Kazakhstan International Affairs - The Times Of Central Asia

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U.S. Tariffs

U.S. Imposes 12.5% Tariff on Kazakhstan Over Third-Country Import Controls

Kazakhstan is the only Central Asian economy included in a new U.S. tariff action covering 60 trading partners. An additional tariff of 12.5% has been imposed on a range of Kazakh goods, excluding products listed in the annexes to the final decision. The rate applies to goods entered for consumption in the United States from July 24, 2026. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Trade and Integration said about 95% of the country’s exports to the United States would remain outside the measure because of the exemptions. It also said the new tariff replaces an expired temporary 10% surcharge and will not be added to it. Kazakhstan already prohibits forced labor in domestic employment under Article 7 of its Labor Code. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) did not allege that Kazakh exporters use forced labor. Its finding concerned a separate gap: Kazakhstan lacks a customs prohibition capable of excluding foreign goods produced wholly or partly with forced labor. The investigation was launched in March under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, a mechanism that allows Washington to respond to foreign practices it considers discriminatory or restrictive to U.S. commerce. In June, USTR concluded that the policies of all 60 economies under review warranted action. The final decision followed more than 1,600 written comments and testimony from over 100 witnesses. Most of the economies were divided into two rate groups, while the European Union, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and Switzerland received special treatment linked to existing most-favored-nation tariffs. This was not a Kazakhstan-specific finding. USTR identified the same deficiency in 53 other economies, including Australia, Japan, Norway, Singapore, and South Korea. Together, the 60 economies under investigation accounted for 99.4% of U.S. imports. A 10% tariff was imposed on countries that had introduced at least a partial ban on imports associated with forced labor or made corresponding commitments to Washington. Kazakhstan was placed in the 12.5% category alongside Australia, Israel, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, and several other U.S. trading partners, as well as China and Russia. The immediate cost to Kazakhstan will depend largely on the scope of the exemptions. Washington exempted raw materials where tariffs could leave the U.S. market without sufficient domestic supply, products whose higher cost could cause wider economic disruption, and goods that the United States cannot produce in sufficient quantities or obtain elsewhere. The 12.5% rate therefore does not mean that all Kazakh exports will become more expensive in the American market. The structure of bilateral trade further limits the likely damage. Kazakhstan’s exports to the United States are concentrated in commodities, particularly oil, uranium, metals, and semi-processed materials. Many serve U.S. energy and industrial needs. The Kazakh government’s estimate that about 95% of exports remain exempt indicates that the largest trade flows should avoid the additional tariff, although the U.S. notice does not provide a Kazakhstan-specific calculation. According to U.S. figures, goods trade between the two countries reached $5 billion in 2025. U.S. imports from Kazakhstan rose by 73%...

Bilateral Relations

Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Council of Regional Leaders Holds First Meeting

The first meeting of the Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan Council of Regional Leaders was held in the Caspian city of Aktau on July 24, involving Kazakh Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov and Uzbek Prime Minister Abdulla Aripov, according to the Kazakh government. The new platform for regional cooperation is aimed at facilitating trade and investment, as well as strengthening transport links and cross-border partnerships. “We attach special importance to the comprehensive development of our strategic partnership with our brotherly Uzbekistan,” Bektenov said, describing the establishment of the Council of Regional Leaders as a "logical" step in the two countries' relationship. Bektenov noted that direct ties between regions would play an important role in expanding trade and investment, adding that he was confident the council “will make a significant contribution” toward achieving the goal set by the two presidents of increasing bilateral trade to $10 billion. Aripov, his Uzbek counterpart, described Aktau as a symbolic venue for the inaugural meeting, calling it “the pearl of the Caspian Sea” and one of the region’s key transport and logistics hubs. “Kazakhstan is not only a close neighbor for Uzbekistan, but also a reliable strategic partner and ally,” Aripov said. “Interregional cooperation has become one of the priority areas of our partnership, and that is why our respected presidents decided to establish the Council of Regional Leaders.” He said direct contacts between regional authorities would provide “a powerful impetus” for further strengthening Uzbek-Kazakh relations. Bektenov also highlighted the importance of fully launching the Central Asia International Center for Industrial Cooperation, saying the project should be filled with competitive and mutually beneficial initiatives. Transport and logistics featured prominently in the discussions. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan two countries share a border of approximately 2,300 kilometers and officials stressed the need to further develop infrastructure connecting the two countries. Particular attention was given to the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, which is linked to the North-South corridor and the Trans-Afghan route. According to the Kazakh government, cargo handling through the ports of Aktau and Kuryk reached 8 million tons last year. During the first half of 2026, container traffic through Kazakhstan’s ports increased by 5%, surpassing 50,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). The two sides also discussed expanding tourism cooperation, citing growing interest among citizens of both countries in visiting historical and cultural destinations. Regional leaders from both countries presented development plans during the plenary session. Participants included the governors of Kazakhstan’s Mangystau and Turkistan regions, the deputy mayor of Shymkent, and the governors of Uzbekistan’s Jizzakh, Syrdarya, and Tashkent regions. More than 300 business representatives from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan also attended the event. The meeting concluded with the signing of several memorandums between the regions of the two countries, along with commercial agreements worth more than 80 billion tenge, or approximately $170 million. According to the Kazakh government, the new agreements are expected to strengthen cross-border cooperation, support joint investment projects, and contribute to the long-term economic development of Central Asia.

Russia's War in Ukraine

Why Tokayev Urged Putin to Freeze the War in Ukraine

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has delivered his most direct public appeal to Vladimir Putin for an end to Russia's war in Ukraine. Speaking alongside the Russian president during the 22nd Kazakhstan-Russia Interregional Cooperation Forum in Omsk on July 25, Tokayev called for freezing the war and returning to what he described as the "Istanbul Formula 2.0." For many observers, the statement marked a significant departure from the cautious language traditionally used by leaders across the post-Soviet region. Although Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has repeatedly criticized the war and reaffirmed support for Ukraine's territorial integrity, Tokayev's intervention was notable because he advanced a concrete proposal directly to Putin on Russian territory. Tokayev's remarks were consistent with Kazakhstan's long-standing foreign policy, which has emphasized negotiated settlements and diplomatic conflict resolution. While Russia remains one of Kazakhstan's largest trading partners and a crucial infrastructure partner, Astana has not recognized Moscow's annexation of Ukrainian territory. The war has also become a direct economic concern for Kazakhstan. More than 80% of the country's crude exports move through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), whose Black Sea export route has recently been affected by attacks on tankers and related security incidents. Those disruptions have highlighted Kazakhstan's continued dependence on the CPC corridor and the risks posed by an expanding conflict zone. Tokayev's Proposal According to the Kremlin transcript, Tokayev told Putin that he had been receiving “many signals” from Europe and the United States regarding the current state of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and had already discussed them with the Russian president by telephone. Tokayev also stressed that he regarded the conflict as an interstate war rather than a civil war. He added that Kazakhstan had always treated the Ukrainian people, their culture and their language with respect. He further said Putin had demonstrated “maximum diplomatic flexibility” during his meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in Anchorage, Alaska. “This is simply my humble opinion, since people keep asking me: perhaps the conflict should already be frozen, and we should return to the ‘Istanbul Formula 2.0,’ because significant results had been achieved there. Then, naturally, under guarantees from the major powers, including Russia, it would be possible to move toward long-awaited peace,” Tokayev said. Tokayev also made clear that he did not intend to serve as an official mediator in any future negotiations. Tokayev did not define the formula in detail. Russia and Ukraine held talks in Istanbul in 2022 and resumed direct negotiations there in 2025, but neither round produced a settlement. It remains unclear whether he envisaged a ceasefire along the current front line, how occupied territory would be treated, or what guarantees any major powers would provide. Planned or Spontaneous? Major strategic decisions in the post-Soviet space have traditionally been shaped behind closed doors. That is one reason why Tokayev's remarks, delivered while sitting beside Putin, immediately attracted the attention of political analysts. Several experts argue that such a proposal was unlikely to have been made spontaneously. Tokayev's call to freeze the fighting and resume negotiations...

Russia's War in Ukraine

Tokayev Calls for Ukraine War Freeze as Black Sea and Caspian Risks Grow

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has called for Russia and Ukraine to freeze the war and return to negotiations, delivering one of his clearest public appeals for an end to the conflict while seated beside Russian President Vladimir Putin. "Perhaps this conflict should already be frozen and we should return to the Istanbul Formula 2.0, since significant results were achieved there," Tokayev said during talks in Omsk on July 25. He said major powers, including Russia, should provide security guarantees before the sides moved towards a lasting peace. Russia and Ukraine held talks in Istanbul soon after Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022 and resumed direct negotiations there in 2025, though neither round produced a settlement. Moscow and Kyiv dispute how close the 2022 talks came to an agreement and why they collapsed. Tokayev described the war as an "interstate conflict," and said that Kazakhstan respects the Ukrainian people, their culture and language. He also expressed concern over the deaths of young Russians and Ukrainians. Tokayev declined any formal role for Astana, but stated that he had received proposals and appeals concerning mediation, including from Europe and the United States. He said Kazakhstan was not an outsider, but that Russia was capable of resolving the issue without an intermediary. He also reaffirmed Kazakhstan's strategic partnership and allied relationship with Russia, praising what he called Putin's diplomatic flexibility during the Russian president's August 2025 meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in Anchorage. The Kremlin rejected the idea of a freeze. Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said it was impossible under Kyiv's current position. He repeated Moscow's claim that fighting could stop if Ukraine made what Russia considers the necessary decisions. Russia's stated terms include Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, including areas Moscow does not control. Putin also wants Kyiv to renounce its aim of joining NATO. Ukraine has rejected those conditions. Tokayev's position has developed publicly, but has remained centered on negotiations. In September 2024, he said Russia was "militarily invincible" and argued that continued escalation could bring about a wider disaster. He called for hostilities to stop before negotiations moved to territorial issues. Kazakhstan has also kept its distance from several central Kremlin claims. In June 2022, Tokayev refused to recognize the Russian-backed entities in Donetsk and Luhansk, describing them as "quasi-state territories." Astana has continued to cite the UN Charter, state sovereignty, and territorial integrity. The latest appeal came as the war reached shipping routes close to Kazakhstan and disrupted the country's main oil export corridor. On July 25, Iran accused Ukraine of attacking an Iranian commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea. Tehran said an explosion killed one sailor and injured another, summoning Ukraine's chargé d'affaires and describing the strike as hostile and criminal. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his forces had achieved "very strong results" with long-range strikes in the Caspian, and that targets included a Russian warship and vessels used for military cargo shipments involving Iran. Zelensky did not identify the vessels, and Iran did not name...

EU Sanctions

EU Sanctions Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Firms in Latest Russia Package

The European Union has adopted its 21st sanctions package against Russia. The measures add two companies from Kazakhstan, three from Kyrgyzstan, a Kyrgyz bank, and cryptocurrency platforms registered in several jurisdictions to separate sanctions and export-control lists. Brussels said they were designed to disrupt financial and trade channels allegedly used to circumvent existing restrictions. The package imposes asset freezes and other restrictive measures on 48 people and 170 entities. A further 51 entities were added to a list subject to tighter export controls on dual-use goods and technologies. Some are based in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, China, India, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates. According to the EU Council, the 51 entities were listed because they supported Russia’s military-industrial complex. The Council said those based outside the EU had also helped circumvent export restrictions, including those covering microelectronics, computer numerical control machine tools, and semiconductor-processing equipment. Three Bishkek-registered companies, Nova Proekt LLC, Rama Group LLC, and Shisan Ltd, were placed under the tighter export-control regime. Their inclusion means that EU exports of sensitive goods and technologies to the companies are permitted only in narrowly defined circumstances. The listing also restricts related technical and financial services, but does not automatically freeze the companies’ assets. The Council also imposed a transaction ban on EcoIslamicBank, saying it was connected to Russia’s System for Transfer of Financial Messages, or SPFS, which Moscow developed as an alternative to SWIFT. The ban, which applies to operators under EU jurisdiction, is due to take effect on August 13. The EU also extended its transaction ban to 14 cryptocurrency platforms based in Kyrgyzstan, Georgia, Panama, the UAE, the Marshall Islands, and Belarus. The two Kazakh companies placed under tighter export controls were TauKZ LLP and KBR-Technologies LLP. Both had previously been targeted by other Western governments: the United States sanctioned KBR-Technologies in June 2024, while the United Kingdom sanctioned TauKZ in November 2024. The measures continue a policy already reflected in earlier sanctions packages. In April, the EU used its anti-circumvention mechanism against Kyrgyzstan for the first time, banning EU exports of computer numerical control machine tools and radios to the country. Brussels said trade data showed a significant rise in the re-export of high-priority goods through Kyrgyzstan to Russia. On June 9, the EU held a sanctions seminar in Bishkek for banks, logistics operators, exporters, and virtual-asset businesses. The session covered financial restrictions, export controls, penalties, and how companies could comply with the rules. It took place less than two months after the EU first applied its anti-circumvention mechanism to Kyrgyzstan. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kyrgyz authorities have also ordered 50 companies to cease operations after state agencies identified them as presenting heightened sanctions risks. The government did not disclose their names, owners, or sectors.

Black Sea Tanker Attacks

Kazakhstan Oil Output Falls 21% as CPC Halt More Than Halves Tengiz Production

Kazakhstan's oil and gas condensate output fell by about 21% on July 22 after the Caspian Pipeline Consortium stopped receiving Kazakh crude and suspended loadings at its Black Sea terminal. Output dropped to 1.63 million barrels per day from a July average of 2.07 million, Reuters said, citing an industry source. The sharpest reduction came at Tengiz, Kazakhstan's largest oilfield. Production fell by 56%, from an average 925,000 barrels per day in July to about 406,000 on Wednesday, reflecting how quickly a halt at Novorossiysk can force cuts at a field more than 1,500 kilometres away. Kazakhstan's Energy Ministry confirmed the reduction, stating that producers had cut output because CPC had restricted intake and their storage tanks were nearing capacity. "The adjustment was a technical measure intended to keep production operations stable," the ministry said. It added that CPC’s production facilities remained operational and could resume shipments when conditions allowed. Consultations were continuing with the consortium, producers, shipowners, and state agencies. No timetable was given. Tengiz Bears the Brunt Chevron began production from the $48 billion Future Growth Project in January 2025. The expansion was designed to add 260,000 barrels of crude per day and raise total Tengiz output to about one million barrels of oil equivalent per day at full capacity. Chevron owns 50% of Tengizchevroil, while ExxonMobil holds 25%, KazMunayGas 20%, and Lukoil 5%. The field provides a large share of Kazakhstan's oil production and export income. After the tanker ASIA was struck on July 19, Chevron told The Times of Central Asia that the crew was safe and the vessel was stable. "There has been no impact to TCO operations or exports," the company said. However, by July 22, the export halt had forced cuts at Tengiz. Chevron did not immediately comment on the new production figures cited by Reuters. The cut compounds a difficult year for the sector. Kazakhstan produced 45.7 million tonnes of oil in the first half of 2026, down 8.4% from a year earlier. The Energy Ministry still expects 98 million tonnes for the full year, after lowering its previous target because of Tengiz outages and earlier CPC disruption. Kazakhstan's OPEC+ crude quota rose to 1.608 million barrels per day for July. The national output figure includes gas condensate and cannot be compared directly with the crude allocation. The latest reduction removes barrels Kazakhstan intended to export. The timing adds to the revenue loss. Brent rose above $100 on July 23 after attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea added to disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. Tanker Attacks Halt CPC Loadings The production cuts followed a series of attacks on tankers near CPC's marine terminal. The Chevron-chartered Yasa Polaris was hit on July 7 while empty and waiting offshore. Its crew was safe, and no pollution or major hull damage was reported. Nordic Zenith was struck on July 17 while empty and approaching the terminal. ASIA and NISSOS IOS were hit on July 19 while loading Kazakhstan-produced crude. Loading briefly resumed...