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Middle Powers

Which Central Asian States Qualify as Middle Powers in 2025?

As global power shifts toward multipolarity, Central Asia’s states are emerging as active regional players. This article assesses which of the five republics—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—qualify as middle powers in 2025, based on economic strength, diplomatic reach, strategic capacity, and governance. Kazakhstan stands as the region’s only consolidated middle power, balancing fiscal stability, institutional reform, and multi-vector diplomacy. Uzbekistan is a rising aspirant, propelled by reforms but still reliant on external financing and centralized authority. The remaining states remain constrained by dependence and limited institutional depth. Together, they reflect a region increasingly capable of shaping, rather than merely absorbing, global and regional change. A comparative analysis of five Central Asian republics shows how far each has advanced toward this status. 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This article assesses which of the five republics—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—qualify as middle powers in 2025, based on economic strength, diplomatic reach, strategic capacity, and governance. Kazakhstan stands as the region’s only consolidated middle power, balancing fiscal stability, institutional reform, and multi-vector diplomacy. Uzbekistan is a rising aspirant, propelled by reforms but still reliant on external financing and centralized authority. The remaining states remain constrained by dependence and limited institutional depth. Together, they reflect a region increasingly capable of shaping, rather than merely absorbing, global and regional change. A comparative analysis of five Central Asian republics shows how far each has advanced toward this status. Economic Power Economic autonomy is a defining attribute of middle-power capability, enabling states to project influence, sustain policy independence, and finance external engagement. In Central Asia, dependence on Official Development Assistance (ODA) and remittances often reflects constrained fiscal capacity and limited domestic capital formation, while diversified, resilient economies underpin strategic autonomy. Key indicators—GDP per capita, credit ratings, debt sustainability, and export diversification—illuminate the region’s economic hierarchy. Kazakhstan stands as Central Asia’s only consolidated economic middle power. Resource-backed growth, a prudent fiscal regime, and a sovereign wealth fund (the National Fund of Kazakhstan) have anchored macroeconomic stability. With a “BBB” credit rating or equivalent from major agencies, Kazakhstan demonstrates sound debt management and policy credibility. Ongoing diversification efforts under the new economic policies—from renewables to financial modernization—aim to reduce hydrocarbon dependence and deepen integration into global supply chains. Its role as a trans-Caspian logistics hub enhances both strategic and commercial influence. Uzbekistan, by contrast, is an emerging frontier market propelled by post-2017 reforms in currency liberalization, taxation, and state-enterprise restructuring. Rapid GDP growth and expanding private-sector activity mark its trajectory toward fiscal autonomy, though continued ODA inflows averaging around $1.1 billion to 1.3 billion annually, primarily from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the World Bank, and bilateral partners such as Japan, the United States, and the European Union, highlight its residual dependence on external concessional financing. To achieve genuine middle power status, Uzbekistan must roughly double its real economic output over the next decade, a scale of growth aligned with the shift...

Aviation

What’s Holding Back Kazakhstan’s Air Transport Market?

Kazakhstan’s aviation industry has posted steady growth in recent years. Over the past four years, passenger and cargo traffic have risen by more than 36% and 23% respectively, with an actively expanding route network. The state’s aviation development strategy prioritizes infrastructure upgrades, improved safety standards, and expanded international cooperation. Yet, despite these advances, several systemic barriers continue to prevent Kazakhstan from realizing its potential as a Central Asian aviation hub. These challenges were discussed at the New Silk Way International Transport and Logistics Business Forum and the annual TransLogistica Kazakhstan 2025 exhibition. Experts agree that Kazakhstan’s air transport market ranks among the fastest-growing globally, driven in part by geopolitical shifts that have boosted the volume of Chinese and European transit flights through its airspace. Industry Trends and Infrastructure Expansion A major airport modernization effort is underway, targeting key cities such as Astana, Almaty, Aktobe, Shymkent, and Karaganda. Renovations have already been completed in Aktau, Pavlodar, and Balkhash, while new terminals have opened in Almaty, Kyzylorda, and Shymkent. New airports are under construction in Kenderli, Zaisan, Katon-Karagai, and Arkalyk. Total investment in infrastructure has exceeded $2.9 billion. According to the Civil Aviation Committee, in 2025, Kazakh airlines transported a record 15 million passengers and 171,000 tons of cargo. Transit flights accounted for 414 million aircraft-kilometers. Deputy Chairman Sarsen Zharylgasov has stated that the country now operates 56 domestic routes, up 9% year-on-year, and maintains air links with 30 countries. International Routes and Regional Competition In 2025, 33 new international routes were launched, connecting Kazakhstan to cities including Budapest, Munich, Cairo, Shanghai, Phuket, and Delhi. Currently, 140 international routes operate under the Open Skies policy, which has applied to 15 airports since 2019. Looking ahead to 2026, new routes are planned to major global hubs, such as Singapore, Tokyo, Rome, Vienna, and New York. The long-anticipated direct U.S. flight hinges on a successful completion of the FAA's CAT-1 audit, following Kazakhstan’s passage of the preliminary technical assessment in August 2024. The 2022 air transport agreement between the U.S. and Kazakhstan remains a key step toward this goal. Air Astana plans to operate the route using a Boeing 787 Dreamliner, though delivery has been delayed to Q2 2026 due to production backlogs. Meanwhile, Uzbekistan is ramping up its own ambitions. During President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s 2025 visit to the US, Tashkent signed a deal with Boeing for 22 Dreamliners. Analysts suggest this could intensify regional competition and enhance Uzbekistan’s appeal as a transit hub. Airport Bottlenecks and Tariff Issues Despite progress in large cities, many regional airports remain hampered by chronic underinvestment and outdated tariff policies. According to Zharylgasov, tariffs at several airports have not been updated in over two decades. “We are working to completely deregulate tariffs, but the Agency for the Protection and Development of Competition does not yet support us,” he noted. Eliminating state control over airport tariffs could introduce market-based pricing, attract investors, and improve profitability, particularly for regional hubs. Digitalization Drives Efficiency Digital transformation is another key priority. Kazakhstan...

Digitalization

Kazakhstan to Launch Unified Construction Portal in 2026

Kazakhstan will launch a unified electronic platform for the construction sector on January 1, 2026, Minister of Industry and Construction Yersayin Nagaspayev announced. The digital system aims to streamline operations for both developers and homebuyers by consolidating multiple existing databases into a single portal. Presenting the draft of the new Construction Code to parliament, Nagaspayev said the industry currently relies on several fragmented information systems, creating confusion and inefficiencies. “The new portal has already been developed and passed an information security audit. The only remaining step is to integrate two systems, private and state expertise. We expect full implementation by January,” the minister told the Mazhilis. The Construction Code introduces several digital innovations, including a unique identifier for every construction project, enabling traceability throughout its lifecycle. “If we compare it to everyday life, this unique number is similar to an individual identification number (IIN) for people,” Nagaspayev explained. “It will be assigned automatically at the planning stage within the state urban development cadastre and will remain in the system until the building’s demolition.” This measure will help homeowners access electronic documentation even years after a building’s completion. Currently, many property owners struggle to retrieve original technical or project documents required for renovations or modernization. The system will also include an electronic registry of licensed construction companies, listing only those that have undergone official accreditation. Nagaspayev acknowledged that a significant number of companies and licenses exist only on paper, lacking real production capacity or qualified personnel. “This situation poses risks to construction quality and safety, encourages fictitious participation in public procurement, and distorts the real picture of employment and business activity in the sector,” he said. The new registry will enable authorities to audit existing licenses and integrate the data with other government databases for automated compliance checks. It will also introduce joint liability among market participants, with the potential to suspend or ban companies that commit serious violations. Nagaspayev also announced plans to introduce certification for construction engineers, modeled on European Union practices and adapted to Kazakhstan’s legal framework. “This certification process will be handled in a competitive environment by market participants,” he noted. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan faces a growing labor shortage in the construction sector. Some industry stakeholders are calling for simplified procedures to attract migrant workers to meet rising demand.

Tourism

Tourism in Tajikistan: Five Years of Progress and Persistent Barriers

Five years ago, Canadian researcher Christian Bleuer identified 25 key obstacles hindering the growth of Tajikistan’s tourism sector. Since then, the industry has made measurable progress but many challenges remain unresolved. Digitalization and Initial Progress Significant strides have been made in digital infrastructure. The introduction of electronic visas, online services, and the availability of eSIM cards has improved access for international travelers. Dushanbe has witnessed the opening of new hotels and restaurants, an expansion of taxi services in major cities, and the reconstruction of sections of the M41 highway. Other positive steps include training programs for tour guides, the creation of tourist information centers in Dushanbe, Khorog, and other cities, and growing competition in the hospitality and restaurant industries. Experts also note that travel bloggers and social media have, in some cases, done more to improve the country’s image than official marketing campaigns. Partial Improvements While services have improved in urban areas, regional disparities persist. Tourists can now find decent hotels and cafes in major cities, but service quality outside these hubs remains inconsistent. The e-visa system has streamlined entry procedures, although public awareness of the platform is still low. Digital tools such as Google Maps and mobile apps assist navigation in urban centers, but coverage remains sparse outside Dushanbe and Khujand. Financial infrastructure has also improved, with more ATMs available in the capital. However, access to foreign currency remains a barrier. Aviation has seen some progress under the "Open Skies" policy, with new routes to China and Uzbekistan launched, though high airfares continue to deter potential visitors. Ongoing Challenges Several systemic issues continue to hamper tourism development. Connectivity remains weak: Tajikistan ranks 117th globally for fixed internet speed and lags behind regional peers in mobile data performance, averaging under 24 Mbps. Environmental concerns also diminish the visitor experience. Litter is visible not only in rural areas but even in Dushanbe. Transport remains problematic, with the Jirgatal border crossing closed to foreigners and the Pamir Highway via the Khaburabad Pass largely inaccessible during winter months. A national ban on drones restricts opportunities for photo and video tourism. Additionally, poor coordination among tour operators, taxi drivers, and hoteliers prevents the formation of a unified tourism strategy. Structural Constraints Some limitations are more difficult to overcome. Tajikistan’s geography, landlocked and bordering Afghanistan, poses accessibility challenges. The country also lacks the architectural heritage that makes neighboring Uzbekistan a dominant player in regional cultural tourism. Urban development trends further complicate matters. The demolition of historical buildings and widespread tree-cutting in Dushanbe have eroded the capital’s aesthetic appeal. Tajikistan’s Tourism Development Strategy to 2030 acknowledges the sector’s underperformance. Its contribution to the global tourism market remains modest, constrained by low investment, weak infrastructure, and uneven service quality. Nevertheless, experts believe the sector holds untapped potential. Tourism could create employment opportunities for young people and help reduce labor migration. Realizing this potential will require stronger private sector involvement, upgraded services, and more effective international promotion.

internet access

Next Stop, Wi-Fi: Kazakhstan Pilots Satellite Internet on Rails

Just a few years ago, internet access on passenger trains in Kazakhstan seemed like an unattainable dream. Today, this service is becoming a reality. In an interview, Anuar Akhmetzhanov, Chairman of the Board of JSC Passenger Transport, told The Times of Central Asia that providing passengers with access to high-speed internet on trains is one of the key directions in the digitalization of the passenger transportation sector. Since the beginning of this year, the national company, Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (Kazakhstan Railways), together with the official distributor of the low-orbit satellite network OneWeb in Kazakhstan, has launched a pilot project to provide internet access on passenger trains. The service was first introduced on the Astana–Almaty route, and in the spring, on the Astana–Oskemen route. According to Akhmetzhanov, Kazakhstan is among the first countries in the world to implement low-orbit satellite internet on passenger trains. In addition, internet access based on Starlink technology was recently launched in pilot mode on the Astana–Borovoe electric train. “The preliminary results of the pilot project show strong demand from passengers. According to surveys, 87% of our passengers are satisfied with the quality of the internet, and the service meets their expectations,” said Akhmetzhanov. High-speed internet of up to 150 Mbps benefits both passengers and the carrier. Travelers can remain connected throughout the journey, have access to various online services, make online payments during the trip, and enjoy unlimited entertainment options. JSC Passenger Transport will, in turn, gain additional opportunities to sell tickets, control passenger boarding, provide additional services, and ensure safety control by connecting an onboard video surveillance system. “As of today, only three trains are equipped with internet. Work is underway to expand the service to all types of trains. Based on testing results, we plan to roll out the solution to all major routes as early as next year,” noted Akhmetzhanov. One of the main questions for passengers is whether the introduction of internet services on trains will affect ticket prices. On this point, Akhmetzhanov stated that an increase in ticket prices is not currently under consideration. “However, to reduce and offset expenses, the national carrier, together with its partner, is conducting market research on the demand for paid internet packages with higher speeds,” he said. For example, the operator Jusan Mobile offers paid internet services; currently, passengers can choose tariffs for the entire trip or purchase 1 GB packages with the option to increase the volume as needed. There are no restrictions on which internet resources can be accessed. In the near future, JSC Passenger Transportation is preparing to launch internet services on trains traveling on western routes, such as Aktobe–Almaty, Kyzylorda–Semey, and others. The Train Internet project, based on satellite technology, ensures a stable, high-speed connection even in remote and hard-to-reach regions where traditional mobile services are limited. For Kazakhstan, with its vast territory and long travel distances, providing internet access on passenger trains is a service in high demand.

Digitalization

Kazakhstan to Establish Ministry for AI Development, Digital Code, and Crypto Asset Fund

In his annual address to the people of Kazakhstan, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev identified digitalization and artificial intelligence (AI) as key priorities for the country’s development. The president announced a series of institutional and legislative initiatives aimed at positioning Kazakhstan at the forefront of the global technological transformation. Tokayev emphasized that digitalization and AI should form the foundation for modernizing both the national economy and the system of public administration. He instructed the government to establish a dedicated ministry to oversee the development and regulation of artificial intelligence tools. “The new ministry should be headed by a specialist at the level of deputy prime minister,” Tokayev said. Currently, the Ministry of Digital Development, Innovation, and Aerospace Industry is the state body responsible for digitalization in Kazakhstan. The new ministry is expected to be created on its basis. In addition, Tokayev called for the development of a dedicated legal framework to support the large-scale adoption of AI. “The government is tasked with ensuring the total implementation of artificial intelligence to modernize all areas of the economy. As a first step, the adoption of the Digital Code should be accelerated,” Tokayev stated. According to Tokayev, the Digital Code will serve as a foundational document outlining Kazakhstan’s strategic directions for digitalization. It will address issues related to artificial intelligence, the platform economy, big data usage, and other areas central to integrating Kazakhstan into the global digital economy. Tokayev also announced plans to establish a state fund for digital assets, based on the investment corporation of the National Bank. “This fund will accumulate a strategic crypto reserve from the most promising assets of the new digital financial order,” he explained. He stressed the urgency of building a comprehensive ecosystem for digital assets and highlighted the importance of integrating the digital tenge, recently launched in Kazakhstan, into financing mechanisms provided by the National Fund. "Despite global instability, we have taken a decisive step into the era of total digitalization and artificial intelligence. My main mission is to ensure the stable socio-economic development and security of Kazakhstan in these turbulent and dangerous times,” Tokayev said. “The rapid development of artificial intelligence is already influencing people’s worldviews and behavior, especially among young people. There is no alternative, as this process is radically changing the world order and the way of life of all humanity. Therefore, I have set the strategically important task of transforming Kazakhstan into a fully-fledged digital country within three years." As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan in July launched alem.cloud, the most powerful supercomputer cluster in Central Asia, designed to support the development and implementation of artificial intelligence technologies.