Kazakhstan Business & Economy - The Times Of Central Asia

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Currency

Kazakh Tenge Rises as Foreign Investors Buy Government Debt

Kazakhstan’s tenge has strengthened by 9.7% against the dollar since the start of 2026, making it the best-performing currency across Europe and Asia, according to the Financial Times. The newspaper points to an influx of foreign capital into Kazakhstan’s government debt: nonresident holdings of tenge-denominated bonds have risen from roughly $2 billion to $5 billion over the past year. The appreciation has come despite serious disruptions to Kazakhstan’s oil exports through Russia. Kazakh data show that foreign interest in government securities did not begin this summer. In July alone, nonresidents increased their holdings by 92.2 billion tenge, about $195 million, to 2.6 trillion tenge, or roughly $5.5 billion. Since the start of the year, their portfolio has grown by 32.9%, while their share of the market has risen from 6.2% to 7.2%. The Association of Financiers of Kazakhstan (AFK) attributes the interest to high real interest rates and relative macroeconomic stability. Why Foreign Investors Are Buying Kazakh Debt During 2025, nonresident holdings of Kazakh government securities rose from roughly 1.1 trillion tenge, about $2.3 billion, to 2 trillion tenge, about $4.2 billion. Growth continued this year. In June alone, foreign investors added 185.1 billion tenge, about $390 million, bringing their total holdings to 2.5 trillion tenge, roughly $5.3 billion. Their share of the market increased from 6.2% to 6.9% by then. The reason for the interest is fairly straightforward: Kazakhstan offers high yields while maintaining an investment-grade credit rating. The base rate remained at 18% through the spring. The National Bank cut it to 17% in June and announced a further cut to 16.75% on July 24. Annual inflation, meanwhile, declined for a ninth consecutive month and stood at 10.3% in June. For foreign investors, the combination of high interest rates and a strengthening tenge creates an opportunity to earn both on bond yields and currency appreciation. For the tenge itself, the same transaction works in reverse: before buying a Kazakh security, a foreign investor has to acquire the national currency. In June, AFK analysts cited nonresident transactions among the factors supporting the tenge, alongside foreign-currency sales by exporters, state-controlled companies, and the National Bank. Market Access Is Becoming Easier High yields alone do not explain the growing interest. Kazakhstan is also trying to make its domestic debt market easier for international investors to access. A primary dealer system has been operating since May 4. Five banks were granted primary dealer status and are expected to support the government securities market, including buying and selling bonds in the secondary market. In April, the National Bank announced that Euroclear had begun a project to make Kazakhstan’s government bonds eligible for settlement through its international system. A direct link with the local market infrastructure is planned for 2027. For foreign investors, this would make it possible to trade Kazakh government debt through a familiar global settlement system, alongside the existing Clearstream channel. Kazakhstan is also seeking eventual inclusion of its tenge-denominated government bonds in JPMorgan’s GBI-EM, one of the main international indexes for emerging-market government...

Oil Exports

Push for Kazakhstan Oil Exports Diversification as CPC Disruptions Expose Capacity Gap

Kazakhstan has spent years looking for more ways to export its oil without relying so heavily on Russia. This summer has shown how difficult that remains. Shipments to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline have been suspended since May, disruptions on the Black Sea in July forced Tengiz to more than halve production, and now Russia is rerouting Kazakh crude from Ust-Luga to Novorossiysk to free Baltic capacity for its own oil. The shift comes as exports from Russia’s western ports ran 15% below plan in the first half of August, with Novorossiysk shipments of Russian Urals and Kazakh KEBCO falling to around 400,000 barrels per day. At least two cargoes of Kazakhstan’s KEBCO crude scheduled for loading at Ust-Luga in late August will instead be shipped through the Black Sea. No KEBCO loadings are currently planned at the Baltic port in September. The move will free up about 100,000 barrels per day of export capacity at Ust-Luga for Russian crude. Kazakh producers support the arrangement because shipments through Novorossiysk are currently more profitable. From a commercial standpoint, the decision is understandable. But Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk give Kazakhstan access to two different seas while remaining Russian ports. And Novorossiysk, where the KEBCO cargoes are now being redirected, had itself suspended crude loadings only a few days earlier. On August 14, loadings at the Sheskharis terminal, Novorossiysk port’s main oil-export facility, were halted following a drone attack. The facility handles around 700,000 barrels per day and loads Russian Urals and Siberian Light as well as Kazakhstan’s KEBCO. Operations resumed on August 16, and one of the first tankers to load was carrying Kazakh crude. Another 80,000-ton KEBCO cargo was due to begin loading on August 18. Kazakhstan’s far larger vulnerability, however, is the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. Its marine terminal near Novorossiysk is separate from Sheskharis. In 2025, the country exported 78.7 million metric tons of oil, of which 64.8 million tons were shipped through CPC. Volumes through the pipeline rose by 18% compared with 2024, largely as production increased following the Tengiz expansion. The July disruptions showed how quickly problems on that route can affect production inside Kazakhstan. After drone attacks near the CPC terminal forced restrictions on loadings, Kazakhstan’s oil and gas condensate production fell by about 21% by July 22 to roughly 1.63 million barrels per day, from a July average of 2.07 million barrels per day. Tengiz output dropped from a July average of around 925,000 barrels per day to about 406,000. A few days later, the situation deteriorated further. On July 26, Kazakhstan produced around 1 million barrels per day of oil and gas condensate, down from an average of 2.16 million barrels per day in June. Tengiz, Kashagan, and Karachaganak all had to reduce production. On July 27, CPC resumed loadings after a week-long suspension. CPC accounts for more than 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports, so replacing it quickly with other routes is impossible. The pipeline typically carries around 1.5 million to 1.7 million barrels per day....

AI Education

Kazakhstan Rolls Out AI Education From School to University

In the 2026-27 academic year, Kazakhstan’s first artificial intelligence university plans to enroll 600 students and trainees. AI use is also being expanded in schools, with a separate pilot planned for ten small rural schools. Kazakhstan is therefore trying to build its AI talent pipeline from both ends of the education system. Science and Higher Education Minister Sayasat Nurbek announced the first intake at Qazaq AI Research University (QAIRU) during a government meeting. Nurbek said 400 students would be admitted to bachelor’s programs, including 308 on state grants, while another 100 would join master’s programs. “In addition, the Samruk-Kazyna sovereign wealth fund will send 100 of its employees to study under the MBA AI+X program,” he said. QAIRU is located in Astana on the former EXPO 2017 site, alongside Astana Hub and the Alem.ai cluster. The university says it intends to train engineers capable of building their own AI systems rather than simply using existing AI services. Its bachelor’s program lasts three years and is taught entirely in English. Education is based on the AI+X model, combining artificial intelligence with specific disciplines and industries, including healthcare and energy. The university was first proposed while the project was still being developed. Other parts of higher education are also changing. According to Nurbek, Unified National Testing (UNT) certificates are already available through eGov, and AI proctoring is in use. The National Testing Center has also launched AI-Talapker, a chatbot that answers questions about the UNT and university admissions. Key information on students and graduates is also being consolidated on the Unified Higher Education Platform. “The next stage is the introduction of artificial intelligence-based solutions into the educational process,” Nurbek said. He said these would be used for admissions and to support personalized learning and career guidance. In schools, students will encounter AI earlier in their education. Education Minister Zhuldyz Suleimenova told the same government meeting that artificial intelligence technologies will become part of the educational process in the new academic year. “One of the features of the new academic year will be the use and study of artificial intelligence technologies in schools,” Suleimenova said. AI content will be added to the existing digital literacy and computer science curricula. Separately, the government has decided to test AI tools in rural schools, where opportunities to teach individual subjects are often more limited than in large cities. The pilot will begin on September 1 in ten small schools in the Pavlodar and Kyzylorda regions, with instruction in Kazakh and Russian. AI solutions will be tested in fourth-grade classes covering mathematics, digital literacy, the native language, and AI. The pilot will expand to 50 schools in November, and another 300 schools are scheduled to join in January 2027. The pilot phase is expected to cover 500 small rural schools. Officials have assessed internet speeds and computer availability, along with staffing capacity and schools’ readiness to introduce AI solutions. More than 350,000 teachers have already received training in the use of AI in education. For rural Kazakhstan, this part of the program...

Camel Farming

Camel Farming Expands Across Central Asia as Climate Pressures Mount

Camels are gaining renewed economic importance in Central Asia as farmers seek new markets for their milk and governments look for livestock better suited to increasingly dry conditions. In Kazakhstan, camel numbers are rising and producers are developing markets for shubat, a fermented camel milk drink, and powdered camel milk. Uzbekistan, meanwhile, has begun working with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) to develop camel husbandry in arid areas. Kazakhstan has more than 322,000 camels, according to government figures for 2026, an increase of 2.4% from the previous year. Most are raised in the vast arid lands in the west and south of the country. Camels are also an important part of Turkmenistan’s livestock sector. The herd numbered about 345,000 animals in 2020. Bactrian camels have traditionally dominated Kazakhstan’s camel herd. They can withstand sharp fluctuations between extreme heat and severe cold. Over the past two decades, Kazakhstan has also seen an increase in one-humped Arvana camels, a breed of Turkmen origin known for high milk productivity. In Turkmenistan, the Arvana is the mainstay of the industry. These camels can produce milk even when grazing on sparse desert pastures, feeding on salt-tolerant vegetation and bitter wormwood that are of little use to many other types of livestock. Milk Brings in the Money Milk offers camel farmers a product that can be sold throughout the year and increasingly processed into higher-value goods. A female Kazakh Bactrian camel can produce up to about 1,750 liters of milk annually, although yields vary considerably between breeds and farming systems. The main product on the domestic market is shubat, but larger producers have also begun processing camel milk for markets far beyond the communities where it is produced. One of the most prominent examples is Daulet-Beket LLP in the Almaty region. When a camel-milk processing plant opened there in 2021, the farm had around 5,000 camels and was producing up to five tons of shubat a day. The plant was designed to produce as much as 30 tons of powdered camel milk a month, with products being shipped to Russia and China. Smaller farms show how strong local demand can also sustain the industry. The Suleymanov family in the Almaty region started with two camels. By the time they were profiled in 2021, their herd had grown to around 70 animals. Sixteen were being milked each day, producing 52 to 53 liters. The family said customers frequently bought their shubat before it even reached Almaty. Camel Farming in Turkmenistan Turkmen state media has also highlighted privately run camel farms. A 2024 report said farmer Serdarkuli Berdyliev in Ahal province kept 320 camels, including 140 females. Average milk yields were around six liters a day. Information about private agriculture in Turkmenistan largely comes through tightly controlled state media. Camel milk production continues to feature in official coverage alongside the country’s long-established herding traditions. Camel wool remains a marketable product, although its market is much smaller than that for milk. In Turkmenistan, it...

Astana Finance Days 2026

Astana Finance Days 2026 to Draw Global Investors to Kazakhstan

Astana will host the ninth Astana Finance Days on September 9–10. This year, organizers expect more than 5,500 participants from over 80 countries, and the geography of the guests reflects the markets Kazakhstan has increasingly looked to for capital: the United States and Europe, China and Hong Kong, the Gulf states, and its Central Asian neighbors. The announced speakers include representatives of BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Brookfield, FTSE Russell, Bloomberg, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and China International Capital Corporation. Representatives of Binance, Mastercard, and Telegram/TON are also expected. Kazakhstan will be represented by National Bank Governor Timur Suleimenov, Minister of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development Zhaslan Madiyev, Freedom Holding Corp. CEO Timur Turlov, and others. This year’s agenda reflects the region’s continuing search for new sources of financing: capital markets, investment products, financing for the real economy, regulation, financial technology, and cross-border investment. The forum will be held under the theme “Delivering Impact. Capital in Action.” Astana Finance Days was launched in 2018 alongside the establishment of the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC). The first forum was closely linked to the creation of Kazakhstan’s new financial hub, but the range of participants has expanded considerably over the past eight years. Last year, AFD attracted more than 5,500 participants from 82 countries. They included representatives of investment firms managing approximately $1.5 trillion in combined assets. Over two days, the forum hosted 40 events featuring 160 speakers, while the Astana International Exchange announced four listings and seven agreements were signed. China and Hong Kong stand out in the 2026 guest list. Representatives of the Hong Kong Investment Corporation, the Hong Kong and Shanghai Stock Exchange, and CICC are expected in Astana. BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and Brookfield are also represented. Kazakhstan has increasingly sought investment from the West, China, and the Middle East, so the range of institutions represented may be more significant than the overall attendance figure. There is another reason AFD goes beyond a conventional financial conference. The AIFC was established as a separate jurisdiction with its own court, regulator, and legal framework based on the principles of English common law. Kazakhstan designed it to make it easier for foreign businesses to enter the local market and raise capital. Thousands of companies from dozens of countries are now registered with the AIFC, and Astana Finance Days has effectively become an annual meeting point between businesses operating within this system and potential investors and new partners. Investment will not be the only subject under discussion in September. The program includes digital asset regulation, new financial technologies, capital markets, and corporate financing. A separate AFD Exhibition will bring together banks, asset managers, investment firms, and fintech projects. The Times of Central Asia is a media partner of Astana Finance Days 2026. Special coverage coming soon.

Energy

Kazakhstan Mini-Refineries Eye Russia After Rail Export Restriction Lifted

Kazakhstan has lifted a railway export restriction on petroleum products from mini-refineries. For small plants, many of which operate well below capacity, the decision restores an opportunity to sell their products outside the country. Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ), the national railway company, revoked the restriction following an August 7 decision by the country’s Chief Transport Prosecutor’s Office. The timing is notable: after a series of strikes on its refineries, Russia is facing fuel shortages and has already begun importing gasoline from abroad, including Kazakhstan. Other restrictions on fuel exports from Kazakhstan remain in force, so the KTZ decision does not fully reopen gasoline and diesel exports. Some fuels remain subject to separate bans, and exports to Russia are treated differently from shipments outside the Eurasian Economic Union. What Mini-Refineries Produce The number of mini-refineries actually operating in Kazakhstan depends on how such facilities are defined. Official documents have referred to roughly 30 small petroleum-product producers. More recent industry data provide a clearer picture: more than 30 mini-refineries are registered, with declared crude-processing capacity of about 4.5 million metric tons a year. Of these, 22 are considered operational, with a combined capacity of about 2 million tons. Actual processing is considerably lower, having increased from roughly 400,000 to 800,000 tons annually over the past five years. These are not smaller versions of Kazakhstan’s major refineries in Atyrau, Pavlodar, and Shymkent. Most mini-refineries lack equipment for deep refining, so their output is simpler. Their main products include fuel oil, heating and marine fuels, naphtha, and other distillates. In 2023, mini-refineries processed 895,000 tons of feedstock and produced 346,000 tons of fuel oil, 145,000 tons of diesel fuel, and 171,000 tons of bitumen. Much of this output was not intended for Kazakhstan’s motorists. Mini-refineries produce semi-finished products, including straight-run fuel oil with a relatively high share of light fractions that can be processed further. Their opportunities on the domestic market are also limited by product quality: Kazakhstan has required K4 and K5 motor-fuel standards since 2018, while official assessments say mini-refineries generally lack the equipment to produce fuel above the K3 standard. Restoring export opportunities could therefore have a tangible economic effect for these businesses. The plants have spare capacity but insufficient domestic demand for much of their current product range. Rail exports once again give them a way to look for buyers outside Kazakhstan. And that inevitably raises the question of Russia. Russia Is Looking Abroad for Fuel There is no direct evidence that KTZ lifted the restriction specifically because of the Russian market. Neither the Kazakh authorities nor the railway company has made such a connection. But the decision comes at a convenient time for potential Russian buyers. Ukrainian drone strikes and unplanned refinery outages have reduced Russian gasoline production and contributed to domestic shortages. Moscow has responded by restricting fuel exports and increasing imports from abroad. Russia has already turned to several suppliers. In July, Belarus shipped a record 212,000 tons of gasoline to Russia, while Moscow has also begun...