BISHKEK (TCA) — Russia has for years been exaggerating the threat coming from Afghanistan to Central Asia in an effort to maintain, and increase, its influence on countries of this region. We are republishing the following article on the issue, written by Paul Goble: Over the last month, Russian officials have suggested that militant groups in Afghanistan so threaten the countries of Central Asia that the latter should cooperate more closely with Russia in order to defend themselves. But in contrast to such campaigns in the past, Moscow is facing difficulties in convincing anyone. Russian commentators are questioning whether Russia’s new military efforts in Central Asia will be worth the cost—be it a new base in Kyrgyzstan, the expansion of Russia’s military presence in Tajikistan, or a new level of cooperation with Turkmenistan. Whereas, officials and experts in the region are openly challenging Moscow’s premise that their countries are so threatened by Afghan militants that they have no choice but to accept an expanded Russian presence. On February 5, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov traveled to Tajikistan, where he offered additional “security assistance” to Dushanbe (TASS, News.tj, February 5). But several days prior to the top Russian diplomat’s visit, his deputy, Igor Zubov, warned, “ISIS [Islamic State—IS] militants [were] massing with helicopters” to advance to the border of Tajikistan, thus threatening that country, Central Asia as a whole and Russia itself (Sputnik News, January 28). Zubov and Lavrov’s apparently coordinated diplomacy was nothing new for Central Asians. Rather, it has been a longstanding element of Russian policy to seek to propagate local regional concerns about the ostensible threats coming out of neighboring Afghanistan (EurasiaNet, February 12). But this time, Central Asian reaction to these attempts was hardly what Moscow expected and wanted. Following Zubov’s remarks, the Border Guards Service of Tajikistan took the unusual step of directly contradicting the Russian official, saying that it did not have any information about the presence on its borders of any IS militants, that the border region remained under control, and that there was no need for any outside assistance (Avesta.tj, January 29). While Tajikistani officials apparently were more polite in their meetings with Lavrov, they too appeared to be less-than-fully persuaded by Russian suggestions that their country faced such a great threat from the south that it had no choice but to expand Moscow’s involvement there. Following the meeting, Komrod Khidoyatzoda, a Tajik who directs the Central Asian Experts Club, told Russia’s Regnum news agency that even in Tajikistan’s Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast, where there have been internal security problems (see EDM, October 18, 2018), it is long past time to blame everything on Afghanistan. “The situation in the oblast, as far as security is concerned, remains stable,” he said, adding “the Tajik-Afghan border remains under the full control of Tajikistan’s border guards” (Regnum, February 12, 2019). Khidoyatzoda then suggested that Dushanbe was receiving all the international cooperation it needed […] from Uzbekistan, with which Tajikistan has conducted, “for the first time in many...