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Middle Corridor

Opinion: A New Southern Gate – How the EU-Armenia Summit Unlocks a Critical Branch for the Middle Corridor

For the first time in its history, the European Union held a full summit with Armenia. The meeting, which took place in Yerevan on 4–5 May 2026, was not merely a diplomatic milestone for Armenia. It also sent a signal to governments thousands of kilometers away in Central Asia that the trade route linking Asia to Europe through the South Caucasus is becoming more real, and more politically backed, than ever before. The centerpiece of the summit saw the signing of a “Connectivity Partnership” between Brussels and Yerevan. The European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, described Armenia as "uniquely positioned" to connect Europe with the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Under the EU's Global Gateway program, investments in Armenia are expected to reach €2.5 billion. A further €3 billion is earmarked specifically for the Middle Corridor – the trade route that runs from China across Central Asia, over the Caspian Sea, through the South Caucasus, and into Europe. “We will support your integration into key transport networks like the Trans-Caspian Corridor. It is a route that is also of strategic importance for Europe, given the growing flows of trade between our two regions,” von der Leyen stated. A Route That Is Already Moving Fast The Middle Corridor, formally known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), has grown at a pace that few predicted. Cargo volumes rose 70 percent in the first nine months of 2024 alone, reaching 3.4 million tons. By the end of that year, the total had climbed to 4.1 million tons – up from just 350,000 tons in 2021. The World Bank projects that the route could handle up to 11 million tonnes a year by 2030. It's important to maintain some perspective. These numbers are small fry when compared to the billions of tons of trade that moves between Europe and Asia by sea. However, the Middle Corridor does offer important diversification, particularly given the spillover effects of wars in the Middle East and piracy in the Red Sea. [caption id="attachment_48602" align="aligncenter" width="1274"] Image: Trans Caspian International Transport Route and it’s southern part, China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway project. Source: middlecorridor.com[/caption] Where Uzbekistan Stands For Uzbekistan, the Middle Corridor is both an opportunity and a work in progress. In January 2025, President Mirziyoyev signed a decree to upgrade road and rail connectivity, and in September 2024, Tashkent co-founded the Eurasian Transport Route Association alongside Austria, Azerbaijan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkey. In December 2024, Uzbekistan sent its first block train all the way to Brazil – through Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and the Georgian port of Poti – proving the route is operationally viable. But costs remain a challenge. Shipping a 40-foot container via the Middle Corridor currently costs between $3,500 and $4,500, compared to $2,800–$3,200 on the Northern Corridor through Russia. Europe, meanwhile, accounts for only around 3 percent of Uzbekistan's exports and 13 percent of its imports — a share that Tashkent wants to grow significantly. The China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan (CKU) railway — a $8 billion, 573-kilometre project whose...

Geopolitics

European Summit in Yerevan Sends a Signal to Central Asia

The 8th European Political Community summit in Yerevan highlighted deepening geopolitical fault lines while signaling that some post-Soviet countries, notably Azerbaijan and Armenia, are gradually shifting their geopolitical orientation away from Moscow. It is a realignment that Central Asian states are watching with increasing interest. On May 4, attention across post-Soviet space, from Russia and Belarus to Central Asia and the South Caucasus, turned toward Yerevan. Armenia, still a member of the Commonwealth of Independent States and the Eurasian Economic Union and formally tied to the Collective Security Treaty Organization despite freezing its participation, hosted Europe’s political leadership. Among those attending were French President Emmanuel Macron, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President António Costa, and prime ministers including Donald Tusk, Keir Starmer, and Petteri Orpo. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev participated via video link. No Central Asian leaders attended the summit. Even so, the gathering carried a message for the region. Armenia hosted Europe’s political leadership while remaining tied to Moscow-led structures, including the CIS and the Eurasian Economic Union. For Central Asian governments pursuing their own multi-vector policies, the summit showed how a post-Soviet state can widen its diplomatic options without a clean break from Russia. The parallel is not exact, but it is visible. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan remain in the Eurasian Economic Union, while Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan remain in the CSTO. All five Central Asian states maintain working ties with Moscow, while expanding contacts with the EU, Turkey, China, and the Gulf, part of a wider effort to diversify foreign policy options through closer engagement with Europe and other outside powers. Turkey was represented by Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz, the highest-level Turkish official to visit Armenia since then-President Abdullah Gül in 2008. Turkey and Azerbaijan largely positioned themselves as counterweights to the dominant European framing, marking one of the summit’s key geopolitical divides. Aliyev adopted a confrontational tone, announcing a suspension of relations with the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe and the European Parliament. “Instead of addressing fundamental problems of some member states, such as xenophobia, Islamophobia, antisemitism, migration, competitiveness, and homelessness, the European Parliament targets Azerbaijan, spreading slander and lies,” Aliyev said. “And the reason is that Azerbaijan restored its territorial integrity and sovereignty, put an end to separatism, and brought war criminals to justice.” In response, António Costa sought to soften tensions, emphasizing the summit’s historical significance as the first of its kind held in the South Caucasus and highlighting Aliyev’s participation as a symbol of peace efforts in the region. Cevdet Yilmaz focused on bilateral diplomacy, meeting Romanian President Nicușor Dan to discuss trade, regional issues, and global challenges. He also held talks with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, the summit’s host. The two sides signed a memorandum of understanding on the joint restoration of the historic Ani Bridge, located on the border between the two countries and dating back to the 11th century. Yilmaz suggested that Armenia would benefit from closer alignment with Turkey...

Middle Corridor

Kazakhstan Looks to Armenia for a Future Middle Corridor Branch

Kazakhstan’s deepening engagement with Armenia has made TRIPP, part of the Armenia–Azerbaijan peace formula, a practical question for the Middle Corridor. The Armenia–U.S. implementation framework published in January presents the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) as a project for unimpeded, multimodal transit connectivity on Armenian territory. The means for its realization remain under discussion. TRIPP has thus become relevant to Kazakhstan, even though Astana is not a direct party to the prospective Armenia–Azerbaijan settlement. Recent Kazakhstani diplomacy with Baku and Tbilisi has confirmed that the existing Azerbaijan–Georgia route remains the operative western channel of the Middle Corridor. A route through Armenia would not replace the Azerbaijan–Georgia line; it would widen the Middle Corridor’s western options. If constructed, it would link the main body of Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan and open new transit opportunities from Central Asia and the Caspian to Europe. Astana Brings Yerevan into the Route System Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan visited Astana in November 2025. His talks with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev emphasized economic sectors, including trade, infrastructure, transport, agriculture, and air transport, together with humanitarian sectors such as education and culture. The official Armenian account also recorded the leaders’ interest in unblocking regional communications, importing wheat from Kazakhstan to Armenia by rail, and bringing TRIPP to life. Tokayev described the first shipment of Kazakhstani wheat reaching Armenia through Azerbaijan as having both political and economic significance. The cargo moved along existing lines, through Russia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. Astana’s April 2026 Regional Ecological Summit showed the same regional widening from another angle: it brought Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia into a forum that connected environmental pressure with economic security and regional cooperation. The Kazakhstan–Armenia agenda has since become more specific. Foreign Minister Yermek Kosherbayev visited Yerevan as part of an official delegation earlier this month. Kosherbayev’s presence gave the visit added weight, bringing recent cabinet experience and a record on politically sensitive regional issues rather than merely protocol standing. His talks with Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan on April 8 extended the discussion to a broader institutional basis, including the bilateral Intergovernmental Commission and the Kazakhstan–Armenia Business Council. The two parties agreed that transit and logistics interconnectivity create new opportunities for market integration between Central Asia and the South Caucasus. The talks did more than raise the bilateral profile. They brought Armenia closer to the network already carrying Kazakhstan’s westbound trade. Regional connectivity received more detailed treatment on April 9, when Kosherbayev met with Pashinyan to discuss transport, transit, and trade within the 2026–2030 Roadmap for Trade and Economic Cooperation. Kosherbayev also reaffirmed Kazakhstan’s interest in long-term agricultural exports, especially grain and meat, and informed the Armenian side about measures to establish regular direct air connections. These meetings showed Astana and Yerevan moving toward the same practical premise: Armenia may become part of the wider route system. TRIPP Becomes a Middle Corridor Question Azerbaijan has completed infrastructure up to the Armenian border, but TRIPP has not yet begun construction through Armenia itself. It remains tied to the Armenia–Azerbaijan...

Regional Ecological Summit

Armenian President Delivers Speech at Astana Summit, Emphasizing Climate Action and Biodiversity

Astana, Kazakhstan – Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturyan addressed the Regional Ecological Summit (RES 2026) today, speaking about the urgent challenges of climate change, biodiversity loss, and the need for strengthened international cooperation. The summit, themed “Shared Vision for a Resilient Future,” opened its sessions on Earth Day under the patronage of Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. In his remarks, President Khachaturyan expressed deep gratitude to his Kazakh counterpart, the government, and the people of Kazakhstan for their warm hospitality and the excellent organization of this important event. “It is an honor to address the Regional Ecological Summit in Astana,” he stated. He praised Kazakhstan’s leadership in advancing global and regional cooperation on climate change and environmental protection, describing the event as an important platform for dialogue bringing together governments, the scientific community, civil society, and international partners. [caption id="attachment_47661" align="alignnone" width="300"] President Vahagn Khachaturyan gives address at the Regional Ecological Summit in Astana; Image: TCA[/caption] Highlighting Armenia’s unique vulnerabilities, the President noted that, as a landlocked, developing, and mountainous nation, Armenia is already experiencing severe effects of climate change despite contributing just 0.02% of global greenhouse gas emissions. “Over the past decades, the average temperature in the country has increased by more than one degree Celsius and is projected to continue rising by mid-century,” he said. These changes have triggered more frequent extreme weather events, including floods and droughts, leading to significant ecological losses, declining precipitation, glacier retreat, and growing water scarcity — particularly affecting rural communities and mountain ecosystems. President Khachaturyan welcomed Kazakhstan’s initiative to convene international consultations on strengthening cooperation for effective water resource management and said Armenia will actively participate. On the climate front, he reaffirmed Armenia’s ambitious nationally determined contributions (NDCs): a 44% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 compared to 1990 levels through domestic measures, rising to 52% with international support. “Armenia undertakes these commitments with full awareness of its national capacity and the importance of international cooperation,” he emphasized, citing the principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities. Turning to biodiversity, the President stressed that rising temperatures are a major driver of biodiversity loss, with profound consequences for ecosystems, human health, food security, and economies worldwide. He announced that Armenia will host the 17th Conference of the Parties (COP17) to the Convention on Biological Diversity in Yerevan in October later this year. “These efforts reflect our small country’s strong commitment to promote global nature conservation,” Khachaturyan declared, inviting all participants to join the landmark gathering “to review our progress and identify ways to accelerate efforts to restore and protect the environment for present and future generations.” The Armenian President concluded by underscoring the critical role of international cooperation, including the mobilization of financial resources, sharing of expertise, and the transfer of technology. “Armenia stands ready to cooperate with regional and international partners, to share our experience and to learn from others,” he said. “Together, we can protect our planet Earth, ensure long-term resilience and well-being for our societies.” President Khachaturyan’s address highlights Armenia’s...

CSTO

CSTO Faces Uncertain Future as Putin Champions Russian Arms

The session of the CSTO Collective Security Council on November 27 in Bishkek underscored a key reality: the bloc, once envisioned as the “Eurasian response to NATO,” now consists of just five active members. Armenia pointedly boycotted the summit, a gesture that spoke volumes about the alliance’s internal fractures. While the presidents of Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan discussed “multipolarity” and “security,” Kyrgyz authorities erected a massive LED screen near the presidential residence, conveniently blocking the Ukrainian flag atop the Ukrainian embassy. Officials claimed the move was a “protocol requirement.” Moscow used the summit as a platform to outline its long-term strategic goals for the region, seizing the moment amid Armenia’s absence, growing debate over the CSTO’s purpose, and rising competition from other international security alliances in Eurasia. Yerevan’s decision to skip the gathering is a warning sign for fellow CSTO members. Armenia, having faced a real security crisis, evidently no longer views the alliance as a reliable guarantor. This casts doubt on the CSTO’s ability to adapt to a rapidly evolving regional security landscape, where flexibility, responsiveness, and tangible conflict support are increasingly in demand. In his report, CSTO Secretary General Imangali Tasmagambetov emphasized the bloc’s institutional development over the past three years, expanding collective forces, developing cyber capabilities, and establishing new international roadmaps. He also announced the creation of an Information and Analytical Department, signaling an effort to emulate more sophisticated military-political structures. Yet much of his address echoed the standard talking points delivered at previous summits. Tasmagambetov did address Armenia's absence, stating, “The CSTO respects Yerevan’s sovereign right.” Rather than defusing the issue, this acknowledgment only served to highlight the political rupture. Despite the tensions, CSTO leaders signed a broad set of documents, including a collective security strategy, an anti-drug initiative, and new military cooperation plans, reportedly one of the most comprehensive packages in recent years. Nonetheless, the summit’s spotlight belonged to Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko. The other leaders appeared relegated to the sidelines, affirming declarations to preserve a fragile collective consensus. Putin’s visit to Bishkek spanned two days, during which his pronouncements effectively became the summit’s agenda. He reiterated that the CSTO is a “guarantor of stability” and proposed equipping the bloc’s collective forces with Russian weapons “proven in combat conditions”, a clear reference to the war in Ukraine, though left deliberately vague. With Russia set to assume the CSTO chairmanship in 2026, the Kremlin appears to be steering the alliance toward deeper military-technical integration. Promoting its weapons to member states not only boosts Russia’s arms industry but also increases CSTO members’ reliance on Russian technologies and command systems. Some analysts suggest Moscow’s chairmanship priorities, from cybersecurity to aerospace defense, reflect an effort to position the CSTO as a counterweight to rival military-political blocs. President Lukashenko of Belarus added a European security dimension to the talks, citing NATO’s growing defense budgets and the military buildup in Poland, Germany, and the Baltic states as justification for reinforcing the CSTO. For Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, the...

Strategic Partnership

Kazakhstan and Armenia Forge Strategic Partnership in Landmark Summit

Kazakhstan and Armenia have upgraded their relations to a strategic partnership after high-level talks between President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Astana on 21 November. The decision was sealed in a joint statement and framed as the start of a new phase in cooperation between the two Eurasian partners. During the official visit, the two sides exchanged 15 intergovernmental and interagency documents. These cover the protection of classified information, land for diplomatic missions, a trade and economic roadmap for 2026–2030, and cooperation in industry, agriculture, healthcare, science, education, digitalization, and the peaceful use of atomic energy, as well as new links between national museums, libraries, and film institutions. A Kazakhstan–Armenia Business Council was also created to bring companies into the process. Tokayev underlined the political meaning of the upgrade, stating that an “open and trusting political dialogue has been established between Astana and Yerevan at all levels. Interstate ties are truly constructive, with significant potential for their comprehensive strengthening and expansion.” Pashinyan, meanwhile, stressed the human dimension, noting that “we respect the Kazakh people, and this respect is the foundation for the further development of bilateral relations.” Their meeting builds on Tokayev’s official visit to Yerevan in April 2024, when the two governments first drew a roadmap for closer ties. Symbolism played a significant role in the visit, with Tokayev awarding Pashinyan the Order of Altyn Qyran (Golden Eagle), Kazakhstan’s highest state honor, in recognition of his role in Armenia’s development, regional peace efforts, and bilateral relations. This year, Yerevan has hosted the Days of Kazakhstan Culture and opened a park named after the Kazakh poet, Abai, while Kazakhstan has promoted Armenia’s cultural presence at events and academic centers, helping anchor the relationship beyond government channels. [caption id="attachment_39747" align="aligncenter" width="900"] Image: Akorda.kz[/caption] The strategic label is the high point of more than three decades of diplomatic relations. Armenia and Kazakhstan first established ties in August 1992, and shortly opened embassies in each other’s capitals. A Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation was signed in Astana in September 1999. Both are members of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which lends their interaction a dense multilateral framework. Now, trade and connectivity are catching up with political rhetoric, with both sides eyeing room to expand. According to Armenia’s economy minister, bilateral trade reached $104 million in 2023, up 2.4 times from 2020, with Armenian exports making up more than two-thirds of the total. Kazakh figures, meanwhile, show mutual trade rising but still at a modest $53.1 million by the end of 2023, partly due to the lack of rail links and past transit restrictions in the South Caucasus. Those obstacles, however, are beginning to ease. In October, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev lifted restrictions on transit to Armenia, which allowed the first shipment of 1,000 tons of Kazakh wheat to reach Armenian markets via Azerbaijani territory in November. Kazakhstan and Armenia also plan to launch direct air links and expand air cargo, a step Tokayev has called...