Essential but Unwelcome: Central Asian Migrants in Russia

The Crocus City Hall terrorist attack in Moscow on March 22, 2024 triggered strong anti-migrant sentiment in Russian society. Since then, the nation’s authorities have been imposing stricter migration rules. But how does this impact millions of Central Asian labor migrants and their families living and working in Russia? Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia became a major destination for migrant workers from Central Asia. According to the official Russian statistics, there are currently almost four million citizens of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan living in Russia, along with approximately 670,000 illegal migrants. Rosstat (the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation) reports that 260,400 migrants arrived in Russia from January to July this year, with 60% (about 156,200) coming from Central Asian countries. The majority of them are citizens of Tajikistan. In 2023, over one million Tajiks have moved to Russia in search of work. With a large community of its citizens in Russia, the Tajik government seems to be working to not only improve their legal status in the Russian Federation, but also to coordinate some of their actions, particularly in the field of culture. On April 9, in Dushanbe, a meeting took place between Tajikistan’s Minister of Labor, Migration, and Employment of the Population, Solekhi Kholmakhmadzoda, and leaders and activists of the Tajik diaspora living in Russia. Tajikistan initiated the summit after Russia began testing migrant children on their knowledge of the Russian language before admitting them to school. Starting April 1, a law came into effect that prevents Russian schools from enrolling migrant children who do not speak Russian or are in Russia illegally. This measure is just the tip of the iceberg in the Kremlin’s plans to regulate the migrant issue in the country. Alexey Nechaev, the leader of the New People party – one of the handful of the so-called systemic opposition parties in Russia – said on March 19 that “artificial intelligence should be made a new tool for monitoring migrants… It is unfair that Russian citizens are digitized from head to toe, while migrants continue to live with paper documents without any problems,” Nechaev stressed, pointing out that monitoring migrants’ activities through AI could “help keep a closer eye on what foreigners are doing and make it easier to track illegal money flows.” Last year, the Liberal Democratic Party – another ‘systemic opposition’ group – proposed restricting the rights of migrant workers to bring their families into Russia. This initiative raised concerns in neighboring Kazakhstan. The ambassador of the largest Central Asian nation expressed unease to Moscow about such ambitions, referring to the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), the foundation of which, as he highlighted, is based on ensuring the four freedoms – the movement of goods, services, capital, and labor. Russian reports, however, claim that, as a result of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan’s membership in the EAEU, their citizens living in Russia have a much better status than those from other Central Asian states. Despite that, on...

Tajikistan Predicts Economic Slowdown Amid Declining Remittances

Tajikistan's economic growth is projected to decelerate to 7.5% in 2025, largely due to weakening domestic demand, according to the latest regional economic review by the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development (EFSD). Migrant Remittances: A Key Factor The anticipated slowdown is primarily attributed to a decline in remittances from labor migrants, which have historically formed a substantial share of Tajikistan’s GDP. EFSD analysts forecast that from 2025 to 2027, the volume of transfers will gradually normalize after peaking between 2022 and 2024. Despite this decline, the EFSD maintains that Tajikistan’s balance of payments will remain stable, helped in part by reduced capital outflows, including foreign currency purchases. Previously, the World Bank reported that migrant remittances accounted for 45% of the country’s GDP in 2024, the highest proportion globally. By comparison, remittances made up 24% of GDP in Kyrgyzstan and 14% in Uzbekistan. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) expects this share to fall to 37% in 2025. Inflation Pressures Rise EFSD economists also warn of mounting inflationary pressures. Inflation is projected to approach the upper limit of the National Bank of Tajikistan’s target corridor, 5% with an acceptable deviation of ±2 percentage points. Over the medium term, inflation is expected to stabilize within the target range. Food prices remain the primary risk to price stability, the EFSD cautioned. Exports, External Risks, and Trade Barriers The ADB has also published a forecast supporting a more restrained outlook, highlighting falling global prices for Tajikistan’s key exports, metals and agricultural goods, including aluminum, as an added drag on growth. Additionally, regional trade barriers are posing challenges. Uzbekistan recently raised import duties on Tajik cement, a move seen by analysts as part of a broader trend of protectionist policies in neighboring countries. External conditions are also exerting pressure. Economic slowdowns in Russia and China, Tajikistan’s primary trading partners, could suppress both export revenue and remittances, the majority of which come from migrant workers in Russia. GDP Projections and Sector Breakdown According to the ADB’s baseline scenario, Tajikistan’s GDP growth is expected to slow to 7.4% in 2025 and 6.8% in 2026. In contrast, Tajik authorities aim to maintain growth at no less than 8%. In 2024, the economy grew by 8.4%, a 0.1 percentage point increase over the previous year. GDP totaled 153.4 billion somoni (approximately $14 billion). The sectoral composition of GDP included agriculture (22.8%), industry (16.9%), trade (15.2%), transportation (9.3%), construction (8.1%), taxes (9.4%), and other services (18.3%). Despite the projected slowdown, ADB experts remain cautiously optimistic. They cite sustained investment in energy and industrial sectors, expanded agricultural and service output, and continued, albeit diminished, remittance inflows as key factors that will support Tajikistan’s economic momentum.