Labor Market - The Times Of Central Asia

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Employment

Kazakhstan Authorities Acknowledge Gap Between Real Scale of Shadow Employment and Official Data

Kazakhstan’s authorities have acknowledged a significant discrepancy between official estimates of informal employment and administrative data, highlighting the scale of the country’s shadow labor market. Minister of Labor and Social Protection Askarbek Yertaev said the actual number of people working outside the formal economy could be almost three times higher than indicated by official statistics. He made the statement during a Senate meeting devoted to regional development issues. Presenting the ministry’s assessment of informal employment, Yertaev noted that out of a workforce of 9.7 million people, only 6.7 million made mandatory pension contributions at least once in 2025. Of these, 5.3 million were employees and 1.4 million were self-employed. This leaves around 3 million people without recorded pension contributions. According to the minister, the figure significantly exceeds official estimates. Data from the National Statistics Bureau indicated that at the beginning of 2025, informal employment accounted for about 12% of the employed population, or just over 1.1 million people. Yertaev said the discrepancy suggests that a substantial number of citizens either work informally or underreport their income. Additional evidence of the scale of shadow employment comes from differences between statistical data and digital administrative records. While official statistics show 7.1 million registered employees, the Unified System for Accounting for Employment Contracts records contracts for only 4.1 million people. Among the factors driving workers into informal employment, Yertaev cited overdue debts and the freezing of bank accounts, which he said may encourage individuals to conceal income and avoid formal labour arrangements. To address the issue, the Ministry of Labor plans to expand the use of digital tools aimed at facilitating formal employment. This includes the introduction of AI solutions on the Electronic Labor Exchange portal. According to the ministry, an AI-based system will automatically match job seekers with vacancies based on their education and professional background, while also supporting users throughout the job search process. Deputy Chairman of the State Revenue Committee of the Ministry of Finance Zhanibek Nurzhanov also presented the results of a pilot project on platform employment. Implemented jointly with the Ministry of Labor, the initiative led to the registration of more than 43,000 taxi drivers as individual entrepreneurs under a special tax regime. The State Revenue Committee’s information systems are now integrated with 31 online platforms, a step authorities say should help bring more workers into the formal economy. Participants in the Senate discussion stressed that efforts to reduce shadow employment should combine enforcement measures with policies that encourage voluntary legalization of labor relations. As The Times of Central Asia previously reported, proposals to combat the payment of undeclared wages included sectoral agreements on salary levels and requirements for companies to disclose employment structures.

Migration Policy

Kazakhstan to Focus on Skilled Migrants in New Migration Policy

Kazakhstan is shifting toward a more pragmatic migration policy aligned with the needs of the national economy. The government’s newly approved Migration Policy Concept through 2030 prioritizes attracting in-demand highly skilled professionals and encouraging internal migration to regions experiencing labor shortages. According to the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection, the number of foreign labor migrants in Kazakhstan reached 16,100 in 2025. Minister of Labor Askarbek Yertayev said that greater emphasis will be placed on assessing the professional qualifications of foreign workers. Priority will be given to specialists with relevant education, work experience, and competencies sought in the domestic labor market. By 2030, the share of skilled workers among labor migrants is expected to increase to 95%. To support these objectives, the ministry has launched a pilot project on the digital platform migration Enbek.kz. The initiative introduces a comprehensive scoring system to evaluate applicants when issuing permanent residence permits and granting kandas status, a designation for ethnic Kazakhs returning to their historical homeland. A draft law has also been prepared that includes revising fees for hiring foreign labor, tightening regulation of private employment agencies, and formally integrating the digital scoring mechanism into migration decision-making processes. The quota for attracting foreign workers in 2026 has been set at 0.25% of the total national workforce, according to official data. The main countries of origin for officially employed foreign nationals remain China, Uzbekistan, Turkey, and India. At the same time, the government is strengthening measures to manage internal migration. In 2025, 14.7% of participants in state-supported interregional resettlement programs relocated to northern regions of the country. Major cities such as Almaty and Astana continue to attract young people from less economically developed regions, exacerbating territorial imbalances.

Labor Market

Kazakhstan Sets 2026 Quota for Foreign Workers

Kazakhstan has set its 2026 quota for the employment of foreign workers at 0.25% of the country’s total labor force, according to the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection. The annual quota is part of the government’s policy to regulate labor migration and safeguard the domestic job market. The 2026 quota includes specific allocations across several categories of foreign workers: 726 permits for senior managers and their deputies (first category), 3,402 for heads of structural divisions (second category), 5,893 for specialists (third category), and 3,131 for skilled workers (fourth category). An additional 4,994 permits have been allocated for seasonal labor. Separately, the quota for foreign labor employed in private households has been set at 2.9% of Kazakhstan’s total labor force for the year. The new quotas mark an increase from 2025, when the initial foreign labor cap was 0.2%, equivalent to 14,800 permits. In March 2025, that figure was raised to 16,500 following requests from regional authorities grappling with labor shortages. As of December 1, 2025, 14,103 foreign nationals were officially employed in Kazakhstan. The largest contingents came from China, Uzbekistan, Turkey, and India, underscoring the country’s continued dependence on migrant labor in construction, industry, and other specialized sectors. The quota-based system reflects Kazakhstan’s broader strategy to meet economic labor demands while prioritizing employment for domestic workers, particularly amid ongoing infrastructure expansion and industrial development.

Migrant Workers

More Than a Third of Migrant Workers in Kazakhstan Are Chinese Citizens

More than 35% of all foreign nationals officially working in Kazakhstan are Chinese citizens, according to data published by the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Republic of Kazakhstan. As of December 1, 2025, a total of 14,103 foreign citizens were employed in Kazakhstan under permits issued by local executive authorities. The largest group of labor migrants comprises Chinese nationals, 5,604 individuals, representing over 35% of the total. They are followed by citizens of Uzbekistan (2,110 people, about 15%), Turkey (1,036 people, over 7%), and India (943 people, more than 6%). Migrants from other countries make up roughly 35% of the foreign labor force, a proportion nearly equal to that of China. In 2025, the structure of permits for foreign labor included 537 issued to managers and their deputies (first category), and 2,244 to heads of structural divisions (second category). Most foreign workers fell into the third and fourth categories, specialists (3,784 people) and skilled workers (1,271 people). Additionally, 2,299 permits were granted for seasonal work, and 3,970 were issued as part of corporate transfers. The ministry reported that 1,817 employers in Kazakhstan currently utilize foreign labor. These companies also employ more than 334,000 Kazakhstani citizens, who make up about 96% of their total workforce. By sector, the highest number of foreign workers are employed in construction, 4,993 people, just over 35%. Other major sectors include agriculture, forestry, and fisheries (2,316 workers, 16.5%), mining and quarrying (1,235 workers, about 9%), and manufacturing (1,155 workers, approximately 8%). To safeguard the domestic labor market, Kazakhstan sets an annual quota for the employment of foreign workers. In 2025, the initial quota was 0.2% of the workforce, or 14,800 permits. This figure was raised to 16,500 in March at the request of regional authorities. In August, the quota was increased further to 0.25% or 19,400 permits, following the expansion of the list of professions eligible for seasonal foreign workers. It was later revised down to 16,700 permits, based on updated regional needs. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, more than 80,000 Russian citizens received residence permits to work in Kazakhstan between January 2023 and September 2024.

Immigration

How the Russian Relocation Wave Reshaped Kazakhstan’s Economy

In September 2022, northern Kazakhstan’s border crossings experienced huge surges as tens of thousands of Russians fled mobilization for the war in Ukraine. In Almaty and Astana, rental prices soared to historic highs, and social infrastructure came under intense pressure. At the time, the influx seemed poised to destabilize the country’s established equilibrium. Two years on, the situation has transformed. The initial surge subsided, and spontaneous migration underwent a natural filtering process. Many who saw Kazakhstan as a temporary stop have moved on or returned to Russia. Those who made a conscious decision to stay have legalized their status and integrated into the local economy. Despite initial fears, the mass relocation did not damage Kazakhstan’s economy. On the contrary, the so-called "Russian exodus" accelerated Almaty and Astana’s evolution into cosmopolitan urban centers, while introducing lasting economic shifts. A New Diaspora Understanding the impact of the mass migration requires distinguishing transient travelers from those who settled. During the peak in autumn 2022, more than 400,000 Russian citizens crossed the border, though most quickly departed Kazakhstan. According to Kazakhstan’s Interior Ministry, from January 2023 to September 2024, more than 80,000 Russian citizens received residence permits for work. Including family members and remote workers, the core of the relocated population can be estimated at 100,000–120,000 people. Those who remained form a skilled urban middle class, IT specialists, engineers, doctors, and entrepreneurs, largely aged 25 to 40. When the “visa run” legal loophole allowing stay extensions by briefly exiting the country was abolished in January 2023, many were forced to legalize their presence. The rule change pushed many relocants to formalize their stay through work contracts or business registration, which in turn made their economic activity more visible to the state. By the end of 2023, the number of registered legal entities with Russian participation exceeded 18,000, a 70% increase. In 2024, that number rose to more than 23,000. The “Cappuccino Effect” The arrival of tens of thousands of solvent consumers brought not only capital, but also the consumption habits of Russia’s megacities. International institutions, including the IMF, have acknowledged that Kazakhstan’s 2023 GDP growth was supported in part by robust domestic demand. Spending surged in restaurants, delivery services, taxis, and gyms, especially in Almaty and Astana. This boost helped small and medium-sized businesses recover from the pandemic. Russian entrepreneurs, opening everything from coffee shops to architecture firms, raised service standards and intensified competition. Local businesses responded by improving their quality and digitalizing operations. However, this also pushed up consumer prices, contributing to inflation and affecting local purchasing power. Housing remains the most visible pressure point. While the panic of late 2022 has passed, rents remain well above pre-crisis levels. Analysts estimate that average house prices are still 40% higher than in 2021. This has fueled gentrification, with central Almaty’s “Golden Square” and elite areas of Astana becoming expat enclaves. Students, public sector workers, and young families have increasingly been pushed to the outskirts, increasing commuting times and straining public transport. Many relocants are...

Labor Market

Ashgabat Police Reportedly Crack Down on Non-Resident Workers

In Turkmenistan, police raids targeting non-resident laborers seeking short-term work in the capital are intensifying, according to Turkmen.News, placing additional pressure on citizens from regions that face chronic unemployment at home. Day Laborers Targeted Police in Ashgabat have reportedly been extorting money from non-resident day laborers, threatening them with detention and forced removal from the city. These raids are concentrated near the newly opened transport hub in the Gurtly district, which recently replaced the former central interchange near the Tekin Bazaar, a long-established site for informal employment. For many from Turkmenistan’s regions, Ashgabat offers the only opportunity to earn a daily wage of $2.50 to $3.50. But this marginal lifeline is vanishing as police expel day laborers from Gurtly and threaten to drive non-residents out of the capital entirely. The area has developed its own informal employment system. Several women operate as unofficial coordinators, posing as passengers at the bus stop. They maintain notebooks filled with phone numbers, service prices, and available workers. Locals approach them with tasks, such as moving furniture or doing basic repairs, and are promptly matched with laborers who remain discreetly nearby. Raids and Intimidation Authorities appear intent on dismantling this system. Eyewitnesses say police conduct daily patrols in Gurtly, stopping young men, checking residency documents, and confiscating their earnings. The money is allegedly pocketed by officers, with no official record kept. Victims report being insulted, intimidated, and threatened with deportation to their home provinces before being released following brief “educational conversations.” Such operations are not new. In late October, Ashgabat police issued mass fines to non-resident taxi drivers. During the summer’s UN forum in Avaza, day laborers in Turkmenbashi were reportedly detained en masse, held in temporary facilities, and then forcibly returned to their home region. These actions are part of what appears to be an ongoing, unofficial campaign of pressure against internal migrants. Erasing Poverty from the Capital’s Image Some Ashgabat residents believe the relocation of the main bus hub to the outskirts is part of a broader strategy to conceal poverty behind the capital’s polished facade. “This is an attempt to cleanse the capital of any hints of the real, unsightly side of life,” one resident remarked. Income levels outside the capital remain significantly lower. For many families, irregular work in Ashgabat is their only source of supplemental income. Yet instead of addressing inequality, observers argue that authorities are reinforcing regional discrimination, further marginalizing non-resident workers.