Caspian Sea - The Times Of Central Asia

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Caspian Sea

Japan Funds $3 Million Caspian Sea Monitoring Project in Kazakhstan

Japan is funding a $3 million project to improve monitoring of the shrinking Caspian Sea, focusing particularly on Kazakhstan’s shallow northern basin. The project, implemented by the United Nations Development Programme in partnership with Kazakhstan, was officially launched in Aktau on October 5. Experts from across the Caspian region are expected to take part in joint research and a regional scientific platform designed to improve the exchange of data and expertise. For Kazakhstan, the most immediate problem lies in the northern Caspian. The water there is extremely shallow, meaning that even relatively small declines in sea level can push the shoreline back considerable distances. Habitats used by Caspian seals and sturgeon are already changing, while ports and shipping face growing difficulties. Scientists link the decline to changes in the Caspian Sea’s water balance. The sea has no connection to the world’s oceans and depends on river inflow, precipitation, and evaporation. The Volga supplies most of its river water, while rising temperatures are increasing evaporation. In July 2025, the Caspian was reported to have fallen to its lowest level in the instrumental record. The Times of Central Asia reported that the shallow northeastern section along Kazakhstan and Russia was retreating particularly rapidly. The consequences could become far greater than the shoreline retreat already visible today. A study published in Communications Earth & Environment found that a five-meter decline from the study’s reference level could turn about 77,000 square kilometers of the Caspian’s current water surface into land, equivalent to around one-fifth of its present area. The northern basin would be among the areas most severely affected. The new project is intended to provide a clearer picture of how the decline is unfolding. Specialists will assess Kazakhstan’s existing observation network along the northern Caspian and identify where additional monitoring sites and modern equipment are needed. Sea level and river-flow measurements will be combined with data on temperature, salinity, evaporation, weather conditions, seabed depth, and satellite observations to improve projections of future changes. Kazakhstan is also tracking the volume of water reaching the Caspian. According to data from the Zhaiyk-Caspian basin inspectorate cited by the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, 6.16 billion cubic meters had reached the sea since the start of 2026. Over the previous two and a half years, the total exceeded 35 billion cubic meters, including more than 17 billion during the exceptional floods of 2024.

Avaza Summit

Central Asia and Azerbaijan Head to Avaza for First Formal Summit

On Thursday, Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov is due to receive Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Sadyr Japarov, Emomali Rahmon, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, and Ilham Aliyev in a place built to impress visitors. Thursday’s meeting will be the first formal consultative summit since Azerbaijan joined the format as a full participant in November 2025. The six presidents have already met once in the new configuration, at an informal gathering in Cholpon Ata on July 31, where they signed a declaration covering closer cooperation on transport, energy, trade, and security. Construction of Avaza began in late 2007, as Turkmenistan sought to create a national showcase on its Caspian coast. The resort’s hotels and sanatoria sit among parks and entertainment complexes, while eleven road and foot bridges span a seven-kilometer artificial canal. According to official figures, its hotels and recreation facilities can accommodate more than 10,000 vacationers. State institutions send employees there for summer holidays, echoing the Soviet tradition of workplace-organized vacations. These holidays help fill a resort where the seasonal rhythms differ sharply from everyday life in neighboring Turkmenbashi. Officially, Avaza is a district of Turkmenbashi, a city of around 90,000 residents located 580 kilometers west of Ashgabat across the Karakum Desert. The working city's economy is built around oil refining, the port, and transport. The Turkmenbashi International Seaport traces its history to 1896 and was rebuilt on a large scale before reopening in its current form in 2018. The Turkmenbashi refinery complex was founded in 1943 and remains one of the country's main oil-processing centers. The city itself was known as Krasnovodsk until 1993, when it was renamed Turkmenbashi after the title used by then-President Saparmurat Niyazov. The sea that was supposed to be Avaza's main attraction is now retreating from it. In 2024, one visitor told RFE/RL that the shoreline was 25-30 meters farther away than when his family had swum there three years earlier. A correspondent found hotels creating new beach areas farther out, while dredging was underway near the port. By September 2026, shallower water was forcing some ferries to carry lighter loads and pushing ports around the sea into costly dredging and berth work. The effects are already visible along the coast where the leaders will meet. [caption id="attachment_57713" align="aligncenter" width="1774"] The Avaza resort on Turkmenistan’s Caspian coast, where the five Central Asian presidents and Azerbaijan’s Ilham Aliyev are due to meet on October 8.[/caption] Turkmenistan is also hosting Caspian-focused meetings around the leaders' gathering, while the October 8 agenda includes climate, water, trade, energy, transport, and regional security. At the November 2025 summit in Tashkent, the five Central Asian presidents unanimously approved Azerbaijan’s admission as a full participant, extending the grouping across the Caspian into the South Caucasus. Aliyev has been careful to mark the change. At the informal meeting in Cholpon Ata on July 31, he said: "I previously participated as a guest of honor, but today I am taking part as a full member of the team." The format dates to 2018 and was deliberately light on bureaucracy....

Military Deaths

Kazakhstan Orders Military Overhaul After 14 Die in Caspian Drills

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has replaced the country’s defense minister, three days after 14 servicemen were killed during military exercises in the Caspian Sea. Tokayev appointed Aidos Myrzakhmetov to lead the ministry, ordered a broad inspection of the Defense Ministry, and gave officials ten days to prepare a military reform plan. Dauren Kosanov, who had held the role since June 2025, was dismissed on September 27. On the same day, Tokayev appointed Myrzakhmetov and introduced him at a meeting of senior Defense Ministry officials. Myrzakhmetov, 45, is a career officer who spent much of his career in the State Guard Service before being appointed commander of the Armed Forces’ Special Operations Forces in January 2024. He graduated from the National Defense University in 2025 and holds the rank of major general. [caption id="attachment_57120" align="aligncenter" width="750"] New Defense Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan meets with the President; image: Akorda[/caption] Political analyst Adil Seifullin said the appointment appeared to continue a practice of moving officers with State Guard Service experience into senior government roles where officials face difficult decisions. He said Myrzakhmetov’s combination of experience in the service and direct command of the Special Operations Forces may have been among the factors behind his selection. Tokayev set several priorities for the new minister, including reassessing the effectiveness of military spending, overhauling the command system, accelerating digitalization, and using technology instead of personnel for dangerous tasks where possible. He also said appointments to command positions should be based on experience and professional qualifications “rather than the principle of personal loyalty.” “Our army is stuck in the last century,” Tokayev said, calling for the command system to be rebuilt using international experience. The Security Council staff and Defense Ministry have ten days to prepare a phased military reform plan, which is due to be considered at a Security Council meeting in the second half of October. Tokayev specifically instructed officials not to produce another set of lengthy concepts and road maps, but to propose concrete measures. The overhaul follows the deaths of 14 servicemen during the Khazar Qorgany 2026 exercises in the Mangystau region on September 24. Seventeen servicemen were swept into the sea during a personnel landing operation from the Qaisar boat. Three were rescued, and 14 died. September 25 was declared a day of national mourning in Kazakhstan. The Interior Ministry’s military investigative department opened a criminal case over suspected negligence and violations of navigation rules. Five members of the military command were subsequently detained as suspects. These included the chief of staff and first deputy commander-in-chief of the Naval Forces, two military unit commanders, a Marine Corps company commander, and the commander of the boat. The Times of Central Asia previously reported on the tragedy and investigation, as well as the response of victims’ relatives. The tragedy also raised questions about how the landing operation itself was organized. Azerbaijani military expert and reserve colonel Shair Ramaldanov said that, as he understood it, the Qaisar normally carried a crew of four...

Military Deaths

Deaths During Caspian Military Drills: Kazakhstan Investigates Commanders’ Actions

Fourteen servicemen in Kazakhstan’s Armed Forces were killed during military exercises on the Caspian Sea on September 24, and five Armed Forces officials were detained. On the same evening, around 100 relatives and Aktau residents gathered outside the city morgue as a serviceman read out the names of the dead. People demanded the chance to identify the bodies, and screams and crying could be heard after some names. September 25 was declared a day of national mourning in Kazakhstan. The Ministry of Defense later reported that 17 had been swept into the sea; three were rescued, one of whom was hospitalized, and 14 died. A criminal case was opened under provisions covering negligence in the performance of military duties resulting in serious consequences and violations of navigation rules. The Khazar Qorgany 2026 exercises began on September 22 in Kazakhstan’s sector of the Caspian Sea. More than 500 military personnel took part, along with ships and boats from the Naval Forces, hydrographic vessels, Coast Guard units of the National Security Committee’s Border Service, and Air Defense Forces aircraft. Relatives of one serviceman said that officials from the akimat, the local executive authority, the police, and the military enlistment office came to the family’s home to tell them their son had died. Members of other families said that some of the conscripts were about a week away from completing their military service. Based on the published birth dates of 12 servicemen on the Ministry of Defense’s initial list, they were between 19 and 23 years old; nine were born in 2006 or 2007. Among those killed was 20-year-old sailor Serzhan Ayapbergen from the Mangystau region. Before joining the military, he competed in sambo and judo, won silver at the Kazakhstan championship and the Commonwealth of Independent States Games in sambo, won judo competitions, and earned the title of Candidate for Master of Sport. Deaths among military personnel in peacetime have been debated in Kazakhstan for years. In April 2023, First Deputy Chief Military Prosecutor Maksat Kaziyev said that 270 servicemen had died since the beginning of 2020: 78 in 2020, 96 in 2021, 85 in 2022, and another 11 in the first months of 2023. According to prosecutors, 36% of the deaths were related to illness, 24% to road accidents, and 20% to suicide. Between 2018 and 2022, 86 suicides and 20 attempted suicides were recorded among military personnel. These figures cover career military personnel, contract soldiers, and conscripts, and include different causes of death. They do not show how many people died specifically while performing military duties. The deaths of conscripts, young men performing compulsory military service, are particularly sensitive in Kazakhstan. [caption id="attachment_57024" align="aligncenter" width="800"] Detention of the suspected commander / Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan[/caption] In November 2025, journalists questioned Defense Minister Dauren Kosanov about deaths among servicemen, hazing in Kazakhstan’s armed forces, and violence in military units. After a reporter said that news of serious incidents appeared almost every month, Kosanov responded with apparent...

Middle Corridor

Middle Corridor Debate Shifts From Geopolitics to Commercial Viability

For several years, interest in the Middle Corridor has risen sharply amid the war in Ukraine, tensions around Iran, sanctions, instability on maritime routes, and governments’ efforts to diversify supply chains. The route runs through Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, and the South Caucasus. The way the issue is framed is now changing. The debate over whether this route is needed is moving into the background. A more important question is whether the Middle Corridor can develop from a politically attractive alternative into a sustainable transport and economic system that businesses will use not because of geopolitical circumstances, but because it is competitive. In this context, the 7th Caspian Business Forum, held in New York on September 22 and organized by the Caspian Policy Center (CPC), provided a useful snapshot of this shift. Representatives of the United States, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, and major businesses took part. The discussions focused on the Middle Corridor, the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), energy, critical minerals, and attracting private capital. Freight volumes on the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route rose from 0.8 million tons to 4.5 million tons in the seven years to 2025, according to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Transport. The route carried about 77,000 twenty-foot equivalent units of containerized cargo in 2025, and Kazakhstan aims to raise that total to 300,000 by 2029. These volumes are substantial, but they show the limits of the Middle Corridor’s current capacity. It has not yet become a replacement for all traditional overland routes between China and Europe. The World Bank has noted that the Middle Corridor is more than a transit bridge between China and the European Union (EU). Growth in trade among the countries along the route, as well as their trade with Europe, could be equally important. With the necessary investment and organizational reforms, it estimates, trade flows could triple and transport times could roughly halve by 2030. The route passes through several countries, crosses the Caspian Sea, requires transfers between different modes of transport, and depends on coordination among railway operators, ports, customs services, and tariff policies. A study of transport connectivity between Europe and Central Asia by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, at the request of the European Commission, identified 33 priority investment needs in physical infrastructure and seven soft-connectivity measures, ranging from the digitalization of transport documents to the harmonization of tariffs, customs, and border procedures. The CPC forum addressed these issues as well. CPC President Efgan Nifti put it this way: “For the Corridor to reach its full potential, it must increasingly function as one integrated system – with harmonized border procedures, coordinated ports and railways, and digitalized documentation.” Kazakhstan’s position reflects this approach. The country’s presidential representative for negotiations with the United States, Erzhan Kazykhan, called the Middle Corridor a “strategic investment in the future” connecting Kazakhstan with the South Caucasus, Turkey, and Europe. He said Astana views TRIPP as a logical extension of the system that could shorten the route to European markets...

Caspian Sea

At Least Nine Kazakh Servicemen Killed During Caspian Sea Exercises

At least nine Kazakh servicemen have died during naval exercises in the Caspian Sea on September 24, Kazakhstan’s Defense Ministry said. Search operations continued after strong winds carried military personnel out to sea in the western Mangistau region. The ministry’s initial statement said 19 servicemen had been swept away following a sudden deterioration in weather conditions. Three were rescued, including one who was hospitalized. The ministry confirmed nine deaths and said rescuers were searching for the others. A subsequent report by Ulysmedia said its correspondent at the scene had reported the recovery of 12 bodies. That figure had not been officially confirmed. The report said divers were searching underwater while two helicopters assisted from above. The Prosecutor General’s Office announced a criminal investigation into the deaths, with an investigative team formed to establish the circumstances of the incident. Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov also established a government commission, chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Kanat Bozumbayev. Bektenov instructed him to travel immediately to the scene, oversee a comprehensive investigation, and arrange assistance for the bereaved families. The Defense Ministry separately dispatched a commission led by Defense Minister Dauren Kosanov. Naval units and emergency services joined the search, with aviation support. The ministry said the families of those killed would receive assistance. Two days earlier, the ministry had announced the start of the Khazar Korgany-2026 exercises in Kazakhstan’s sector of the Caspian Sea. More than 500 personnel were involved, alongside naval vessels and coastal units. However, the ministry’s initial account of the deaths did not identify the exercise by name. The deaths come amid continuing concern over peacetime fatalities in Kazakhstan’s armed forces. The circumstances of the Caspian incident remain under investigation, including how the servicemen became stranded in the water. By order of the Head of State, a day of national mourning has been declared for September 25, 2026.