culture. He later enrolled in medical studies at the University Hospital of Magdeburg.