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Kazakhstan-Turkey Partnership

Kazakhstan and Turkey Tighten Ties Amid Shifting Caspian Dynamics

Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev arrived in Turkey on an official visit late on Monday, where he held talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The two leaders went on to co-chair the fifth meeting of the Kazakhstan–Turkey High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council. Coming amid heightened tensions in the Caspian region, particularly between Russia and Azerbaijan, the trip appears aimed at recalibrating regional dynamics, though analysts say its full implications remain unclear. Tokayev’s visit ended on a ceremonial high, as Erdoğan bestowed upon him the Devlet Nişanı, Turkey’s highest state honor. Accepting the award, Tokayev — who noted he had previously declined both domestic and foreign distinctions — thanked the Turkish president and people, highlighting Kazakhstan’s political and economic achievements. Erdoğan, in turn, praised Kazakhstan as the “center of peace and stability in its region.” Yet with Kazakhstan straddling both Central Asia and the Caspian basin — each a strategic priority for Ankara — it remains unclear which “region” Erdoğan had in mind. Much of the visit, however, played out behind closed doors. The official press release offered only general statements and few specifics. But the images released were polished and plentiful. Ahead of the summit, Tokayev met with prominent Turkish business leaders already active in Kazakhstan or planning future investments in the country’s economy. Political analyst Adil Kaukenov, a China specialist, weighed in on Tokayev’s business meetings via his Telegram channel, stating that the main topics were processing and logistics. His colleague Daniyar Ashimbayev, meanwhile, interpreted the visit as evidence that Astana is pursuing the foreign policy course it deems necessary. “I have already written about the logistical and geopolitical rivalry between Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Asia Minor,” Ashimbayev observed. “A strange situation even arose when Kazakhstan signed one agreement on the Trans-Afghan Highway with Kabul, and Tashkent signed another. Or the constant discussion between Tashkent and Baku on the development of the Trans-Caspian corridor without the participation of Ashgabat and Astana. Tensions have risen in relations between Baku and Moscow, which could jeopardize Caspian logistics. Against this backdrop, the Kazakh authorities are methodically pushing through their agenda.” Ashimbayev also recalled Kazakhstan’s recent diplomatic successes, such as securing EU sanctions exemptions for agricultural and coal exports. “In this regard, Tokayev’s trip to Ankara was intended to resolve possible contradictions and misunderstandings in bilateral relations,” Ashimbayev concluded. While official sources emphasized economic and cultural-humanitarian cooperation as the main themes of the visit, Ashimbayev hinted that more sensitive topics may have been discussed privately. “The Turkish release mentions that the parties discussed defense issues, while the Kazakh release says they talked about IT,” he noted. “But by and large, the meaning of the talks is that both leaders calmly sorted out mutual issues, with no one acting as a supplicant or ‘vassal’ (as is sometimes the case at similar meetings). Kazakhstan methodically focused on the issues of interest to it and correctly discussed the issues raised by the host of the summit.” A closer analysis of publications on Akorda, the Kazakh presidential...

Caspian Sea

Kazakhstan PM Urges Joint Action to Save the Caspian Sea

Kazakh Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov has urged the five Caspian littoral states to coordinate efforts in response to the steadily declining water levels of the Caspian Sea, describing it as one of the region’s most pressing environmental threats. Speaking at the inaugural International Environmental Conference in Manzherok, Russia, Bektenov emphasized the urgency of a collective response. “Since the early 2000s, the water level in the Caspian Sea has been steadily declining. To study this and other challenges, Kazakhstan has established the Caspian Sea Research Institute. Scientists’ forecasts are alarming. We need decisive joint measures,” Bektenov stated, according to his press service. The Caspian Sea is bordered by Kazakhstan, Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, the sea’s water level dropped to less than 29 meters below sea level by summer 2025, a historic low. The northern Caspian, which borders Kazakhstan and Russia, is experiencing the most rapid desiccation. In addition to the Caspian issue, Bektenov addressed other major environmental concerns. He highlighted Kazakhstan’s work in the Aral Sea region, where the country currently chairs the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea. Key priorities include reinforcing the Kokaral Dam, restoring the Syr Darya delta, revitalizing the fishing industry, and reforesting the dried seabed. Kazakhstan is also establishing a saxaul nursery on the desiccated Aral seabed to produce 1.5 million seedlings annually. The goal is to cover up to 40% of Kazakhstan’s portion of the former sea with saxaul forests. Bektenov also underscored the growing threat of glacier melt. Experts warn that Central Asia’s glaciers could shrink significantly by 2100. The UNESCO Central Asian Regional Glaciological Center, based in Almaty, is already serving as a key platform for research and monitoring. Kazakhstan, he added, is ready to implement joint hydrotechnical initiatives, including reservoir regulation and the introduction of automated water accounting systems. Bektenov concluded by noting the symbolic importance of the forum’s location in the Altai region, often regarded as the cradle of Turkic civilization and a cornerstone of cultural and humanitarian cooperation.

Caspian Sea

Opinion: A Sea of Discord? Intensifying Military Drills Threaten Stability in the Caspian Region

On Monday, Russia and Iran launched joint military exercises in the Caspian Sea under the banner “Together for a Safe and Secure Caspian Sea.” Officially, the drills aim to enhance maritime security and naval cooperation between the two countries and are being coordinated by Iran’s Northern Fleet. While such exercises might once have passed without much notice, their timing and frequency reflect a shifting dynamic: the Caspian region is rapidly emerging as a potential hotspot in global geopolitics. Just one month prior, the same waters hosted joint military exercises between Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, held in Aktau, western Kazakhstan. These were followed by the “Tarlan-2025” air and tactical drills in Azerbaijan from July 8-10, which focused on enhancing UAV operations and military coordination. Baku’s strategic alliance with Ankara is a key factor here. Azerbaijan, a close Turkish partner, is now engaged in a more strained relationship with Russia. Moscow’s muted reaction to this cooling suggests an awareness that Ankara is increasingly shaping a Turkic military-political bloc, an emerging force in a region of strategic importance to both Russia and China. Earlier this month, Turkey launched its annual Anadolu-2025 special forces exercises. Participants included troops from 33 nations, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and others but notably excluded Russia. For the first time, in 2024, military exercises were held in the Caspian without Russian involvement. The Birleistik (Unity) 2024 drills were conducted at Kazakhstan’s Oymasha training ground and Cape Tokmak along the Caspian coast. Troops from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan rehearsed scenarios including conflict zone identification, night maritime operations, and amphibious landings. Previously, regional military cooperation had been limited to bilateral engagements, such as the 2023 UZAZ exercises (Azerbaijan-Uzbekistan), Kanzhar-2023 (Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan), and Hazri-2023 (Azerbaijan-Kazakhstan). The spike in joint drills during 2024-2025 underscores growing rivalries between regional and global powers. These operations are not mere formalities but reveal emerging security alignments and geopolitical signals. Three distinct blocs appear to be coalescing in the Caspian, with implications for Central Asia as well. The first bloc includes Russia, Iran, and China. These nations have held annual “Maritime Security Belt” exercises since 2019, with the most recent in March 2025 off the Iranian coast. The second bloc comprises Turkey, Azerbaijan, and members of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS). Defense ties among these countries are becoming a core element of OTS cooperation. At the 10th OTS Summit in Astana in 2023, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev emphasized defense as the main guarantor of member state security, citing ongoing regional conflicts and violations of international law. The third bloc, more pragmatic and focused, is the Kazakhstan-Azerbaijan partnership. These countries are cooperating on the basis of the 2018 Caspian Convention to secure maritime communications. Azerbaijan contributes military expertise, particularly in UAV and drone warfare developed during the Karabakh conflicts. Kazakhstan brings diplomatic credibility and promotes regional governance and connectivity, offering a stabilizing complement to Azerbaijan’s military strengths. In sum, the Caspian Sea, once colloquially referred to as “Russia’s lake”, is steadily losing that identity. It is transforming into...

Caspian Sea

The Caspian Sea Hits Historic Low

The Caspian Sea has dropped to its lowest recorded level, now sitting at less than 29 meters below sea level. The northern basin, bordering Russia and Kazakhstan, is shrinking particularly rapidly. As the water recedes, the exposed seabed is threatening key marine ecosystems. Experts warn the decline is already causing serious disruption to biodiversity in the region. Declining Volga Flow and Climate Change The downward trend in sea levels began in the 1990s and has accelerated since 2020, with a nearly 80-centimeter drop in the past four years. The primary factor is a decrease in the annual flow of the Volga River, which supplies approximately 80% of the Caspian's inflow and contributes 64% to the lake's total water balance. In recent years, the Volga’s annual discharge has ranged between 210 and 232 cubic kilometers, well below the historical average of around 250 cubic kilometers. At the same time, rising air temperatures are increasing evaporation rates, further depleting water levels. Scientists link these changes to global climate change and the ongoing rise in greenhouse gas emissions. Ecological and Economic Impact Human activity is compounding the problem. Significant water extraction from rivers for agriculture, industry, and municipal use is reducing the volume of water reaching the sea. Russia’s Ministry of Natural Resources is currently developing a comprehensive program to adapt to these shifting environmental conditions. The initiative aims to enhance forecasting, mitigate the consequences of shallowing, and adjust economic activities to reflect the new hydrological realities. Experts suggest that only a sustained annual inflow of around 270 cubic kilometers, comparable to levels recorded in the 1970s and 1990s, can halt the lake's ongoing decline. Changing Coastlines and Public Concern A recent video by Kazakh filmmaker Adai Myrzatay has stirred widespread attention on social media. The footage juxtaposes images of the Caspian coastline in 2013 and 2025. Twelve years ago, the pier was surrounded by open water and untouched shoreline. Today, the water has receded dramatically. Bushes now encircle the pier, and high-rise buildings stand where the shoreline once lay. The video has been viewed over 1.5 million times. The falling water level is leading to the loss of biological diversity and shrinking spawning grounds for species such as the Caspian seal and sturgeon. The shallowing is also disrupting shipping and fishing operations and raising the risk of international disputes over increasingly scarce water resources. A Shared Challenge for Five Nations The Caspian Sea, the world’s largest enclosed inland body of water, receives inflow from more than 130 rivers, including the Volga, Ural, Terek, Sulak, and Samur. Its coastline is shared by five countries: Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and Iran. While the Volga's inflow increased slightly to 232 cubic kilometers in 2024, it remains insufficient to reverse or even stabilize the sea’s decline. Experts agree that regional cooperation and a coordinated, long-term strategy for water resource management are essential to confronting this environmental crisis.

Caspian Sea

How the Shallowing of the Caspian Sea Will Affect Kazakhstan’s Ecology and Economy

Environmentalists are raising the alarm as the level of the Caspian Sea approaches a historic low. A recent review by Energyprom.kz highlights the growing environmental and economic risks facing Kazakhstan. Sea Level Dynamics and Causes of Decline At the 28th session of the Caspian Hydrometeorological Coordination Committee, it was reported that in November 2024, the average sea level stood at -29.03 meters relative to the Baltic elevation system. This marks the lowest level since 1977 when the sea dropped to -29.18 meters. Historical records indicate that between 1930 and 1977, the Caspian Sea experienced a significant decline due to the large-scale hydro-technical regulation of the Volga and Ural rivers. A temporary recovery followed between 1978 and 1995, with levels rising to -26.4 meters. However, since 2006, the sea has been steadily receding once more. According to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, the surface area of the Caspian has shrunk from 390,000 to 360,000 square kilometers in the past 18 years, with the northeastern shoreline most severely affected. “Since 2001, it has receded by over 50 kilometers, transforming thousands of square kilometers of water into land,” Deputy Edil Zhanbyrshin said during an inspection of the Ural River’s delta in the Atyrau Region. The depth at its mouth is now just 30-40 centimeters and is no longer navigable by ship. Climate Change and Meteorological Shifts One of the primary drivers of the sea’s decline is a drop in precipitation in the Volga basin. Atlantic cyclones that once brought regular rainfall have shifted their paths due to climate change. Simultaneously, rising temperatures are accelerating surface evaporation. Though the Caspian Sea borders five nations - Kazakhstan, Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan - Kazakhstan bears the greatest risk. The sea’s northern section, vital for maritime transport and oil production, is the most vulnerable. Pollution, Wildlife Decline, and Regulatory Failures In addition to hydrological challenges, pollution remains a persistent threat. Members of the Mazhilis have cited ongoing toxic discharges by oil companies as a major factor in ecological degradation. The Caspian seal population has also plunged from one million to 100,000 over four decades, and sturgeon numbers have fallen by 90%. A parliamentary inquiry highlights the detrimental impact of oil spills, industrial fishing, drilling platforms, and tanker traffic, which obstruct sturgeon spawning routes. Compounding the problem, environmental fines levied on oil firms have reportedly been written off, either against future investments or royalties. Vadim Ni, director of the Social and Environmental Fund, told the Mazhilis he has been denied access to the environmental clauses in contracts with major field operators at Kashagan, Tengiz, and Karachaganak. The Ministry of Ecology has declined to release the data, citing confidentiality, and court appeals for transparency have so far failed. A Looming Migration Crisis? Without a reversal like the sea-level rise of 1978, Kazakhstan could face severe consequences. These include the cessation of shipping, collapse of marine ecosystems, and potential mass displacements. “By 2040, the issue of resettling up to five million Kazakhs living near the sea may...

Environment

Kazakhstan Under Pressure to Address Environmental Crisis

The United Nations Green Climate Fund (GCF) has pledged $280 million to Kazakhstan for environmental projects, underscoring the country's increasingly urgent ecological challenges. Experts warn that Kazakhstan faces a widening crisis as environmental degradation accelerates. Toward a “Green” Transition Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources Yerlan Nyssanbayev announced that the GCF will allocate substantial funding to Kazakhstan to support initiatives in renewable energy, electric transport development, and the adoption of low-carbon industrial technologies. “These investments will accelerate the country's transition to a sustainable, environmentally friendly economy,” Nyssanbayev stated. The minister said that Kazakhstan prepared a national program for GCF funding in 2024, comprising seven major initiatives. These included reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector, strengthening rural water supply systems, modernizing livestock farms, and promoting private-sector green financing. The program's total budget exceeds $1 billion, with $630 million potentially financed by the GCF. Additionally, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) continues to back renewable energy projects in Kazakhstan. Eleven projects with a combined capacity of 330 MW are planned by 2027; nine have already secured financing. A Mounting Environmental Toll Kazakhstan continues to struggle with serious environmental challenges, many rooted in the Soviet-era legacy, and others emerging from modern development pressures. The country faces desertification, flooding, frequent wildfires, and escalating urban air pollution, particularly in cities like Almaty, Pavlodar, and Karaganda. On June 5, the government announced the formation of a Biodiversity Protection Fund at a forum in Astana. Akylbek Kurishbayev, President of the National Academy of Sciences, emphasized the urgency of regional collaboration in biodiversity conservation amid intensifying climate and anthropogenic pressures. Deputy Minister Nurlan Kurmalayev highlighted biodiversity preservation as a key component of environmental security and sustainable land use, calling for cross-border cooperation. In parallel, the national initiative “Green Kazakhstan” is advancing afforestation efforts across urban and rural areas, alongside waste management programs, ecosystem restoration, energy efficiency campaigns, and public education on environmental stewardship. Environmental Disaster Zones: The Caspian and Aral Seas Two of Kazakhstan's most pressing ecological crises involve the shrinking Caspian and Aral Seas. The Caspian Sea's water levels are falling dramatically. According to the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources, levels in 2024 are expected to drop by 22 cm in the northeast and 29 cm in the eastern Kazakh sector compared to 2023. Scientists warn of continued decline due to reduced inflows from the Volga and Ural rivers and rising global temperatures. TCA has previously reported about mass die-outs of Caspian seals in recent years. Vadim Ni, founder of the Save the Caspian Sea movement, described the crisis as triple-faceted, climate, ecological, and economic. “Its level is falling at an unprecedented rate, 2 meters over the past 20 years. By century’s end, up to one-third of its surface could be lost,” he said, warning that the shallow northern shelf, vital to the ecosystem, is especially at risk. Pollution, overfishing, and unchecked oil extraction are cited as critical threats. In April 2025, Mazhilis Deputy Sergei Ponomarev addressed a parliamentary inquiry to Prime...