Kazakhstan Business & Economy - The Times Of Central Asia

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Middle Corridor

Middle Corridor Freight Grows, but Eastbound Cargo Lags

Container traffic is growing along the Middle Corridor from China and Central Asia toward Europe, but the route is far less busy in the opposite direction. In the first eight months of 2026, about 80% of container traffic moved westward and only 20% eastward. Operators are now looking for goods in Europe and Türkiye that can be shipped back across the Caspian Sea and Kazakhstan toward Central Asia and China. Container traffic totaled 53,574 TEU along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, also known as the Middle Corridor, in January–August. One TEU is equivalent to a standard 20-foot container. During the same period last year, the figure was 48,326 TEU, meaning traffic increased by 11%. But the flows were highly uneven. According to ADY Express, 42,642 TEU moved from east to west, compared with just 10,932 TEU in the opposite direction – a ratio of almost four to one. Interest in the route increased sharply after 2022, when companies began looking for additional ways to move goods between China and Europe without transiting Russia. Over the past several years, participants in the Middle Corridor have focused on increasing shipments from China. New train services have been introduced, while countries along the route have invested in railways, terminals, and Caspian ports. Chinese freight has grown, but there is still not enough cargo for the return journey. For transport operators, the issue comes down to finances. Once containers reach Europe, they need to be used again or repositioned. If there is cargo for the return journey, the equipment generates revenue in both directions. Without it, operators can face the cost of moving empty equipment. The 80%-to-20% split, however, does not establish how many containers actually make the return journey without cargo. Railway companies themselves are now acknowledging the shortage of eastbound cargo. “For this, backhaul freight is necessary,” Emil Mammadov, Adviser to the Chairman of Azerbaijan Railways, said at the Black Sea and Caspian Freight Forum 2026 in Baku. According to Mammadov, attracting cargo from Europe would help increase freight volumes, optimize transportation costs, and allow at least some containers to be returned to their countries of origin. Until now, the route has been promoted more actively in China, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Türkiye. European companies have received less attention. Railway operators are now looking for customers at the western end of the corridor as well. A shipment from Türkiye showed what such a return journey could look like. In May, KTZ Express and Pasifik Eurasia dispatched a train from Izmir to China carrying household refrigerators. Fifty 40-foot containers crossed the Caspian Sea, traveled through Kazakhstan, and continued into China via the Altynkol border station. For now, such shipments remain limited. The Chinese side continues to push for more westbound traffic. On September 9, Azerbaijan Railways held talks with Shanghai International Port Group and Lianyungang Port on expanding shipments of Chinese goods through Kazakhstan, across the Caspian, and through Azerbaijan toward Europe. ADY Express also reported that 265 container block trains operated along...

Kazakhstan Oil Exports

Kazakhstan Seeks Oil Export Alternatives After Latest CPC Disruption

A drone incident near the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal outside Novorossiysk briefly halted oil loading on September 8, again highlighting Kazakhstan’s dependence on its main export route through Russia. Astana is seeking to expand alternatives, but the difference in volumes remains enormous. According to Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry, the country exported 64.8 million tons of oil through CPC in 2025. The ministry puts shipments via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline at 1.2 million tons annually. Azerbaijan has said it is ready to receive up to 2.2 million tons of Kazakh oil through BTC annually, although KazMunayGas expects shipments of up to 1.6 million tons in 2026. Even this higher figure would be only around 3% of the volume Kazakhstan exported through CPC last year. The Caspian route allows oil from Kazakhstan to bypass Russian territory entirely. Crude is shipped to the port of Aktau, carried by tanker across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan, and then transported through the BTC pipeline via Georgia to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. However, the logistics are more complicated than direct pipeline transportation. A substantial increase in exports could require additional tanker capacity and improvements to transport infrastructure on both sides of the Caspian. Kazakhstan also exports oil eastward to China. Another alternative is the Atyrau-Samara pipeline, although it feeds crude into Russia’s pipeline system and does not reduce reliance on Russian transit. The latest incident temporarily stopped loading at two single-point moorings, the offshore facilities used to load crude onto tankers. Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry said inspections of the equipment and vessels found no issues affecting continued loading. It reported no environmental impact. Loading resumed, and CPC imposed no restrictions on accepting crude from Kazakh shippers. CPC operations had already been interrupted several times in 2026 following attacks in the terminal area. The disruptions have added up. Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov estimated that incidents affecting CPC in January and July had caused about 3.5 million tons of lost production. He said Kazakhstan would have to lower its 2026 oil production forecast from 98 million tons to around 96 million tons. The problem for Astana is the scale of its dependence. CPC connects Kazakhstan’s largest oilfields to the Black Sea and accounted for approximately 82% of the country’s 78.7 million tons of oil exports in 2025. Even doubling or tripling shipments across the Caspian would leave CPC dominant. Kazakhstan can gradually spread its exports across several routes, but the alternatives cannot currently replace its main export channel. For more on our special coverage, click here.

Astana Finance Days 2026

Astana Finance Days: From BlackRock to Mining and Data Centers

In a trading hall in Astana, BlackRock was explaining why investors have become more cautious. A few floors away, geologists were pitching 23 mining projects, while financiers debated how many megawatts the next wave of artificial intelligence will require. That was how the first day of Astana Finance Days unfolded, as Kazakhstan brought together financial groups managing more than $26 trillion in assets – and sought to show them where that money could be put to work in Central Asia. The ninth Astana Finance Days is taking place on September 9–10 at the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC), Kazakhstan’s special financial jurisdiction with its own regulator and a court system based on English common law principles. According to the organizers, around 8,000 participants from 90 countries registered for the forum. Institutions represented include BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Capital Group, Brookfield, Rothschild & Co., Hong Kong Investment Corporation, and IFC Asset Management Company. The stated $26 trillion refers to the combined assets under management of participating firms worldwide – not investment pledged to Kazakhstan. More concrete signals emerged on the sidelines. Meshal Jaber AlFaras, Janus Henderson Investors’ head of the Middle East, Africa, and Central Asia, said the investment group is considering direct investments in Kazakhstan and plans to expand its presence in the country. Janus Henderson manages around $500 billion in assets. AlFaras did not disclose potential projects or investment amounts. A New Price for Risk One of the first day’s most prominent discussions took place at the Astana International Exchange (AIX), the AIFC’s stock exchange. Ben Powell, Chief Investment Strategist for the Asia-Pacific region at the BlackRock Investment Institute, spoke about how geopolitics is reshaping capital flows. “Today, we are in a structurally new regime – moving into a more complicated world where geopolitical fragmentation is intensifying, alliances are breaking down, and international relationships are changing. Of course, this affects investors. They need to completely rethink their approaches to investing,” Powell said. Higher inflation and interest rates, he continued, are changing attitudes toward risk. For smaller emerging markets, that means greater scrutiny of currency stability, regulation, and liquidity. A few halls away, that global discussion was already turning into pitches for specific mineral projects. From the Geological Map to the Investor Fifteen companies brought 23 mining projects to Astana Finance Days. Most are still at the exploration stage. In the industry, such companies are known as juniors. They search for mineral deposits and try to demonstrate that the resources they discover can eventually be mined profitably. For an ordinary bank, the risk is high: a promising area on a geological map does not yet guarantee a working mine. At the forum, companies briefly pitched their projects before moving into individual negotiations. More than ten Kazakh and international investors and strategic partners attended the pitch session. The Junior Mining Platform, launched this spring, is intended to turn this search for capital into a permanent mechanism. Private investors take on early geological risk; as reserves are confirmed and technical uncertainty declines, larger...

Oil and Gas

Kazakhstan Pauses Collection of $5 Billion Fine from Kashagan Operator

Kazakhstan has suspended enforcement proceedings to collect about $5 billion from North Caspian Operating Company (NCOC), the operator of the Kashagan oil field. The fine itself remains in force. The pause followed a new challenge by the company in a Kazakh court, and the Justice Ministry has said it intends to resume collection efforts. Enforcement proceedings involving 2.3 trillion tenge ($5.06 billion) were suspended on September 7. NCOC challenged the actions of a state enforcement officer, after which the Specialized Interdistrict Administrative Court of Atyrau Region requested the case materials. While those materials are before the court, enforcement proceedings must be suspended. Before the suspension, authorities had stepped up collection efforts. The deadline for voluntary payment expired on July 20, after which the authorities began enforcement proceedings. On July 21, NCOC’s property and vehicles were frozen. The company’s managing director, Giancarlo Ruiu, was also warned of possible administrative and criminal liability for failure to comply with the court ruling. At issue is sulfur produced as a byproduct of processing oil and gas at Kashagan. Kazakhstan’s environmental authorities accused NCOC of storing volumes exceeding the limits set by its environmental permit. The consortium rejects both the allegations and the fine. Although the authorities’ original order was overturned over procedural violations, environmental regulators subsequently issued a new one. The reissued penalty was upheld by Kazakh courts, including the Atyrau Regional Court in June 2026, allowing the authorities to move toward enforcement. The dispute also has an international legal dimension. NCOC’s foreign shareholders have challenged the penalty through international treaty arbitration. Separately, NCOC said in July that a tribunal applying the rules of the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL) had issued an interim order barring Kazakhstan from enforcing the fine while those proceedings were pending. Kazakh authorities rejected NCOC’s interpretation of the order, arguing that the commercial arbitration tribunal could not prevent the state from enforcing its environmental laws and domestic court judgments. The Justice Ministry has made clear that the current suspension stems from NCOC’s challenge to the enforcement officer in a Kazakh administrative court, rather than from the UNCITRAL order. Kashagan is one of Kazakhstan’s largest oil fields and one of the world’s biggest oil discoveries of recent decades. Recoverable reserves are estimated at 9 billion to 13 billion barrels. The field produced 18.2 million tons of oil in 2025. The project is backed by some of the world’s largest oil companies. KazMunayGas holds 16.88%, while Eni, ExxonMobil, Shell, and TotalEnergies each hold about 16.81%. CNPC owns 8.33% and Japan’s Inpex 7.56%. For Kazakhstan, Kashagan is one of its main sources of oil production and export revenue. For the international companies, the dispute is also a test of the operating environment at the country’s largest oil fields. Kazakhstan accounts for around 2% of global daily oil supply, and the Kashagan case comes amid several multibillion-dollar legal disputes between Astana and international oil companies. The environmental fine is not the only dispute surrounding Kashagan. Kazakhstan has also brought claims against investors over costs...

Middle Corridor

Kazakhstan Transport Sector Needs 57,000 Specialists as Middle Corridor Expands

Kazakhstan is expanding railways and logistics capacity along routes linking China and Europe, but its transport sector has identified a need for around 57,000 specialists. Digitalization is creating demand for 31 new professions. Transport Minister Nurlan Sauranbayev announced the figures at a government meeting on September 8. Around 870,000 people currently work in the sector – nearly one in ten employed people in the country. Locomotive drivers, other drivers, engineers, technicians, logistics specialists, pilots, air traffic controllers, ship captains, and mechanics are among those in particularly high demand. The skills required are also changing. Railways need digital logistics specialists and automation experts, while the road sector needs specialists in Building Information Modeling (BIM), smart roads, and construction robot operators. In aviation, new roles include AI-assisted air traffic controllers, air traffic design specialists, and drone operators. BIM makes it possible to create a digital model of an infrastructure asset containing technical data and use it throughout design, construction, and operation. Kazakhstan’s workforce needs coincide with major investment in transport infrastructure. The country occupies the central section of the Middle Corridor, the route connecting China with Europe through Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, and the South Caucasus. Its importance has grown since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine prompted some freight flows to shift toward routes bypassing Russia. In February, the World Bank approved an $846 million guarantee designed to mobilize $1.41 billion in commercial financing for the development of Kazakhstan’s railway network along the Middle Corridor. The project includes the 322-kilometer Moyynty-Kyzylzhar railway line, which will shorten the route by 149 kilometers and relieve some of the most congested sections of the network. In January 2026, IFC, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and Standard Chartered announced up to $300 million in financing for the electrified railway bypass around Almaty. The financing announcement said the line was expected to reduce pressure on the Almaty railway junction by more than 40% and cut freight delivery times by as much as 24 hours. Working train movements had already begun in December 2025. Kazakhstan’s universities and colleges are currently training around 44,000 students in transport-related fields, more than 28,000 of them on government-funded grants. However, that figure cannot be directly compared with the sector’s need for 57,000 specialists: the students are at different stages of their education, while many jobs require professional experience. The industry is therefore also retraining its existing workforce. Kazakhstan’s national railway company, Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ), operates four regional training centers as well as laboratories and training grounds. The JOLSHY platform has been launched in the road sector to connect employers, specialists, students, and training organizations, while a separate training center is being established for the aviation industry. For the Middle Corridor, Kazakhstan’s growing demand for skilled workers could become another constraint on expansion. The faster the route between China and Europe grows, the more people will be needed to keep it running.

Astana Finance Days 2026

S&P Bolsters Kazakhstan’s Standing as Central Asia’s Financial Hub

S&P Global Ratings has improved its assessment of Kazakhstan’s banking industry as Astana Finance Days opens on September 9, lowering the industry risk score for the country’s banking system from 7 to 6 and citing stronger regulation and supervision. According to Kazakhstan’s Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market, the September 4 decision improved the industry risk component of S&P’s Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment, or BICRA. S&P also changed the trend on Kazakhstan’s separate economic risk assessment from stable to positive. S&P’s BICRA framework evaluates banking systems on a scale of 1 to 10, with lower numbers indicating lower risk. Industry risk assesses factors including banking regulation and supervision, competitive dynamics, and the stability of systemwide funding. Kazakhstan’s overall BICRA grouping remains at 7, while its industry risk score improved from 7 to 6. The industry risk comparison puts the change in perspective. S&P’s published assessments place the United States at 3, Germany at 4, and Brazil at 5. Kazakhstan’s new score of 6 places it alongside banking systems including Bahrain, Oman and Thailand in recent S&P assessments. Within Central Asia, the difference is wider. S&P has assigned Kyrgyzstan an industry-risk score of 8 and Uzbekistan a score of 9. S&P does not currently publish BICRA assessments for Tajikistan or Turkmenistan. S&P also considers Kazakhstan’s banking regulation and supervision more effective than those of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, according to the Kazakh regulator. Stronger Supervision The regulator attributed S&P’s decision to regular asset-quality reviews, risk-based supervisory assessments and measures to limit excessive bank risk-taking, particularly in retail lending. It also cited tighter capital and liquidity oversight and stress testing. The change has already affected individual institutions. The regulator reported an upgrade of the Bank Center Credit’s long-term rating to BB+, while Halyk Bank’s BBB− rating received a positive outlook, indicating the possibility of a future upgrade. The banking decision follows S&P’s August 21 sovereign upgrade from BBB− to BBB with a stable outlook. Kazakhstan remains Central Asia’s only investment-grade sovereign. In an interview with TCA, National Bank Governor Timur Suleimenov linked that improvement to a stronger monetary policy framework, banking resilience, and closer coordination with the government. Kazakhstan also has Central Asia’s most developed capital markets. Almaty’s banks, professional services and Kazakhstan Stock Exchange operate alongside the Astana International Financial Centre and its exchange, giving the country an established concentration of financial business. Capital on the Agenda The timing of S&P’s decision gives the assessment added relevance as Kazakhstan hosts Astana Finance Days. The forum’s announced program includes regulation, law and market confidence, capital market development, and financing for the real economy. Organizers expect more than 5,500 participants from over 80 countries, with representatives of BlackRock, Goldman Sachs and Brookfield among the confirmed speakers. In an August 27 interview with TCA, Zhanbolat Kakishev, chief product officer at the AIFC Authority, said a cumulative $26.3 billion in investment had been attracted to Kazakhstan through the center’s ecosystem, which included more than 6,000 registered companies from 90 countries....