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Middle Corridor

Tentative Armenia-Azerbaijan Plan Could Boost the Middle Corridor for Central Asia

A tentative U.S.-facilitated agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan could open a new transport route through Armenia’s southern Syunik region, linking mainland Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan and onward to Türkiye. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has confirmed that Washington proposed managing a 32-kilometer corridor through Syunik to connect the two Azerbaijani territories. While this outline has been discussed publicly, the legal and operational details remain undisclosed, and officials say more information will be released if the agreement is finalized. According to U.S. mediators and regional leaders, the route is part of ongoing efforts to normalize Armenia-Azerbaijan relations after decades of conflict. A U.S. official told reporters the plan could “open Armenia to the world” by providing new options for regional trade and transit. Both sides stress that key issues—such as governance, security, and financing—still need resolution. The corridor is one of the main sticking points in peace talks: Azerbaijan wants it free from exclusive Armenian control, while Armenia rejects any arrangement that would compromise its sovereignty. If realized, the route could become a new link in the Trans-Caspian “Middle Corridor”, which connects Central Asia to Europe via Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Türkiye. It would offer Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan an additional westward route, bypassing Russian and Iranian territory. Traffic along the Middle Corridor has grown rapidly as shippers sought alternatives to northern routes. Cargo volumes along the Middle Corridor increased markedly—from around 600,000 tons in 2021 to approximately 1.5 million tons in 2022, representing a 2.5-fold rise and climbed further to approximately 4.1 million tons by late 2024. The EU has committed billions of euros to upgrade ports, railways, and logistics hubs, and the World Bank forecasts the volumes potentially reaching up to 11 million tonnes per year. route’s freight volumes could triple by 2030. An Armenian segment could further cut transit times and build redundancy, improving supply chain resilience for Central Asia. The proposal’s framing as a U.S.-supported project signals a shift in South Caucasus diplomacy. Russia has long mediated between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but its influence has waned amid the war in Ukraine. Olesya Vartanyan, a South Caucasus expert at the International Crisis Group, told AP News, “Russia has been left on the sidelines, because the Kremlin has nothing to offer to Armenia and Azerbaijan.” The initiative also concerns Iran, which fears losing its role as a north–south transit hub. For Central Asia, the corridor could add a politically diversified channel for exports, reinforcing “multi-vector” trade strategies. It would provide new access to Turkish and European markets, potentially strengthening regional bargaining power. The proposed corridor is expected to include rail transport as well as oil and gas pipelines and fiber‑optic cables, though construction would be carried out by private firms under a U.S.-negotiated lease agreement as reported by PanArmenian news service. This could allow Caspian energy exports from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to reach Türkiye and Europe more directly, and improve Central Asia’s digital connectivity by reducing reliance on Russian telecom routes. However, no technical designs...

Nagorno-Karabakh

Armenia, Azerbaijan Invited to Sign Peace Deal in Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyzstan has offered to host the signing of a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, though tensions persist between the two longtime adversaries and a date for signing has not been set. Nurlanbek Turgunbek uulu, the parliamentary speaker of Kyrgyzstan, made the offer during a meeting in Armenia with Alen Simonyan, leader of that country’s National Assembly. The news was reported on Monday by Aravot, a publication based in Armenia. “Alen Simonyan touched upon the already completed draft of the Peace Agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, mentioning that the Armenian side is ready to sign it,” Aravot reported. “In response to this, the Head of the Kyrgyz Parliament noted that Kyrgyzstan is ready to provide a platform for the signing” of the peace deal. Kyrgyzstan’s parliamentary speaker was accompanied by several other parliamentarians on the May 25-27 trip to Armenia. Armenia and Azerbaijan said in March that they had agreed on the text of a peace deal after decades of conflict and Azerbaijan´s military seizure of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region in 2023. However, Azerbaijan says Armenia must change its constitution to remove language that allegedly lays claim to Azerbaijani territory, while Armenia says Azerbaijan is using the issue as an excuse to undermine the peace deal. Kazakhstan has also sought to assist in peace efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan, hosting a meeting of the foreign ministers of the two rivals in Almaty last year.

Collective Security Treaty Organization

Controversies and Rejections: What Future Awaits the CSTO?

Armenia has officially refused to contribute financially to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a bloc tasked with ensuring the independence, territorial integrity, and sovereignty of its member states. Meanwhile, the organization’s Secretary General, Imangali Tasmagambetov, has come under scrutiny for remarks he made related to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Shifting Alliances and Regional Tensions Founded in 1992, the CSTO comprises Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Belarus, Tajikistan, and Armenia. Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan have withdrawn from the organization at various times. While the CSTO regularly conducts joint military exercises and cooperates on counter-terrorism and anti-narcotics efforts, the war in Ukraine has exposed internal divisions and challenged the bloc’s cohesion. Tasmagambetov Responds to Criticism In March, Secretary General Tasmagambetov raised eyebrows in an interview with a Russian outlet, warning that any deployment of EU troops to Ukraine could escalate regional tensions. He stated that the CSTO would be ready to provide assistance “within the framework of the organization’s charter and subject to approval by all member states.” The remarks sparked a backlash, particularly on social media in Kazakhstan, where some users accused Tasmagambetov, the former prime minister, of adopting a pro-Russian stance. Responding in late March, Tasmagambetov recorded a rare video message clarifying his position. “How can one calmly react to baseless claims that I would send my compatriots to war?” he asked. “There will always be those who distort my words. I have always remained loyal to my people; the interests of our country have always come first.” Tasmagambetov went on to urge viewers to think critically about information shared online. This controversy follows an earlier statement by Aibek Smadiarov, spokesperson for Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, who said in October 2022 that the CSTO had no plans to involve itself in the Ukraine conflict. “The CSTO's jurisdiction is limited to the internationally recognized territories of its member states,” Smadiarov stated. Kazakhstan, meanwhile, is reviewing a report by a Ukrainian institution that said about 661 Kazakh citizens have fought for Russia since it launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The I Want To Live center, which is run by the Ukrainian security services and assists with surrender requests from soldiers fighting for Russia, published a list of what it said were the Kazakh nationals. Of the 661, at least 78 have been killed, according to the center. Without providing details, it said it received the list from its own sources within the Russian military. Kazakh media quoted Igor Lepekha, Kazakhstan’s deputy interior minister of internal affairs, as saying the numbers have to be checked because it is unclear whether they are reliable. Kazakhstan bans mercenary activities in foreign conflicts and has opened a number of related investigations in the last few years. Last year, a court in Kazakhstan sentenced a Kazakh national to more than six years in jail for fighting with Russia’s Wagner Group in Ukraine. Armenia Pulls Back Adding to the bloc’s instability, Armenia recently announced that it would no longer finance the...

Middle Corridor

Opinion: Washington Needs a Stronger Policy for the Middle Corridor

The inauguration of President Donald Trump marks a new phase in U.S. foreign policy with direct implications for the Middle Corridor, a key trade route linking China to Europe via Central Asia and the South Caucasus. This corridor, also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), has been gaining increasing strategic importance as global trade patterns shift and great-power competition intensifies. During Trump’s first term, U.S. engagement in the region was sporadic and lacked a comprehensive strategy. While some policy initiatives were undertaken to counterbalance Russian and Chinese influence in Eurasia, these efforts remained piecemeal. The Biden administration attempted to address this gap by allocating limited funding for infrastructure development and engaging in regional negotiations aimed at fostering greater connectivity. However, Biden’s approach ultimately fell short of a coherent, long-term policy, allowing Moscow and Beijing to consolidate their positions in the region. The significance of the Middle Corridor has been underscored by increased international investment. Beyond economic concerns, the Middle Corridor plays a critical role in Europe’s energy security. The corridor facilitates the westward flow of Caspian resources, providing an alternative to Russian energy exports. The development of the Middle Corridor offers a strategic means of achieving this goal, reinforcing the EU’s energy independence while simultaneously strengthening economic ties with the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Azerbaijan has emerged as a central player in the development of the Middle Corridor. As a crucial transit country, Baku has actively pursued infrastructure investments to bolster the corridor’s efficiency. Azerbaijan’s role is further magnified by its growing energy exports to Europe, solidifying its position as a strategic partner in regional energy security. The Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway, a vital component of the corridor, has received continued investment, underscoring Azerbaijan’s commitment to enhancing trade and transit connectivity. However, Azerbaijan’s increasing importance also intersects with ongoing geopolitical complexities, particularly its relationship with Armenia. The absence of Armenian participation in the Middle Corridor remains a notable gap, one that is directly tied to the resolution of long-standing territorial disputes. The prospect of an Armenia–Azerbaijan peace treaty has gained traction in recent years, supported by Western diplomatic efforts. U.S. policymakers have recognized that sustainable peace between the two nations would not only stabilize the South Caucasus but also unlock Armenia’s potential role in the corridor. Armenia’s geopolitical realignment presents both opportunities and challenges. While Yerevan has signaled its interest in deepening ties with the West, it remains economically dependent on Russia, particularly in energy and financial sectors. Increased Armenian exports to Russia, some of which analysts suspect may involve re-exports of sanctioned goods, further complicate efforts to shift its economic orientation. Recent discussions within U.S. policy circles indicate a growing recognition of the Middle Corridor’s strategic importance. American policymakers have begun exploring ways to expand support for infrastructure development in the region, recognizing that a proactive approach could yield multiple geopolitical and economic benefits. By investing in the Middle Corridor, the U.S. has an opportunity to enhance regional stability, strengthen economic ties with key partners, and counterbalance Russian...

Armenia

Kazakhstan Works with Armenia and Azerbaijan for South Caucasus Peace

By Robert M. Cutler On May 10–11, Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev hosted peace talks between the Azerbaijani and Armenian foreign ministers. These constructive negotiations were strictly bilateral, with Kazakhstan absent from the room and only providing the venue for the meeting. The event illustrates the dedication by Tokayev and his foreign policy to regional stability and mediation. Kazakhstan has done this sort of thing in the past; it hosted Russia–Turkey–Iran talks over Syria until last year. It was also mentioned as a place for bilateral Russia–Ukraine negotiations, although that idea never materialized. Armenia's Future is in the South Caucasus and Asia Tokayev had offered to provide the venue during his first official visit to Armenia, which took place on April 15 this year. His trip to Armenia may in retrospect be seen as a turning point. Former President Nursultan Nazarbayev had been forced to cancel a visit in 2016, following protests in Yerevan against Astana's support of Baku in the Karabakh conflict. Armenia’s participation in the new peace efforts, now under way for a couple of years, marks a significant shift after decades of rejecting such cooperation. It offers the prospect of renewed regional relations. Under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Armenia has lately been trying to shift its foreign policy, reaching out to Western countries such as France and the U.S. in order to decrease its long-standing dependence on (some would say, vassalage to) Russia. But Armenia is a state in the South Caucasus, not in Europe or America. For this reason, the state’s objective interests (as opposed to those of the far-flung diaspora) are geopolitically compatible with those of Azerbaijan and Turkey, and also of Kazakhstan more distantly. Astana’s ties with Baku and Ankara, and Azerbaijan’s strengthening of its own ties with Central Asia, reflect strategic manoeuvring in the region. These partnerships enhance Kazakhstan's and Turkey's roles in promoting stability and development in the South Caucasus. They consequently offer Armenia a new path to prosperity. Peace with Azerbaijan would lead to the lifting of the Turkish embargo on Armenia and open the possibility of Armenia's integration into the Trans-Caspian International Trade Route (TITR, "Middle Corridor"). Such an opening would further widen Armenia's diplomatic vistas and decrease its dependence on Russia. Turning to Europe and the U.S. can offer some advantages, but Armenia must be cautious of the influence of a bellicosely irredentist Armenian diaspora, whose interests are not first and foremost the well-being of Armenians living in Armenia. Prioritizing regional integration and cooperation with its South Caucasus neighbours and other TITR participants will enable Armenia proper to build a more stable and prosperous future. Infrastructure and Connectivity Initiatives With the assistance of the international financial institutions, the European Union and Central Asia are developing the TITR as a critical trade corridor that will also contribute significantly to the prosperity and stability of the countries lying along its route. Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have long been key players in the promotion and realization of this plan. The Middle Corridor,...

Azerbaijan Armenia Conflict Resolution

Kazakhstan to Host Armenia-Azerbaijan Talks on May 10

The foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan will hold talks in Almaty on May 10 as they seek to end their long-running conflict, Kazakhstan said on Monday. The negotiations will happen in line with “previously reached agreements,” said Aibek Smadiyarov, spokesman for Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Jeyhun Bayramov, Azerbaijan’s top diplomat, and his Armenian counterpart, Ararat Mirzoyan, will attend, according to the Kazakh official. Armenia and Azerbaijan have been locked in tension and conflict over territory since the 1990s, though the two sides have been working to delineate their borders following Azerbaijan’s retaking of control of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region last year. As reported by TCA last week, in a statement President Tokayev “welcome[d] the agreement between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia to hold talks at the Foreign Ministers’ level on the preparation of a peace treaty between the two states, at the suggestion of the Kazakh side.” Tokayev went on to express his hope the upcoming meeting would help with the “practical implementation” of agreements between the two sides.