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Middle Corridor

Middle Corridor Freight Grows, but Eastbound Cargo Lags

Container traffic is growing along the Middle Corridor from China and Central Asia toward Europe, but the route is far less busy in the opposite direction. In the first eight months of 2026, about 80% of container traffic moved westward and only 20% eastward. Operators are now looking for goods in Europe and Türkiye that can be shipped back across the Caspian Sea and Kazakhstan toward Central Asia and China. Container traffic totaled 53,574 TEU along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, also known as the Middle Corridor, in January–August. One TEU is equivalent to a standard 20-foot container. During the same period last year, the figure was 48,326 TEU, meaning traffic increased by 11%. But the flows were highly uneven. According to ADY Express, 42,642 TEU moved from east to west, compared with just 10,932 TEU in the opposite direction – a ratio of almost four to one. Interest in the route increased sharply after 2022, when companies began looking for additional ways to move goods between China and Europe without transiting Russia. Over the past several years, participants in the Middle Corridor have focused on increasing shipments from China. New train services have been introduced, while countries along the route have invested in railways, terminals, and Caspian ports. Chinese freight has grown, but there is still not enough cargo for the return journey. For transport operators, the issue comes down to finances. Once containers reach Europe, they need to be used again or repositioned. If there is cargo for the return journey, the equipment generates revenue in both directions. Without it, operators can face the cost of moving empty equipment. The 80%-to-20% split, however, does not establish how many containers actually make the return journey without cargo. Railway companies themselves are now acknowledging the shortage of eastbound cargo. “For this, backhaul freight is necessary,” Emil Mammadov, Adviser to the Chairman of Azerbaijan Railways, said at the Black Sea and Caspian Freight Forum 2026 in Baku. According to Mammadov, attracting cargo from Europe would help increase freight volumes, optimize transportation costs, and allow at least some containers to be returned to their countries of origin. Until now, the route has been promoted more actively in China, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Türkiye. European companies have received less attention. Railway operators are now looking for customers at the western end of the corridor as well. A shipment from Türkiye showed what such a return journey could look like. In May, KTZ Express and Pasifik Eurasia dispatched a train from Izmir to China carrying household refrigerators. Fifty 40-foot containers crossed the Caspian Sea, traveled through Kazakhstan, and continued into China via the Altynkol border station. For now, such shipments remain limited. The Chinese side continues to push for more westbound traffic. On September 9, Azerbaijan Railways held talks with Shanghai International Port Group and Lianyungang Port on expanding shipments of Chinese goods through Kazakhstan, across the Caspian, and through Azerbaijan toward Europe. ADY Express also reported that 265 container block trains operated along...

Cryptocurrency

Uzbekistan Tests HUMO Stablecoin for Everyday Payments

Uzbekistan has begun its first experiment using a privately issued stablecoin called HUMO to pay for everyday goods and services. A stablecoin is a digital token designed to keep a fixed value, rather than rise and fall sharply like Bitcoin. One HUMO will be pegged to one Uzbek soum, with the tokens backed by government securities. The name may cause some confusion because HUMO is also the name of an Uzbek payment system. The token is not a bank card or a central bank digital currency and is separate from that payment system. HUMO Digital, a private company, is listed by the National Agency for Perspective Projects (NAPP) as the stablecoin’s issuer. The project is being conducted under the joint supervision of the Central Bank and NAPP. Until now, crypto assets could not legally be used to pay directly for goods and services in Uzbekistan. The Central Bank and NAPP have decided to test an exception under a special regulatory regime. On September 2, HUMO Digital was registered to take part in the experiment. The project will test the issuance, circulation, and redemption of HUMO, as well as its use to pay for goods and services. More than 20 companies are prepared to accept the tokens during the pilot. Asterium, which is licensed as a crypto exchange, crypto depository, and crypto shop, is also participating in the project. Each HUMO issued is to be backed by Uzbek government securities. In practice, that means HUMO Digital will hold government debt as collateral behind the tokens it issues. The Central Bank will monitor whether there are enough assets backing the tokens and whether those assets are safely held. It will also assess whether payments and consumers are adequately protected, along with any effects that wider use of HUMO could have on inflation, monetary policy, and financial stability. The experiment is initially planned for 12 months. It can be extended, although the project cannot last more than three years in total. The results will help regulators decide how such digital financial instruments should be regulated in the future. The choice of the soum sets the Uzbek project apart from most of the global stablecoin market. Neighboring Kazakhstan is also exploring a potential stablecoin, although its proposed structure has not been disclosed. Nearly all major stablecoins are pegged to the U.S. dollar. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), approximately 98% of stablecoin value is denominated in dollars. The best-known examples are Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC). In effect, they allow users to hold and transfer something closely tied to the value of the dollar at any time and across borders. For countries with their own currencies, that convenience can create a problem. If people increasingly save or pay in dollar-backed tokens instead of the local currency, the local currency can lose ground. The BIS warns that widespread stablecoin adoption in emerging economies could accelerate what it calls digital dollarization and make it harder for central banks to manage their economies. Tashkent...

Kazakhstan Oil Exports

Kazakhstan Seeks Oil Export Alternatives After Latest CPC Disruption

A drone incident near the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal outside Novorossiysk briefly halted oil loading on September 8, again highlighting Kazakhstan’s dependence on its main export route through Russia. Astana is seeking to expand alternatives, but the difference in volumes remains enormous. According to Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry, the country exported 64.8 million tons of oil through CPC in 2025. The ministry puts shipments via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline at 1.2 million tons annually. Azerbaijan has said it is ready to receive up to 2.2 million tons of Kazakh oil through BTC annually, although KazMunayGas expects shipments of up to 1.6 million tons in 2026. Even this higher figure would be only around 3% of the volume Kazakhstan exported through CPC last year. The Caspian route allows oil from Kazakhstan to bypass Russian territory entirely. Crude is shipped to the port of Aktau, carried by tanker across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan, and then transported through the BTC pipeline via Georgia to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. However, the logistics are more complicated than direct pipeline transportation. A substantial increase in exports could require additional tanker capacity and improvements to transport infrastructure on both sides of the Caspian. Kazakhstan also exports oil eastward to China. Another alternative is the Atyrau-Samara pipeline, although it feeds crude into Russia’s pipeline system and does not reduce reliance on Russian transit. The latest incident temporarily stopped loading at two single-point moorings, the offshore facilities used to load crude onto tankers. Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry said inspections of the equipment and vessels found no issues affecting continued loading. It reported no environmental impact. Loading resumed, and CPC imposed no restrictions on accepting crude from Kazakh shippers. CPC operations had already been interrupted several times in 2026 following attacks in the terminal area. The disruptions have added up. Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov estimated that incidents affecting CPC in January and July had caused about 3.5 million tons of lost production. He said Kazakhstan would have to lower its 2026 oil production forecast from 98 million tons to around 96 million tons. The problem for Astana is the scale of its dependence. CPC connects Kazakhstan’s largest oilfields to the Black Sea and accounted for approximately 82% of the country’s 78.7 million tons of oil exports in 2025. Even doubling or tripling shipments across the Caspian would leave CPC dominant. Kazakhstan can gradually spread its exports across several routes, but the alternatives cannot currently replace its main export channel. For more on our special coverage, click here.

Economic Growth

Kyrgyzstan Records Double-Digit Growth as Inflation Stays Above 11%

Kyrgyzstan’s economy grew by 11.1% in the first seven months of 2026, but households also faced double-digit inflation. Annual price growth reached 11.5% in July. The latest poverty figures show that 24% of the population remained below the national poverty line in 2025. According to the latest macroeconomic review by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), the expansion has been driven primarily by a surge in investment and strong consumer demand. Kyrgyzstan’s growth rate exceeded those reported by several Central Asian neighbors, although the figures cover different periods. Kazakhstan’s economy expanded by 4.1% in January–July. Uzbekistan and Tajikistan grew by 8.5% and 8.2%, respectively, in the first half of the year. The EDB forecasts growth of 10.2% for Kyrgyzstan over 2026 as a whole. Average real wages, adjusted for inflation, rose by 15.3% in January–June. This indicates stronger purchasing power among wage earners on average, but does not establish an improvement across all households. Investment increased by 58.8% over the first seven months. Budget financing for investment increased by about 70%, while bank financing rose to 4.3 times its previous level. Fixed-capital investment financed by foreign direct investment rose to 15.3 times its previous level. Budget revenues also increased by 48.8% in the first half of the year, while the republican budget recorded a surplus equivalent to 6.1% of GDP. Price Growth Remains in Double Digits Annual inflation reached 11.5% in July, up from 11% a month earlier. The pressure is visible in everyday purchases. In July alone, average prices for horsemeat rose by 5.4%, lamb by 4%, and beef by 3.9%, although potatoes became cheaper. Housing and utility costs were also rising rapidly, with annual inflation in that category reaching 11.2%. Fuel prices are another source of pressure. The National Bank says higher global oil prices, amid the conflict in the Middle East and concerns over petroleum supplies, have raised the cost of imported fuel. Those increases then feed into transport and production costs across the economy. By August 24, the National Bank put annual inflation at 11.7%, with prices up 7.3% since the start of the year. On the same day, it kept its policy rate at 12%. The central bank cited persistent inflationary pressure, including higher import costs and production expenses. Its inflation target range is 5%–7%. The EDB expects inflation to end 2026 at about 11.5%, still well above that range. IMF Proposes Changes to Public-Sector Pay The International Monetary Fund has also examined public-sector compensation. In a technical assistance report published on September 2, it notes pay raises of 50% for doctors and 25% for nurses in 2024. The report also records a 63% increase in remuneration for the social sector in 2026. According to the IMF, large, infrequent pay increases can add to inflationary pressures and make government spending more difficult to manage. The IMF recommends moving away from large, episodic increases toward more regular salary adjustments that account for inflation, available fiscal space, and labor market conditions. This would make wage growth and government...

Astana Finance Days 2026

Astana Finance Days: From BlackRock to Mining and Data Centers

In a trading hall in Astana, BlackRock was explaining why investors have become more cautious. A few floors away, geologists were pitching 23 mining projects, while financiers debated how many megawatts the next wave of artificial intelligence will require. That was how the first day of Astana Finance Days unfolded, as Kazakhstan brought together financial groups managing more than $26 trillion in assets – and sought to show them where that money could be put to work in Central Asia. The ninth Astana Finance Days is taking place on September 9–10 at the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC), Kazakhstan’s special financial jurisdiction with its own regulator and a court system based on English common law principles. According to the organizers, around 8,000 participants from 90 countries registered for the forum. Institutions represented include BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Capital Group, Brookfield, Rothschild & Co., Hong Kong Investment Corporation, and IFC Asset Management Company. The stated $26 trillion refers to the combined assets under management of participating firms worldwide – not investment pledged to Kazakhstan. More concrete signals emerged on the sidelines. Meshal Jaber AlFaras, Janus Henderson Investors’ head of the Middle East, Africa, and Central Asia, said the investment group is considering direct investments in Kazakhstan and plans to expand its presence in the country. Janus Henderson manages around $500 billion in assets. AlFaras did not disclose potential projects or investment amounts. A New Price for Risk One of the first day’s most prominent discussions took place at the Astana International Exchange (AIX), the AIFC’s stock exchange. Ben Powell, Chief Investment Strategist for the Asia-Pacific region at the BlackRock Investment Institute, spoke about how geopolitics is reshaping capital flows. “Today, we are in a structurally new regime – moving into a more complicated world where geopolitical fragmentation is intensifying, alliances are breaking down, and international relationships are changing. Of course, this affects investors. They need to completely rethink their approaches to investing,” Powell said. Higher inflation and interest rates, he continued, are changing attitudes toward risk. For smaller emerging markets, that means greater scrutiny of currency stability, regulation, and liquidity. A few halls away, that global discussion was already turning into pitches for specific mineral projects. From the Geological Map to the Investor Fifteen companies brought 23 mining projects to Astana Finance Days. Most are still at the exploration stage. In the industry, such companies are known as juniors. They search for mineral deposits and try to demonstrate that the resources they discover can eventually be mined profitably. For an ordinary bank, the risk is high: a promising area on a geological map does not yet guarantee a working mine. At the forum, companies briefly pitched their projects before moving into individual negotiations. More than ten Kazakh and international investors and strategic partners attended the pitch session. The Junior Mining Platform, launched this spring, is intended to turn this search for capital into a permanent mechanism. Private investors take on early geological risk; as reserves are confirmed and technical uncertainty declines, larger...

Oil and Gas

Kazakhstan Pauses Collection of $5 Billion Fine from Kashagan Operator

Kazakhstan has suspended enforcement proceedings to collect about $5 billion from North Caspian Operating Company (NCOC), the operator of the Kashagan oil field. The fine itself remains in force. The pause followed a new challenge by the company in a Kazakh court, and the Justice Ministry has said it intends to resume collection efforts. Enforcement proceedings involving 2.3 trillion tenge ($5.06 billion) were suspended on September 7. NCOC challenged the actions of a state enforcement officer, after which the Specialized Interdistrict Administrative Court of Atyrau Region requested the case materials. While those materials are before the court, enforcement proceedings must be suspended. Before the suspension, authorities had stepped up collection efforts. The deadline for voluntary payment expired on July 20, after which the authorities began enforcement proceedings. On July 21, NCOC’s property and vehicles were frozen. The company’s managing director, Giancarlo Ruiu, was also warned of possible administrative and criminal liability for failure to comply with the court ruling. At issue is sulfur produced as a byproduct of processing oil and gas at Kashagan. Kazakhstan’s environmental authorities accused NCOC of storing volumes exceeding the limits set by its environmental permit. The consortium rejects both the allegations and the fine. Although the authorities’ original order was overturned over procedural violations, environmental regulators subsequently issued a new one. The reissued penalty was upheld by Kazakh courts, including the Atyrau Regional Court in June 2026, allowing the authorities to move toward enforcement. The dispute also has an international legal dimension. NCOC’s foreign shareholders have challenged the penalty through international treaty arbitration. Separately, NCOC said in July that a tribunal applying the rules of the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL) had issued an interim order barring Kazakhstan from enforcing the fine while those proceedings were pending. Kazakh authorities rejected NCOC’s interpretation of the order, arguing that the commercial arbitration tribunal could not prevent the state from enforcing its environmental laws and domestic court judgments. The Justice Ministry has made clear that the current suspension stems from NCOC’s challenge to the enforcement officer in a Kazakh administrative court, rather than from the UNCITRAL order. Kashagan is one of Kazakhstan’s largest oil fields and one of the world’s biggest oil discoveries of recent decades. Recoverable reserves are estimated at 9 billion to 13 billion barrels. The field produced 18.2 million tons of oil in 2025. The project is backed by some of the world’s largest oil companies. KazMunayGas holds 16.88%, while Eni, ExxonMobil, Shell, and TotalEnergies each hold about 16.81%. CNPC owns 8.33% and Japan’s Inpex 7.56%. For Kazakhstan, Kashagan is one of its main sources of oil production and export revenue. For the international companies, the dispute is also a test of the operating environment at the country’s largest oil fields. Kazakhstan accounts for around 2% of global daily oil supply, and the Kashagan case comes amid several multibillion-dollar legal disputes between Astana and international oil companies. The environmental fine is not the only dispute surrounding Kashagan. Kazakhstan has also brought claims against investors over costs...