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Central Asian Politics

The “Central Asia 2030” Roundtable in Astana: From External Interest to Regional Choice

Discussions about Central Asia’s long-term strategic future are increasingly shifting from a focus on external attention to one of growing regional agency. On Monday, Astana International University hosted the first roundtable in the series Central Asia 2030: Strategic Horizons and Regional Choices. Speakers included Andrew D’Anieri, Deputy Director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center; Yerkin Tukumov, Special Representative of the President of Kazakhstan; Ambassador-at-Large Zulfiya Suleimenova; and Dauren Aben, Deputy Director of the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of Kazakhstan. Pragmatism, Regional Choice, and the Logic of the “Grand Bargain” In his remarks, Andrew D’Anieri emphasized that Central Asia is increasingly viewed in the U.S. not as a peripheral zone but as an independent strategic partner. He noted that “environmental, water, and climate issues considered within a regional framework are fully supported by the U.S.” However, he added that “long-term commercial and investment projects are impossible without long-term stability, which in turn requires coordination between neighbors, engagement on sensitive issues, and pragmatic regional cooperation.” D’Anieri also pointed to Afghanistan as “an integral part of regional logic,” and described formats such as C5+1 as evidence of Central Asia’s growing subjectivity. He highlighted the first-ever C5+1 summit at the presidential level in Washington as a landmark event, especially under the administration of Donald Trump, known for its preference for bilateral over multilateral formats. Trump and the Possibility of a Visit: Only with a “Big Deal” When asked whether a visit by President Trump to Central Asia is realistic, D’Anieri offered a candid assessment: “Such a visit is only possible if there is a large, symbolically and economically significant deal.” Whether in aviation, technology, or infrastructure, these high-visibility projects are typically what draw Trump’s engagement. He added that “the region has work to do in developing a package of initiatives that could interest the U.S. president and justify a high-level visit.” Potential areas include mining, transport, and logistics. Reframing Afghanistan’s Role in the Region Special Representative Yerkin Tukumov focused on the importance of reframing the region’s relationship with Afghanistan. For too long, he said, Afghanistan has been viewed primarily “through the prism of security threats,” resulting in a narrow and often misleading approach. Tukumov argued for a broader, more pragmatic view that considers economic, humanitarian, and cross-border dimensions. He described the C5+1 format not as a replacement for bilateral diplomacy, but as “an additional level of coordination where Central Asia can speak with a more consolidated voice without losing national autonomy in foreign policy.” He stressed the need to move beyond “ideological and declarative approaches,” toward practical, interest-based mechanisms of cooperation. Ecology, Water, and the Case for a Global Water Agency Ambassador-at-Large Zulfiya Suleimenova addressed the strategic urgency of regional coordination on water and climate. She emphasized that “water issues are transboundary in nature,” and that efforts to resolve them solely within national frameworks are bound to fall short. “Regional coordination in Central Asia is not a political slogan, but a functional necessity,” she said. Suleimenova argued that jointly promoting...

Copper

Kazakhstan Reshapes Copper Export Flows Amid Rising Global Demand

As global demand for copper continues to increase, driven by energy transition and the digital economy, Kazakhstan, a major global producer, is not only increasing its output but also significantly reshaping its export geography. Analysts at Energyprom.kz have examined the current shifts in the sector and the evolving landscape of Kazakhstan’s copper exports. With its substantial reserves and a developed metallurgy sector, Kazakhstan is well positioned to benefit from this strategic opportunity. According to preliminary data from the National Statistics Bureau, the country produced 471,000 tons of refined copper in 2025, an increase of 7,100 tons, or 1.5%, from 2024’s 463,900 tons. This suggests a gradual stabilization of the industry following previous fluctuations. Production trends over recent years have been inconsistent. In 2018, Kazakhstan produced 442,600 tons of refined copper. Output rose 7.7% to 476,500 tons in 2019 and grew modestly in 2020 to 482,900 tons (+1.3%). However, production dropped sharply in 2021 to 403,300 tons, a decline of 16.5%, due to major repairs and upgrades at key processing facilities, including a furnace overhaul at the Balkhash Copper Smelter operated by Kazakhmys Smelting LLP, and disruptions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. By 2024, output had rebounded to 474,900 tons, up 17.8% from the 2021 low, signaling the industry’s return to pre-crisis levels. Despite global demand, Kazakhstan’s total exports of refined copper declined in 2025. However, the structure of those exports shifted notably. Deliveries to Turkey rose from 142,200 to 164,000 tons, an increase of 21,800 tons, or 15.3%. Turkey’s share of Kazakhstan’s copper exports rose from 32.5% to 40.9%, making it the country’s second-largest export destination. Combined, China and Turkey accounted for about 90% of Kazakhstan’s copper exports from January to November 2025, indicating a still high level of market concentration. However, exports to other countries grew 4.4 times from 9,200 tons to 40,100 tons, raising their share from 2.1% to 10%. This points to early signs of diversification. These shifts in Kazakhstan’s export strategy coincide with major developments in global demand. According to a forecast by S&P Global, global copper consumption is projected to grow from 27.3 million tons in 2024 to 42.3 million tons by 2040, an increase of 15 million tons, or approximately 55%. The primary drivers include electric vehicles, renewable energy development, power grid upgrades, artificial intelligence, data centers, and rising defense sector needs. By 2040, copper use in the energy transition sector is expected to more than double from 7.6 million tons in 2024 to 15.6 million tons. Copper demand for AI and data centers is forecast to rise from 1 million to 2.5 million tons. Even traditional sectors like construction and mechanical engineering will grow, projected to increase from 17.8 million to 23.3 million tons. China will remain the world’s largest consumer of refined copper. According to Fitch Solutions, Chinese demand is expected to rise from 15.9 million tons in 2023 to 18.9 million tons by 2028, an increase of 19%, or more than 3 million tons. This would allow China to maintain a...

Winter Olympic Games

Inspired by Golovkin, Young Kazakhstani Skier Heads to Winter Olympics

A 16-year-old Kazakhstani freestyle skier who won silver in the mixed team aerials event at the 2025 Asian Games is among athletes from Central Asia who will compete at the Olympic Games in Italy this month. With a 36-member team, Kazakhstan is sending the largest contingent from the region to the games, which run from February 6 to February 22 in Milan, Cortina d'Ampezzo in the Dolomites and other locations in northern Italy. The youngest member of the team is Asylkhan Assan, who also took tenth place for Kazakhstan at a World Cup event in China a year ago and has competed in other international competitions. “The most important thing is to perform well. To fully demonstrate my potential and not make mistakes during the jump,” Assan said in an interview posted on the the Olympic.kz website. The teen athlete said he got into sports when he was five years old and, with the encouragement of his grandmother, followed his sister into freestyle skiiing. The acrobatic sport features flips, twists and somersaults after skiiing off a steep jump and concludes with a hopefully clean landing on a downhill slope. “I had injuries during my career, but my family always supported me,” he said. “I did not break down physically or psychologically.” Assan said his role model is Gennady Golovkin, the former middleweight world champion from Kazakhstan, and that he used to wake up early to watch the boxer’s fights. Golovkin, head of Kazakhstan’s National Olympic Committee, was named president of World Boxing at the federation’s inaugural congress in Rome in November. Freestyle skiing emerged in the 1960s at a time of social change and a push for “more more freedom of expression, even in sports,” the Olympics organization said. It was “initially called ‘hotdogging’ because it involved a mix of acrobatic moves, aerials, and adrenaline,” it said. The International Ski Federation recognised freestyle as a discipline in 1979, introduced guidelines to make it safer and held the first events in the following year. It made its Olympic debut as a demonstration sport at the games in Calgary, Canada in 1988. The town of Livigno will host the freestyle skiiing and snowboarding events at this year’s Winter Olympics.

Water Conservation

Kazakhstan’s Water Ministry Approves Roadmap to Eliminate the “Black Market” for Water

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, in coordination with the General Prosecutor's Office, has unveiled a comprehensive action plan to combat illegal water abstraction, commonly referred to as the “black market” for water. The roadmap was presented at an interdepartmental meeting earlier this week. The plan outlines systematic measures, including a nationwide audit of water resources, the mapping of regions vulnerable to illegal abstraction, and a review of state funding allocated for water infrastructure development. It also calls for the adoption of water-saving technologies and the implementation of anti-corruption mechanisms. Interdepartmental working groups will be established at both national and regional levels, incorporating law enforcement representatives with investigative authority. A central component of the strategy is the digital transformation of irrigation water distribution. This will include the deployment of satellite and digital monitoring systems, centralized accounting tools, and mandatory interdepartmental data-sharing. Special emphasis will be placed on ensuring compliance with water use quotas and promoting crop diversification among farmers. Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Nurzhan Nurzhigitov emphasized that eradicating the shadow water trade demands coordinated efforts from government institutions and law enforcement, with the prosecutor’s office playing a leading role. “No lawbreaker should escape responsibility,” he said. According to ministry estimates, the black market accounts for 5-10% of Kazakhstan’s agricultural water consumption. The country’s total annual water usage is approximately 25 billion cubic meters, with the agricultural sector consuming about 60%, roughly 15 billion cubic meters. In a recent address to the nation, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev called for the complete elimination of illegal water trafficking. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan’s water legislation already includes provisions for the gradual tightening of regulations on legal water users. Authorities have stated that immediate action will be taken to dismantle the illicit segment of the market.

Investments

Kazakhstan Plans to Attract More Than $60 Billion in Investments in 2026

Kazakhstan aims to attract $62.7 billion in total investment in 2026, including $25.5 billion in foreign capital. The figures were announced during a government meeting on investment strategy chaired by Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov. According to Bektenov, state authorities have been tasked with increasing the inflow of high-quality investments and ensuring the launch of projects with high added value. In line with this strategic goal, Kazakhstan’s Investment Policy Concept has been updated and extended to 2030. By the end of 2025, investment in fixed capital had reached $45 billion. In 2026, the government plans to implement 475 investment projects worth approximately $32 billion, creating over 1,100 permanent jobs. For comparison, 273 projects valued at $5 billion were launched in 2025. The government is shifting to a proactive investment model focused on sector-specific targeting and the development of a pre-approved portfolio of investment proposals. Major projects underway include the CHN Corporation’s $4 billion coal chemical complex in the Karaganda region, Fufeng Group’s $800 million corn deep processing plant, Shandong Yuwang Industrial’s $250 million soybean processing facility, and additional investments from Roca Group and UBM Group. Investor protection remains a top priority. The investment ombudsman role has been transferred to the Prosecutor General. In addition, the former investment committee has been restructured into the Committee for the Protection of Investors’ Rights. According to the Prosecutor General’s Office; these reforms have led to a 30% reduction in legal disputes involving investors. Despite this progress, Bektenov emphasized that excessive bureaucracy and delays in local procedures continue to hinder investment, resulting in direct economic losses. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan was named as one of the leading investment destinations in the Eurasian region, alongside Uzbekistan.

Higher Education

From Central Asia to the World: How a U.S.-Raised Kazakh Founder Is Using AI to Unlock Global Education

For many talented students across Central Asia, admission to the world’s leading universities remains an elusive goal, not due to a lack of ability, but because of complex application procedures, and expensive consulting services. A new AI platform, yoonee.ai, is working to change that. At the heart of the initiative is a woman bridging continents and reconnecting with her cultural roots. One of the platform’s co-founders is ethic Kazakh Gulmira Sage, who was adopted and raised in the United States. Despite growing up in America, she says her connection to Kazakhstan never waned. Last year, her journey back to Kazakhstan to meet her biological mother captured national attention. Now, she is once again in the spotlight, this time for launching a project that promises to reshape access to global education. “Coming back to my homeland after many years felt like reclaiming a missing part of myself,” she says. That personal journey now underpins the mission behind yoonee.ai: a platform designed to help students from Central Asia navigate international higher education systems with greater ease and confidence. From Aviation to AI Before venturing into the tech sector, Gulmira worked as an analyst at Delta Air Lines, one of the world’s largest carriers. There, she worked with complex datasets, financial models, and global logistics, skills she says sharpened her systems thinking. “My background is actually in aviation. I worked as an analyst at one of the biggest airlines in the world, dealing with complex data, financials, and the global logistics that keep an airline moving,” she explains. “Aviation connects people physically, and IT does the same thing electronically. Technology connects them digitally.” That experience fueled her belief that digital tools, and AI in particular, could help eliminate long-standing educational barriers. Together with her co-founders, Feruza and Aidana, she began building yoonee.ai, drawing on their shared academic and professional experiences in the U.S., France, and Kazakhstan. How the Platform Works Yoonee.ai allows students to upload academic documents directly into the system. Using AI, the platform translates them with academic accuracy and converts grades into internationally recognized formats. For instance, GPA scores from five-point or 100-point systems are standardized to U.S. benchmarks, allowing students to assess how competitive their profiles are for specific universities. The platform also offers a “match score” that estimates a student’s compatibility with selected institutions. According to the founders, many qualified applicants are rejected not for academic shortcomings but due to formatting errors or unmet technical requirements. “Geography Should Not Decide a Student’s Future” The team sees its mission as the democratization of global education. Their goal is to eliminate what they call the “geographic tax” – the added financial and informational burden on students from developing regions. This is especially relevant in rural parts of Kazakhstan and neighboring countries, where access to U.S.-trained admissions consultants is limited and often unaffordable. To improve accessibility, the platform will be available in Kazakh, Russian, and Uzbek, allowing students to explore global university options in their native languages, directly from their smartphones. Cultural...