Kazakhstan Business & Economy - The Times Of Central Asia

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Economic Growth

Kazakhstan’s GDP Growth Tops 4% in First Half of 2026 Despite Lower Oil Output

Kazakhstan’s economy expanded by 4.1% in the first half of 2026, driven primarily by strong growth in non-oil sectors despite a decline in crude oil production, according to the Ministry of National Economy, citing data from the Bureau of National Statistics. Economic growth accelerated from 3.7% recorded during the first five months of the year, while manufacturing continued to outperform the broader economy. According to the ministry, real GDP growth reached 4.1% in January-June, even as oil production fell 8.4% compared with the same period last year. “The non-oil sector remains the main driver of growth, expanding by more than 5% during the first half of the year,” the ministry said. “More than 80% of GDP growth came from manufacturing, construction, trade, and transport.” Construction remained the fastest-growing sector, with output increasing 15.2% year on year. Kazakhstan commissioned 8.5 million square meters of housing during the first six months of the year, 6.7% more than during the same period in 2025. Manufacturing output expanded 9.8% during the first half of the year. Total manufacturing production reached $34.1 billion, surpassing mining output of approximately $33.6 billion. Although growth slowed in metallurgy, which accounts for more than 40% of Kazakhstan’s manufacturing sector, other industries posted strong gains. Production of fabricated metal products increased 39.9%, automobile manufacturing rose 31.6%, pharmaceutical output grew 43.6%, chemicals expanded 20.7%, rubber and plastic products increased 21.8%, construction materials rose 14.1%, and food production climbed 14.7%. Other sectors also maintained positive momentum. Trade expanded 5.7%, agriculture grew 4.4%, telecommunications services increased 4.3%, and transport and logistics services rose 7.1%. Growth in transport was supported by a 14% increase in auxiliary transport services, while rail freight volumes rose 4.9% and road freight transportation increased 11.4%. Investment activity also remained robust. Investment in fixed capital increased 9.6% compared with the first half of 2025. The strongest gains were recorded in information and communications, where investment more than doubled, electricity supply at 61.4%, manufacturing at 33.3%, agriculture at 24.6%, and transport at 11.6%. “The dynamic development of non-resource sectors and strong investment activity continue to provide a solid foundation for Kazakhstan’s economic growth,” the ministry said. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan’s GDP could reach $320 billion by the end of 2026, up from $306 billion a year earlier. S&P Global Ratings projects GDP growth of 4.1% in 2026, down from 6.5% in 2025. Kazakhstan’s National Development Plan through 2029 sets a GDP growth target of 6.2% for 2026.

Aquaculture

Kazakhstan Begins Construction of Its First Fish Feed Plant

Kazakhstan has begun construction of its first plant to produce extruded fish feed, with support from the Ministry of Agriculture. The facility will have an annual capacity of 25,000 tons, helping to meet the needs of the country’s rapidly expanding aquaculture sector. The project is regarded as a strategic step for Kazakhstan’s fisheries industry because it is expected to reduce dependence on imported feed and expand domestic fish production capacity. Commercial fish farming has been growing steadily in recent years. In 2025, Kazakhstan produced approximately 23,000 tons of aquaculture products, including around 4,000 tons of trout. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, aquaculture output is projected to reach 64,700 tons in 2026. The expansion of fish farming has significantly increased demand for high-quality feed. Kazakhstan’s aquaculture sector requires approximately 72,000 tons of fish feed annually. While domestic manufacturers already supply most of this demand, the industry continues to rely on imports for high-protein feed. The shortage is particularly acute for feed used to raise high-value species such as trout and sturgeon, as this type of feed has not previously been produced domestically. The new plant is therefore expected to supply Kazakhstan’s fish farms with high-quality domestic feed. Kazakhstan’s fish market reached 106,500 tons in 2025, up 13% from 2024. According to Serik Sermagambetov, chairman of the Fisheries Committee at the Ministry of Agriculture, fish production is expected to reach 2.5 times its current level by 2028. He cited government support and industry digitalization, with new investment projects also expected to contribute. Commercial fish catches are projected to reach 100,000 tons by 2029. By 2029, the modernization of fish hatcheries is expected to increase annual juvenile fish production from 18 million to 85 million. According to Sermagambetov, Kazakhstan harvested 49,600 tons of fish from natural water bodies and produced 22,900 tons through aquaculture in 2025. Exports totaled 21,000 tons of fish products. The fishing industry currently comprises 537 enterprises employing more than 12,000 people. Fish processing is carried out by 73 facilities with a combined annual capacity of 126,000 tons. Twenty of these plants are authorized to export to the European Union, while Kazakhstan’s fish products are shipped to 21 countries. In 2025, fish processing volumes reached 37,000 tons, up 24% from the previous year. To encourage higher-value processing, the government has introduced tax incentives and financial support measures. Fish processors benefit from a 70% reduction in value-added tax and access to preferential working capital loans at an annual interest rate of 5%. Aquaculture remains a key government priority. State support for fish farms reached approximately $10.1 million in 2026, 11.5 times the 2021 level. Over the same period, the number of registered fish farms doubled to 684.

AI Data Center

Kazakhstan Says $10 Billion AI Data Center Project Is Moving Into Deployment

Kazakhstan says a $10 billion AI data center project in Ekibastuz is moving into deployment. Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov told President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev on July 13 that partners were rolling out 250 megawatts of infrastructure. He said the project had attracted more than $10 billion in foreign investment. The statement gives firmer shape to a plan announced only six months ago. The northern-eastern Kazakh city of Ekibastuz grew around coal mines and giant power stations, but after the collapse of the Soviet Union, jobs disappeared, leaving the city to live in the shadow of its industrial peak. It has shared the wider population decline across the country’s north and east: despite fresh investment, the city lost more than 1,000 residents during 2025. The government now wants the city to export computing power as well as electricity, using its industrial grid to draw global AI companies to northern Kazakhstan. The site has moved beyond planning documents. By May 25, crews had completed geodetic work and started engineering and geological surveys. Workers were excavating pits for modular blocks, while equipment and personnel had reached the site. Tokayev announced the Data Center Valley in January as part of Kazakhstan's wider digital drive. The first 125 MW center is due in the first half of 2027, with a second facility of the same size planned for 2028. Bektenov has said all government data now sits in a 6 MW center in Astana, which shows the jump in scale. Those first two centers are only the beginning of a much larger development. Pavlodar officials have allocated 177 hectares, including 124.4 hectares for the opening phase. They expect later centers to enter service between 2029 and 2033, with up to ten facilities across the completed cluster. The site could eventually reach 1 GW, while an earlier government estimate put total investment near $30 billion. The first center will draw power from an existing 215 MW substation. Across the wider development, officials say 300 MW is already available, with capacity eventually rising to 1 GW. The Satpayev Canal will supply water for staff and site operations, with daily use estimated at 2,300 cubic meters. Separate reserves will be kept for fire protection. NVIDIA Vice President Rev Lebaredian put the case plainly in June: “Everything begins with energy. If you do not have energy, you cannot build the rest.” He added that Kazakhstan had energy “in abundance.” In Ekibastuz, cold that once made industrial life harder is being recast as a commercial advantage. The harsh winters can help cool server halls that produce vast amounts of heat. The planned Trans-Caspian fiber cable would then link the city’s abundant power to a faster international data route. That promise is still built on coal. Thermal plants generated 74.4% of Kazakhstan’s electricity in 2025, with the country still importing nearly 1.5 billion kilowatt-hours from Russia to cover the shortfall. A 250 MW data-center complex running day and night would consume about 2.19 billion kilowatt-hours a year, roughly 1.8% of Kazakhstan’s total...

Air Travel

Cathay Flights to Bring Cargo Service to Astana and Passenger Service to Almaty

Cathay, Hong Kong’s flagship airline, plans to launch regular cargo flights to Astana in August 2026 and begin passenger services between Hong Kong and Almaty in January 2027, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Transport said. Cathay is based at Hong Kong International Airport and is among the world’s leading passenger and cargo airlines. The carrier also holds a five-star rating from Skytrax, the British aviation consultancy that evaluates service quality at airlines and airports worldwide. The airline’s plans to enter the Kazakhstan's market were discussed during a meeting between Saltanat Tompiyeva, chair of Kazakhstan’s Civil Aviation Committee, and Oliver Coelho, Cathay’s regional manager for the Middle East. According to the ministry, Cathay intends to begin regular cargo flights to Astana on August 1, operating up to five services a week with Boeing 747 aircraft. The airline also plans to launch scheduled passenger flights between Hong Kong and Almaty from January 2027. The route is expected to operate three times a week using Airbus A330 aircraft. Tompiyeva said Kazakhstan was ready to provide the necessary support for both projects. The two sides agreed to continue work on the regulatory and operational procedures required to launch the services and to coordinate closely on developing air links between Kazakhstan and Hong Kong. Kazakhstan’s authorities expect the new routes to support trade and tourism. They also expect the services to improve logistics and deepen economic ties with Hong Kong. Cathay currently operates around 237 aircraft and serves more than 100 passenger destinations. Its cargo subsidiary, Cathay Cargo, operates scheduled freight services to 41 destinations and transports more than 1.67 million tons of cargo annually, placing it among the world’s largest air-freight operators. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan’s Transport Minister Nurlan Sauranbayev said in May that direct flights between Astana and Tokyo were expected to begin in the fourth quarter of 2026, while a direct Astana-New York service could be launched in the second quarter of 2027. In early July, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev also called for construction of a second airport in Astana to begin as soon as possible amid rising passenger traffic and intensifying competition between Central Asia’s transport and logistics hubs.

Digital Assets

Kazakhstan to Establish Committee to Regulate Digital Asset Market

Kazakhstan will establish a dedicated committee under the National Bank to oversee the development, regulation, and supervision of the country’s digital asset market, and expand oversight of the national payments system, National Bank Governor Timur Suleimenov has announced. The decision follows President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s signing last week of the decree “On Measures to Stimulate and Develop the Digital Assets Industry in the Republic of Kazakhstan”. Developed jointly by the Ministry of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development and the National Bank, the decree lays the groundwork for a regulated digital asset market while expanding the use of innovative financial technologies. Among its key provisions, the decree authorizes the use of digital assets and stablecoins for cross-border settlements, opening new channels for Kazakhstan’s exporters and importers. It also introduces a voluntary disclosure mechanism allowing digital assets currently held on unregulated foreign platforms to be transferred into Kazakhstan’s regulated ecosystem. In addition, individuals will be exempt from personal income tax on profits generated through digital asset transactions conducted on platforms licensed in Kazakhstan, creating further incentives for investors to use the country’s regulated infrastructure. The authorities are also expanding the practical use of cryptocurrencies in everyday commerce. Alatau City Bank has announced the launch of its Crypto Pay service, enabling customers to pay for goods and services using cryptocurrency through QR code payments at point-of-sale terminals. According to Suleimenov, cryptocurrency payments are already accepted at approximately 5,000 retail outlets in Astana and Almaty, with plans to expand the network nationwide. “In the future, this functionality will not be limited to Alatau City Bank. Other banks are developing similar solutions, which will eventually become part of a unified QR payment system. That system will integrate not only banks but also payment organizations and cryptocurrency wallets,” Suleimenov said. As Kazakhstan’s digital asset market continues to expand, the government believes a specialized regulator has become necessary. The new committee will have two principal responsibilities: providing oversight of and ensuring transparency in the national payments market, and regulating and supervising digital financial assets. “These instruments are developing extremely rapidly, and without a dedicated institution that understands them as well as the market itself, it will be difficult to effectively oversee all ongoing processes,” Suleimenov said. The National Bank is currently finalizing the committee’s organizational structure and preparing the legal framework required for its operation. According to Suleimenov, the institutional setup should be completed within the next three months, allowing the new regulator to begin operations in the second half of 2026. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan is also considering the creation of a national cryptocurrency reserve. In addition, senior National Bank officials have indicated that part of the country’s National Fund assets and foreign exchange reserves could eventually be allocated to cryptocurrency investments.

Transport Infrastructure

Can Uzbekistan Challenge Kazakhstan as Leading Central Asia Logistics Hub?

Recent developments suggest that Uzbekistan is seeking to strengthen its position in regional logistics, potentially challenging Kazakhstan’s role as Central Asia’s principal transit hub. As geopolitical tensions increase, alternative transport routes are becoming increasingly important, and Central Asia stands out as a relatively stable region. Both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are investing heavily in expanding their transport infrastructure. The key question, however, is how practical and commercially viable these new projects will prove to be. Which country will ultimately be able to offer faster, cheaper, and more reliable transport corridors? Uzbekistan’s Plans In early July, Uzbekistan presented proposals for expanding its transport and logistics infrastructure, as officials sought to make greater use of what they described as the country’s underdeveloped transit potential. Officials noted that Uzbekistan occupies a strategic position connecting East and West. The country hosts approximately 4,000 kilometers (2,485 miles) of international transit corridors and has a railway network stretching 4,700 kilometers (2,920 miles). Modern logistics centers and “dry ports” are being developed in Tashkent, Navoi, and Namangan. Navoi Airport already serves as an important cargo hub on Eurasian air routes. Authorities believe that construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, together with the proposed Trans-Afghan Railway, could further strengthen Uzbekistan’s position within both regional and international transport networks. Project planners argue that, once completed, these corridors will make Uzbekistan a key segment of the shortest overland route between the Pacific Ocean and Europe. They estimate that cargo transit times could be reduced to eight days, roughly three times faster than many traditional routes. That said, the statement provided no methodology or precise endpoints for the estimate; existing China-Europe rail services generally take considerably longer. Officials also say access to Pakistan’s ports of Karachi and Gwadar would provide Uzbekistan with a gateway to the Indian Ocean and a shorter route to South Asian markets with a combined population of around 2 billion people. Gwadar is not yet connected to Pakistan’s main railway network, however, meaning that substantial additional infrastructure would be required. Significant Shortcomings Uzbek officials estimate that annual trade between China and Europe amounts to approximately $800 billion, while cargo volumes total between 120 million and 150 million metric tons each year. The government estimates that attracting an additional 15-20 million tons of international transit cargo annually could generate $400-600 million in revenue, draw around $3 billion into logistics facilities, and create approximately 50,000 permanent jobs. The presidential administration also said this could add 1.5-2 percentage points to annual economic growth, given that Uzbekistan currently captures only 1-2% of China-Europe freight – it did not explain how either figure was calculated. Although transit cargo volumes reached 15.3 million tons in 2025, an increase of 54% compared with 2021, officials believe the country’s existing infrastructure could support significantly higher volumes. At present, however, many border crossings lack sufficient capacity to process international freight efficiently. Uzbekistan currently operates 27 logistics centers that meet international standards, with a combined handling capacity of 27.2 million tons. Yet only one of them qualifies as a...