Foreign Trade - The Times Of Central Asia

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Foreign Trade

Kazakhstan’s Exports Rise Nearly 10% in First Quarter of 2026

Kazakhstan increased its foreign trade turnover to $32.9 billion during the first quarter of 2026, while exports rose by nearly 10% year-on-year, according to the country’s Ministry of Trade and Integration. The ministry stated that Kazakhstan completed the January-March period with a “confident strengthening” of its foreign trade position. Amid continued strong business activity and expanding export potential, total trade turnover reached $32.9 billion, an increase of 10.5% compared to the same period in 2025, when the figure stood at $29.8 billion. “The dynamics confirm the resilience of the country’s foreign economic sector and the gradual strengthening of higher value-added products in the structure of Kazakhstan’s exports,” the ministry said. Total exports for the first quarter of 2026 rose by 9.4% to $18 billion, while imports increased by 11.8% to $14.9 billion compared to the same period last year. According to the ministry, the faster growth in imports was primarily driven by increased purchases of investment and technological goods needed for the modernization of Kazakhstan’s industrial, energy and transport infrastructure. Among the most notable increases was the import of electric generating units, which rose to $416.8 million, more than five times the previous level. Imports of gas turbines and aircraft engines, railway locomotives, and equipment for processing and sorting raw materials also increased significantly. “This structure of imports indicates sustained high investment demand within the economy and the active implementation of infrastructure and industrial projects,” the ministry said. Officials also highlighted the performance of Kazakhstan’s non-commodity trade sector. Foreign trade turnover in non-resource goods reached $20.4 billion during the first quarter of 2026, up 13.5% year-on-year. Non-commodity exports rose by 23.4% to $6.9 billion, becoming one of the main drivers of changes in Kazakhstan’s foreign trade structure. The main non-resource exports included copper and copper cathodes, silver, uranium, ferroalloys, animal feed products, and sunflower oil. Exports of sunflower oil increased by nearly 60% to $277.8 million, reflecting what the ministry described as the growing competitiveness of Kazakhstan’s processed agricultural products. Ferroalloy exports rose by 20.1%, pointing to continued growth in the metallurgical sector and wider export markets for domestically manufactured industrial goods. “Kazakhstan’s foreign trade geography remains steadily diversified,” the ministry stated. “China became the country’s largest trading partner in the first quarter, with trade turnover reaching $7.8 billion and accounting for 23.8% of total foreign trade.” Russia retained second place with bilateral trade totaling $6.5 billion, remaining Kazakhstan’s key market for imports and industrial cooperation. Italy, Turkey, and Uzbekistan also ranked among Kazakhstan’s largest trading partners. The ministry also noted Kazakhstan’s export position in Europe. Trade turnover with Italy exceeded $3.4 billion during the first quarter, with Kazakh exports accounting for more than $3 billion of that total. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan aims to increase non-commodity exports to $52 billion by 2030.

Trade

Kyrgyzstan Prioritizes Export Support as External Trade Declines

Kyrgyzstan is intensifying efforts to support domestic exporters as the country faces a sustained decline in foreign trade. Authorities now regard export development as a central pillar of economic policy. First Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Daniyar Amangeldiyev reiterated this position during a meeting of the Export Development Council on March 24. The government is considering a range of practical measures aimed at strengthening export capacity. Among them is a pilot programme to partially reimburse transportation and logistics costs. The initiative is intended to reduce the price of Kyrgyz goods in foreign markets and enhance their competitiveness. At the same time, officials plan to expand access to financing through a new preferential credit facility titled “Export Contract Financing.” The mechanism is designed to address exporters’ cash-flow constraints and support working capital, backed by insurance instruments and state guarantees. These steps come amid a significant deterioration in trade performance. According to the National Statistical Committee, Kyrgyzstan’s exports fell by 20.3% in January 2026, while imports increased by 6.1%. The decline reflects a broader trend. In 2025, exports dropped by 44.5%, while imports rose by 3.9%. Total foreign trade turnover reached $15.8 billion, representing a decrease of 10.2% compared to 2024. Kyrgyzstan’s export geography remains relatively concentrated. In 2025, the country’s main export destinations were Russia (22.9%), Kazakhstan (15.9%), Switzerland (15.4%), Uzbekistan (14.2%), and the United Kingdom (8.2%). Imports, meanwhile, were dominated by China (37.2%), followed by Russia (24.6%) and Kazakhstan (10.9%). Such concentration increases the economy’s vulnerability to fluctuations in demand among a limited number of trading partners. The sharp fall in exports was driven largely by declining gold shipments, Kyrgyzstan’s principal export commodity. According to the Ministry of Economy, gold exports fell by a factor of 3.7 in 2025. Gold accounted for 23.9% of total exports, underscoring the country’s dependence on a single commodity. Both external and domestic factors contributed to the downturn. Weaker demand in key partner markets, including Russia and Kazakhstan, reduced export volumes. At the same time, temporary government restrictions on the export of certain goods, such as scrap metal and livestock, also constrained trade flows.

Chinese Investment

The Illusion of Chinese Investment in Kazakhstan

Concerns about how Chinese businesses operate abroad — and the challenges already confronting Kazakhstani entrepreneurs — have resurfaced following a recent letter to the prime minister from an association of oil service companies reporting price dumping. Despite these developments, Kazakhstani experts remain hesitant to discuss the negative effects of China’s growing influence in the country’s real economy. Technological Dependence The reluctance is unsurprising. Astana’s official policy seeks broad rapprochement with Beijing, spanning economic, political, and cultural spheres. Given the power imbalance, Kazakhstan avoids public statements that might offend its wealthier partner, particularly in the media, which China monitors closely. As a result, the recent complaint by the PetroCouncil — an oil and gas association representing more than 150 domestic service companies — about dumping by foreign, mainly Chinese, firms has been met with silence from local experts. In a letter addressed to Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov, the PetroCouncil warned that foreign firms, particularly from China, have been offering services to major Kazakhstani enterprises at prices 60–70% below market value. This, they argue, is forcing out local businesses, reducing Kazakhstani content, eroding tax revenue and employment, diminishing engineering expertise, and threatening industrial safety. We asked PetroCouncil Managing Director Daniel Zholdybaev why foreign companies have come to dominate Kazakhstan’s oil and gas sector and whether the competence of local personnel or service providers is a factor. According to Zholdybaev, the dominance is rooted in how foreign operators first entered Kazakhstan’s market: by bringing their own technologies. This created long-term dependency not only on their expertise but also on foreign suppliers. “Chevron, for instance, maintains a vetted list of approved suppliers, and wherever the company operates, it only works with those on that list,” Zholdybaev explained. While Kazakhstan continues to develop domestic manufacturing capabilities, local firms are still barred from participating in high-risk operations such as work on wells with extreme pressure or temperature conditions. Zholdybaev noted that Kazakhstan’s three major fields — Tengiz, Karachaganak, and Kashagan — account for 90 percent of oil and gas imports. The operators of these projects are mainly Western companies. Russia, due to international sanctions, plays only a marginal role in procurement despite maintaining a presence in Kazakhstan. However, it is Chinese companies, actively welcomed by the state, that have introduced the issue of price dumping. Chinese firms operating in Kazakhstan’s oil and gas industry maintain closed procurement systems, sourcing goods and services almost exclusively from Chinese suppliers. As a result, Chinese investment brings minimal benefit to Kazakhstan’s economy. Even construction contracts often return to China. Russian observers, typically sensitive to Central Asia’s dealings with China and the United States, have also remained largely silent on this issue. A rare exception was political analyst Yuri Baranchik, who posted a sharply critical comment on his Telegram channel: “This is a clear example of what happens when Chinese companies are allowed full access to the domestic market,” he wrote. “They dump prices to bankrupt local businesses, monopolize the sector, and then dictate terms. Now the Kazakh government must figure...

Economy

Trade in Central Asia: China Deepens Influence, Europe Expands Presence, Region Seeks New Markets

Central Asia remains a theater of active economic competition, with countries in the region striving to diversify external partnerships and reduce dependence on traditional power centers, Russia and China. While both continue to dominate foreign trade, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are increasingly exploring new directions. The region’s evolving trade dynamics reflect each country's economic characteristics. Kazakhstan is driven by energy and metals exports, Uzbekistan by manufacturing and resource processing, while Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan rely heavily on remittances and raw material exports. Amid global shifts and intensified competition for markets, Central Asian states are gradually shaping more multipolar trade strategies, opening up new routes and partnerships. Turkmenistan is excluded from this analysis due to the opacity of its national statistics. Kazakhstan As Central Asia’s largest economy, Kazakhstan relies heavily on natural resource extraction. Its main exports include oil, gas, metals, coal, grain, and agricultural products. Imports consist primarily of machinery, chemicals, vehicles, and consumer goods. Key export partners include Italy (21.6%), China (18.6%), Russia (10.2%), the Netherlands (7.4%), Turkey (4.7%), and Uzbekistan (4.3%). On the import side, China (29%) and Russia (28.8%) dominate, followed by Germany (4.8%), South Korea (3.7%), the United States (3.6%), and Turkey (2.5%). Kazakhstan has maintained a positive trade balance, buoyed by consistent demand for raw materials. In January-July 2025, the country’s foreign trade turnover totaled $78.18 billion, down 2.6% from the same period in 2024. Exports declined by 6.4% to $43.58 billion, while imports rose by 2.6% to $34.6 billion. Uzbekistan Uzbekistan's economy is focused on agriculture, textiles, natural resources, and manufacturing. Major exports include textiles, gold, gas, automobiles, cotton, and fruit. Imports are led by machinery, equipment, chemicals, and petroleum products. In the first half of 2025, foreign trade turnover reached $44.4 billion, up 19.9% year-on-year. Exports rose 34.9% to $20.1 billion, while imports increased 9.9% to $24.29 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $4.18 billion. Uzbekistan trades with 197 countries. Its largest trade partners are China (18.2%), Russia (16.1%), Kazakhstan (5.9%), Turkey (3.6%), and South Korea (2.2%). Export destinations include Russia (12.3%), China (5.5%), Kazakhstan (4.0%), Afghanistan (3.7%), Turkey (3.0%), France (2.6%), the UAE (1.8%), Kyrgyzstan (1.6%), Tajikistan (1.4%), and Pakistan (1.2%). Imports mainly come from China (28.7%), Russia (19.3%), Kazakhstan (7.6%), Turkey (4.1%), South Korea (3.9%), Germany (2.8%), and India (2.6%). Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyzstan, with limited natural resources, is heavily dependent on foreign trade. Its economy is rooted in agriculture, mining, and textiles. Key exports include gold and agricultural products, while imports are dominated by machinery, vehicles, petroleum products, and chemicals. From January to June 2025, foreign trade turnover fell 12.4% year-on-year to $6.99 billion. Exports made up only 15% of total trade, underscoring a continued trade deficit. Main partners remain Kazakhstan, Russia, and China. Tajikistan Tajikistan’s economy is centered on agriculture, hydropower, textiles, and mining. In January-August 2025, foreign trade turnover rose 16.8% year-on-year to $6.73 billion. Exports totaled $1.63 billion, while imports reached $5.1 billion, more than triple the export volume. Main exports are aluminum, textiles, agricultural goods, and minerals; imports...

Kazakhstan's economy

Falling Exports Undermine Kazakhstan’s Economic Stability

Kazakhstan's export revenues fell by 9.2% in the first five months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, dealing a fresh blow to the country’s economy. According to data compiled by Finprom.kz, total goods exports dropped to $29.8 billion, down from $32.8 billion, a loss of more than $3 billion. Commodity Dependency Drives Decline The steepest decline was recorded in the fuel and energy sector, which saw a shortfall of $2.4 billion. Total exports of oil, gas, and related raw materials amounted to $16.9 billion from January to May, a 12.6% decrease year-on-year. The downturn also extended to Kazakhstan’s manufacturing sectors: metallurgical exports fell by 6.5%, the chemical industry by 17.7%, and machine building by 21.7%. While the share of fuel and energy products in Kazakhstan’s export structure dropped to 56.9% in January–May 2025, down from the 65–67% range seen between 2019 and 2024, this shift was not driven by a rise in high value-added goods. These accounted for just 13.5% of total exports. Oil and Metals Lead Revenue Losses Oil was the primary source of lost export revenue. The volume of crude shipments declined by 6.6%, from 31.2 to 29.1 million tons, while export earnings fell by 13.9%, costing the country $2.6 billion. Other key raw material categories also recorded substantial losses: refined copper exports fell by 20.6%, copper ores and concentrates by 26.8%, iron ore by 16.4%, aluminum by 10.4%, and uranium by 24.2%. Only a few sectors posted gains. Exports of ferroalloys rose by 8.1%, wheat and meslin by 58.3%, and rolled iron by 13.1%. One standout performer was heat-generating assemblies for nuclear power plants produced in Ust-Kamenogorsk, their exports nearly doubled and are supplied exclusively to China. Trade Imbalance Worsens The export slump contributed to a broader contraction in Kazakhstan’s foreign trade. Total trade turnover from January to May stood at $53.5 billion, down 4.5% from the previous year. Imports, however, increased by 2.2%, further widening the trade gap. Kazakhstan has recorded lower export volumes each month of 2025 compared to 2024. In January, exports were down nearly 14%. Although the gap narrowed slightly in subsequent months, May figures remained below last year's levels. Italy continues to be Kazakhstan’s largest export market, accounting for 23.1% of total exports. Despite an 11% decline in volume, Italian purchases totaled $6.9 billion. China is the second-largest destination, increasing its share from 17.4% to 17.6%, with $5.2 billion in imports. Russia ranks third, importing $2.9 billion in goods, including automobiles, chemical products, and metal ores. Analysts warn that Kazakhstan’s continued reliance on raw materials and its low share of high-tech exports represent systemic risks. Without substantial industrial modernization and entry into new markets, the country remains vulnerable to global commodity price fluctuations, endangering long-term macroeconomic stability.

Bilateral Trade

China Overtakes Russia as Tajikistan’s Top Trading Partner for the First Time

For the first time in over two decades, China has become Tajikistan’s largest trading partner, surpassing Russia in bilateral trade volume, according to newly released data from the Tajikistan Statistics Agency. A New Leader in Foreign Trade Between January and May 2025, trade between Tajikistan and China reached $964 million, an increase of nearly 30% compared to the same period in 2024. China's share in Tajikistan’s total foreign trade stood at 24.8%, edging ahead of Russia’s 23.2%. This surge was driven largely by Chinese exports to Tajikistan, which totaled $787 million. Tajik exports to China reached $177 million, leaving a significant trade imbalance in China’s favor, though the overall volume of bilateral engagement continues to rise rapidly. Russia had held the position of Tajikistan’s leading trade partner for more than 20 years. However, during the first five months of 2025, total trade between the two countries reached approximately $900 million. Of that, only $42 million represented Tajik exports to Russia, while Russian imports totaled $858 million. Despite a 9.3% increase year-on-year, the growth was insufficient to maintain its top position. Uzbekistan Reemerges as a Key Player Historically, Uzbekistan was Tajikistan’s main trade partner during the 1990s. In 1995, trade between the two countries reached $250 million, double the combined trade volume with other post-Soviet states at the time. However, political tensions toward the end of the decade led to a sharp decline, with trade falling to just $13 million by 2014. Following the election of Shavkat Mirziyoyev as President of Uzbekistan in 2016, bilateral relations have markedly improved. Trade between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan is once again on the rise, reaching $238 million in the first five months of 2025. China: Tajikistan’s Leading Investor and Creditor China’s growing economic influence in Tajikistan extends beyond trade. It is now the country’s largest foreign investor, having overtaken Russia in 2017. According to the State Committee for Investment and State Property Management, accumulated Chinese investment in Tajikistan totaled $5.1 billion as of Q2 2025. In comparison, Russian investments stand at approximately $2 billion, less than half. China is also Tajikistan’s largest external creditor. As of early 2025, Dushanbe’s debt to Beijing stood at around $1 billion, representing nearly one-third of the country’s total external debt. This strategic pivot in Tajikistan’s economic orientation reflects a broader regional trend. Across Central Asia, Beijing continues to expand its footprint through a combination of trade, infrastructure investment, financial lending, and diplomatic engagement.