Growth Forecasts - The Times Of Central Asia

Viewing results 1 - 6 of 5

EDB Forecasts 8.4% GDP Growth for Tajikistan in 2025

Tajikistan’s real GDP is projected to grow by 8.4% in 2025, driven by favorable trade and investment dynamics, rising gold export prices, and decreasing energy import costs, according to the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB). This optimistic forecast surpasses the Tajik government’s minimum expectation of 8.0% growth. The EDB predicts that inflation will rise to 5.9% in 2025, returning to the National Bank of Tajikistan’s (NBT) target range of 6.0% (+/- 2 percentage points) by the end of the year. Analysts attribute this inflationary uptick to strong domestic demand. In 2024, Tajikistan recorded a historic low inflation rate of 3.6% - the lowest since the country’s independence. However, a slight increase in the refinancing rate, by 1 percentage point, is expected as inflation adjusts back to the target range. The refinancing rate has remained at 9.0% since August 5, 2024. The EDB also forecasts a slight devaluation of the somoni, Tajikistan’s national currency, with the exchange rate expected to reach 11 somoni per US dollar by the end of 2025. This adjustment is attributed to higher imports and a decline in remittance volumes. Currently, the somoni trades at 10.9450 per dollar, reflecting a 0.2% appreciation against the dollar in 2024, according to data from the National Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The Times of Central Asia previously highlighted the main short-term risks for Tajikistan’s economy from 2024 to 2026, but the EDB’s projections signal a positive outlook for 2025. Key growth drivers, such as trade, investment, and favorable market conditions, are expected to bolster economic performance despite currency pressures. Despite the fact that the Government of Tajikistan claims the poverty level in the country has decreased (the poverty threshold is not specified), in reality a huge swathe of the male population is working abroad in an attempt to feed their families. Up to 40% of households in Tajikistan have at least one member working abroad. According to the World Bank-KNOMAD, migrants’ remittances to Tajikistan in 2022 amounted to 5.346 billion dollars (39.6% of the country’s GDP). This makes Tajikistan one of the most remittance-based economies in the world. This story was last updated on 10 January 2025 at 10:23GMT

Economy Economic Growth GDP Growth Forecasts IMF

Central Asia Poised to Outpace Global Growth in 2025, IMF Projects (With One Exception)

The year 2025 is anticipated to bring moderate growth for the global economy, according to forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Global GDP is projected to grow by 3.2%, reaching $115.3 trillion at current prices. While global growth is expected to remain stable, it is weaker than initially forecast. The IMF notes that the economic outlook for the United States has improved, but growth expectations for other advanced economies, particularly in Europe, have been downgraded. Emerging markets and developing economies continue to grapple with a range of challenges, including production disruptions, shipping delays, geopolitical conflicts, civil unrest, and extreme weather events. These factors have tempered growth prospects in regions such as the Middle East, Central Asia, and sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast, emerging Asia is experiencing robust growth, fueled by strong demand for semiconductors and electronics, underpinned by substantial investments in artificial intelligence. Additionally, public investment in China and India is driving regional economic expansion. However, the IMF forecasts that global growth will average 3.1% annually over the next five years, a pace slower than pre-pandemic levels. Global Economic Highlights In 2025, the United States is expected to retain its position as the world’s largest economy, with a GDP of $30.3 trillion at current prices. China will follow with $19.5 trillion, while Germany is projected to rank third at $4.9 trillion. Japan and India will occupy fourth and fifth places, with GDPs of $4.4 trillion and $4.3 trillion, respectively. Central Asia Outlook In Central Asia, Uzbekistan’s economy is forecast to expand by 5.7%, reaching $127.4 billion at current prices, according to the IMF. This growth rate positions Uzbekistan as one of the region’s fastest-growing economies. Kazakhstan, the largest economy in Central Asia, is expected to achieve 4.6% growth, with GDP reaching $306.6 billion. Kyrgyzstan’s GDP is forecast to grow by 5%, reaching $17.3 billion at current prices. Tajikistan’s economy is expected to grow by 4.5%, with GDP projected at $14.1 billion. Turkmenistan is forecast to experience slower growth, with its GDP increasing by 2.3% to reach $91.1 billion.

EDB Social protection Population Labour market Growth Forecasts Healthcare

Central Asia’s Population Surpasses 80 Million, With Rapid Growth Expected to Continue

The population of Central Asia has reached a historic milestone, exceeding 80 million people as of December 2024. Projections indicate this figure could surpass 100 million by 2050, highlighting the region’s rapid demographic growth and the challenges it brings for sustainable development. Rapid Population Growth According to the Eurasian Development Bank’s (EDB) macroeconomic forecast, Central Asia’s population has grown by nearly one and a half times over the past 24 years, increasing by approximately one million people annually. Tajikistan and Uzbekistan lead the region in demographic growth. Tajikistan’s population reached 10 million at the beginning of 2024, marking an 80% increase since 1991. Uzbekistan, the region’s most populous country, has maintained an annual growth rate of 1.1–1.2%, with its population now exceeding 36.7 million. The region as a whole has a youthful demographic profile, with an average age of 26.2 years. Diverging Population Estimates PopulationPyramid.net estimates Central Asia’s 2024 population at over 82 million. The discrepancy with other sources likely arises from differing methodologies and data collection techniques. Despite this, all sources agree that the population has surpassed the 80 million mark. Future Projections and Challenges Central Asia’s population is expected to exceed 100 million by 2050. However, rapid demographic growth presents serious challenges for the region. Key concerns include: • Sustainable Economic Development: Ensuring that economic growth keeps pace with population increases. • Job Creation: Addressing the needs of a growing labor force. • Quality of Life: Improving access to education, healthcare, and essential services. Managing these issues will be a top priority for state policies in the coming decades, as governments seek to balance population growth with sustainable development.

Economy IMF Growth Forecasts Export/Import Investments

IMF Positive on Uzbekistan’s Progress

The International Monetary Fund held consultations with the authorities of Uzbekistan in Tashkent from April 23 to May 7, 2024. According to the results of the discussions, the organization delivered their official statement regarding the mission on May 14. According to the statement, the rate of growth of Uzbekistan’s economy remains high. Although the volume of remittances has returned to the trend of the period until 2022, the implementation of stimulative fiscal policies, a sharp increase in fixed capital investment and private consumption served to increase GDP in real terms by 6% in 2023. In the first quarter of 2024, the growth rate remained high. Steady growth in real incomes and measures to expand the scope of the social protection system since 2020 helped reduce the poverty rate from 17% in 2021 to 11% in 2023. Headline inflation fell from 12.3% at the end of 2022 to 8% in March 2024 due to a relatively high real base rate and lower global food and energy prices. In 2023, the external current account deficit expanded to 8.6% of GDP from 3.5% in 2022. This increase was driven by a surge in imports of machinery and equipment (some of which is temporary), lower remittances compared to 2022, higher net interest payments on foreign debt, and repatriation of earnings by foreign-owned businesses. Despite buoyant gold exports, international reserves decreased by $1.2 billion in 2023, although they remain substantial, equivalent to about nine months of imports as of March 2024. The authorities’ strong reform efforts in energy, privatization, and state-owned enterprises (SOEs) continue to bolster economic prospects. Real GDP growth is expected to be robust at 5.4% in 2024, supported by strong domestic demand, and is projected to edge up to 5.5% in 2025. Ongoing fiscal adjustments, moderate bank lending growth, and the reversal of temporary import increases in 2023 are set to curb import growth and reduce the current account deficit this year and next. Inflation is expected to temporarily rise by the end of 2024 due to higher administered energy prices, but sustained tight macroeconomic and macro-prudential policies, alongside structural reforms, aim to lower it toward the Central Bank of Uzbekistan’s target. However, risks remain elevated given the highly uncertain external environment. External risks include spillovers from an escalation of Russia’s conflict in Ukraine, commodity price volatility, and a sudden global economic downturn. Domestically, risks involve slower fiscal consolidation, weakened bank balance sheets, and potential liabilities from state banks, SOEs, and public-private partnerships (PPPs). Upside risks include acceleration of structural reforms, continued favorable inflows of income and capital, and higher gold prices. The authorities aim to join the World Trade Organization, which, along with enhanced trade cooperation and improved transport routes, would boost Uzbekistan’s exports. Closing gender gaps in labor force participation would increase inclusion, productivity, and GDP. Climate adaptation policies and incentives for green technology would mitigate vulnerabilities, de-carbonize the economy, and promote green growth. “The government should maintain momentum on anti-corruption efforts, building on sustained and significant improvements in governance...

Growth Forecasts

Kazakhstan’s GDP Poised for a 36.8% Boost by 2028

Kazakhstan, the largest landlocked country in the world, has emerged as a regional economic powerhouse in Central Asia, according to the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) World Economic Outlook. The report anticipates that by 2028, Kazakhstan's GDP will surge to $354.7 billion, marking an impressive growth of 36.8%, or a rise of $95.4 billion, compared to its position in 2023. This projection underscores the resilient performance of Kazakhstan's economy, which has been steadily improving over the years. As of 2023, the country's real GDP growth was reported at an annual rate of 4.6%, with total GDP standing at $259.29 billion. Moreover, despite global economic challenges, Kazakhstan's economy grew by 5.1% in the first half of 2023, bolstered by robust exports and fiscal stimulus. However, the IMF cautions that the economic growth is expected to moderate to 3.1 percent in 2024 due to an uncertain economic environment. Despite this prediction, the resilience showcased by Kazakhstan's economy in the face of global disruptions suggests a strong capacity to navigate through potential economic hurdles. The country's economic success can be attributed to several factors. Primarily, Kazakhstan has effectively utilized its abundant natural resources, including significant oil reserves, to fuel its economic growth. Furthermore, the government's commitment to implementing progressive economic policies and fostering a conducive environment for foreign investment has also significantly contributed to the country's robust GDP growth. On December 4, President Tokayev signed a decree with measures to attract investment into Kazakhstan’s economy and accelerate economic growth. Tokayev’s agenda of creating a “Just and Fair” state has involved tackling corruption and stabilizing the country through sweeping democratic reforms. Looking ahead, the predicted growth of Kazakhstan's GDP to $354.7 billion by 2028 presents an optimistic outlook for the nation and the region. This projection underlines the potential of Kazakhstan's economy and reaffirms its role as a key player in the economic landscape of Central Asia and the Commonwealth of Independent States. While the journey towards this ambitious goal will undoubtedly present challenges, the progress made by Kazakhstan thus far provides a solid foundation for continued economic growth and prosperity.