China’s plan for railway to Uzbekistan is transforming Central Asian geopolitics
TASHKENT (TCA) — China is competing with Russia for greater influence on Central Asia countries, using infrastructure and transport investment and projects to achieve that goal. We are republishing the following article on the issue, written by Paul Goble: Chinese plans to construct a railway from Xinjiang through Kyrgyzstan to Uzbekistan and onward to Turkmenistan will, if realized, transform the geopolitical situation in the region. This rail corridor promises to open up new possibilities for regional countries to bypass Russia in pursuit of foreign markets. And if completed, this railway will accelerate China’s gradual displacement of Russia as the dominant power in post-Soviet Central Asia, particularly given that Beijing has already demonstrated its willingness to use its economic might to extract political concessions from governments there. Finally, this railway will reduce Chinese dependence on routes passing through Russia, thus increasing Beijing’s freedom of action. At the same time, however, Beijing’s plans have the potential to promote instability in Kyrgyzstan, where the proposed route will pass through the predominantly ethnic-Uzbek south of the country. Southern Kyrgyzstan still does not have any rail links with the north or the capital, Bishkek. Consequently, some Kyrgyzstanis worry that the planned Chinese project could eventually threaten the territorial integrity of their country. To that end, Bishkek is seeking to invite Russian involvement into the project. But Moscow is reluctant to do so both because of the project’s enormous direct costs and because such a Chinese line would significantly reduce Russian influence in the countries along its route, effectively ending Russia’s ability to dominate the region. At present, most existing transit corridors to and from Central Asia must pass through Russia given that other routes, through unstable Afghanistan or politically isolated Iran, are anything but attractive. Consequently, Moscow is seeking to block or at least slow the Chinese project by playing up the fears in Kyrgyzstan and promoting the development of a north-south route that would keep the Kyrgyz Republic firmly rooted in the Russian camp. Yet, at present, Moscow lacks the funds required to build it—in striking contrast to Beijing, which is reportedly prepared to spend $1 trillion on transport corridors like this new east-west railway, as part of its Belt and Road Initiative (Poistine.org, Accessed: March 20. Ongoing discussions of the possibility that China might build a rail line connecting it with Uzbekistan and the West date back to the 1990s; and in 2006, expert commissions in Beijing and Bishkek even agreed on a specific route. But beyond talk, there has been little movement until now. At the beginning of March, TASS reported that Kyrgyzstan was encouraging Russia to become involved lest the project result in growing Chinese dominance (TASS, March 1). Kyrgyzstani, but not Russian, news outlets have been reporting that Moscow is interested (Ehokg.org, March 1). That Russia has still not officially confirmed its willingness to take part in this effort reflects both the enormous cost of the proposed rail line—now estimated at $7 billion—as well as Russian convictions that the route,...
