Kazakhstan Featurees - The Times Of Central Asia

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Oil and Gas

Kazakhstan Ends Era of Cheap Fuel: Price Controls Set for Abolition

On January 17, the Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan published a number of draft orders on the Open NLA (normative legal acts) portal, which were to be discussed within five days. In total, the Ministry proposed the abolition of eleven orders regulating wholesale and retail prices for petroleum products, which have been under price control since 2014. In addition, it intends to change the calculation formulas and price ceilings for wholesale and retail sales of liquefied and natural gas. I have been writing about the need for price liberalization since 2018, as seen in articles such as “#Kazneft, part 2: The Bermuda Gasoline Triangle - Why Prices Will Rise” and “#Kazneft, part 4: We Rank Seventh in the World for the Cheapest Gasoline. Is It Sold at a Loss?” This is a landmark event for the Government of Kazakhstan, which has long maintained not only the lowest fuel prices in the region but some of the lowest globally. The country consistently ranks among the top ten nations with the cheapest energy resources, including fuel, natural gas, coal, and electricity. Cheap and Even Cheaper According to Global Petrol Prices, as of January 20, 2025, fuel prices per liter in dollar terms across the EAEU, CIS, and neighboring countries are as follows: (Table 1) Country RON-95 Diesel Turkmenistan 0,43 0,29 Kazakhstan 0,47 0,55 Russia 0,61 0,71 Azerbaijan 0,65 0,59 Belorussia 0,75 0,75 Kyrgyzstan 0,81 0,81 Afghanistan 0,83 0,83 Uzbekistan 0,99 0,95 Georgia 1,09 1,06 China 1,15 1,02 Ukraine 1,39 1,37 Mongolia 1,49 1,19 Kazakhstan ranks seventh globally for the affordability of RON-95 gasoline, trailing behind Angola, Egypt, Algeria, Kuwait, Turkmenistan, and Malaysia. At the same time, there are “throwaway” prices in Iran, Libya, and Venezuela, but these price indicators do not reflect the actual availability of fuel in these countries. Turkmenistan also shows relatively low fuel prices, primarily due to the use of alternative fuels, such as methane, in transportation. Kazakhstan has historically had nearly double the price gap compared to its neighboring countries, which has facilitated the shadow export of fuel despite an official ban on exporting petroleum products. A Leaky Bucket I have described Kazakhstan's domestic fuel market as a "leaky bucket"— no matter how much fuel is produced, it is constantly in short supply. In 2024, the country processed about 18 million tons of oil, with its three major refineries — Atyrau: 99% owned by the national company KazMunayGas (KMG), Shymkent: 51% owned by China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), and 49% by KMG, and Pavlodar: 100% KMG — accounting for approximately 17 million tons. Mini-refineries produced an additional one million tons. The production of petroleum products (excluding fuel oil) amounted to around 14.5 million tons. The balance of petroleum products for 2025 is as follows, million tons: (Table 2) Product Production in the Republic of Kazakhstan Import from Russia Import to production, % RON-92, RON-95, RON-98 5,0 0,29 6 % Diesel fuel 5,1 0,45 9 % Jet fuel 0,75 0,3 40 % Bitumen/tar 1,1 0,50 45 % For 2025,...

Digitalization

Kazakhstan’s Digital Exports Expand

Kazakhstan exported $471 million worth of IT services to 95 countries during the first nine months of last year, according to Zhaslan Madiyev, Minister of Digital Development, Innovation and Aerospace Industry (MDDIAI). The primary driver of export revenue in Kazakhstan's IT services market is Astana Hub, the largest international technology park for IT startups in Central Asia, located in the country's capital. Astana Hub is home to over 1,500 companies, including 400 international firms. In 2024, its total revenue reached 620 billion KZT ($1.1 billion), with export revenue amounting to 227 billion KZT ($428 million) across 92 countries. Additionally, the products of JSC "National Information Technologies" (NIT JSC), the operator of Kazakhstan’s “e-government” infrastructure, have also entered global markets. According to Madiyev, NIT JSC’s main exported products include Smart Data Ukimet, Smart Bridge, and Gov.kz: Smart Data Ukimet: An information-analytical platform designed for the secure collection, storage, and analysis of data from government information systems. Smart Bridge: A platform that simplifies integration processes between government agencies and private businesses through a "service showcase" model. Gov.kz: A unified platform for the online resources of government agencies. The export of Kazakhstan’s digital public services (GovTech) reached $2.7 million, with these solutions currently supplied to Tajikistan, Togo, and Sierra Leone. In addition to GovTech, Kazakhstan’s IT exports also include software, computer games, fintech solutions, and marketplaces. Among the largest exporters are five software developers, three computer game companies, one fintech firm, and one marketplace. “Most of the major exporters are foreign companies that have relocated to Kazakhstan, creating new jobs in major cities and regions, as well as contributing to export revenue,” said Madiyev. Kazakhstan has made significant strides in developing its IT infrastructure. The country now boasts 20 regional IT hubs that work closely with Astana Hub, fostering innovation across the nation. Furthermore, Kazakhstan is establishing an international network of IT hubs by opening IT offices in the United States, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, and the United Kingdom. “Kazakhstani startups now have foreign infrastructure to attract investment and expand their export markets,” said Madiyev. The minister also announced the launch of a fund of venture capital funds under the jurisdiction of the International Financial Center Astana (MFCA), based at Astana Hub. This fund, with an expected capital of $1 billion, will finance IT startups in Kazakhstan. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan is home to 12 regional IT hubs that are actively contributing to the country’s growing digital economy.

Approval Ratings

Tokayev’s Approval Rating Soars Amid Economic Gains, But Leadership Challenges Persist

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s approval rating remains consistently high, as confirmed by multiple surveys. However, experts note challenges within Kazakhstan's political landscape, including a lack of standout leaders and frequent staff turnover in government structures. High Approval Ratings Linked to Economic Well-Being In December 2024, the Social and Political Research Foundation "Strategy" released a survey showing President Tokayev's approval rating at 80.4%. This marks an increase from December 2023, when the foundation reported a 76.4% approval rating. Other studies corroborate these findings; for instance, the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies found in July 2024 that 77.1% of Kazakhstanis trust the president. Explaining the methodology behind these surveys, Gulmira Ileuova, head of the Strategy Foundation and a member of the advisory public organization, the National Kurultai, told the Times of Central Asia: “The question to respondents is framed as, ‘Do you approve of the activities of the president, parliament, and government?’ Of those surveyed, 80.4% chose ‘I approve/Somewhat approve.’ Additionally, a separate project showed trust in the president at 77%.” Ileuova highlighted that Tokayev has faced numerous social, economic, and political challenges during his tenure. She noted a significant drop in his approval rating during December 2021, when the COVID-19 pandemic and quarantine restrictions were in effect. At that time, his approval rating fell to 40%. However, it rebounded in the subsequent years, reaching its highest level in 2024. By comparison, the government and parliament lag in terms of public support, with approval ratings of 59% and 54%, respectively. Ileuova explained that such gaps between the president’s popularity and that of other branches of government were also characteristic during the presidency of Nursultan Nazarbayev, which ended in 2019. The sustainability of these high ratings, she argued, hinges on the country’s economic performance. Historically, fluctuations in citizens’ well-being have had a direct impact on the approval ratings of political leaders. Criticism and Public Perception Despite the high ratings, Ileuova acknowledged skepticism toward her research. Critics often accuse survey organizations of bias, particularly those who inhabit what she describes as “information bubbles.” “On social media, individuals often focus solely on content that aligns with their negative perception of the president or the country’s overall situation. For example, some claim the government failed to help flood victims. While isolated cases exist, most victims received aid, and houses were built for them. Of course, there are valid reasons for criticism, but there are also many achievements that benefit ordinary people,” she explained. The connection between Tokayev’s approval rating and public living standards is evident. According to Strategy’s December 2024 survey, 29.6% of respondents described their financial situation as “good” or “very good,” while 15% rated theirs as “bad” or “very bad.” The majority - 52.8% - said their family’s financial situation is “average.” The Challenge of Personnel Management Experts point to difficulties in assessing President Tokayev’s personnel policies. While some figures - such as Mazhilis Speaker Yerlan Koshanov, Senate Speaker Maulen Ashimbayev, State Counselor Yerlan Karin, and Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov - maintain steady approval ratings,...

Global Diplomacy

Jackson-Vanik: One Step Away from Repeal

The U.S. Senate has confirmed Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, raising hopes among Central Asian leaders - particularly in Kazakhstan - that his recent comments regarding the Jackson-Vanik amendment may soon translate into concrete action to repeal this outdated policy, which continues to hinder mutual trade. Passed in 1974 as part of the Trade Act under President Gerald Ford, the Jackson-Vanik amendment was designed to penalize countries with non-market economies that restricted emigration, particularly targeting the Soviet Union. The amendment specifically sought to pressure the USSR to allow its Jewish population to emigrate freely, while also protesting the suppression of Judaism and other religious practices. The amendment achieved a measure of success by 1989, when the Iron Curtain fell and Soviet Jews were permitted to emigrate in large numbers, primarily to Israel and the United States. However, the policy remained in place, even after the dissolution of the USSR, applying to the newly independent Central Asian republics despite their vastly different political and economic landscapes. On January 15, Rubio delivered a nearly five-hour confirmation speech during a Senate hearing for his nomination as Secretary of State under the Donald Trump administration. Among the topics discussed was the Jackson-Vanik amendment. Senator Steve Daines specifically asked Rubio for his position on the amendment, emphasizing that its repeal could normalize U.S. trade relations with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Rubio described the amendment as “an absurd relic of the past,” asserting that it no longer serves any meaningful purpose in pressuring Central Asian countries on human rights. He warned that continued use of such measures could push nations like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan closer to Russia’s sphere of influence. Rubio singled out Kazakhstan, noting that the country had “successfully met the conditions” to transition to a market economy, as evidenced by its accession to the World Trade Organization several years ago. He pledged to work with lawmakers to repeal the Jackson-Vanik amendment, signaling a shift in U.S. policy toward fostering deeper economic ties with the region. Why Central Asia Was Left Behind The continued application of the Jackson-Vanik amendment to Central Asia can be partially explained by the differing domestic policies of its key players - Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Under Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan quickly abandoned Soviet-era restrictions on emigration and took steps to promote religious tolerance and interfaith harmony. By contrast, Uzbekistan under Islam Karimov maintained many of the Soviet Union’s repressive practices, including restrictions on religious minorities. This disparity in policies contributed to Washington’s perception of the region as monolithic and resistant to reform, discouraging efforts to lift the amendment. Recent Developments and Challenges In recent years, there have been efforts to lower trade barriers between the U.S. and Central Asia, particularly through initiatives like the B5+1 dialogue, which aims to attract greater Western investment to the region. However, the Jackson-Vanik amendment complicates these efforts, as countries must secure an annual waiver from the U.S. President to maintain normal trade relations. Kazakhstan has emerged as the frontrunner in advocating for the amendment’s repeal. An...

EBRD

EBRD Invests Record €2.26 Billion in Central Asia in 2024

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) reached a record level of investment in Central Asia in 2024, contributing €2.26 billion to 121 projects across six countries in the region. This was nearly double the amount invested in 2023. Additionally, the EBRD attracted €784 million from co-financiers, bringing the total investment in the region’s economy to over €3 billion. Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan Lead in Funding Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan were the largest recipients of EBRD funding, securing €938 million and €913 million, respectively. These two nations ranked as the fifth and sixth largest destinations for EBRD investments globally in 2024. Other countries in the immediate region also benefited from significant funding, with Mongolia receiving €264 million, Tajikistan €88 million, and the Kyrgyz Republic €52 million. Focus on Sustainable Infrastructure and Green Economy The majority of EBRD investments in Central Asia supported sustainable infrastructure projects, accounting for 61% of the total. Another 24% was channeled to local banks to assist small businesses, women entrepreneurs, and youth-focused initiatives, as well as projects promoting climate resilience and resource efficiency. The remaining 15% was allocated to private-sector companies. In alignment with the Paris Agreement, 58% of EBRD investments in the region went to projects promoting a green economy. Milestones in 2024 The EBRD achieved several notable milestones in 2024: Total investments in Kazakhstan surpassed €10 billion. Uzbekistan reached €5 billion in cumulative EBRD funding. Both Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic exceeded €1 billion in total investments since the EBRD began operations in the region 30 years ago. Landmark Projects The EBRD financed several groundbreaking projects in Central Asia during 2024, including: Uzbekistan: €59 million for a renewable hydrogen facility aimed at decarbonizing the fertilizer sector. Kazakhstan: €96.4 million for a new wastewater treatment plant in Aktobe, the largest municipal project supported by the EBRD in the region. Mongolia: €11.3 million to support the first green bond issued by a local bank. Investments in Energy Infrastructure Significant funding was also allocated to improving electricity grids across the region: In Kazakhstan, €252 million was used to construct 600 km of transmission lines. In Uzbekistan, €60.3 million supported the development of a 230 km transmission line in the Navoi region. In the Kyrgyz Republic, €14 million upgraded power infrastructure in Osh and Issyk-Kul. In Tajikistan, €31 million was allocated to improve a transformer in the Sugd region. Investments in Health and Transportation The EBRD also provided substantial funding for healthcare and infrastructure projects: Kazakhstan: €365 million for a hospital project. Uzbekistan: €216 million for a road and bridge project in the Khorezm region. Mongolia: €39.2 million for a hospital in Darkhan. Support for Small Businesses The EBRD continued its efforts to empower small businesses in Central Asia, providing advisory services to more than 450 small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Over 8,000 SMEs benefited from training and mentoring programs. In Tajikistan, the EBRD launched its Star Venture initiative, allocating €28 million to 25 high-growth companies through agreements with local banks. The EBRD’s Legacy in Central Asia As the...

Nuclear Power

Kazakhstan’s Nuclear Power Move and Implications for the West

Kazakhstan’s recent referendum approving the construction of its first nuclear power plant (NPP) is a watershed moment. More than a domestic policy decision, this move puts into relief Kazakhstan's strategy for positioning itself as a linchpin in the diversification of global energy supply chains, with the world's largest uranium reserves accounting for nearly 40% of the global supply and a key geographic location. The country's ambitions align with the broader resurgence of nuclear power as an indispensable component of a sustainable energy future, countering decades of stagnation in the West and challenging the dominance of Russia and China. The renewed attention on nuclear energy arises from a convergence of systemic and technological factors. Environmental pressures to reduce reliance on fossil fuels such as gas and coal have left energy producers searching for scalable, reliable alternatives. Renewable energy sources like wind and solar, while important, remain limited by intermittency and storage challenges. At the same time, safety concerns rooted in historical disasters — Chernobyl, Three Mile Island, and Fukushima — have been mitigated by advances in reactor technology. A growing public recognition of nuclear power's viability has resulted. In this context, Kazakhstan's entry into the nuclear power arena is logical. Enhancing its ability to integrate uranium extraction with downstream nuclear fuel production would underscore its potential to play a central role in addressing global energy needs. By fostering international partnerships, Kazakhstan can leverage its resource wealth to become a critical supplier for advanced economies looking to diversify their energy mix. Kazakhstan's move comes at a time of shifting geoeconomic dynamics in the nuclear energy sector. Over the past three decades, Russia and China have consolidated their dominance, exploiting the West’s inertia. Russia has used NPP construction as a geoeconomic tool, creating dependence in such countries as Turkey and Uzbekistan. China, meanwhile, has aggressively developed its domestic nuclear infrastructure while securing global uranium supplies, particularly through investments in Africa and Central Asia. By contrast, Western nations have lagged behind, plagued by fragmented project management, skilled labor shortages, and political resistance. Anti-nuclear movements, many of which gained momentum during the Cold War with Soviet backing, have continued to stymie development in Europe and North America. The resulting industrial inertia has left Western economies vulnerable, with insufficient capacity to meet rising energy demands or counterbalance Russian and Chinese influence. Kazakhstan's emergence offers the West a rare opportunity to reverse this trend. The country’s multi-vector diplomatic strategy, emphasizing balanced relations with global powers, makes it an ideal partner for rebalancing energy supply chains. Kazakhstan’s role in global energy extends beyond uranium. The country’s geological resources overlap with deposits of rare-earth elements (REEs), which are vital for advanced defense technologies, renewable energy systems, and high-tech manufacturing. The shared extraction technologies and logistical infrastructure for uranium and REEs present opportunities for integrated resource development. NATO’s Partnership for Peace (PfP) program could play a pivotal role in this regard. By incorporating rare-earth mining and supply chain security into NATO’s Critical Energy Infrastructure Protection (CEIP) framework, member states could...