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TRIPP

The 43 Kilometers That Could Rewire Eurasia

The Caspian Policy Center’s Trans-Caspian Forum 2026 convened U.S. and regional officials at the National Press Club in Washington on June 10 for a discussion of peace, economic security, and durable partnerships. The forum framed a short Armenia-based link as part of a wider effort to turn the Middle Corridor into a working route for cargo, energy, data, and capital. The strategic dialogue was chaired by Dr. Eric Rudenshiold, CPC research director and senior fellow. Speakers included Aryeh Lightstone, Senior Advisor to the Board of Peace and to Ambassador Steve Witkoff; Hikmet Hajiyev, Assistant to Azerbaijan’s president and foreign-policy department head; Yerzhan Kazykhan, Kazakhstan’s presidential representative for U.S. negotiations; Javlon Vakhabov, deputy adviser to Uzbekistan’s president on foreign policy; and Edil Baisalov, Kyrgyzstan’s ambassador to the United States and presidential special envoy. The meeting came as Washington tries to turn the Armenia-Azerbaijan thaw, the C5+1 critical minerals agenda, and private-sector interest into routes that can move cargo, energy, data, and capital across the Caspian. The discussion cast the Middle Corridor as the main strategic alternative linking Central Asian production to western markets. The Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) refers to a planned 43-kilometer link through southern Armenia’s Syunik province, near Meghri and the Arax River, that would connect Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave. With rail, road, energy, and digital infrastructure, TRIPP is intended to plug into the wider Trans-Caspian route from Central Asia through Azerbaijan and Türkiye to Europe. Aryeh Lightstone opened by placing connectivity inside the Trump administration’s peace and economic-security agenda. His remarks tied Armenia-Azerbaijan diplomacy, the Board of Peace, and the Abraham Accords to the claim that commerce can reinforce peace where standard diplomacy stalled. Lightstone shifted the subject from maps to execution. Customs, regulatory harmonization, digital trade platforms, border procedures, and bankable investment vehicles will decide whether the Middle Corridor becomes a reliable system, he said. His reference to a TRIPP Plus Enterprise Fund pointed to U.S. structures that can move from declarations to projects. Hikmet Hajiyev presented Azerbaijan as the hinge of that system. The Caspian, he argued, does not separate Azerbaijan from Central Asia, but unites them. His line that C5+1 was mathematics while the C6 was chemistry captured Baku’s framing. Azerbaijan is positioning itself as a logistical and strategic extension of Central Asia, connected through Turkic institutions, energy routes, rail, ports, aviation, and digital links. Hajiyev described the Middle Corridor as moving from a supplementary transit route into a strategic geoeconomic system, linking Baku-Tbilisi-Kars rail capacity, Baku port, Nakhchivan, TRIPP, and the planned Trans-Caspian fiber-optic cable with Kazakhstan. Ambassador Kazykhan presented Kazakhstan’s strategic value as something built over time and backed by material capacity, not diplomatic positioning alone. Kazakhstan is by far the region’s largest economy, with the IMF projecting 2026 GDP of about $360 billion. Kazykhan said more than 600 American companies operate in Kazakhstan and cumulative U.S. investment has surpassed $100 billion. Kazakhstan also supplies about 24% of U.S. uranium imports and has reserves or production capacity linked...

Digital Transformation

Interview: Kazakhstan Turns to AI and Digital Platforms to Speed Eurasian Transit

Kazakhstan is moving more of its transit system online as it tries to reduce border delays, track freight earlier, and strengthen its position on routes linking China, Central Asia, the Caspian, and Europe. Officials and industry participants say such tools could shorten processing times and reduce delays across transport corridors. These and other issues were discussed during a thematic session on “Digital Solutions in Transport and Logistics” at the Fifth Eurasian Economic Forum in Astana in late May. Kazakhstan’s practical experience in digitizing transport and logistics was presented by Deputy Minister of Transport Damir Kozhakhmetov, who also spoke with The Times of Central Asia about the country’s key priorities in transforming the sector. Key Areas of Transformation Situated at the crossroads of major international transport corridors, Kazakhstan is prioritizing seamless logistics, electronic document management, and intelligent monitoring systems. According to Kozhakhmetov, the goal is to simplify transit procedures and accelerate cargo processing through the introduction of unified electronic standards and integration with international platforms. “We connect major transit routes and serve as a link providing services along alternative transport corridors,” Kozhakhmetov told The Times of Central Asia. “Our current priority is to ensure that countries across the region continue working together to simplify electronic document exchange and harmonize digital procedures.” Practical Cases and Measurable Results One of Kazakhstan’s most successful initiatives has been the integration of its railway freight systems with major Chinese logistics platforms serving the Middle Corridor. “This allows us to see the composition of cargo shipments three to five days before they arrive at the border and complete transit declarations in advance,” Kozhakhmetov said. “As a result, processing times at key railway stations have been reduced to as little as 30 minutes. Similar integration has already been implemented with the electronic railway platforms of Azerbaijan and Georgia.” He noted that similar projects are being introduced across other transport sectors, including the electronic exchanges of international transport permits, paperless processing of cargo documentation, and the implementation of e-Freight systems for air cargo operations. Kazakhstan is also participating in the development of the Digital Trade Corridor, a global multimodal platform designed to simplify, automate, and accelerate transit and logistics operations. Other initiatives include the introduction of the electronic international consignment note, e-CMR, and the Smart Cargo single-window logistics platform, which integrates customs and logistics services. “We pay close attention to the development of digital infrastructure in every mode of transport,” Kozhakhmetov said. “These efforts cover four main areas: roads, road transport, aviation, and railways.” Digital Roads and AI Monitoring In the road sector, Kazakhstan is developing the e-Joldar system, a unified platform designed to monitor the lifecycle of the country’s road network. The system combines road inventories, technical assessments, laboratory testing, and lifecycle management tools, enabling more effective allocation of infrastructure funding. “We can now see when a road was repaired, when the next maintenance cycle is scheduled, and when future rehabilitation work should be carried out,” Kozhakhmetov explained. According to the Ministry of Transport, Kazakhstan’s public road network...

Investment Projects

Tashkent Signs $3.5 Billion in China Deals for Infrastructure and Exports

The third Uzbekistan-China Interregional Forum, held in the Chinese city of Xi’an, concluded with Tashkent signing more than $3.5 billion in investment and export agreements with Chinese partners, according to the Tashkent city administration. The agreements include $3.35 billion in investment projects and $156 million in export contracts spanning infrastructure, transport, construction, environmental technology, and industrial production. Officials said the deals are aimed at modernizing the Uzbek capital’s urban infrastructure and improving transport systems, public spaces, environmental services, and industrial capacity. The forum comes as China’s economic role in Uzbekistan continues to expand. According to Uzbekistan’s Dunyo news agency, speakers at the Xi’an forum said bilateral trade reached $18 billion last year, while Chinese investment in Uzbekistan totaled $17 billion. China has become one of Uzbekistan’s most important economic partners, with cooperation expanding from trade and construction into transport, energy, industry, and urban development. Dunyo’s report on the forum also presented the Xi’an meeting as part of a broader push to build direct ties between Uzbek regions and Chinese provinces, rather than limiting cooperation to central government agreements. Among the largest planned projects are a $1 billion initiative to develop Bus Rapid Transit, known as BRT, overpasses, and road infrastructure under the EPC+F financing model, and another $1 billion package focused on transport and social infrastructure projects. Additional agreements include $500 million for modern residential complexes in renovation zones and $400 million for drainage, irrigation, and stormwater systems. The city administration said financing is expected to come from Chinese partners without the direct use of Uzbekistan’s state budget or sovereign guarantees, although repayment would still depend on future municipal revenue streams. The projects are planned under the Engineering, Procurement, Construction, and Financing model, known as EPC+F. The financing structure is significant as many of the largest projects are municipal rather than national in scope. It allows Tashkent to pursue major road, drainage, and transport upgrades while presenting the deals as externally financed. Nevertheless, projects of this type can still create long-term obligations if future city revenues are used to cover repayments. The forum also focused on the development of Tashkent’s Yangi Avlod special industrial zone. Agreements worth $130 million were signed with Chinese companies, including Jwise, Zhongke Honghu, CAS Cloud, and UMGG. The projects are expected to support manufacturing infrastructure, digital management systems, and high-tech industrial production in the capital. Yangi Avlod has been promoted as one of Tashkent’s main industrial expansion sites. According to the zone’s official website, it is located in the Yangihayot district and is planned as a 764.5-hectare industrial area with logistics, warehouse, administrative, and commercial infrastructure. Other agreements include investments in decorative stone manufacturing, ceramic production, and smart waste-sorting equipment. Export contracts signed during the forum included three agreements worth a combined $150 million for jewelry exports, as well as deals covering cotton yarn and silver concentrate supplies. Separately, during the official visit to China, Tashkent Mayor Shavkat Umurzakov met with executives from China Railway Construction Corporation to discuss urban renovation projects, transport infrastructure, and...

Alatau City

Kazakhstan Plans to Power New Alatau City With Gas and Renewable Energy

Kazakhstan plans to power the future megacity of Alatau City near Almaty through a combination of gas-fired generation and renewable sources, as authorities seek to address chronic electricity shortages in the country’s south while creating a low-carbon “smart city” model. Deputy Prime Minister Kanat Bozumbayev outlined the government’s energy strategy for the project during a briefing in Astana. According to him, Alatau City’s population could reach between 2.8 million and 3 million people by 2050, roughly equivalent to the current population of Almaty. “We expect that Alatau City will rely primarily on gas generation, given the area’s relatively low population density, along with renewable energy facilities,” Bozumbayev said. The new city is being developed on the site of the village of Zhetygen, approximately 50 kilometers from Almaty. The project will also encompass the settlements of Enbek, Zhanaarna and Kuigan, as well as parts of Konaev and the Talgar district in the Almaty Region. Authorities envision Alatau City as a future hub for technology companies, logistics and export-oriented industry. Under the current concept, the city will be divided into four functional districts: the financial and business-oriented Gate District, the educational and medical Golden District, the industrial Growing District, and the entertainment-focused Green District. The government expects rapid growth in both population and industrial activity to drive a sharp increase in electricity consumption. According to official estimates, electricity demand in Alatau City could reach 1.45 gigawatts by 2030 and rise further to 1.7 gigawatts by 2040. For comparison, Almaty’s electricity consumption in 2024 stood at approximately 982 megawatts. During the initial phase over the next three years, the city is expected to require around 50-100 megawatts of electricity. However, once industrial facilities become operational, demand could rise to between 500 and 1,000 megawatts, Bozumbayev said. Authorities have already prepared an infrastructure plan that includes the construction of transmission lines, substations, and new generating facilities. The government’s emphasis on gas-fired power generation is aimed at reducing southern Kazakhstan’s dependence on electricity transfers from northern Kazakhstan and neighboring countries. According to Bozumbayev, the launch of new power plants in Kyzylorda, Turkestan, and other southern regions should eventually create an electricity surplus in southern Kazakhstan, which currently remains energy deficient. The development of Alatau City is also part of Kazakhstan’s effort to modernize its power system and gradually increase the share of renewable energy in the national mix. In recent years, the country has expanded solar and wind power projects while remaining heavily dependent on coal-fired generation. Alongside energy infrastructure, authorities are promoting Alatau City as a testing ground for advanced transportation technologies. Bozumbayev said preliminary estimates suggest that air taxi rides in the city could cost around $1 per kilometer. “As competition develops in the market, prices could decrease,” the deputy prime minister said. He added that the testing of the air taxi system is expected to be completed by 2026, with commercial services potentially launching in 2027. However, Almaty Region Governor Marat Sultangaziev previously stated that full commercial operation of air taxi services...

Energy Security

Uzbekistan’s Gas Output Falls by 15% as Imports Rise

Uzbekistan’s natural gas production fell by 15% in the first quarter of 2026, adding pressure to an energy system already strained by rising demand, aging infrastructure, and lower hydrocarbon output. The country produced 9.6 billion cubic meters of natural gas in January-March, down from 11.3 billion in the same period last year. The figures are based on data from Uzbekistan’s National Statistics Committee, which also listed declines in oil, coal, and gas condensate production. Oil output fell to 157,300 tons in the first quarter, compared with 160,800 tons in the same period last year. Coal production declined from 1.2 million tons to 1.1 million tons, while gas condensate output fell even more sharply, dropping from 296,600 tons to 242,300 tons. Motor gasoline production rose to 313,200 tons, while diesel output increased to 280,900 tons. The latest data reflect a longer shift in Uzbekistan’s energy balance. Uzbekistan was long a net gas exporter, supported by large Soviet-era fields, a broad domestic gas network, and access to the Central Asia-China pipeline system. That position has weakened as older fields have declined and domestic use has grown. Uzbekistan now has to cover demand from households, power plants, industry, and transport while trying to modernize the sector. That task is getting harder. The country’s permanent population reached 38.2 million people as of January 1, 2026, according to official statistics, leading to more strain on the grid. Imports have risen sharply to meet these needs. Uzbekistan spent $360.5 million on natural gas imports in the first quarter of 2026, a 2.2-fold increase from the same period last year. Meanwhile, gas export revenues fell to $36.7 million, down from $94.3 million a year earlier. That shift has regional weight. Uzbekistan imports gas from Russia and Turkmenistan. Russian gas reaches Uzbekistan through Kazakhstan, using a Soviet-era pipeline route that once moved gas in the opposite direction. Uzbekistan began receiving Russian gas in 2023, as Moscow sought new markets after losing much of its European gas business. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that Russian gas exports to Uzbekistan rose by about 30% in 2025, reaching more than 7 billion cubic meters through the Central Asia-Center pipeline system. Tashkent and Moscow have since discussed larger energy supplies. In April, Uzbek Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov and Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin agreed to increase deliveries of Russian oil and gas to Uzbekistan. The talks also covered wider cooperation in energy, industry, transport, and agriculture. More imports can help Uzbekistan avoid shortages, especially in winter, while supporting power generation and reducing pressure on households. But they also bring new costs, with higher imports weighing on the trade balance and increasing reliance on outside suppliers. That is a sensitive issue for a country trying to expand its domestic industry and keep energy prices stable. The government is trying to slow the production decline. Uzbekneftegaz has said that exploration work added 2 billion cubic meters of gas reserves and 40,000 tons of liquid hydrocarbon reserves in the first quarter. The company...

China

Beyond the Belt and Road: China’s New Playbook in Central Asia

In the Kyzylorda Region, near the town of Shieli, the silos and conveyor belts of a Chinese-backed plant rise out of the fine brown dust that dominates the landscape. It is the kind of project the Belt and Road was supposed to deliver in Central Asia: heavy industry, fixed capital, and a visible mark on the landscape. But it is also a reminder that China’s role in the region has become narrower, more contested, and less sweeping than the old rhetoric suggested. In photographs, the Gezhouba Cement Plant looks like a self-contained industrial island on the steppe. For nearby villagers, it became something else: a source of jobs and local prestige for some, but also of years of complaints about dust clouds and whether the state was quicker to defend a flagship Chinese-backed project than the people living beside it. Projects like the plant in Shieli also help explain why views of China across Central Asia remain mixed. Beijing is seen as a source of trade, investment, and technology, but that promise is tempered in some places by concerns over transparency, environmental costs, and who really benefits when a project arrives. China has become Central Asia’s dominant trading partner, but investment has not kept pace with the surge in commerce. The gap says a lot about how Beijing now works in the region: with a sharper focus on sectors that matter to its long-term influence. In 2025, trade in goods between China and the five Central Asian states reached $106.3 billion, up 12% year on year. Chinese exports to the region totaled $71.2 billion, while imports from Central Asia reached $35.1 billion. Trade has grown fast enough to reshape the region’s external balance, but long-term investment has been far more selective. Over 2005–2025, the five Central Asian states accounted for about 3% of China’s global overseas investment and construction total. The picture changes once direct investment is separated from trade and construction contracts. China’s FDI stock in the five Central Asian states stood at about $36 billion by mid-2025. Roughly 90% was concentrated in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. The structure of that capital has also changed. Extractive industries still accounted for 46% of the portfolio, but manufacturing and energy together made up more than one third, and greenfield projects rose from 43% to 60%. China has not poured money into Central Asia on the scale once implied by early Belt and Road rhetoric. Instead, it has invested in sectors that strengthen its industrial position. Kazakhstan remains at the center of this relationship. It is China’s biggest commercial partner in Central Asia, and the main destination for Chinese capital in the region. Kazakhstan-China trade reached $43.8 billion in 2024. The country’s portfolio of projects with Chinese participation includes 224 ventures worth about $66.4 billion. Some are still at the planning stage, but the range of projects is telling. Recent developments have included a hydrogen energy technology innovation center in Almaty and a large wind farm with electricity storage. Kazakhstan still sells...