Kazakhstan International Affairs - The Times Of Central Asia

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Black Sea Tanker Attacks

Europe Must Defend the Distinction It Has Made Between Kazakhstani and Russian Oil

In the early hours of July 30, drones struck two tankers at the marine terminal of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) near Novorossiysk: the Nissos Sifnos while it was loading Tengizchevroil crude at Single Point Mooring 3, and the Marathi as it approached the terminal. Loading was temporarily suspended, although the pipeline remained operational. Neither vessel sank; no casualties or oil spill were reported. Earlier attacks in July had already interrupted CPC loading operations and prompted a formal protest from Kazakhstan. Astana said that an agreed mechanism for exchanging information about civilian vessels entering the Black Sea to load CPC oil had been disregarded. The recurrence was more important than the damage: it could alter commercial expectations and behavior. The pipeline is not the relevant analytical unit; the export chain is. It can remain operational even when the maritime egress of its oil to world markets has ceased to function. Once loading stops and terminal storage fills, CPC must restrict intake from Kazakhstan, transmitting the interruption backward through the system until producers reduce output. After two tankers bound for the CPC terminal were struck in January, Black Sea war-risk premiums rose from 0.6–0.8% to 1% of vessel value, while insurers shortened their review of terms from every 48 hours to every 24 hours. By July, vessels were avoiding the terminal on safety grounds even though no structural damage to it had been reported. Commercial use of CPC was thus impaired despite the integrity of its infrastructure. The concentration of Kazakhstan’s exports magnifies the effect. CPC carries approximately four-fifths of its oil exports, including production from Tengiz, Kashagan, and Karachaganak. The July interruption exposed the consequence: full terminal storage obliged CPC to halt intake, while the Kazakhstani government confirmed that producers had reduced output because of export constraints. The vulnerability reaches backward from maritime egress into production. Crude from Kazakhstan occupies a material place in the EU’s non-Russian import structure, giving Europe a direct interest in the matter. Kazakhstan supplied 11.5% of EU petroleum-oil imports in 2024 and 9.6% in the first quarter of 2026, ranking among the Union’s three largest suppliers in both periods. The EU’s sanctions architecture already recognizes that Kazakhstani oil passing through Russian territory does not thereby become Russian oil. Commission guidance treats CPC crude as originating in Kazakhstan when supported by certificates of origin or other documentation, notwithstanding unavoidable admixture with Russian oil. EU legislation also provides targeted derogations permitting goods, technology, and services required for the operation and maintenance of CPC infrastructure. The differentiated treatment is narrow: it attaches to the origin and documentation of the cargo, not indiscriminately to every vessel, facility, or transaction associated with CPC. Cargo, route, terminal, and vessel remain legally separable. The distinction became especially salient when the sanctioned Nelsa, which had carried Russian Urals crude, was attacked at the same terminal after vessels loading Kazakhstani crude had been struck. Europe nevertheless lacks a CPC-specific public-policy position on repeated disruption of the export chain carrying exempted crude, even though its...

Regional Cooperation

Central Asia and Azerbaijan: What the Region’s Leaders Agreed at Issyk-Kul

The Kyrgyz resort town of Cholpon-Ata, on the shores of Lake Issyk-Kul, briefly became Central Asia’s political capital as it hosted a series of high-level meetings, including bilateral talks between the presidents of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, the state visit of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, and the informal Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State of Central Asia and Azerbaijan. Only a few years ago, such a format would have seemed unlikely. Today, however, regional leaders are discussing joint railway projects, energy security, transport corridors, investment, and foreign-policy coordination rather than managing old disputes. The agreements reached in Cholpon-Ata suggest that the consultative format is gradually evolving from a platform for political dialogue into a mechanism for practical regional cooperation. From Conflict to Alliance Ahead of the informal multilateral meeting, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev held bilateral talks that set the tone for the broader regional meeting. Relations between the two countries now stand in sharp contrast to the situation sixteen years ago. Following the ethnic violence in southern Kyrgyzstan in June 2010, relations between Bishkek and Tashkent entered one of their most difficult periods since independence. The agenda between the two neighbors has since changed dramatically. Speaking in Cholpon-Ata, Mirziyoyev said relations between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan had reached “a historic peak.” Bilateral trade has increased almost tenfold in recent years, reaching $1.2 billion last year. The two countries now have around 450 joint ventures, operate a joint Development Fund to support cooperative projects, and have established 15 air routes and five bus services linking their cities. Mirziyoyev described the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway as one of the most important joint initiatives between the two countries, arguing that the project would reshape transport links across Eurasia. “This railway will fundamentally change the geopolitical landscape. Those who understand what it took to make this happen know what a major achievement it is,” Mirziyoyev said. The talks concluded with the signing of a Treaty on Allied Relations between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. The two sides also exchanged several bilateral documents, including agreements covering sections of their common border and the joint use of the Chashma spring. A Broader Regional Agenda While the Japarov-Mirziyoyev talks focused primarily on bilateral relations, the informal Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State of Central Asia and Azerbaijan broadened the discussion to regional integration, transport connectivity, energy security, and foreign-policy coordination. Opening the meeting, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov said one of the clearest results of closer regional cooperation had been the Central Asian countries’ growing support for one another on the international stage. As an example, he cited the region’s joint support for Kyrgyzstan’s successful bid for a non-permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council for the 2027-2028 term. Japarov also revived the idea of introducing a single tourist visa for foreign visitors traveling across Central Asia, proposing that the region’s foreign ministries intensify consultations on the initiative. Azerbaijan’s participation as a full member gave the meeting additional significance. Baku joined the consultative format as a...

Energy Security

Kazakhstan Weighs Proposal to Process Russian Crude

Kazakhstan is considering a plan to process Russian crude at its refineries, a step Astana says could support plant utilization and domestic fuel supplies but could also raise sanctions-compliance and diplomatic questions, depending on its scale and structure. The Energy Ministry said on July 30 that discussions cover refining oil “of Russian origin,” selling part of the output in Kazakhstan, and exporting part back to Russia. It did not identify the refineries, volumes, counterparties, or commercial terms. The talks come as parts of Russia face fuel shortages following repeated Ukrainian strikes on refineries. Moscow has extended export restrictions on gasoline, diesel, marine fuel, and gas oils until January 31, 2027, although producers regain exemptions for several products from September 1. The two countries already exchange crude, feedstock, and refined products. Russia discussed buying about 50,000 metric tons of Kazakh gasoline in June. Astana said at the time that it had received no formal request and would protect domestic supply. Trade has since moved beyond discussion. Kazakhstan's Condensate refinery is processing Russian naphtha and exported gasoline to Russia for the first time in July. Kazakhstan has a practical industrial case for considering the proposal. Although the ministry has not identified any refinery involved in the talks, the Pavlodar refinery was designed to process West Siberian crude and remains connected to Russian supply routes. The two countries share extensive energy transport systems and coordinate annual fuel balances. The ministry said steady feedstock would support refinery utilization and domestic supply. The wider regional focus on fuel security was evident on July 31, when Tajik President Emomali Rahmon proposed building large oil refineries in Central Asia, prioritizing domestic demand for essential petroleum products. Decades of infrastructure integration also constrain Kazakhstan’s room for maneuver. More than 80% of its oil exports cross Russian territory through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. Much of Kazakhstan’s rail trade is tied to Russian networks. These links narrow Kazakhstan’s near-term options and raise the economic cost of abrupt changes to established energy arrangements. The scale and destination of the resulting fuel would determine much of the political meaning. Small volumes sold mainly in Kazakhstan could resemble established regional commerce. A larger export-oriented program supplying Russia during a period of refinery disruption would draw more scrutiny, particularly if it materially eased pressure on Russia’s fuel system. The sensitivity has been heightened by renewed disruption around the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. On July 30, attacks hit NISSOS SIFNOS and MARATHI near the CPC terminal at Novorossiysk. Oil loading stopped only three days after Kazakhstan resumed exports following a week-long disruption. The route is Kazakhstan’s principal oil export artery. The earlier stoppage cut national oil and gas condensate output to about one million barrels per day by July 26, less than half the June average. Russia explicitly blamed Ukraine. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova called the July 30 strikes “actions of a terrorist nature” and said they harmed Kazakh and U.S. economic interests. Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry confirmed the incidents but did not name an attacker....

Black Sea Tanker Attacks

CPC Halts Oil Loadings Again After Two More Tankers Attacked Near Novorossiysk

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium has stopped oil loading at its Black Sea terminal near Novorossiysk after two more tankers were attacked early on July 30. The suspension came only three days after Kazakhstan resumed exports through the route following a week-long disruption. The Marshall Islands-flagged NISSOS SIFNOS was attacked at 1:48 a.m. Moscow time while loading Tengizchevroil crude at single-point mooring SPM-3, CPC said. A drone hit the cargo deck near the manifolds used to receive oil. The strike caused a fire, which the crew extinguished with help from three CPC support vessels. CPC said no employees or contractors were injured, no oil spill occurred, and the crew did not request medical assistance or evacuation. Okeanis Eco Tankers, the vessel’s owner, said NISSOS SIFNOS sustained only minor damage, its crew was safe, and no spill or pollution occurred. The company said the tanker was continuing its voyage operations. The tanker MARATHI was also attacked while awaiting a berth at the CPC terminal, about six nautical miles, or eleven kilometres, offshore. Dynacom Tankers, the vessel’s operator, said it was struck by two projectiles of unknown origin. The resulting fire was extinguished by the crew, all of whom were safe and accounted for. No pollution was reported. Dynacom said it had activated its emergency response plan and remained in contact with the crew and the relevant authorities. “Oil loading has been stopped, while pipeline facilities are operating normally,” CPC said. The consortium did not identify who carried out either attack. No party had claimed responsibility when the suspension was announced. Ukraine’s drone forces later said they had struck four Russian tankers in the Black and Azov seas overnight but did not identify the vessels or locations. The statement therefore did not establish responsibility for the attacks on NISSOS SIFNOS or MARATHI. CPC said appeals from Kazakhstan and its foreign shareholders had been ignored. It said some representations were made through the U.S. State Department. On July 23, the chair of the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on South and Central Asia, Bill Huizenga, told The Times of Central Asia that further strikes affecting CPC infrastructure would “not be tolerated.” CPC said attacks near loading equipment could cause a major fire and oil spill. The consortium also warned of damage to Kazakhstan and to shippers including Chevron, ExxonMobil, Eni, TotalEnergies, and Shell. On July 27, CPC had restarted tanker loadings and resumed accepting oil from Kazakhstan after storage constraints forced producers to cut output. The July 30 incidents bring the number of tankers struck near or while serving the CPC terminal during July to at least eight. The sequence began with the Chevron-chartered Yasa Polaris on July 7. Nordic Zenith was hit on July 17. ASIA and NISSOS IOS were attacked while loading Kazakh crude on July 19. NELSA was struck at SPM-1 on July 20, and HERA was reported damaged while approaching the terminal on July 23. The earlier attacks repeatedly stopped loadings. CPC then stopped accepting crude, and tankers scheduled to collect...

U.S.-Kazakhstan Relations

Rubio and Kosherbayev Discuss CPC Ahead of Tokayev’s U.S. Visit

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a telephone conversation with Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister Yermek Kosherbayev on 29 July. The discussion focused on the situation surrounding the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, energy cooperation, critical minerals, trade and investment ties, and current international issues. According to the U.S. Department of State, Rubio and Kosherbayev discussed the importance of energy security, including the “reliable and uninterrupted” export of Kazakhstan-origin oil through the CPC system. Rubio also thanked Kazakhstan for supporting President Donald Trump’s peace initiatives and expressed interest in deepening bilateral economic cooperation. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the two ministers discussed in detail the situation surrounding the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, cooperation in the energy, transport and logistics sectors, supplies of critical minerals, efforts to attract U.S. investment, and coordination in international organisations. The ministry said the conversation also covered preparations for President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s forthcoming visit to the United States for the G20 summit. The telephone call took place shortly after Kazakhstan resumed crude oil exports through the CPC system. The pipeline carries the vast majority of crude exports from the Tengiz oilfield, whose largest shareholders include the U.S. companies Chevron and ExxonMobil. Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry said the two ministers reaffirmed their commitment to maintaining regular political dialogue. The conversation followed President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s meeting with U.S. Senator Steve Daines on 8 July, when the two sides discussed expanding trade and economic cooperation, attracting investment and strengthening cooperation in the energy sector. On 28 July, The Times of Central Asia reported that Kazakhstan had resumed oil exports through the CPC system after a week-long disruption at the consortium’s Black Sea marine terminal near Novorossiysk. The interruption more than halved oil production at Tengiz and again highlighted Kazakhstan’s dependence on its principal oil export route.

Caspian Sea

As Two Wars Reach the Caspian, Central Asia’s Middle Corridor Holds

On July 25, two wars met in waters that Central Asian governments had tried to keep apart. Ukraine reported successful long-range strikes in the Caspian Sea. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the targets included vessels involved in carrying military cargo from Iran and a warship. Tehran said an Iranian commercial vessel had been struck, killing one sailor and injuring another, and accused Kyiv of trying to widen the war. It remains unclear whether the vessel identified by Iran was among the targets described by Zelenskyy. Diplomacy produced a limited off-ramp. On July 28, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha told his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araqchi, that the strike on the Iranian ship was unintended. Both governments said they wanted to avoid further escalation. The call reduced the immediate risk of retaliation, but it did not remove the new danger. The Caspian is now one of the places where Russia’s war against Ukraine and the war involving Iran, Israel, and the United States intersect. Central Asia is exposed through the infrastructure and trade routes linking them. A “Sea of Peace” Under Pressure Turkmenistan responded to the incident with unusually direct language. Its Foreign Ministry called attacks on vessels in the Caspian “inadmissible” and described the waterway as a “sea of peace, harmony and good-neighborliness.” Ashgabat did not name Ukraine or endorse Iran’s account. Its restraint was characteristic, but the public criticism was unusual. Turkmenistan’s permanent neutrality normally produces guarded statements during external conflicts. The intervention showed that Ashgabat viewed the attack as a challenge to the regional order. Turkmenistan faces Iran across a 1,148-kilometer land border and the southern Caspian. Turkmenbashi port is also central to its plans for a larger role in Eurasian trade. The principle is set out in the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea, signed in Aktau in 2018. Its text calls for the peaceful use of the sea, prohibits the use or threat of force, and bars armed forces belonging to non-Caspian states. The convention has not entered into force because Iran has not ratified it. Its provisions were designed to govern relations among the five littoral states. They do not address a long-range strike carried out by a non-littoral state. But modern drones can cross distances that once provided strategic shelter. A landlocked sea can no longer be assumed to sit beyond the reach of surrounding wars. The Iran-Russia Link Ukraine has clear military reasons to look toward the Caspian. Iran has supplied Russia with drone technology used against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. The sea also provides a direct commercial route between Iranian ports and Russia’s Volga region. Kyiv now treats vessels on that route carrying military cargo as part of Russia’s military logistics. Iran described the vessel struck on July 25 as civilian. The dispute over the ship’s cargo is central because commercial and military supply chains can overlap. A vessel may be civilian by flag and registration while carrying goods that Ukraine considers part of Russia’s war effort. That uncertainty reaches beyond...