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Middle Powers

Which Central Asian States Qualify as Middle Powers in 2025?

As global power shifts toward multipolarity, Central Asia’s states are emerging as active regional players. This article assesses which of the five republics—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—qualify as middle powers in 2025, based on economic strength, diplomatic reach, strategic capacity, and governance. Kazakhstan stands as the region’s only consolidated middle power, balancing fiscal stability, institutional reform, and multi-vector diplomacy. Uzbekistan is a rising aspirant, propelled by reforms but still reliant on external financing and centralized authority. The remaining states remain constrained by dependence and limited institutional depth. Together, they reflect a region increasingly capable of shaping, rather than merely absorbing, global and regional change. A comparative analysis of five Central Asian republics shows how far each has advanced toward this status. 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This article assesses which of the five republics—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—qualify as middle powers in 2025, based on economic strength, diplomatic reach, strategic capacity, and governance. Kazakhstan stands as the region’s only consolidated middle power, balancing fiscal stability, institutional reform, and multi-vector diplomacy. Uzbekistan is a rising aspirant, propelled by reforms but still reliant on external financing and centralized authority. The remaining states remain constrained by dependence and limited institutional depth. Together, they reflect a region increasingly capable of shaping, rather than merely absorbing, global and regional change. A comparative analysis of five Central Asian republics shows how far each has advanced toward this status. Economic Power Economic autonomy is a defining attribute of middle-power capability, enabling states to project influence, sustain policy independence, and finance external engagement. In Central Asia, dependence on Official Development Assistance (ODA) and remittances often reflects constrained fiscal capacity and limited domestic capital formation, while diversified, resilient economies underpin strategic autonomy. Key indicators—GDP per capita, credit ratings, debt sustainability, and export diversification—illuminate the region’s economic hierarchy. Kazakhstan stands as Central Asia’s only consolidated economic middle power. Resource-backed growth, a prudent fiscal regime, and a sovereign wealth fund (the National Fund of Kazakhstan) have anchored macroeconomic stability. With a “BBB” credit rating or equivalent from major agencies, Kazakhstan demonstrates sound debt management and policy credibility. Ongoing diversification efforts under the new economic policies—from renewables to financial modernization—aim to reduce hydrocarbon dependence and deepen integration into global supply chains. Its role as a trans-Caspian logistics hub enhances both strategic and commercial influence. Uzbekistan, by contrast, is an emerging frontier market propelled by post-2017 reforms in currency liberalization, taxation, and state-enterprise restructuring. Rapid GDP growth and expanding private-sector activity mark its trajectory toward fiscal autonomy, though continued ODA inflows averaging around $1.1 billion to 1.3 billion annually, primarily from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the World Bank, and bilateral partners such as Japan, the United States, and the European Union, highlight its residual dependence on external concessional financing. To achieve genuine middle power status, Uzbekistan must roughly double its real economic output over the next decade, a scale of growth aligned with the shift...

Aviation

What’s Holding Back Kazakhstan’s Air Transport Market?

Kazakhstan’s aviation industry has posted steady growth in recent years. Over the past four years, passenger and cargo traffic have risen by more than 36% and 23% respectively, with an actively expanding route network. The state’s aviation development strategy prioritizes infrastructure upgrades, improved safety standards, and expanded international cooperation. Yet, despite these advances, several systemic barriers continue to prevent Kazakhstan from realizing its potential as a Central Asian aviation hub. These challenges were discussed at the New Silk Way International Transport and Logistics Business Forum and the annual TransLogistica Kazakhstan 2025 exhibition. Experts agree that Kazakhstan’s air transport market ranks among the fastest-growing globally, driven in part by geopolitical shifts that have boosted the volume of Chinese and European transit flights through its airspace. Industry Trends and Infrastructure Expansion A major airport modernization effort is underway, targeting key cities such as Astana, Almaty, Aktobe, Shymkent, and Karaganda. Renovations have already been completed in Aktau, Pavlodar, and Balkhash, while new terminals have opened in Almaty, Kyzylorda, and Shymkent. New airports are under construction in Kenderli, Zaisan, Katon-Karagai, and Arkalyk. Total investment in infrastructure has exceeded $2.9 billion. According to the Civil Aviation Committee, in 2025, Kazakh airlines transported a record 15 million passengers and 171,000 tons of cargo. Transit flights accounted for 414 million aircraft-kilometers. Deputy Chairman Sarsen Zharylgasov has stated that the country now operates 56 domestic routes, up 9% year-on-year, and maintains air links with 30 countries. International Routes and Regional Competition In 2025, 33 new international routes were launched, connecting Kazakhstan to cities including Budapest, Munich, Cairo, Shanghai, Phuket, and Delhi. Currently, 140 international routes operate under the Open Skies policy, which has applied to 15 airports since 2019. Looking ahead to 2026, new routes are planned to major global hubs, such as Singapore, Tokyo, Rome, Vienna, and New York. The long-anticipated direct U.S. flight hinges on a successful completion of the FAA's CAT-1 audit, following Kazakhstan’s passage of the preliminary technical assessment in August 2024. The 2022 air transport agreement between the U.S. and Kazakhstan remains a key step toward this goal. Air Astana plans to operate the route using a Boeing 787 Dreamliner, though delivery has been delayed to Q2 2026 due to production backlogs. Meanwhile, Uzbekistan is ramping up its own ambitions. During President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s 2025 visit to the US, Tashkent signed a deal with Boeing for 22 Dreamliners. Analysts suggest this could intensify regional competition and enhance Uzbekistan’s appeal as a transit hub. Airport Bottlenecks and Tariff Issues Despite progress in large cities, many regional airports remain hampered by chronic underinvestment and outdated tariff policies. According to Zharylgasov, tariffs at several airports have not been updated in over two decades. “We are working to completely deregulate tariffs, but the Agency for the Protection and Development of Competition does not yet support us,” he noted. Eliminating state control over airport tariffs could introduce market-based pricing, attract investors, and improve profitability, particularly for regional hubs. Digitalization Drives Efficiency Digital transformation is another key priority. Kazakhstan...

Aviation

Uzbekistan Signs $5.9 Billion Deal to Build Central Asia’s First Green Aviation Fuel Plant

Allied Biofuels FE LLC Uzbekistan has signed key land and water agreements with the Khorezm regional government, marking a significant step toward building Central Asia’s first integrated biorefinery for zero-carbon aviation fuel. The announcement was made during the International Investment Forum in Khiva, where Khorezm Governor Jurabek Rakhimov met with a company delegation led by Chairman and Managing Director Alfred Benedict. The $5.9 billion project will be located in Tuproqqal’a district in the city of Khorezm, and aims to establish a climate-aligned aviation fuel supply chain in Uzbekistan. Once operational, the facility is expected to produce 382,000 tonnes of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), 152,000 tonnes of Electro-Synthetic SAF (e-SAF), and 11,000 tonnes of renewable green diesel annually. The refinery will be supported by 2 GW of PEM electrolysers, making it one of the largest initiatives of its kind in the region. Benedict described the agreements as “a landmark moment for Allied Biofuels and for Khorezm,” emphasizing that the project combines international expertise with local support to help Uzbekistan achieve its net-zero emissions target by 2030. “This facility will not only supply sustainable aviation fuel at scale but also foster economic growth in the region,” he said. Uzbekistan has committed to becoming carbon-neutral by the end of the decade, and the Khorezm biorefinery is expected to play a central role in that transition. By producing zero-carbon fuels for transport and industry, the project aims to reduce fossil fuel dependency and lower greenhouse gas emissions. Rakhimov welcomed the decision to site the project in Khorezm, highlighting its significance for regional development. He stated that the initiative will create hundreds of skilled jobs, strengthen Khorezm’s position as a hub for green energy, and boost the local economy. Rakhimov also pledged to personally oversee the allocation of land and infrastructure needed to ensure successful implementation.

Air Transport

Uzbekistan Airways Refutes Near-Collision Reports in Russian Airspace

Uzbekistan Airways has denied claims that one of its aircraft was involved in a near-collision with a private jet in Russian airspace, describing the reports inaccurate and misleading. The airline issued a statement in response to tabloid coverage in Russia alleging a serious aviation incident near Moscow’s Vnukovo International Airport. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, the incident allegedly occurred shortly after midnight on September 29 near Serpukhov, south of Moscow. Early accounts indicated that an Uzbekistan Airways Airbus A320 en route from Samarkand and an Embraer Legacy 650 business jet flying from Bodrum came within three kilometers horizontally and 700 feet vertically of each other—below international safety thresholds—due to a miscommunication over altitude clearance. Uzbekistan Airways has firmly rejected this version of events. In a statement from its press service, the airline stressed that its crew fully complied with all instructions from Moscow air traffic control and did not breach any flight regulations. “All altitude levels were maintained in accordance with the established rules and procedures, and the required separation between aircraft was preserved,” the statement read. The airline also clarified that the flight in question occurred on September 28, not September 29 as initially reported. It added that the aircraft’s onboard safety systems did not issue any alerts, and Moscow’s air traffic controllers made no objections or complaints about the crew’s actions. Uzbekistan Airways criticized several Russian media outlets for publishing what it described as unverified information, which was later reprinted by some Uzbek outlets without proper verification. “This created a misleading impression among readers,” the airline said. Reaffirming its commitment to international aviation standards, the company stated that flight safety remains its highest priority and that all crews operate in strict compliance with air traffic control instructions.

Aviation

Kyrgyzstan Says It’s Close to Being Removed from EU Flight Ban

A delegation from Kyrgyzstan’s Civil Aviation Agency will meet European officials in Brussels next month, marking another step in the campaign to end a two-decade ban on Kyrgyz airlines operating in the European Union because of safety concerns. The October 7 meeting will be followed by a final European audit in December as Kyrgyzstan moves into the last stage of being removed from the EU’s so-called “blacklist” of air carriers, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov said last week during the re-opening of two of the country’s airports, Naryn and Kazarman. "Thus, we firmly believe that the European skies, which have been closed since 2006, will reopen for Kyrgyzstan,” said Japarov, who predicted that the possible removal of the ban would boost international tourism in the Central Asian country. Kanat Tologonov, deputy director of Kyrgyzstan’s Civil Aviation Agency, said this week that European officials will decide on whether to lift the air ban on Kyrgyzstan in May 2026, according to the 24.kg news agency. Speaking to a parliamentary committee on budget and fiscal policy, Tologonov said Kyrgyzstan successfully passed 2023-2024 audits of the International Civil Aviation Organization, a U.N. agency that oversees safety and other aspects of air travel. As Kyrgyzstan’s bid to regain access to EU skies gains momentum, civil aviation chief Daniyar Bostonov met representatives of the International Air Transport Association this week to discuss upgrading air navigation and the digitization of passenger and air cargo transportation. The EU Air Safety List is a list of air carriers that it says do not fulfil international safety standards and it bars those airlines “from operating to, in and from the EU, including the overflight.” Sixteen carriers from Kyrgyzstan are on the list, out of a total of 169 banned airlines, according to a June update. The EU barred Kyrgyzstan because of inadequate regulation in the aviation sector and failure to comply with international safety standards. Civil aviation has been developing in some other parts of Central Asia, including Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.

Bilateral Relations

Uzbekistan and United States Leaders Discuss Expanding Strategic Partnership

According to the office of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, the Uzbek and U.S. presidents held a telephone conversation on Friday, focusing on ways to deepen their countries’ strategic partnership across economic, security, and cultural fields. The details of the call were provided by the Uzbek president’s office. Strengthening Economic Ties The presidential office reported that both leaders emphasized opportunities to expand trade and investment. Bilateral trade grew by 15% in 2024, and the two sides signaled interest in building on that momentum. Prospective projects span civil aviation, mineral resources, energy, agriculture, digital technologies, finance, and education. Later this month, meetings are expected between Uzbek representatives and leading U.S. companies to explore long-term cooperation. Security and Regional Cooperation According to the statement, security issues also featured prominently in the conversation. The two presidents noted ongoing joint work against terrorism, extremism, and illegal migration. They also exchanged views on regional cooperation in Central Asia, highlighting the role of the “C5+1” dialogue format that brings together the United States and five Central Asian countries. Cultural and Humanitarian Exchanges The Uzbek president’s office noted that the discussion touched on expanding cultural and educational links. Branches of U.S. universities are operating in Tashkent, providing new opportunities for academic exchange. Looking ahead, the leaders noted with satisfaction that Uzbekistan’s national football team will participate for the first time in the 2026 World Cup, which the United States will be the main host of. A Growing Partnership Since Mirziyoyev assumed the presidency in 2016, Uzbekistan has pursued a more open foreign policy and a program of internal reforms aimed at modernizing the economy and improving governance. These changes have created new opportunities for cooperation with Washington. The United States, for its part, has supported regional initiatives through the C5+1 framework, while also seeking closer ties with Tashkent in areas such as counterterrorism, economic development, and education. American universities and companies have increased their presence in Uzbekistan, and cultural exchanges have expanded steadily in recent years. Next Steps The president’s office stated that President Mirziyoyev invited President Trump to pay an official visit to Uzbekistan. Both leaders agreed to maintain high-level contacts and continue advancing joint projects and programs. According to the Uzbek president’s office, the conversation was held in a constructive and friendly atmosphere, underscoring a shared interest in further strengthening Uzbek-American relations.