Kazakhstan Business & Economy - The Times Of Central Asia

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Labor Market

AI in Kazakhstan to Affect Four Million Jobs in Next Decade, Says Labor Ministry

Around half of all professions in Kazakhstan are expected to change under the impact of AI over the next decade, with some jobs declining and others disappearing entirely, lawmakers and government officials have said. Daniya Yespayeva, Deputy Chair of the lower house of parliament, the Mazhilis, citing data from the Ministry of Labor, stated that by 2035, transformations will affect 562 jobs, about 44% of the labor market, equivalent to roughly 4 million workers. According to her, employment in 46 professions, covering around 362,000 people (about 4% of the labor market), is expected to decline, while 14 professions, employing approximately 49,000 people, may disappear completely. Yespayeva did not specify which professions are at greatest risk. However, Minister of Science and Higher Education Sayasat Nurbek noted that couriers and taxi drivers could be among the first affected. He said that around 700,000 people in Kazakhstan currently work in these sectors through platforms such as Glovo, Yandex, and Wolt. “These are temporary forms of employment. As early as this year, several Kazakh companies are launching autopilot technologies in both taxi services and delivery, so within a few years, couriers and taxi drivers may no longer be needed,” Nurbek said, urging citizens to focus on more sustainable career paths. Earlier reports indicated that a pilot drone delivery project could be launched in Almaty, while driverless taxis are planned for introduction in Astana. Askhat Aimagambetov, a Mazhilis deputy, also warned about risks facing several popular academic fields. According to him, in 2025, the highest competition for university admissions was in programs such as Translation Studies, International Relations, and Law, fields that, in his view, could be among those most affected by automation. Aimagambetov stressed the need to revise the allocation of state-funded educational grants to avoid encouraging training in professions at high risk of decline. He also noted that employment among young developers aged 22-25 declined by nearly 20% over the past year, despite significant investment in IT education. “We are training an army of coders at a time when AI is already writing code itself. It is no longer enough to train ‘coders of yesterday,’” he said. Nurbek agreed with this assessment, pointing to a shortage of specialists in eight key sectors, including advanced manufacturing, digital technologies, clean energy, finance, life sciences, defense, creative industries, and professional services. According to him, part of the gap is being addressed through private-sector involvement. Kazakhstan has established 75 joint laboratories across 19 universities in partnership with companies such as Amazon Web Services, Cisco, Huawei, Schneider Electric, and Honeywell, as well as Eurasian Resources Group, Freedom Holding, and KEGOC. More than 7,500 students are currently studying in these laboratories across 179 disciplines. Business investment in these initiatives has totaled around $5.2 million, although the minister noted that such efforts remain limited in scope. “If this gap is not addressed, the education system will continue to train specialists for yesterday’s economy,” Nurbek said, emphasizing that aligning education with economic needs has become a matter of national security.

Middle Corridor

Middle Corridor Countries Approve 2026 Plan, Focus on Digitalization and Container Growth

On April 24, Astana hosted a meeting of the Board and General Assembly of the international association “Trans-Caspian International Transport Route.” The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also known as the Middle Corridor, is a multimodal transport corridor linking China and Europe through Central Asia and the South Caucasus, offering an alternative to routes that pass through Russia. The meetings were attended by representatives of TITR member countries, Kazakhstan, China, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey, as well as participants from several European countries, including Ukraine, Bulgaria, and Romania, and international partners such as Singapore. The participating countries approved a detailed work plan for 2026, with a key focus on the digitalization of transport processes. Participants agreed to implement electronic document management using digital signatures and to establish direct data exchange between customs authorities and other stakeholders involved in cargo transportation. According to Kazakhstan's national rail company, Kazakhstan Temir Zholy (KTZ), these measures are expected to reduce transit times and improve transparency along the route. The plan also envisages an increase in container traffic, including the transit of 600 container trains from China through Kazakhstan this year. Coordination between ports and terminals on the Caspian Sea will also be strengthened. Overall, the plan is aimed at reinforcing the TITR as a key transit corridor between Asia and Europe. In the first quarter of 2026, Kazakhstan recorded a significant increase in container train traffic along the TITR, underscoring the country’s growing role in Eurasian logistics. A total of 125 container trains transited through Kazakhstan via the corridor, marking a 34.4% increase compared to the same period in 2025. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, freight volumes transported along the Middle Corridor through Kazakhstan have grown more than fivefold over the past seven years, increasing from 0.8 million tonnes to 4.5 million tonnes annually.

Middle Corridor

Kazakhstan Looks to Armenia for a Future Middle Corridor Branch

Kazakhstan’s deepening engagement with Armenia has made TRIPP, part of the Armenia–Azerbaijan peace formula, a practical question for the Middle Corridor. The Armenia–U.S. implementation framework published in January presents the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) as a project for unimpeded, multimodal transit connectivity on Armenian territory. The means for its realization remain under discussion. TRIPP has thus become relevant to Kazakhstan, even though Astana is not a direct party to the prospective Armenia–Azerbaijan settlement. Recent Kazakhstani diplomacy with Baku and Tbilisi has confirmed that the existing Azerbaijan–Georgia route remains the operative western channel of the Middle Corridor. A route through Armenia would not replace the Azerbaijan–Georgia line; it would widen the Middle Corridor’s western options. If constructed, it would link the main body of Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan and open new transit opportunities from Central Asia and the Caspian to Europe. Astana Brings Yerevan into the Route System Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan visited Astana in November 2025. His talks with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev emphasized economic sectors, including trade, infrastructure, transport, agriculture, and air transport, together with humanitarian sectors such as education and culture. The official Armenian account also recorded the leaders’ interest in unblocking regional communications, importing wheat from Kazakhstan to Armenia by rail, and bringing TRIPP to life. Tokayev described the first shipment of Kazakhstani wheat reaching Armenia through Azerbaijan as having both political and economic significance. The cargo moved along existing lines, through Russia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. Astana’s April 2026 Regional Ecological Summit showed the same regional widening from another angle: it brought Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia into a forum that connected environmental pressure with economic security and regional cooperation. The Kazakhstan–Armenia agenda has since become more specific. Foreign Minister Yermek Kosherbayev visited Yerevan as part of an official delegation earlier this month. Kosherbayev’s presence gave the visit added weight, bringing recent cabinet experience and a record on politically sensitive regional issues rather than merely protocol standing. His talks with Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan on April 8 extended the discussion to a broader institutional basis, including the bilateral Intergovernmental Commission and the Kazakhstan–Armenia Business Council. The two parties agreed that transit and logistics interconnectivity create new opportunities for market integration between Central Asia and the South Caucasus. The talks did more than raise the bilateral profile. They brought Armenia closer to the network already carrying Kazakhstan’s westbound trade. Regional connectivity received more detailed treatment on April 9, when Kosherbayev met with Pashinyan to discuss transport, transit, and trade within the 2026–2030 Roadmap for Trade and Economic Cooperation. Kosherbayev also reaffirmed Kazakhstan’s interest in long-term agricultural exports, especially grain and meat, and informed the Armenian side about measures to establish regular direct air connections. These meetings showed Astana and Yerevan moving toward the same practical premise: Armenia may become part of the wider route system. TRIPP Becomes a Middle Corridor Question Azerbaijan has completed infrastructure up to the Armenian border, but TRIPP has not yet begun construction through Armenia itself. It remains tied to the Armenia–Azerbaijan...

Energy Cooperation

Kazakhstan Plans More Oil, Gas Cooperation with Uzbekistan, Minister Says

Kazakhstan is looking to deepen energy cooperation with Uzbekistan, with several joint projects already moving into the implementation stage, Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said on the sidelines of the RES 2026 regional environmental summit in Astana, according to BAQ.KZ. “Exchange of experience and mutual assistance help us solve practical tasks,” Akkenzhenov said. “We are actively cooperating with our partners not only in the energy sector, but across all areas of the economy.” The minister noted that discussions with Uzbekistan cover a number of large-scale initiatives, particularly in petrochemicals and oil refining. “We have many joint projects with Uzbekistan. A recent presidential visit included discussions on numerous initiatives, including the development of the petrochemical industry and the expansion of oil processing,” he said. Cooperation is also expanding in energy transit and supply. Akkenzhenov said the two countries are working closely on the transit of Russian gas to Uzbekistan, as well as supplies of Russian oil. “We are also considering the possibility of exporting Kazakh products, including crude oil and petroleum products, to Uzbekistan,” he added. According to him, several of these initiatives have already reached the implementation stage. “Many projects are already in practical phases. Overall, we have built very close cooperation with our Uzbek partners,” he said. Last year, Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry confirmed that a six-month ban on fuel exports remained in force, halting gasoline shipments to neighboring countries, including Uzbekistan. At the same time, international developments may affect regional supply routes. According to Reuters, Russia plans to halt the transit of Kazakh oil to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline starting May 1. The decision is expected to impact deliveries to the PCK refinery in Schwedt, a key supplier for Berlin and Brandenburg. Despite these changes, German officials have said alternative supply routes will be used and that fuel availability will not be affected.

Fuel

Kazakhstan Launches Grain-Based Fuel at Gas Stations

Gas stations in Kazakhstan have begun selling gasoline blended with bioethanol produced from grain. Fuel marketed under the BI-95 brand has been launched by the KazFoodProducts holding. It contains bioethanol derived from processed wheat, creating a full production cycle from agricultural raw materials to finished fuel. A key component of the production chain is the BioOperations facility in the North Kazakhstan Region, the country’s only deep grain-processing complex, where bioethanol is produced. The fuel is then blended and distributed to market by BioPetrolCompany. BI-95 is a gasoline blend containing between 5% and 10% bioethanol. According to the manufacturer, the fuel maintains standard performance characteristics, including octane rating, while offering improved environmental performance. Bioethanol is considered a carbon-neutral component because it is produced from renewable raw materials. Such fuels have been widely used in the European Union, the United States, and Japan for more than two decades. Kazakhstan is only beginning to adopt these technologies, although BioOperations has been exporting its products to EU and UK markets since 2022. According to the developers, the use of BI-95 does not require vehicle modifications and is compatible with existing gasoline engines. Tests have shown comparable power and torque performance to conventional fuel. The primary benefit lies in emissions reduction. According to the company, particulate matter emissions decrease by more than 70%, nitrogen oxides by 25%, and greenhouse gas emissions by 60-70% compared to AI-92 gasoline. The new fuel is already available at retail stations. According to project head Laura Bergibayeva, the launch is aimed not only at expanding the product range but also at reducing environmental impact, particularly in major cities such as Almaty, where air quality remains a pressing concern. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that scientists at Aktobe Regional University had developed a gas purification technology capable of significantly reducing dust and harmful substances in industrial emissions.

Oil and Gas

Russia to Halt Kazakh Oil Flow to Germany, Exposing Europe’s Transit Vulnerability

Russia will stop the transit of Kazakh oil to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline from May 1 according to Reuters, disrupting a route that Berlin had built up after ending direct Russian crude imports. The move affects supplies to the PCK refinery in Schwedt, a major fuel plant for Berlin and Brandenburg. Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said the change would begin because of “technical possibilities.” Germany’s economy ministry said Rosneft Germany, which remains under German trusteeship, had informed the Federal Network Agency that transit of Kazakh crude through Russian territory to PCK would be prohibited from that date. The ministry added that the Russian government had not directly notified Berlin. Germany’s economy ministry said the stoppage did not threaten fuel supply and that existing alternatives would be used. About 17% of PCK Schwedt’s current crude supply comes from Kazakh oil delivered through the Druzhba pipeline. Germany’s economy ministry said that “existing options will be utilized to ensure security of supply in Germany” and that the halt “did not put the security of supply of petroleum products in jeopardy.” [caption id="attachment_47676" align="aligncenter" width="1038"] Image: pck.de/[/caption] However, the halt still exposes Germany’s reliance on a route that runs through Russia. Schwedt can process up to 12 million metric tons of oil a year and is a major fuel supplier for Berlin and Brandenburg, so any disruption attracts close attention even if replacement volumes can be found elsewhere. Germany has already looked at alternative deliveries through Rostock and Gdansk. Since 2023, Kazakh crude has reached Germany through Russia and Belarus via the Druzhba pipeline, giving Berlin a non-Russian source of oil and expanding Astana’s role in the European market. But the route still relied on Russian transit approval. The halt comes after two years of growth. Regular deliveries of Kazakh crude to Germany began in 2023, and in October 2025, the supply arrangement was extended through the end of 2026. Kazakhstan had been planning to expand that trade further. During an April 7 meeting with Bavarian State Minister Eric Beißwenger, Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry said it aimed to raise oil exports to Germany to 2.5 million tons in 2026. Reuters reported that 2.146 million metric tons were delivered in 2025 and that 730,000 tons were supplied in the first quarter of 2026. KazTransOil has separately published its first-quarter operating results. Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov confirmed that Druzhba transit to Germany would be halted. “For May, transit through Atyrau-Samara in the direction of the Druzhba pipeline and further to the Schwedt refinery is zero,” Akkenzhenov stated. He added that the Russian side, according to unofficial information, said it lacked the technical capability to pump Kazakh oil and that this was “most likely” linked to recent strikes on Russian infrastructure. He said transit would resume once the technical issue was resolved. Kazakh crude sent to Germany through Druzhba first moves via the Uzen-Atyrau-Samara pipeline and then through Transneft’s system to the Adamova Zastava delivery point before reaching Schwedt. The oil is sold as...