Security - The Times Of Central Asia

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High Water in Kyrgyzstan’s Toktogul Reservoir Forecast to Boost Electricity Generation

On August 2, the volume of water in the reservoir of Kyrgyzstan's Toktogul hydroelectric power plant reached 11.922 billion cubic meters, which according to the plant's operator Electric Stations OJSC, is almost one billion cubic meters more than that recorded on August 1, 2023. Located on the Naryn River, which feeds the Syr Darya River that flows to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, Toktogul HPP is the largest power plant in Kyrgyzstan and generates some 40% of the country’s electricity. The Toktogul reservoir currently receives 840 cubic meters of water per second and releases 475 cubic meters per second. The released water is used to generate electricity and then flows to downstream countries where it is used for irrigation. The reservoir has a maximum capacity of 19.5 billion cubic meters, with an average volume is 17.3 billion cubic meters, and the "dead" level at which the power plant would stop operating is 5.5 billion cubic meters. As reported by 24.kg news agency, Electric Stations OJSC expects the volume of water in the Toktogul reservoir to reach 12.5 billion cubic meters at the beginning of the next heating season (October 1, 2024) and at the end of 2024/25 season, fall to around 7.9 billion cubic meters. Toktogul HPP comprises four hydroelectric units with a total generating capacity of 1320 MW and on completion of the modernization of hydroelectric unit #1, later this year, the capacity will increase by 60 MW and reach 1380 MW. In recent years, because Kyrgyzstan has been unable to produce enough electricity to meet the country's growing demand, electricity has been imported from neighbouring states.

Security

Central Asian Countries Increasing Defense Budgets

Voice of America has published an article that states that the countries of Central Asia are increasing their spending on defense and military equipment. Turkey, China, and the United States are now challenging Russia as the main suppliers of this equipment. According to analysis by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, which studies conflicts worldwide, the defense expenses of Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan totaled $1.8 billion last year. The institute did not explain Uzbekistan’s failure to disclose its defense expenditures, and there is no information on Turkmenistan. Last year, Kazakhstan’s military budget was 0.5% of its GDP, equal to $259.7 billion. Kyrgyzstan’s military expenditure was 1.5% of its GDP, $13.9 billion, totaling $208.5 million for defense. For Tajikistan, it was 1% of GDP, $12 billion, and $120 million for the military. The report also noted that Kazakhstan’s defense spending increased by 8.8% compared to last year. Uzbekistan, which does not disclose its military budget, reportedly allocated an additional $260 million to its defense budget last year. Officials in the region cite conflicts in the Eurasia region – the war in Ukraine and the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, plus border disputes in Central Asia, and instability in Afghanistan – as reasons for Central Asian states to beef up their military forces. However, Peter Leonard, a writer specializing in Central Asian affairs, told Voice of America that it was partly a matter of reputation. “Partly, it is a matter of prestige. Authoritarian leaders like to flaunt shiny and expensive weapons. During annual military parades, we see this visually in Turkmenistan, where officials show off their new weapons and vehicles from China, Europe, and elsewhere. We see this trend in all of Central Asia,” he said. "Paradoxically, the intensification of militaries in these countries has not, in fact, exacerbated tensions but has resulted in a different outcome - which is much more cordial and practical dialogue about border demarcation. These countries, which were at a dangerous point, are on the cusp of signing a historic border agreement which will put an end to three decades of conflict."

Border disputes Security Legislation

Demarcation of the Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan Border Nears Completion

As reported by Asia-Plus, on July 26, the governor of the Sughd region in Tajikistan, Rajabboy Ahmadzade, announced that the state border between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, which has been closed for three years, is expected to open soon. The commission for delineating the border between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan has been in progress since 2022 but as stated by Ahmadzade, “To date, 94% of the border line has been fully delineated. We believe that everything will be resolved positively shortly." The minister advised that on July 21-24, representatives of the Ministry of Transport of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan visited the disputed areas and Tajik towns of Chorkukh and Vorukh. He did not disclose the location of the remaining 6% of disputed territories, but added that the commission would meet again from August 11 - 17 in Botken, Kyrgyzstan. The armed border between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan was closed after clashes on 14-17 September 2021. A year later, officials and representatives of both countries' border commission met in Sughd to discuss means of resolving the issue. The conflict was caused by uncertainties regarding the exact demarcation of the border between the two republics which spans some 980 kilometers. With its scant natural resources and dwindling water supplies, the border between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan has been the scene of numerous skirmishes for many years. In 2014, all borders between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan were closed indefinitely to Kyrgyz and Tajik citizens following clashes over a bypass road in disputed territory; mortars were fired and both armies suffered casualties. Trouble spilled over again throughout 2021 and 2022, reportedly starting over a water dispute in the Vorukh enclave, and leaving an unknown number in the hundreds killed, and up to 136,000 people evacuated. In September 2022, another shooting took place on the border between the two countries.

Security Export/Import Economy Inflation ADB

ADB: Central Asia’s Economic Growth and Decreasing Inflation in 2024

The Asian Development Bank has published its latest report, “Asian Development Outlook (ADO) July 2024: Steady Growth, Slowing Inflation,” in which it has increased its forecast for economic growth in Central Asia from 4.3% to 4.5% in 2024. In the first quarter (Q1) of 2024, the Kyrgyz Republic is expected to have grown at a rate of 8.8% thanks to robust service and construction industry output supported by both foreign and domestic investment. Other regional economies have also experienced solid economic activity. As a result of a notable increase in exports, which included gold sales, Tajikistan maintained its robust economic trajectory in Q1 2024, with an 8.2% growth rate. Net gas exports and government investment, meanwhile, are Turkmenistan’s primary sources of growth. The first quarter of 2024 also saw 6.2% growth in Uzbekistan, due to a spike in fixed capital investment. The growth prospects of Kazakhstan, however, the largest economy in the region, remain unchanged. With the main growth drivers being construction, manufacturing, and services, GDP expanded by 3.7% in Q1 2024. This year, manufacturing and construction will continue to be the primary forces behind economic expansion. Strong building growth will be supported by government assistance to victims and restoration of damaged infrastructure following the worst floods in thirty years. Mining is also anticipated to contribute significantly to Kazakhstan’s medium-term growth following the Tengiz oil field expansion project's completion in Q2 2025. The ADB has also lowered inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025. In May 2024, the Kyrgyz Republic experienced a decrease in inflation from 11.3% to 4.6%, primarily due to fluctuations in the prices of essential commodities. Other regional economies are also experiencing a reduction in inflationary pressures. A steady exchange rate and relatively restrictive monetary policy decreased Kazakhstan's inflation rate to 9.0% from 18.5% from 2023 to January–May 2024. Inflation in Tajikistan for the first four months of 2024 was 3.8%. Inflation in Uzbekistan has also dropped from 11.4% in the previous year to 9.2% in the first five months of 2024.

Finance Investments Energy Banking Security Economy ADB

ADB to Advise Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry on Hydropower Development

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has signed a transaction advisory services agreement with the Kazakh government for its Hydropower Development Program, which aims to attract the private sector to design, finance, construct, operate, and maintain the country’s hydropower projects. According to the agreement, ADB will work with Kazakhstan's Energy Ministry to conduct pre-feasibility studies, prepare auction documents and a template power purchasing agreement, and attract competitive offers to crowd investors. ADB will help the ministry prepare and auction hydropower projects with private sector participation in the southeast, with a potential cumulative capacity of around 600 megawatts across the Alakol, Balkhash, and Irtysh/Zaysan basins. The agreement was signed on July 26 in London by Kazakhstan’s minister for energy, Almasadam Satkaliyev, and ADB’s head of public–private partnerships, Cleo Kawawaki. Emphasizing that supporting Kazakhstan in developing renewable energy sources is a priority for ADB, Ms. Kawawaki commented: “ADB’s focus is to assist the country’s efforts to address the impacts of climate change, promote decarbonization, and facilitate sustainable economic growth. This will help Kazakhstan achieve its goal of increasing its renewable energy capacity, reduce carbon emissions, and enhance the country’s energy security.” Satkaliyev also proposed collaborating with ADB to attract technological support, investments, and grants to reduce methane emissions in all sectors of Kazakhstan’s economy, including the oil and gas industry.

Artificial intelligence Government Central Asia Security Social Economy Strategy

Responsible AI Rankings: Uzbekistan Leads in Central Asia

The Global Center on AI Governance has published a report titled “Results of the Global Index on Responsible AI in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.” Among Central Asian countries, Uzbekistan has been judged to use artificial intelligence in the most responsible way. Recent AI initiatives in Uzbekistan cover fields including cultural and linguistic diversity, international cooperation, public sector skills development, and transparency. Kazakhstan ranks second in the region. Among Central Asian countries, Kazakhstan ranks first for the number of government initiatives related to responsible AI. Kyrgyzstan ranks third in the region, demonstrating significant non-governmental sector participation in responsible AI. However, the need for a comprehensive government system affects its overall outcome. The report states that the country has received a high rating for responsible AI governance, second only to Uzbekistan in the region. However, due to the scarcity of government frameworks, which, along with government initiatives, had the most weight in the index score, Kyrgyzstan scored lower in the Responsible AI Index. Tajikistan is the only Central Asian country with an AI national strategy aimed at development until 2040. It ranks fourth in the region. However, this strategy covers only 5 out of 19 thematic directions. Tajikistan's scores are relatively high regarding responsible AI governance; however, the country has the most passive non-state sector among the pillars assessed. Turkmenistan has the lowest indicator in the region. Government structures related to the responsible use of artificial intelligence have not been identified in the country.