Trade Routes - The Times Of Central Asia

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Digitalization

Digital Geopolitics and AI Strategy in Central Asia

Central Asia, long known as a crossroads of global trade routes, is once again emerging as a stage for strategic competition. This time, the old caravan routes have been replaced by digital highways. The new contest is over technologies and data flows. For countries in the region, especially Kazakhstan, choosing a digitalization model and an AI development strategy is no longer just a technical matter. It is a fundamental decision tied to national security and long-term competitiveness. Equally important is the “digital ideology” behind these choices, something clearly illustrated today by two giants of the Global South: China and India, each with over a billion people and very different approaches to digital growth. The Dragon's Shadow: China's Systematic Expansion in Central Asia China’s ongoing real estate crisis, rising debt, and slowing domestic demand have pushed Beijing to look outward for growth. One major tool is the Digital Silk Road, announced in 2015 as part of the Belt and Road Initiative. This long-term program aims to export Chinese digital technologies. For Central Asian states, it brings an appealing “one-stop shop” of turnkey solutions: everything from 5G mobile and 10G-PON fixed networks to smart city systems (Huawei, ZTE), surveillance platforms (Hikvision), and fintech tools (Ant Group, Tencent). The benefits come with risks. A heavy reliance on one supplier creates the danger of vendor lock-in. When an entire digital ecosystem is tied to a single foreign provider, questions of security and long-term debt become inevitable. Kazakhstan has shown flexibility by experimenting with mixed models rather than relying exclusively on Chinese systems. Competing Models: China's "Walled Garden" and India's "Digital Public Infrastructure" China: The model is centralized, built on state corporations and giant platforms. It delivers speed and scale of growth, but at the cost of strict control and regulation. The Chinese government has tightened its grip on big tech companies (Alibaba and Tencent), imposed stricter rules on the collection and use of personal data under the Personal Information Protection Law (2021), and limited the fintech divisions of major firms to prevent systemic risks. India: The state has developed India Stack, a package of open digital platforms (Aadhaar, UPI, DigiLocker) that serve as the rails for thousands of startups and services. This gave India global leadership in digital payments and created a model of open digitalization. Central Asia is already partially repeating this experience (Kazakhstan’s eGov.kz, Kaspi.kz, and the digital tenge), though without the depth and openness that made the Indian approach unique. Today, Central Asia is forming a pragmatic hybrid: Chinese hardware for rapid infrastructure, Indian logic in public services (GovTech, eGov.kz), and European regulatory standards under the GDPR (in force since 2018), which serves as a global benchmark of trust in data. This “three-axis” hybrid allows a balance between speed of implementation and regulatory control. Europe's Alternative: Global Gateway and the Digital Silk Way Europe seeks to strengthen its position in Central Asia and the South Caucasus by offering an alternative to Chinese expansion. Its key tool is the EU Global Gateway...

Middle East

Central Asia Rethinks Trade Routes Amid Middle East Crisis

The escalating conflict between Iran and Israel is threatening to disrupt Central Asia’s southern trade and transport corridors, prompting governments in the region to reassess their export strategies. According to the Russian outlet Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are exploring alternative routes to mitigate risks associated with instability in the Persian Gulf. A major concern is the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global trade. This poses a significant challenge for Kazakhstan, which relies on Iran as its sole southern railway outlet. Kazakhstan Seeks Alternative Kazakhstan’s Minister of National Economy, Serik Zhumangarin, emphasized the importance of maintaining uninterrupted cargo movement. “If rail service through Iran is disrupted, and this is our only southern route, the state is prepared to redirect cargo through alternative paths,” he said. Though exports via Iran remain relatively limited, about $350 million in 2024 and $120 million from January to May 2025, Kazakhstan had planned to expand its use of the Iranian corridor. In early June, Astana and Tehran agreed to boost wheat and barley shipments to three million tons annually. Alternatives under consideration include multimodal routes incorporating rail and ferry links across the Caspian Sea via Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, as well as the Trans-Caspian or “Middle Corridor” connecting China to Georgia via the Caspian. Air freight is also being considered for select goods. While these alternatives involve added logistical challenges, the government has pledged support to businesses should the conflict persist. Zhumangarin reassured that rerouting exports is unlikely to significantly affect prices, noting that most of Kazakhstan’s exports are globally traded commodities whose prices are shaped by international markets. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakh officials had already warned of risks to southern routes. Nonetheless, Zhumangarin emphasized that contingency plans are in place and that “it’s too early to say how the situation will evolve.” Uzbekistan Focuses on Diversification Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev has likewise responded swiftly, ordering an immediate assessment of the crisis's impact on trade and transportation, and calling for urgent diversification of export routes. According to the presidential press service, transport costs could rise by as much as 30%. “The need to redirect cargo flows to safer ports and negotiate alternative trade corridors with partner countries was emphasized,” the statement said. Authorities have been instructed to support export-oriented businesses and identify new markets to help stabilize domestic prices. Until recently, Uzbekistan had been expanding trade ties with Iran, aiming to increase bilateral trade to $2 billion annually. However, these plans are now under review due to the regional instability. Experts: Southern Routes Not Yet Critical Despite the growing concerns, experts say Uzbekistan is not heavily dependent on southern corridors. Grigory Mikhailov, editor-in-chief of the logistics portal LogiStan.info, noted that most of Uzbekistan’s trade continues through Russian ports (St. Petersburg, Vladivostok, Novorossiysk) and China. “These routes are well-established, reliable, and offer predictable delivery times. Sanctions have had little to no impact on cargo passing through Russia,” Mikhailov said. He added that the Iranian route...

Israel-Iran Escalation

After High Hopes, Central Asia Views Iran Trade Routes with More Caution

Like some Central Asian neighbors, Uzbekistan is urgently reviewing possible changes to some trade routes because of conflict in the Middle East, even though that could entail sharply higher transport costs. The contingency planning follows a surge in trade talks between officials from Iran and countries in Central Asia earlier this year, prior to the intense strikes that Israel and Iran launched at each other this month. A ceasefire between Israel and Iran appeared to be holding on Wednesday, but questions remain about Iran’s ability to build a nuclear bomb even after the U.S. attacked Iranian nuclear sites. U.S. President Donald Trump said the sites were “obliterated,” but, according to some Western media organizations, a preliminary U.S. intelligence report concluded that the U.S. attacks may have only set back Iran’s nuclear program by months. A June 25 statement by the Central Intelligence Agency says that “Iran’s nuclear program has been severely damaged by the recent, targeted strikes.” Against this murky backdrop, and the partial uncertainty over Central Asia’s extensive web of trade links, Uzbekistan is reviewing transport and logistics arrangements to keep its economy and connections with international partners running as smoothly as possible. Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev discussed options with key advisers at a meeting on Monday. “The military actions that have taken place in the Middle East in recent days have further aggravated the already unstable situation. This cannot but affect Uzbekistan's foreign economic relations and access to world markets,” Uzbekistan’s presidential office said. “In particular, the need to diversify export routes and redirect cargo to other, safer ports was noted. According to preliminary estimates, this could lead to an increase in transportation costs by up to 30%. In this regard, instructions were given to coordinate alternative routes with partner countries and support export-oriented enterprises,” the presidency said. It said the trade and transport ministers, as well as other key officials, have been instructed to help business groups with export-import operations and finding new sales markets. Maintaining price stability in the domestic market and sustainable production rates are also key concerns. Last month, Uzbek and Iranian officials met in Tehran and agreed to expand trade between their countries to an annual $2 billion, four times the current amount. Iranian ports offer Central Asian exporters access to the Indian Ocean and international markets beyond. “The five Central Asian republics — Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan — are increasingly seeking alternatives to the traditional transit routes that have tied them to Moscow or made them dependent on Chinese infrastructure,” said a commentary posted by the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, an Israel-based group that studies Mideast security and foreign policy. “Iran offers an appealing option: a gateway to the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean, access to European markets via Turkey, and industrial and technological partnerships that diversify the region’s economic relationships,” said the analysis, which was published on June 4, shortly before the recent round of fighting between Israel and Iran. Officials in Kazakhstan have warned of disruption to southern...

Trade Routes

The Abu Dhabi-Kazakhstan Connection

Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan led a delegation of officials and businessmen from the United Arab Emirates on a visit to Kazakhstan to attend the Kazakhstan-UAE Business Forum on May 12. During the visit, Kazakhstan and the UAE signed deals worth some $5 billion and not surprisingly, three of the nine agreements were with Abu Dhabi Ports Group. Building a new trade route to the south Abu Dhabi Ports Group (AD Ports Group) has been leading the way in connecting Kazakhstan to the Middle East, and in turn, the UAE company is looking to take advantage of Kazakhstan’s key position along the Middle Corridor trade route. In early August 2023, Davud Tafti, the head of AD Ports Group subsidiary Simatech Shipping & Forwarding, met with Kazakhstan’s Minister of Trade Serik Zhumangarin to discuss the shortest direct route for shipping “Kazakh export cargo the markets of the Persian Gulf, the Middle East, Pakistan, India and the coast of East Africa.” The route goes from Kazakhstan’s Caspian port of Kuryk to the Iranian Caspian port at Amirabad. From there goods are shipped to the Iranian Persian Gulf port at Bandar Abbas and loaded onto ships heading to UAE ports at Khalifa and Fujairah. The total time from Kuryk to Bandar Abbas is three days. By the time Tafti and Zhumangarin met, AD Ports Group had already purchased four ships with a capacity of 7.500 tons each for transportation of bulk, container, and general cargo along Caspian Sea routes. Tafti said there were plans to buy ten more similar vessels with Amirabad being used as their home port. Simatech Shipping & Forwarding also bought two barges, each capable of transporting 350 trucks, with plans to purchase 1,000 trucks for shipping goods between Amirabad and Bandar Abbas. AD Ports Group signed a strategic partnership agreement with state oil and gas company KazMunaiGas (KMG) in January 2023 aimed at developing Kazakhstan’s tanker fleet in the Caspian and Black seas. The parties formed a joint venture called Caspian Integrated Maritime Solutions (CIMS). CIMS announced in December 2023 that working with KMG subsidiary KazMorTransFlot, Kazakhstan’s national shipping company, it had acquired two oil tankers for use in the Caspian Sea. AD Ports Group reached an agreement in January 2024 to construct a facility on Kazakhstan’s Caspian coast for building and repairing ships. Work started in early 2025 on two container vessels, each with the capacity to carry more than 500 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) and built especially for use on the Caspian Sea. AD Ports Group also formed a joint venture with state railway company Kazakhstan Temir Zholy in December 2023 with the aim of improving logistics operations for transferring goods using rail and maritime routes. At the moment, the CIMS route is by far the fastest way for Kazakhstan to trade with the Middle East. In May 2025, Kazakhstan Temir Zholy sent the first shipment of wheat via Turkmenistan and Iran to Bandar Abbas, and from there by sea...

Trade Routes

New Freight Train Route Links China to Afghanistan via Central Asia

A freight train carrying communication equipment and other goods departed from Chongqing, China, on Monday and is expected to arrive in Afghanistan within 12 to 15 days, Xinhua has reported. This marks the launch of a new direct freight route between Chongqing and Afghanistan, passing through Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The train is transporting telecommunications equipment produced by Chinese tech company ZTE, which will be used to expand Afghanistan’s communication infrastructure. According to Liu Jianfeng, a representative from ZTE, the new rail route reduces transit time by three to five days compared to road transport, and lowers logistics costs by 15% to 20%. Xu Runqiu, an executive at Yuxin’ou (Chongqing) Supply Chain Management Company, emphasized that the route’s launch strengthens economic and trade ties between China and Central Asian countries. Chongqing has been positioning itself as a key inland logistics hub, with freight traffic to Central Asia and Europe expanding significantly in recent years. To date, the city has dispatched more than 18,000 freight trains across 50 routes, reaching over 100 cities in Asia and Europe.

Trade

Kyrgyzstan Secures Pavilion in Uzbek-Afghan Border Trade Center

The Ministry of Economy and Commerce of Kyrgyzstan has acquired a trade pavilion at the Termez International Trade Center in the town of Termez, Uzbekistan, near the Afghan border. This purchase agreement was signed on November 11 between the ministry and LLC Termez International Trade Centre, the center's management company. This pavilion offers Kyrgyzstan a strategic foothold to expand its presence in the markets of Uzbekistan and Afghanistan, promoting the export of Kyrgyz agricultural and industrial goods while enabling direct interaction with Afghan business partners. The Kyrgyz government has expressed an ongoing interest in strengthening economic relations with Afghanistan. From January to August 2024, trade between the two countries reached $14 million, with Afghan exports to Kyrgyzstan accounting for $6 million of this total, as noted in a recent report. The Termez International Trade Center serves as a vital hub at the intersection of Central Asian trade routes, facilitating substantial trade flows between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. Opened on August 29 by Uzbek Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov and the acting Afghan Deputy Prime Minister Abdul Ghani Baradar, the center features retail spaces, hotels, a medical center, and other amenities. It also supports transactions in multiple currencies, including U.S. dollars, euros, rubles, and yuan. Notably, Afghan citizens are allowed to visit and conduct trade at the Termez center for up to 15 days without requiring an Uzbek visa, enhancing accessibility for Afghan traders.