Foreign Trade - The Times Of Central Asia

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Foreign Trade

Kyrgyzstan Exports Recover After Sharp Fall in Gold Sales

Kyrgyzstan's exports have begun to recover after a sharp decline in 2025, when the value of its gold exports plunged by nearly three-quarters. In the first eight months of 2026, exports rose by nearly 20%. Even so, for every dollar earned from selling goods overseas, Kyrgyzstan spent more than four dollars on imports. According to a report by the National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic, exports fell by 41.2% in 2025 to $3 billion. Imports, meanwhile, continued to grow, reaching $13.7 billion. As a result, the country spent $10.6 billion more on foreign goods than it earned from selling its own products abroad. A year earlier, the gap stood at $7.3 billion. The main reason for the decline was a sharp drop in overseas sales of gold, one of Kyrgyzstan's principal sources of export revenue. Their value fell from approximately $2.5 billion in 2024 to $683 million in 2025. Exports of other goods also fell 11.2%. Trade was also affected by weaker demand from Russia and Kazakhstan, two major markets for Kyrgyz producers, as well as temporary restrictions on exports of certain goods, including scrap metal and livestock. Kyrgyzstan's trade is closely tied to neighboring countries. It belongs to the Eurasian Economic Union, alongside Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Armenia. Members trade with one another without standard customs duties on most goods. Russia and Kazakhstan remain the largest buyers of Kyrgyz products and, together with China, supply most imports. The imbalance is particularly pronounced in trade with China. Chinese goods account for more than a third of Kyrgyzstan's total imports, while China receives only around 5% of its exports. Uzbekistan also remains an important market for Kyrgyz products. Outside the region, Switzerland and the United Kingdom are significant destinations. The downturn continued in the first half of 2026, when exports fell another 11.1% compared with the same period a year earlier. By the end of August, however, the picture had changed. Figures for the first eight months showed exports rising 19.5% to $2.3 billion. Gold exports also rebounded sharply, reaching $770.6 million, more than in the whole of 2025. Over half of that amount was exported in August alone. Imports also increased, reaching $9.7 billion. The recovery in overseas sales has therefore not yet significantly narrowed the gap between exports and imports. A trade deficit does not mean Kyrgyzstan is losing the equivalent amount from its government budget. It measures the difference between the value of goods imported into the country and those sold abroad. Imports are paid for by businesses and consumers, with funds coming from various sources, including remittances from migrant workers and investment. Services have become one of the fastest-growing areas of Kyrgyzstan's international trade, providing another source of funds for imports. According to preliminary figures, in 2025 the country earned $3.55 billion from services exports, up 20% from the previous year. Revenue from foreign visitors rose 36.9% to $1.19 billion. In international statistics, this category includes travelers' spending on accommodation, food, shopping, and other services during...

Foreign Trade

Switzerland Becomes Tajikistan’s Third-Largest Trading Partner

Switzerland became Tajikistan’s third-largest trading partner in the first five months of 2026, overtaking Kazakhstan and ranking behind only China and Russia, Avesta reported, citing Tajikistan’s statistics agency. Trade turnover between Tajikistan and Switzerland exceeded $1.013 billion between January and May, marking a sharp rise that pushed the country into the top three trading partners for the first time. The shift represents a significant change from 2025, when Kazakhstan held third place with trade turnover exceeding $1.19 billion, while trade with Switzerland totaled about $386.5 million, nearly half the 2024 level. In the first five months of 2026, Kazakhstan fell to fourth place with around $649 million in bilateral trade, while Switzerland moved up to third. Switzerland also became the leading destination for Tajik exports, accounting for 36.3% of the country’s total exports, or $508.2 million. China ranked second with a 25.7% share, followed by Turkey at 7.6%. China and Russia remain Tajikistan’s two largest trading partners overall. Trade with China reached nearly $1.44 billion during the reporting period, up 50% year-on-year, while trade with Russia rose 23.1% to $1.11 billion. In imports, China accounted for 24.7% of total inbound trade, followed by Russia at 24%, Kazakhstan at 13.8%, and Switzerland at 11.6%. Tajikistan’s total foreign trade turnover for January-May 2026 exceeded $5.7 billion, up 48.5% from the same period a year earlier. Imports accounted for nearly $4.37 billion, while exports totaled about $1.4 billion. The country’s main exports included mineral products, base metals and metal goods, textiles, and agricultural products. Imports were dominated by mineral products, machinery and equipment, metals, food products, and chemicals. The sharp increase in trade with Switzerland likely reflects the role of precious metals and other commodity-linked transactions in Tajikistan’s trade structure.

Foreign Trade

Kazakhstan’s Exports Rise Nearly 10% in First Quarter of 2026

Kazakhstan increased its foreign trade turnover to $32.9 billion during the first quarter of 2026, while exports rose by nearly 10% year-on-year, according to the country’s Ministry of Trade and Integration. The ministry stated that Kazakhstan completed the January-March period with a “confident strengthening” of its foreign trade position. Amid continued strong business activity and expanding export potential, total trade turnover reached $32.9 billion, an increase of 10.5% compared to the same period in 2025, when the figure stood at $29.8 billion. “The dynamics confirm the resilience of the country’s foreign economic sector and the gradual strengthening of higher value-added products in the structure of Kazakhstan’s exports,” the ministry said. Total exports for the first quarter of 2026 rose by 9.4% to $18 billion, while imports increased by 11.8% to $14.9 billion compared to the same period last year. According to the ministry, the faster growth in imports was primarily driven by increased purchases of investment and technological goods needed for the modernization of Kazakhstan’s industrial, energy and transport infrastructure. Among the most notable increases was the import of electric generating units, which rose to $416.8 million, more than five times the previous level. Imports of gas turbines and aircraft engines, railway locomotives, and equipment for processing and sorting raw materials also increased significantly. “This structure of imports indicates sustained high investment demand within the economy and the active implementation of infrastructure and industrial projects,” the ministry said. Officials also highlighted the performance of Kazakhstan’s non-commodity trade sector. Foreign trade turnover in non-resource goods reached $20.4 billion during the first quarter of 2026, up 13.5% year-on-year. Non-commodity exports rose by 23.4% to $6.9 billion, becoming one of the main drivers of changes in Kazakhstan’s foreign trade structure. The main non-resource exports included copper and copper cathodes, silver, uranium, ferroalloys, animal feed products, and sunflower oil. Exports of sunflower oil increased by nearly 60% to $277.8 million, reflecting what the ministry described as the growing competitiveness of Kazakhstan’s processed agricultural products. Ferroalloy exports rose by 20.1%, pointing to continued growth in the metallurgical sector and wider export markets for domestically manufactured industrial goods. “Kazakhstan’s foreign trade geography remains steadily diversified,” the ministry stated. “China became the country’s largest trading partner in the first quarter, with trade turnover reaching $7.8 billion and accounting for 23.8% of total foreign trade.” Russia retained second place with bilateral trade totaling $6.5 billion, remaining Kazakhstan’s key market for imports and industrial cooperation. Italy, Turkey, and Uzbekistan also ranked among Kazakhstan’s largest trading partners. The ministry also noted Kazakhstan’s export position in Europe. Trade turnover with Italy exceeded $3.4 billion during the first quarter, with Kazakh exports accounting for more than $3 billion of that total. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan aims to increase non-commodity exports to $52 billion by 2030.

Trade

Kyrgyzstan Prioritizes Export Support as External Trade Declines

Kyrgyzstan is intensifying efforts to support domestic exporters as the country faces a sustained decline in foreign trade. Authorities now regard export development as a central pillar of economic policy. First Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Daniyar Amangeldiyev reiterated this position during a meeting of the Export Development Council on March 24. The government is considering a range of practical measures aimed at strengthening export capacity. Among them is a pilot programme to partially reimburse transportation and logistics costs. The initiative is intended to reduce the price of Kyrgyz goods in foreign markets and enhance their competitiveness. At the same time, officials plan to expand access to financing through a new preferential credit facility titled “Export Contract Financing.” The mechanism is designed to address exporters’ cash-flow constraints and support working capital, backed by insurance instruments and state guarantees. These steps come amid a significant deterioration in trade performance. According to the National Statistical Committee, Kyrgyzstan’s exports fell by 20.3% in January 2026, while imports increased by 6.1%. The decline reflects a broader trend. In 2025, exports dropped by 44.5%, while imports rose by 3.9%. Total foreign trade turnover reached $15.8 billion, representing a decrease of 10.2% compared to 2024. Kyrgyzstan’s export geography remains relatively concentrated. In 2025, the country’s main export destinations were Russia (22.9%), Kazakhstan (15.9%), Switzerland (15.4%), Uzbekistan (14.2%), and the United Kingdom (8.2%). Imports, meanwhile, were dominated by China (37.2%), followed by Russia (24.6%) and Kazakhstan (10.9%). Such concentration increases the economy’s vulnerability to fluctuations in demand among a limited number of trading partners. The sharp fall in exports was driven largely by declining gold shipments, Kyrgyzstan’s principal export commodity. According to the Ministry of Economy, gold exports fell by a factor of 3.7 in 2025. Gold accounted for 23.9% of total exports, underscoring the country’s dependence on a single commodity. Both external and domestic factors contributed to the downturn. Weaker demand in key partner markets, including Russia and Kazakhstan, reduced export volumes. At the same time, temporary government restrictions on the export of certain goods, such as scrap metal and livestock, also constrained trade flows.

Chinese Investment

The Illusion of Chinese Investment in Kazakhstan

Concerns about how Chinese businesses operate abroad — and the challenges already confronting Kazakhstani entrepreneurs — have resurfaced following a recent letter to the prime minister from an association of oil service companies reporting price dumping. Despite these developments, Kazakhstani experts remain hesitant to discuss the negative effects of China’s growing influence in the country’s real economy. Technological Dependence The reluctance is unsurprising. Astana’s official policy seeks broad rapprochement with Beijing, spanning economic, political, and cultural spheres. Given the power imbalance, Kazakhstan avoids public statements that might offend its wealthier partner, particularly in the media, which China monitors closely. As a result, the recent complaint by the PetroCouncil — an oil and gas association representing more than 150 domestic service companies — about dumping by foreign, mainly Chinese, firms has been met with silence from local experts. In a letter addressed to Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov, the PetroCouncil warned that foreign firms, particularly from China, have been offering services to major Kazakhstani enterprises at prices 60–70% below market value. This, they argue, is forcing out local businesses, reducing Kazakhstani content, eroding tax revenue and employment, diminishing engineering expertise, and threatening industrial safety. We asked PetroCouncil Managing Director Daniel Zholdybaev why foreign companies have come to dominate Kazakhstan’s oil and gas sector and whether the competence of local personnel or service providers is a factor. According to Zholdybaev, the dominance is rooted in how foreign operators first entered Kazakhstan’s market: by bringing their own technologies. This created long-term dependency not only on their expertise but also on foreign suppliers. “Chevron, for instance, maintains a vetted list of approved suppliers, and wherever the company operates, it only works with those on that list,” Zholdybaev explained. While Kazakhstan continues to develop domestic manufacturing capabilities, local firms are still barred from participating in high-risk operations such as work on wells with extreme pressure or temperature conditions. Zholdybaev noted that Kazakhstan’s three major fields — Tengiz, Karachaganak, and Kashagan — account for 90 percent of oil and gas imports. The operators of these projects are mainly Western companies. Russia, due to international sanctions, plays only a marginal role in procurement despite maintaining a presence in Kazakhstan. However, it is Chinese companies, actively welcomed by the state, that have introduced the issue of price dumping. Chinese firms operating in Kazakhstan’s oil and gas industry maintain closed procurement systems, sourcing goods and services almost exclusively from Chinese suppliers. As a result, Chinese investment brings minimal benefit to Kazakhstan’s economy. Even construction contracts often return to China. Russian observers, typically sensitive to Central Asia’s dealings with China and the United States, have also remained largely silent on this issue. A rare exception was political analyst Yuri Baranchik, who posted a sharply critical comment on his Telegram channel: “This is a clear example of what happens when Chinese companies are allowed full access to the domestic market,” he wrote. “They dump prices to bankrupt local businesses, monopolize the sector, and then dictate terms. Now the Kazakh government must figure...

Economy

Trade in Central Asia: China Deepens Influence, Europe Expands Presence, Region Seeks New Markets

Central Asia remains a theater of active economic competition, with countries in the region striving to diversify external partnerships and reduce dependence on traditional power centers, Russia and China. While both continue to dominate foreign trade, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan are increasingly exploring new directions. The region’s evolving trade dynamics reflect each country's economic characteristics. Kazakhstan is driven by energy and metals exports, Uzbekistan by manufacturing and resource processing, while Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan rely heavily on remittances and raw material exports. Amid global shifts and intensified competition for markets, Central Asian states are gradually shaping more multipolar trade strategies, opening up new routes and partnerships. Turkmenistan is excluded from this analysis due to the opacity of its national statistics. Kazakhstan As Central Asia’s largest economy, Kazakhstan relies heavily on natural resource extraction. Its main exports include oil, gas, metals, coal, grain, and agricultural products. Imports consist primarily of machinery, chemicals, vehicles, and consumer goods. Key export partners include Italy (21.6%), China (18.6%), Russia (10.2%), the Netherlands (7.4%), Turkey (4.7%), and Uzbekistan (4.3%). On the import side, China (29%) and Russia (28.8%) dominate, followed by Germany (4.8%), South Korea (3.7%), the United States (3.6%), and Turkey (2.5%). Kazakhstan has maintained a positive trade balance, buoyed by consistent demand for raw materials. In January-July 2025, the country’s foreign trade turnover totaled $78.18 billion, down 2.6% from the same period in 2024. Exports declined by 6.4% to $43.58 billion, while imports rose by 2.6% to $34.6 billion. Uzbekistan Uzbekistan's economy is focused on agriculture, textiles, natural resources, and manufacturing. Major exports include textiles, gold, gas, automobiles, cotton, and fruit. Imports are led by machinery, equipment, chemicals, and petroleum products. In the first half of 2025, foreign trade turnover reached $44.4 billion, up 19.9% year-on-year. Exports rose 34.9% to $20.1 billion, while imports increased 9.9% to $24.29 billion, leaving a trade deficit of $4.18 billion. Uzbekistan trades with 197 countries. Its largest trade partners are China (18.2%), Russia (16.1%), Kazakhstan (5.9%), Turkey (3.6%), and South Korea (2.2%). Export destinations include Russia (12.3%), China (5.5%), Kazakhstan (4.0%), Afghanistan (3.7%), Turkey (3.0%), France (2.6%), the UAE (1.8%), Kyrgyzstan (1.6%), Tajikistan (1.4%), and Pakistan (1.2%). Imports mainly come from China (28.7%), Russia (19.3%), Kazakhstan (7.6%), Turkey (4.1%), South Korea (3.9%), Germany (2.8%), and India (2.6%). Kyrgyzstan Kyrgyzstan, with limited natural resources, is heavily dependent on foreign trade. Its economy is rooted in agriculture, mining, and textiles. Key exports include gold and agricultural products, while imports are dominated by machinery, vehicles, petroleum products, and chemicals. From January to June 2025, foreign trade turnover fell 12.4% year-on-year to $6.99 billion. Exports made up only 15% of total trade, underscoring a continued trade deficit. Main partners remain Kazakhstan, Russia, and China. Tajikistan Tajikistan’s economy is centered on agriculture, hydropower, textiles, and mining. In January-August 2025, foreign trade turnover rose 16.8% year-on-year to $6.73 billion. Exports totaled $1.63 billion, while imports reached $5.1 billion, more than triple the export volume. Main exports are aluminum, textiles, agricultural goods, and minerals; imports...