Caspian Sea - The Times Of Central Asia

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Middle Corridor

Middle Corridor Debate Shifts From Geopolitics to Commercial Viability

For several years, interest in the Middle Corridor has risen sharply amid the war in Ukraine, tensions around Iran, sanctions, instability on maritime routes, and governments’ efforts to diversify supply chains. The route runs through Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, and the South Caucasus. The way the issue is framed is now changing. The debate over whether this route is needed is moving into the background. A more important question is whether the Middle Corridor can develop from a politically attractive alternative into a sustainable transport and economic system that businesses will use not because of geopolitical circumstances, but because it is competitive. In this context, the 7th Caspian Business Forum, held in New York on September 22 and organized by the Caspian Policy Center (CPC), provided a useful snapshot of this shift. Representatives of the United States, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, and major businesses took part. The discussions focused on the Middle Corridor, the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), energy, critical minerals, and attracting private capital. Freight volumes on the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route rose from 0.8 million tons to 4.5 million tons in the seven years to 2025, according to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Transport. The route carried about 77,000 twenty-foot equivalent units of containerized cargo in 2025, and Kazakhstan aims to raise that total to 300,000 by 2029. These volumes are substantial, but they show the limits of the Middle Corridor’s current capacity. It has not yet become a replacement for all traditional overland routes between China and Europe. The World Bank has noted that the Middle Corridor is more than a transit bridge between China and the European Union (EU). Growth in trade among the countries along the route, as well as their trade with Europe, could be equally important. With the necessary investment and organizational reforms, it estimates, trade flows could triple and transport times could roughly halve by 2030. The route passes through several countries, crosses the Caspian Sea, requires transfers between different modes of transport, and depends on coordination among railway operators, ports, customs services, and tariff policies. A study of transport connectivity between Europe and Central Asia by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, at the request of the European Commission, identified 33 priority investment needs in physical infrastructure and seven soft-connectivity measures, ranging from the digitalization of transport documents to the harmonization of tariffs, customs, and border procedures. The CPC forum addressed these issues as well. CPC President Efgan Nifti put it this way: “For the Corridor to reach its full potential, it must increasingly function as one integrated system – with harmonized border procedures, coordinated ports and railways, and digitalized documentation.” Kazakhstan’s position reflects this approach. The country’s presidential representative for negotiations with the United States, Erzhan Kazykhan, called the Middle Corridor a “strategic investment in the future” connecting Kazakhstan with the South Caucasus, Turkey, and Europe. He said Astana views TRIPP as a logical extension of the system that could shorten the route to European markets...

Caspian Sea

At Least Nine Kazakh Servicemen Killed During Caspian Sea Exercises

At least nine Kazakh servicemen have died during naval exercises in the Caspian Sea on September 24, Kazakhstan’s Defense Ministry said. Search operations continued after strong winds carried military personnel out to sea in the western Mangistau region. The ministry’s initial statement said 19 servicemen had been swept away following a sudden deterioration in weather conditions. Three were rescued, including one who was hospitalized. The ministry confirmed nine deaths and said rescuers were searching for the others. A subsequent report by Ulysmedia said its correspondent at the scene had reported the recovery of 12 bodies. That figure had not been officially confirmed. The report said divers were searching underwater while two helicopters assisted from above. The Prosecutor General’s Office announced a criminal investigation into the deaths, with an investigative team formed to establish the circumstances of the incident. Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov also established a government commission, chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Kanat Bozumbayev. Bektenov instructed him to travel immediately to the scene, oversee a comprehensive investigation, and arrange assistance for the bereaved families. The Defense Ministry separately dispatched a commission led by Defense Minister Dauren Kosanov. Naval units and emergency services joined the search, with aviation support. The ministry said the families of those killed would receive assistance. Two days earlier, the ministry had announced the start of the Khazar Korgany-2026 exercises in Kazakhstan’s sector of the Caspian Sea. More than 500 personnel were involved, alongside naval vessels and coastal units. However, the ministry’s initial account of the deaths did not identify the exercise by name. The deaths come amid continuing concern over peacetime fatalities in Kazakhstan’s armed forces. The circumstances of the Caspian incident remain under investigation, including how the servicemen became stranded in the water. By order of the Head of State, a day of national mourning has been declared for September 25, 2026.

Caspian Sea

Iran Moves to Ratify Caspian Sea Agreement Amid Tensions

Iran wants its parliament to ratify a long-delayed agreement among the littoral states of the Caspian Sea that it says could facilitate economic cooperation. The initiative comes as tensions between Iran and the United States remain high, increasing pressure on the Iranian economy. The Iranian government’s plan to submit the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea for ratification in the parliament “follows changes in the security environment” around the sea, according to Kazem Gharibabadi, deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs. Gharibabadi was quoted in an interview published by the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency, or IRNA, on Saturday. The IRNA report did not go into detail about those security changes, but Iran had blamed Ukraine for a Caspian Sea attack last month that it said resulted in an explosion on an Iranian commercial vessel, killing one sailor and injuring another. Ukraine has acknowledged conducting long-range strikes in the Caspian, saying it was targeting vessels transporting military cargo linked to Iran, an ally of Russia. The Iranian move in the parliament, which is dominated by conservatives, comes ahead of Iran´s reported plan to host a meeting of the Caspian littoral states next week. In 2018, the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea was signed in Aktau, Kazakhstan, by Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan. The convention includes security provisions, including a ban on the presence of armed forces from non-littoral states. It also aims to assign territorial waters and regulate access to resources, including fisheries and offshore oil. However, some details were not clarified and, unlike the other countries, Iran´s parliament did not ratify the deal. Some critics in Iran had argued that the convention left the country at a disadvantage. Iran’s recent decision to urgently submit the convention to its parliament “comes amid public debate over the convention’s provisions, Iran’s rights and interests in the Caspian, and questions surrounding the country’s share of the sea,” IRNA reported. It quoted Gharibabadi as saying that, in addition to Caspian security concerns, there is a need to increase economic cooperation among the littoral states and resolve legal issues concerning the sea. Some Iranian commentators say Iran is under pressure to make concessions and could end up compromising the country’s rights in the Caspian. In the IRNA interview, Gharibabadi sought to downplay criticism, saying Iranian parliamentary ratification would have “no impact on the delimitation of the seabed and subsoil of the body of water,” and that those issues would have to be resolved through negotiations among states with adjacent Caspian coastlines. “By ratifying the Convention, Tehran could gain certain advantages, including legal certainty regarding the Caspian Sea and the preservation of its partnership with Moscow, which is pushing for the issue to be resolved. At the same time, the potential costs for Iran appear more significant,” said the Regional Center for Democracy and Security, a research center in Armenia, a South Caucasus country that could be affected by developments in the Caspian Sea. The center’s analysis this month...

Caspian Sea

As Two Wars Reach the Caspian, Central Asia’s Middle Corridor Holds

On July 25, two wars met in waters that Central Asian governments had tried to keep apart. Ukraine reported successful long-range strikes in the Caspian Sea. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the targets included vessels involved in carrying military cargo from Iran and a warship. Tehran said an Iranian commercial vessel had been struck, killing one sailor and injuring another, and accused Kyiv of trying to widen the war. It remains unclear whether the vessel identified by Iran was among the targets described by Zelenskyy. Diplomacy produced a limited off-ramp. On July 28, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha told his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araqchi, that the strike on the Iranian ship was unintended. Both governments said they wanted to avoid further escalation. The call reduced the immediate risk of retaliation, but it did not remove the new danger. The Caspian is now one of the places where Russia’s war against Ukraine and the war involving Iran, Israel, and the United States intersect. Central Asia is exposed through the infrastructure and trade routes linking them. A “Sea of Peace” Under Pressure Turkmenistan responded to the incident with unusually direct language. Its Foreign Ministry called attacks on vessels in the Caspian “inadmissible” and described the waterway as a “sea of peace, harmony and good-neighborliness.” Ashgabat did not name Ukraine or endorse Iran’s account. Its restraint was characteristic, but the public criticism was unusual. Turkmenistan’s permanent neutrality normally produces guarded statements during external conflicts. The intervention showed that Ashgabat viewed the attack as a challenge to the regional order. Turkmenistan faces Iran across a 1,148-kilometer land border and the southern Caspian. Turkmenbashi port is also central to its plans for a larger role in Eurasian trade. The principle is set out in the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea, signed in Aktau in 2018. Its text calls for the peaceful use of the sea, prohibits the use or threat of force, and bars armed forces belonging to non-Caspian states. The convention has not entered into force because Iran has not ratified it. Its provisions were designed to govern relations among the five littoral states. They do not address a long-range strike carried out by a non-littoral state. But modern drones can cross distances that once provided strategic shelter. A landlocked sea can no longer be assumed to sit beyond the reach of surrounding wars. The Iran-Russia Link Ukraine has clear military reasons to look toward the Caspian. Iran has supplied Russia with drone technology used against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. The sea also provides a direct commercial route between Iranian ports and Russia’s Volga region. Kyiv now treats vessels on that route carrying military cargo as part of Russia’s military logistics. Iran described the vessel struck on July 25 as civilian. The dispute over the ship’s cargo is central because commercial and military supply chains can overlap. A vessel may be civilian by flag and registration while carrying goods that Ukraine considers part of Russia’s war effort. That uncertainty reaches beyond...

Middle East Crisis

Turkmenistan Condemns Strike on Iranian Ship in Caspian Sea

Turkmenistan has criticized an attack on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea that the Iranian government blamed on Ukraine. In a statement on Monday, Turkmenistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs referred to media reports of an attack on a ship in the Caspian on July 25 and described “such actions” as unacceptable. “As a Caspian littoral state and the country with a status of permanent neutrality recognized by the United Nations, Turkmenistan underlines that the Caspian Sea is a sea of peace, harmony and good-neighborliness,” the ministry said, without specifically referring to Ukraine or Iran. The Caspian Sea is critical to Turkmenistan´s ambition to play a larger role in the Middle Corridor, a trade network linking Asia and Europe via Central Asia and the Caucasus. Iran had blamed Ukraine for the attack that it said resulted in an explosion on an Iranian commercial vessel, killing one sailor and injuring another. It described the attack as “an act of aggression that could further inflame and expand the ongoing conflict.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said the Ukrainian military’s deep strike range is more than 3,000 kilometers, indicating that the Caspian Sea is within reach. “We also have very good results from long-range strikes in the waters of the Caspian Sea,” Zelenskyy said on July 25. “In particular, these are vessels that were involved in transporting military cargo from Iran, and a warship.” Iran has provided drone technology to Russia since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The attack in the Caspian Sea comes amid heightened Mideast tension and open conflict between Iran and the United States. Earlier in July, Kazakhstan had condemned drone strikes on oil infrastructure in the Black Sea that is critical to Kazakhstan’s energy exports. Ukraine has said it was targeting Russian interests in the Black Sea. On July 25, in a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev called for a freeze of the Russia-Ukraine war in some of his strongest comments about ending the fighting.

Russia's War in Ukraine

Tokayev Calls for Ukraine War Freeze as Black Sea and Caspian Risks Grow

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has called for Russia and Ukraine to freeze the war and return to negotiations, delivering one of his clearest public appeals for an end to the conflict while seated beside Russian President Vladimir Putin. "Perhaps this conflict should already be frozen and we should return to the Istanbul Formula 2.0, since significant results were achieved there," Tokayev said during talks in Omsk on July 25. He said major powers, including Russia, should provide security guarantees before the sides moved towards a lasting peace. Russia and Ukraine held talks in Istanbul soon after Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022 and resumed direct negotiations there in 2025, though neither round produced a settlement. Moscow and Kyiv dispute how close the 2022 talks came to an agreement and why they collapsed. Tokayev described the war as an "interstate conflict," and said that Kazakhstan respects the Ukrainian people, their culture and language. He also expressed concern over the deaths of young Russians and Ukrainians. Tokayev declined any formal role for Astana, but stated that he had received proposals and appeals concerning mediation, including from Europe and the United States. He said Kazakhstan was not an outsider, but that Russia was capable of resolving the issue without an intermediary. He also reaffirmed Kazakhstan's strategic partnership and allied relationship with Russia, praising what he called Putin's diplomatic flexibility during the Russian president's August 2025 meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in Anchorage. The Kremlin rejected the idea of a freeze. Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said it was impossible under Kyiv's current position. He repeated Moscow's claim that fighting could stop if Ukraine made what Russia considers the necessary decisions. Russia's stated terms include Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, including areas Moscow does not control. Putin also wants Kyiv to renounce its aim of joining NATO. Ukraine has rejected those conditions. Tokayev's position has developed publicly, but has remained centered on negotiations. In September 2024, he said Russia was "militarily invincible" and argued that continued escalation could bring about a wider disaster. He called for hostilities to stop before negotiations moved to territorial issues. Kazakhstan has also kept its distance from several central Kremlin claims. In June 2022, Tokayev refused to recognize the Russian-backed entities in Donetsk and Luhansk, describing them as "quasi-state territories." Astana has continued to cite the UN Charter, state sovereignty, and territorial integrity. The latest appeal came as the war reached shipping routes close to Kazakhstan and disrupted the country's main oil export corridor. On July 25, Iran accused Ukraine of attacking an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea. Tehran said an explosion killed one sailor and injured another, summoning Ukraine's chargé d'affaires and describing the strike as hostile and criminal. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his forces had achieved "very strong results" with long-range strikes in the Caspian, and that targets included a Russian warship and vessels used for military cargo shipments involving Iran. Zelensky did not identify the vessels, and Iran did not name...