Environmentalists are raising the alarm as the level of the Caspian Sea approaches a historic low. A recent review by Energyprom.kz highlights the growing environmental and economic risks facing Kazakhstan.
Sea Level Dynamics and Causes of Decline
At the 28th session of the Caspian Hydrometeorological Coordination Committee, it was reported that in November 2024, the average sea level stood at -29.03 meters relative to the Baltic elevation system. This marks the lowest level since 1977 when the sea dropped to -29.18 meters.
Historical records indicate that between 1930 and 1977, the Caspian Sea experienced a significant decline due to the large-scale hydro-technical regulation of the Volga and Ural rivers. A temporary recovery followed between 1978 and 1995, with levels rising to -26.4 meters. However, since 2006, the sea has been steadily receding once more.
According to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, the surface area of the Caspian has shrunk from 390,000 to 360,000 square kilometers in the past 18 years, with the northeastern shoreline most severely affected.
“Since 2001, it has receded by over 50 kilometers, transforming thousands of square kilometers of water into land,” Deputy Edil Zhanbyrshin said during an inspection of the Ural River’s delta in the Atyrau Region. The depth at its mouth is now just 30-40 centimeters and is no longer navigable by ship.
Climate Change and Meteorological Shifts
One of the primary drivers of the sea’s decline is a drop in precipitation in the Volga basin. Atlantic cyclones that once brought regular rainfall have shifted their paths due to climate change. Simultaneously, rising temperatures are accelerating surface evaporation.
Though the Caspian Sea borders five nations – Kazakhstan, Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan – Kazakhstan bears the greatest risk. The sea’s northern section, vital for maritime transport and oil production, is the most vulnerable.
Pollution, Wildlife Decline, and Regulatory Failures
In addition to hydrological challenges, pollution remains a persistent threat. Members of the Mazhilis have cited ongoing toxic discharges by oil companies as a major factor in ecological degradation. The Caspian seal population has also plunged from one million to 100,000 over four decades, and sturgeon numbers have fallen by 90%.
A parliamentary inquiry highlights the detrimental impact of oil spills, industrial fishing, drilling platforms, and tanker traffic, which obstruct sturgeon spawning routes.
Compounding the problem, environmental fines levied on oil firms have reportedly been written off, either against future investments or royalties.
Vadim Ni, director of the Social and Environmental Fund, told the Mazhilis he has been denied access to the environmental clauses in contracts with major field operators at Kashagan, Tengiz, and Karachaganak. The Ministry of Ecology has declined to release the data, citing confidentiality, and court appeals for transparency have so far failed.
A Looming Migration Crisis?
Without a reversal like the sea-level rise of 1978, Kazakhstan could face severe consequences. These include the cessation of shipping, collapse of marine ecosystems, and potential mass displacements.
“By 2040, the issue of resettling up to five million Kazakhs living near the sea may become unavoidable,” warned Mazhilis Deputy Sergei Ponomarev.
Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources has presented two projections. Under a moderate climate scenario with a 0.9-2°C temperature rise by 2050, sea levels could drop to -31.8 meters. A more severe warming of 1.4-2.6°C could see levels fall to -33.7 meters, posing critical risks to the country’s environment and economy.
To address these threats, Kazakhstan established the Scientific Research Institute of the Caspian Sea six months ago. However, the institute remains non-operational due to a lack of funding. Repairs, equipment, and staffing require 1.8 billion tenge ($3.5 million), but the Ministry of Finance has rejected the allocation. A new request has been submitted to the government’s reserve fund.
