Kazakhstan Business & Economy - The Times Of Central Asia

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Economic Growth

Kazakhstan Ranks 38th in IMD World Competitiveness Ranking

Kazakhstan ranked 38th among 70 economies in the 2026 IMD World Competitiveness Ranking. With an index score of 65.4, Kazakhstan ranked ahead of Spain, Portugal, Poland, India, and Italy. Singapore took first place, followed by Hong Kong and Switzerland. The annual ranking assesses economies across four main areas — economic performance, government efficiency, business efficiency and infrastructure. IMD combines statistical data with a survey of senior executives. Hard data account for two-thirds of the ranking and covered 172 criteria in 2026, while responses from around 6,900 executives were used for another 92 criteria. IMD’s methodology explains that the indicators are designed to measure both quantifiable economic conditions and how businesses view the environment in which they operate. Kazakhstan’s strongest results came in government and business efficiency, where it ranked 23rd globally in both categories. Tax policy was a particular strength, placing ninth among the 70 economies assessed. Kazakhstan’s economy expanded by 6.5% in 2025, the sixth-highest growth rate among the economies assessed by IMD. It also ranked sixth among economies with GDP per capita below $20,000. Kazakhstan is the only Central Asian economy included in the 2026 IMD World Competitiveness Ranking. IMD relies heavily on internationally comparable statistics and business survey data. Reliable data is essential for judging competitiveness. Kazakhstan leads Central Asia in the World Bank’s Statistical Performance Indicators and, alongside Kyrgyzstan, was one of only two regional governments to meet the U.S. State Department’s 2026 minimum fiscal-transparency requirements. Kazakhstan has also subscribed to the International Monetary Fund’s Special Data Dissemination Standard since March 2003. The standard sets requirements for the coverage, periodicity, and timeliness of economic data, as well as public access, integrity and information on methodology.

Bonds Investments

Kazakhstan to Receive Maximum Weight in New JPMorgan Bond Index

Kazakhstan will receive the maximum 8% country weight in JPMorgan’s new index for frontier market government bonds, creating an opportunity to attract new foreign buyers of tenge-denominated debt. JPMorgan plans to launch the GBI-EM Edge by the end of September. The maximum weight for any single country is capped at 8%, and Kazakhstan will receive the full quota. Vietnam, Pakistan, and Bangladesh will have the same weight. Other major components will include Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, and Sri Lanka. The index will cover 26 countries, with nearly $330 billion in bonds eligible for inclusion. GBI-EM Edge is designed for frontier markets, relatively less accessible markets outside JPMorgan’s main emerging market benchmark. Inclusion is a separate development from Kazakhstan’s efforts to join that main index. The index will serve as a benchmark for international asset managers. Some funds seek to replicate its composition, while others use it to compare the performance of their own portfolios. A country’s weight can therefore influence how much money investors allocate to its bonds. However, the nearly $330 billion represents the value of bonds eligible for the GBI-EM Edge, not the amount of future investment. JPMorgan has not yet said how much capital will directly track the new index. That will largely determine how significant the additional demand for Kazakh debt may be. Foreign Investors Have Already Increased Their Holdings Foreign investors began actively buying Kazakhstan’s government debt even before JPMorgan’s decision. According to the Analytical Center of the Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK), non-resident holdings of government securities reached KZT 2.5 trillion, or about $5.4 billion, by the end of June. During the first half of the year, their portfolio grew by 28.3%, while the share of non-residents in the government securities market increased from 6.2% to 6.9%. In June alone, foreign investors added KZT 185.1 billion, or about $400 million. Just a year and a half earlier, non-resident holdings stood at around KZT 1.1 trillion, or about $2.4 billion. Kazakhstan has maintained a high base rate to combat inflation. This has also kept yields on government bonds high. According to AFK, real yields on government securities – meaning returns above inflation – ranged from 5.7% to 7.4% in the first half of the year. The association’s analysts also linked strong demand to expectations of a gradual reduction in the base rate. For a foreign fund, the trade can look attractive: raise money in a market with lower interest rates, buy tenge, and invest in Kazakh government bonds. If the tenge remains stable or strengthens, the investor benefits both from the high interest rate and from the currency movement. If the tenge falls, some of that return disappears when the investment is converted back into dollars. The tenge’s appreciation has already helped foreign bondholders. It strengthened by 2.6% during August, ending the month at KZT 461.57 per dollar, according to the National Bank. AFK points to another effect of foreign purchases. To buy the bonds, non-residents sell foreign currency and purchase tenge, increasing the supply...

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

How Almaty and Astana Built Central Asia’s Deepest Business Ecosystem

Every region has cities that pull people and money toward them. New York, London, Dubai, and Singapore became places where ambitious people went to make careers, companies went to find talent, and investors went to put money to work. Once that concentration takes hold, it feeds on itself. More companies create more jobs, more talent attracts more companies, and banks, lawyers, consultants, airlines, schools and restaurants grow around them. Central Asia has developed its own version of that gravitational pull. Almaty has long been the region’s main commercial center and was Kazakhstan’s capital until 1997. It remains effectively tethered to Astana by intense passenger traffic and the constant movement of businesspeople, officials and professionals between the two cities. Astana has grown around government, international finance, technology and diplomacy. Together, they function as a two-city economic and political engine. The numbers explain much of this. The Times of Central Asia’s Central Asia Balance Sheet puts Kazakhstan at $306.2 billion of the five Central Asian economies combined $543.4 billion in GDP, or 56.4%. Its share of accumulated foreign investment is even larger. The Balance Sheet puts Central Asia’s inward foreign direct investment (FDI) stock at $235.6 billion at the end of 2025, of which Kazakhstan held $156.4 billion, or 66.4%. FDI stock represents capital accumulated over years rather than announced agreements or one unusually strong year of inflows. Almaty and Astana Play Different Roles Almaty accounted for 22.7% of Kazakhstan’s GDP in 2025 and Astana another 12.3%, putting their economies at roughly $69 billion and $38 billion respectively. Together they produced around $107 billion. Almaty is Kazakhstan’s main business and financial center. Kazakhstan’s largest banks, investment firms, multinational offices, lawyers, accountants and consultants are concentrated there. The Globalization and World Cities research network (GaWC) placed Almaty in its Gamma+ group in 2024, alongside Austin, Antwerp, and Kuwait City. GaWC bases the classification on the networks of major international business-service firms, offering a measure of how closely a city is connected to the global corporate economy. Consistent with that ranking, multinational companies have also chosen Almaty as a base for regional operations. Mars runs its eleven-country regional headquarters from Almaty, covering all five Central Asian states, the South Caucasus, Belarus, Mongolia, and Turkey. Mastercard describes Almaty as a regional hub and the heart of its consulting operations for the CIS, Central and Eastern Europe. Kazakhstan is unusual in Central Asia in having two major hubs. In functional terms, Astana complements Almaty much as Washington D.C. complements New York: Almaty is the deeper commercial center, while Astana concentrates government, sovereign institutions, diplomacy, and national policy. Astana has also developed regional corporate operations of its own. Alstom runs its Western and Central Asia cluster from the capital, and Mercuria opened a regional office there in 2026 headed by its CEO for Central Asia and the Caspian region. U.S. rail company Wabtec has made Astana a regional locomotive production and engineering base, reinforced by its $4.2 billion agreement as Kazakhstan expands its Middle Corridor links to...

Astana Finance Days 2026

Astana Finance Days: Rewiring Finance at Institutional Scale – The Case for Deeper Financial Markets

Kazakhstan needs deeper financial markets and a system less dependent on banks, senior financial officials told Astana Finance Days on September 9, 2026. Speakers at the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC) explored how digital finance could support that shift during the plenary session, "Innovation at Institutional Scale: Rewiring the Architecture of Finance." The turnout was standing-room only. Over the next fifty minutes, the panelists discussed Kazakhstan’s ambitions as a financial hub and the conditions needed to advance them. Moderator Sallianne Taylor, Bloomberg's EMEA Head of Government Relations, opened by asking what is fundamentally changing in the architecture of global finance, and what it means for Kazakhstan. There were five panelists: Timur Suleimenov, Governor of the National Bank of Kazakhstan; Renat Bekturov, Governor of the AIFC; Timur Turlov, Chief Executive of Freedom Holding Corp.; Sergio Mello, Global Head of Stablecoin Solutions at Anchorage Digital; and Balaji Srinivasan, founder of Network School and bestselling author of The Network State. The Governor's Priority: Stability Before Speed Governor Suleimenov began by naming "geopolitical tension" as the backdrop to today's discussions. "This is the elephant in the room, which we cannot ignore," he said, without further comment. He then described trade and finance flows as changing fundamentally, pointing to "division across the Atlantic. We're seeing trade wars, semi-trade wars across the world." He explained that "finance has always been a partner with trade, investment and finance." That atmosphere of uncertainty "reshapes financial flows," he said. Turning to technology, he noted that "with the invention of blockchain, cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, and everything in between, the traditional financial system has started to undergo very fundamental change. I think we're still in the rule-setting phase." As a result, he said, "There is no set of global rules for decentralized finance, for digital finance, crypto finance. Many countries are looking to strike the right balance between the traditional financial institutions such as banks or commodities or securities markets, and the new ways of doing finance that the market is offering." For Kazakhstan specifically, he argued the moment favors the country rather than threatens it. "I think for Kazakhstan, it's more of an opportunity," he said, pointing to its standing as the region's largest economy by GDP and GDP per capita, and its position as "the biggest financial system, the best financial system, the most capitalized" in Central Asia. That confidence carried into the moderator's next question: "As a central banker, how do you balance innovation with preserving that financial stability and trust?" Suleimenov called it "a never-ending story," then offered the line that framed the whole session: "When you see something new, and you don't have the rules for it, of course you have to evaluate it based on its merits and based on principles rather than rules, and then you come up with rules." He was candid about the risk that comes with new financial technology, but just as quick to put it in proportion. "What we've been seeing in Kazakhstan, I mean, it's 90% positive," he said, acknowledging...

Astana Finance Days 2026

From Transit to Capital: What Investors Were Looking for in Kazakhstan at Astana Finance Days

On the second day of Astana Finance Days, Kazakhstan was trying to answer the question that follows almost every discussion about new railways, power plants, data centers, and factories: where will the money come from? International banks, asset managers, and stock exchanges gathered in Astana, and the conversation quickly reached a point – foreign capital is interested in the country, but its domestic stock market remains too small for many large investors. From Transit to Transactions The title of the first major discussion of the second day – “From Transit to Transactions” – neatly captured the idea. Kazakhstan already earns money from its position between China and Europe and is investing billions in railways, ports, and energy infrastructure. Now Astana wants financial transactions to move alongside the freight, and some of that capital to remain in the country. The Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC), where the forum is being held, was created partly for that purpose. It is a separate financial jurisdiction within Kazakhstan, with its own regulator, court, and legal framework based on the principles of English common law. According to the center, by June 2026 its platform had helped attract $25.3 billion in investment to Kazakhstan, while the number of registered companies had exceeded 5,800. But the presence of international companies does not necessarily mean they are ready to invest. Jad Ellawn, Managing Partner for the Middle East at Brookfield, one of the world’s largest alternative asset managers, began with three conditions. “The fundamental principles for an investor looking to enter a country consist of three components. First is having the proper legislation. Second is respect for capital: a country needs to demonstrate that capital is important to it not only domestically, but beyond its borders. Third is scalability,” he said. “In addition to energy resources, Kazakhstan has many other natural resources, and your country is the ninth-largest country in the world. This means you have many potential industries that you could develop, unlike the Gulf.” Yilmaz Kocagoz of Goldman Sachs, one of the largest U.S. investment banks, looked at Kazakhstan through the lens of manufacturing and infrastructure. “For Kazakhstan to diversify its economy beyond commodities, it needs to develop manufacturing and infrastructure,” he said. Kocagoz also pointed to Kazakhstan’s relatively low government debt burden. For an investor, that means a smaller share of the country’s future revenues is already committed to servicing a large public debt. Nurlan Zhakupov, the CEO of Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund Samruk-Kazyna, put a price tag on the country’s investment program: more than 100 projects worth $105 billion. “We see demand from local businesses and enormous interest from foreign partners. We are also seeing growing consumption of electricity and natural gas, as well as demand for the transportation of electricity, oil, gas, and petroleum products,” Zhakupov said. He ended with an invitation: “Overall, Kazakhstan currently has a good business climate, and now is a good time to enter the Kazakh economy.” The next discussion in the same building helped explain why that does...

Artificial Intelligence

Kazakhstan Prepares for China Investment Forum While Pursuing U.S. AI Ties

Kazakhstan will host a major investment forum with China in Almaty on September 25, with artificial intelligence expected to feature prominently among potential new agreements. The meeting comes as Astana deepens technology cooperation with Beijing while remaining part of the U.S.-backed Pax Silica initiative. Tokayev confirmed his participation in the forum in an interview with China’s Xinhua News Agency. “This forum is intended to serve as a platform for launching new concrete economic and investment cooperation projects,” the president said. In the same interview, Tokayev outlined potential cooperation with China in AI and digital technologies, ranging from industry, mining, and energy to transport, healthcare, satellite technology, and data centers. Some projects in these areas are already being discussed with Chinese businesses. During Tokayev’s July visit to Shanghai, Kazakhstan and Chinese companies signed more than 70 commercial agreements with a stated value exceeding $15 billion. They included projects involving Huawei, robotics development, AI in the automotive industry, and the Data Center Valley in Ekibastuz, where a complex with capacity of up to 1 GW is planned. Two International Initiatives in Three Weeks On June 25, Kazakhstan became the first country in Central Asia to join Pax Silica, a U.S.-backed initiative aimed at developing trusted supply chains for the AI economy. It covers areas including semiconductors, critical minerals, computing infrastructure, energy, and advanced manufacturing. Kazakhstan also signed a joint statement with the United States on an AI Opportunity Partnership. On July 16, Kazakhstan joined 28 other countries in Shanghai in signing an agreement to establish the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization (WAICO). The organization, headquartered in Shanghai, says its goals include expanding international cooperation and developing approaches to global AI governance. Its other founding participants include Brazil, China, Indonesia, Russia, and the four other Central Asian states: Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Beijing is promoting wider access to AI technologies and open models, workforce development, and greater participation by developing countries in setting international rules. China is also seeking to reduce its technology sector’s dependence on U.S. components. Kazakhstan, meanwhile, has remained part of Pax Silica. Washington Raises the Question of Choosing Sides On August 14, Reuters reported that the U.S. State Department had drafted a letter for countries partnering with Washington on AI. Countries participating in both Pax Silica and the China-backed initiative could be asked to choose between the two frameworks. A U.S. official told Reuters that Washington wanted a clearer separation between the American and Chinese technology ecosystems. The report specifically identified Kazakhstan as a participant in both initiatives and said its dual participation had raised concerns in Washington. At the time, the document remained a draft. There is no public evidence that Kazakhstan has received such a demand or that Washington has formally required Astana to choose between the two initiatives. Several weeks later, Tokayev argued in his Xinhua interview against dividing technology along geopolitical lines. “AI should not become the privilege of a narrow circle of the most technologically advanced states, much less turn into a new...