Export/Import - The Times Of Central Asia

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U.S.-Kazakhstan Relations

Kazakhstan Strengthens Role as U.S. Key Trade Partner in Central Asia

Kazakhstan has emerged as the United States’ primary economic partner in Central Asia, accounting for the vast majority of regional exports to the U.S. and serving as the leading destination for American imports, according to Finprom.kz. While Central Asia’s share of total U.S. trade remains small, Kazakhstan’s role within the region is increasingly dominant. Kazakhstan Accounts for Over 96% of Central Asia’s U.S. Exports In 2024, Kazakhstan was responsible for 96.7% of Central Asia’s exports to the United States, totaling approximately $2.4 billion out of a regional total of $2.5 billion. Uzbekistan, the next largest exporter, contributed just $44.4 million. The trend is similar for U.S. goods entering the region. Kazakhstan imported $1.1 billion worth of U.S. goods in 2024, or 62.3% of all American exports to Central Asia. Uzbekistan followed with $380.8 million, while Turkmenistan and Tajikistan imported $82.2 million and $56.8 million, respectively. Despite this strong bilateral exchange, Central Asia remains a small player in U.S. global trade. In 2024, the U.S. recorded $3.27 trillion in goods imports and $2.06 trillion in exports, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. Even so, U.S.–Kazakhstan trade has grown meaningfully in recent years. Between 2019 and 2024, the U.S. share of Kazakhstan’s total trade rose from 2.3% to around 3%. Bilateral trade peaked in 2024 at $4.2 billion, the highest level in six years, with U.S. exports to Kazakhstan accounting for 53.2% of the total. Trade Growth and 2025 Downturn That growth slowed sharply in 2025. From January to August, total trade between the two countries fell to $2.1 billion, a 25.8% drop compared to the same period in 2024. Kazakhstan’s exports to the U.S. accounted for much of the decline, falling to $749.7 million in the first nine months of the year - about half the level recorded the previous year. Oil and oil products saw the steepest drop, falling 3.5 times to $269.1 million. Exports of uranium, silver, ferroalloys, tantalum, and titanium also declined, though these remain important categories. By contrast, U.S. exports to Kazakhstan remained relatively stable. Goods shipments fell just 4.8% year-on-year, totaling approximately $1.7 billion from January through September. U.S. exports to Kazakhstan continue to consist primarily of high-value manufactured goods, including vehicles, aircraft, agricultural machinery, computers, telecommunications equipment, and medical devices. Pharmaceuticals stood out in 2025, with American shipments of medicines and vaccines more than doubling to $249.3 million in the first nine months of the year. Investment and Business Cooperation Deepen Alongside trade, investment, and business cooperation between the two countries is also deepening. According to the Kazakh Prime Minister’s office, more than 600 companies with U.S. capital were operating in the country as of late 2025 – a large increase over the previous year. The number of Kazakh-American joint ventures rose by 5.6% over the same period. U.S. companies are active in a range of sectors, including IT, manufacturing, education, consulting, and trade. While the United States is not among Kazakhstan’s top trading partners by volume, the relationship is seen as strategically important. Amid...

Agricultural Export

New Kazakh-Chinese Lab to Streamline Agricultural Exports to China

A joint Kazakh-Chinese veterinary laboratory has opened in the East Kazakhstan region, aiming to streamline and accelerate the export of Kazakh agricultural products to China. According to the Ministry of Agriculture of Kazakhstan, the facility was outfitted with modern equipment and furniture provided by the Chinese government. Accredited under Chinese and international ISO 17025 standards, the laboratory is equipped to conduct high-precision veterinary diagnostics, quality control, and food safety testing. Chinese specialists assisted with the installation and provided training for local staff. The facility can perform up to 550,000 tests annually on particularly dangerous infections, along with approximately 4,000 food safety tests. The new laboratory is expected to remove technical trade barriers and boost Kazakhstan’s export potential for agricultural and livestock products to China and other international markets. Speaking at the opening ceremony, Minister of Agriculture Aidarbek Saparov said: “The opening of this laboratory is the result of the strategic partnership between Kazakhstan and China, aimed at advancing science and technology and enhancing the competitiveness of domestic products. I am confident that this new facility will play a key role in ensuring the quality and safety of agricultural goods.” Kazakhstan’s agricultural exports to China have been rising steadily. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, bilateral trade in agricultural products increased by 10.5% in 2024, reaching $1.4 billion. Of that, Kazakh exports accounted for $1.05 billion, primarily consisting of animal feed, grain, oilseeds, and vegetable oil. Kazakhstan has also made progress in ensuring its meat exports meet Chinese quality and safety standards. In May 2025, Minister Saparov and Sun Meijun, head of China’s General Administration of Customs, signed the Protocol on Inspection, Quarantine, and Food Safety Requirements for the Import and Export of Poultry Meat. The agreement opened the Chinese market to Kazakh poultry products. Since 2019, Kazakhstan has aligned its veterinary standards with Chinese requirements, signing 11 bilateral protocols regulating the trade of meat and livestock products. These agreements now cover 29 categories of plant and animal goods approved for export to China. Currently, over 2,400 Kazakh enterprises are registered as exporters to China, supplying products such as safflower meal and cake, peas, lentils, and rapeseed. In 2025, Kazakhstan plans to open the Chinese market to sugar beet cake, and in 2026 to rice, mung beans, cotton, and melons. Additionally, regional restrictions related to foot-and-mouth disease and avian influenza have been lifted, further clearing the path for meat and meat product exports to China.

Business Climate

Kazakhstan Factories Under Strain as Costs Bite, Economy Shows Mixed Signals

Kazakhstan’s manufacturing sector slipped further in August, with the latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) falling to 47.9. That was down from 49.9 in July and 49.7 in June, keeping the index below the neutral 50 mark for a third straight month. It also marked the sharpest deterioration in manufacturing activity since March 2022, according to S&P Global and Freedom Holding Corp. From Highs to Lows The striking downturn comes on the heels of a banner year. In December 2024, the PMI reached a record 53.9, capping 11 straight months of expansion. Buoyed by post-pandemic recovery and government support, manufacturing output grew by 6.8% in 2024, the fastest pace since 2011, helping push GDP growth to 5%. But momentum cooled as 2025 began. The PMI slipped to 51.5 in January, reflecting slower expansion after the year-end surge. By June and July, it hovered just under 50, signaling stagnation. Seasonal shutdowns for repairs in August contributed to weaker output, but analysts say the slide points to deeper structural pressures. [caption id="attachment_36026" align="aligncenter" width="1600"] Kazakhstan’s PMI peaked at 53.9 in December 2024 but slid steadily through 2025, falling into contraction territory below 50 by mid-year and hitting 47.9 in August — the sharpest deterioration since March 2022.[/caption] Orders Dry Up, Costs Rise The August report revealed broad-based weaknesses. New orders fell for the first time in 19 months, ending a growth streak that began in early 2024. The decline reflected lower demand from both domestic and export markets. With fewer orders, factories scaled back staffing and cut input purchases. At the same time, costs surged. A weak tenge and fuel inflation made imports more expensive, while logistics delays lengthened supplier delivery times. These pressures forced firms to raise output prices at a faster pace, risking competitiveness. “August saw another sharp decline in business activity in Kazakhstan’s manufacturing sector,” said Yerlan Abdikarimov of Freedom Finance Global, which partners with S&P on the survey. He cited weak demand, volatile commodity markets, rising costs, and currency and tax pressures. Taxes have indeed become a burden. A new code passed in mid-2025 raised the extraction royalties on metals, hitting downstream metallurgy. Inflation stood at 12.2% in August 2025, with the National Bank keeping its policy rate high at 16.5% in a bid to tame prices. That leaves financing costly for businesses, resulting in squeezed margins and thinning confidence. The August survey showed business confidence at its lowest since 2021. While firms still expect growth over the next year, their optimism is increasingly cautious. Industry Responses and Government Initiatives Some executives see hope in the government’s industrial policy. A $400 million cotton-to-textile cluster is under construction with Chinese partners in Turkestan, aiming to process domestic cotton into textiles at scale. Officials say the project, due to start production by late 2025, will create thousands of jobs and expand exports. Light industries, such as textiles and apparel, posted strong growth in the first half of 2025, with clothing up about 5.6% and textiles 5.7% according to official data. Chemicals...

Electricity

Afghanistan Generates 250 MW of Electricity, Imports 800 MW from Central Asia and Iran

Afghanistan’s state-owned electricity company, Da Afghanistan Breshna Sherkat (DABS), has signed or prepared agreements for domestic power generation projects totaling 1,070 megawatts over the past 11 months, with 70% of the funding coming from foreign investors, TOLOnews reported. Speaking in an interview, DABS chief Abdulbari Omar said the initiative marks a significant step toward energy self-sufficiency after years of underinvestment in the sector. “In the past 11 months, we have invested 69 billion Afghanis ($1.01 billion), 70% of which came from abroad. This shows we have encouraged foreign investors to enter the Afghan market,” he said. Afghanistan currently produces about 250 MW of electricity domestically and imports around 800 MW from Turkmenistan, Iran, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, at an annual cost of $250-280 million. Omar said the country would need between 6,000 and 7,000 MW to meet domestic demand, rising to 10,000 MW if industrial activity expands. He acknowledged the challenges of developing power from wind, water, gas, coal, and waste, but stressed that projects are moving forward with domestic funds and private investment, without relying on the World Bank or other international organizations. Omar also highlighted the problem of unpaid bills, citing 450 million Afghanis ($6.48 million) owed by former political leaders and warlords. “All individuals, from ministers to ordinary citizens, are treated equally under the law,” he said, noting that power has been cut to ministers who failed to pay. Last year, The Times of Central Asia reported that DABS extended its electricity import agreement with Uzbekistan until the end of 2025. The deal, signed in Uzbekistan by Omar and the National Electricity Company of Uzbekistan, remains vital for meeting Afghanistan’s needs. According to the Taliban-controlled Ministry of Energy and Water, Afghanistan requires around 1,500 MW of electricity, with roughly 720 MW imported and the rest generated domestically.

Bilateral Trade

China-Central Asia Trade Nearly Triples Since 2020

Trade between China and the countries of Central Asia reached $66.2 billion in 2024, nearly triple the 2020 level, according to the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB). Imports from China accounted for about 60% of total trade turnover. China’s largest trading partner in the region is Kazakhstan, with bilateral trade valued at $30.1 billion (46% of total China-Central Asia trade), followed by Uzbekistan at $18 billion (27%) and Turkmenistan at $10.6 billion (16%). China’s share in Central Asia’s overall trade turnover has risen sharply, from 17.7% in 2020 to 24.1% in 2024. However, the level of dependence on Chinese trade varies by country: Turkmenistan - 55% of its total trade is with China. Kyrgyzstan - around 35%. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan - between 20-22%. The EDB estimates significant untapped trade potential of $39.3 billion, about 60% of the current turnover. This includes $32 billion in potential Chinese exports to Central Asia (such as automobiles, electronics, and consumer goods) and $7.3 billion in potential Central Asian exports to China (including copper products, gold, and uranium). With deepening economic ties and major infrastructure links through the Belt and Road Initiative, analysts expect China-Central Asia trade to continue expanding in the coming years.

economic slowdown

Kazakhstan Faces Turbulence as External Pressures Mount

Kazakhstan, Central Asia’s largest economy, is facing a convergence of pressures, from currency depreciation and geopolitical turmoil to volatile oil markets and contentious fiscal reforms, that are testing its economic resilience. Geopolitical Pressures Escalate By mid-2025, it had become increasingly apparent that Kazakhstan has limited capacity to influence global geopolitical dynamics. Like many “middle powers,” the country must adapt to the actions of larger states, whose unpredictable decisions continue to exert downward pressure on the tenge and fuel inflation. On July 28, U.S. President Donald Trump shortened a previously issued 50-day ultimatum to Russian President Vladimir Putin, giving him just 10-12 days to agree to a peace deal with Ukraine. This development added to the mounting uncertainty already impacting Kazakhstan’s economy. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, analysts warn that Trump’s secondary sanctions, 100% tariffs targeting Russia’s trading partners, could potentially be extended to Kazakhstan and other Central Asian economies. Though Kazakhstan is not among Russia’s largest trading partners, its economic links to Moscow are still substantial. The country relies heavily on imports from Russia, including electricity, gasoline, food, and medicine. Adding to the pressure, on July 7, Trump announced a 25% tariff on Kazakhstani goods, effective August 1, 2025. While $1.8 billion of Kazakhstan’s $2 billion in exports to the U.S. (mostly oil, metals, and rare earth elements) are exempt, the move has nonetheless rattled Kazakhstan’s already fragile industrial sector and spooked investors. Oil price instability, largely driven by Western efforts to curtail Russian exports, also poses a major risk. Oil revenues make up the bulk of Kazakhstan’s export income and are a key source of budget financing. Further complicating matters, new Russian restrictions require foreign tankers to obtain Federal Security Service (FSB) approval before accessing key Black Sea ports. This affects the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which handles more than 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports and is partly owned by U.S. firms Chevron and ExxonMobil. Reuters estimates the new rules could disrupt over 2% of global oil supply. Tenge Hits Historic Low As of July 28, the tenge dropped to a record low of 544.87 per U.S. dollar. The depreciation is driving up the cost of imports, an acute problem in an import-dependent economy, pushing more families to spend over half their income on food. Companies with debt obligations in U.S. dollars are also seeing their liabilities grow, worsening the investment climate and prompting firms to scale back on planned expansions. Central Bank Warns Against Intervention National Bank Chairman Timur Suleimenov cautioned against government intervention in currency markets, stating that past administrative controls led to abrupt and damaging devaluations. Suleimenov blamed rising fiscal injections and an 18% increase in money supply for the tenge's vulnerability. He warned that unless GDP and industrial output keep pace with monetary growth, currency pressure will persist. Although Kazakhstan has $52.2 billion in reserves to mitigate speculative shocks, the governor insisted that intervention should be reserved for market distortions, not fundamental shifts. Structural Trade Imbalances Deepen Economist Yernar Serik noted...