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Middle Powers

Which Central Asian States Qualify as Middle Powers in 2025?

As global power shifts toward multipolarity, Central Asia’s states are emerging as active regional players. This article assesses which of the five republics—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—qualify as middle powers in 2025, based on economic strength, diplomatic reach, strategic capacity, and governance. Kazakhstan stands as the region’s only consolidated middle power, balancing fiscal stability, institutional reform, and multi-vector diplomacy. Uzbekistan is a rising aspirant, propelled by reforms but still reliant on external financing and centralized authority. The remaining states remain constrained by dependence and limited institutional depth. Together, they reflect a region increasingly capable of shaping, rather than merely absorbing, global and regional change. A comparative analysis of five Central Asian republics shows how far each has advanced toward this status. 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This article assesses which of the five republics—Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan—qualify as middle powers in 2025, based on economic strength, diplomatic reach, strategic capacity, and governance. Kazakhstan stands as the region’s only consolidated middle power, balancing fiscal stability, institutional reform, and multi-vector diplomacy. Uzbekistan is a rising aspirant, propelled by reforms but still reliant on external financing and centralized authority. The remaining states remain constrained by dependence and limited institutional depth. Together, they reflect a region increasingly capable of shaping, rather than merely absorbing, global and regional change. A comparative analysis of five Central Asian republics shows how far each has advanced toward this status. Economic Power Economic autonomy is a defining attribute of middle-power capability, enabling states to project influence, sustain policy independence, and finance external engagement. In Central Asia, dependence on Official Development Assistance (ODA) and remittances often reflects constrained fiscal capacity and limited domestic capital formation, while diversified, resilient economies underpin strategic autonomy. Key indicators—GDP per capita, credit ratings, debt sustainability, and export diversification—illuminate the region’s economic hierarchy. Kazakhstan stands as Central Asia’s only consolidated economic middle power. Resource-backed growth, a prudent fiscal regime, and a sovereign wealth fund (the National Fund of Kazakhstan) have anchored macroeconomic stability. With a “BBB” credit rating or equivalent from major agencies, Kazakhstan demonstrates sound debt management and policy credibility. Ongoing diversification efforts under the new economic policies—from renewables to financial modernization—aim to reduce hydrocarbon dependence and deepen integration into global supply chains. Its role as a trans-Caspian logistics hub enhances both strategic and commercial influence. Uzbekistan, by contrast, is an emerging frontier market propelled by post-2017 reforms in currency liberalization, taxation, and state-enterprise restructuring. Rapid GDP growth and expanding private-sector activity mark its trajectory toward fiscal autonomy, though continued ODA inflows averaging around $1.1 billion to 1.3 billion annually, primarily from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the World Bank, and bilateral partners such as Japan, the United States, and the European Union, highlight its residual dependence on external concessional financing. To achieve genuine middle power status, Uzbekistan must roughly double its real economic output over the next decade, a scale of growth aligned with the shift...

Aviation

What’s Holding Back Kazakhstan’s Air Transport Market?

Kazakhstan’s aviation industry has posted steady growth in recent years. Over the past four years, passenger and cargo traffic have risen by more than 36% and 23% respectively, with an actively expanding route network. The state’s aviation development strategy prioritizes infrastructure upgrades, improved safety standards, and expanded international cooperation. Yet, despite these advances, several systemic barriers continue to prevent Kazakhstan from realizing its potential as a Central Asian aviation hub. These challenges were discussed at the New Silk Way International Transport and Logistics Business Forum and the annual TransLogistica Kazakhstan 2025 exhibition. Experts agree that Kazakhstan’s air transport market ranks among the fastest-growing globally, driven in part by geopolitical shifts that have boosted the volume of Chinese and European transit flights through its airspace. Industry Trends and Infrastructure Expansion A major airport modernization effort is underway, targeting key cities such as Astana, Almaty, Aktobe, Shymkent, and Karaganda. Renovations have already been completed in Aktau, Pavlodar, and Balkhash, while new terminals have opened in Almaty, Kyzylorda, and Shymkent. New airports are under construction in Kenderli, Zaisan, Katon-Karagai, and Arkalyk. Total investment in infrastructure has exceeded $2.9 billion. According to the Civil Aviation Committee, in 2025, Kazakh airlines transported a record 15 million passengers and 171,000 tons of cargo. Transit flights accounted for 414 million aircraft-kilometers. Deputy Chairman Sarsen Zharylgasov has stated that the country now operates 56 domestic routes, up 9% year-on-year, and maintains air links with 30 countries. International Routes and Regional Competition In 2025, 33 new international routes were launched, connecting Kazakhstan to cities including Budapest, Munich, Cairo, Shanghai, Phuket, and Delhi. Currently, 140 international routes operate under the Open Skies policy, which has applied to 15 airports since 2019. Looking ahead to 2026, new routes are planned to major global hubs, such as Singapore, Tokyo, Rome, Vienna, and New York. The long-anticipated direct U.S. flight hinges on a successful completion of the FAA's CAT-1 audit, following Kazakhstan’s passage of the preliminary technical assessment in August 2024. The 2022 air transport agreement between the U.S. and Kazakhstan remains a key step toward this goal. Air Astana plans to operate the route using a Boeing 787 Dreamliner, though delivery has been delayed to Q2 2026 due to production backlogs. Meanwhile, Uzbekistan is ramping up its own ambitions. During President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s 2025 visit to the US, Tashkent signed a deal with Boeing for 22 Dreamliners. Analysts suggest this could intensify regional competition and enhance Uzbekistan’s appeal as a transit hub. Airport Bottlenecks and Tariff Issues Despite progress in large cities, many regional airports remain hampered by chronic underinvestment and outdated tariff policies. According to Zharylgasov, tariffs at several airports have not been updated in over two decades. “We are working to completely deregulate tariffs, but the Agency for the Protection and Development of Competition does not yet support us,” he noted. Eliminating state control over airport tariffs could introduce market-based pricing, attract investors, and improve profitability, particularly for regional hubs. Digitalization Drives Efficiency Digital transformation is another key priority. Kazakhstan...

Nuclear power

Kazakhstan Details Use of Russian Loan for First Nuclear Power Plant

Kazakhstan’s Atomic Energy Agency (AEA) has confirmed that Russian preferential export financing for the country’s first nuclear power plant will be directed toward the purchase of long-cycle equipment and major construction works. Key components to be covered include the reactor, steam generators, and main circulation pumps. The 2.4 GW twin-unit plant will be built near the village of Ulken on the shores of Lake Balkhash in the Almaty region. The loan’s terms and parameters will be set during the drafting of an intergovernmental agreement. Construction Management The project has been entrusted to Kazakhstan Atomic Power Plants LLP (KAP), a subsidiary of Samruk-Kazyna. In July, KAP was placed under the trust management of the AEA and will later become state property. The agency is also studying potential sites for the second and third nuclear power plants, taking into account geological, seismic, infrastructural, and environmental factors, along with electricity demand and public opinion. All studies are being conducted in line with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) standards. Fuel Production in Kazakhstan The AEA also highlighted plans to produce nuclear fuel domestically. The Ulba-TVS plant has reached its design capacity of 200 tons of finished fuel in low-enriched uranium terms, equivalent to about 1,600 tons of natural uranium annually, enough to reload six reactors. A joint venture with China’s CGNPC, the plant currently manufactures 440 fuel assemblies per year for Chinese nuclear power stations, each weighing about half a ton and produced to a French Framatome design. Moving to two-shift production could double output. While Kazakhstan lacks uranium conversion and enrichment facilities, authorities plan to develop this segment to establish a full nuclear fuel cycle. The AEA and Kazatomprom aim to ensure a steady fuel supply for the plant’s entire operational life. Project Costs and Local Involvement Russia’s financing will primarily fund equipment with long manufacturing lead times. The total cost of construction will be set after design completion and expert review. The AEA noted that costs will depend on site-specific engineering and survey results, local seismic and meteorological conditions, use of international equipment, the degree of domestic production of materials, and the involvement of local contractors and specialists. Kazakh suppliers will have priority in providing materials and labor, provided they meet certification standards. “It is economically unfeasible to import construction materials and workers from Russia if the necessary resources and specialists are available in Kazakhstan at more competitive prices,” the agency stated.

Coal

Kazakhstan’s Vast Coal Reserves Could Fuel Energy Needs for Centuries

Kazakhstan’s coal reserves are expected to last between 200 and 300 years, depending on the rate of extraction, according to an analytical study by the Caspian Commodity Exchange. The study notes that Kazakhstan ranks among the world’s top ten countries for proven coal reserves, estimated at 25 to 33 billion tons, and eighth in terms of production. In 2023, the country produced 112.7 million tons of coal, followed by 109.8 million tons in 2024. Exports for those years totaled 31.9 million tons and 29.5 million tons, respectively. At current production rates, reserves could last for 300 years; if output increases, they would last at least 200 years. About 25 companies operate in Kazakhstan’s coal sector, with 75% of production concentrated among four major players: Bogatyr Komir LLP (about 40% of the market), Euro-Asian Energy Corporation (EEC), Shubarkol Komir JSC, and Qarmet (formerly ArcelorMittal Temirtau JSC). Domestic consumption accounts for 72% of coal use, with the remainder exported, mainly to Russia, which takes about two-thirds of supplies. In 2023, Kazakhstan ranked among the top five coal suppliers to the EU, holding an 8.7% market share, according to the European Commission. The power sector is the largest domestic consumer, using 59% of coal, followed by households (8%) and industry (5%). Coal makes up roughly 50% of the country’s primary energy consumption. In 2023, thermal power plants generated 77.4% of Kazakhstan’s electricity, with coal-fired plants providing 66% of that output. Coal is also the primary source of heat, covering 80% of demand. In Astana, coal-fired combined heat and power plants (CHPs) account for 97% of heat generation, while in Almaty the figure is 56%. Coal combustion is responsible for about 70% of Kazakhstan’s greenhouse gas emissions, creating a challenge for the government’s target of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. Nonetheless, analysts forecast that coal will remain a key energy source in the medium term, accounting for 46% of the energy balance in 2035, down from 66% in 2023. Coal-based power generation is expected to decline by just 9% over that period. Long-term projections point to a more significant decline in coal’s share, driven by the expansion of renewable energy, which is forecast to account for 24.4% of electricity generation by 2035 and 50% by 2050. Another factor will be the commissioning of Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant, construction of which began last week, which will partially replace coal generation in the domestic market.