Kazakhstan - The Times Of Central Asia

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Energy and Infrastructure

Opinion: Kazakhstan Energy Expansion May Not Guarantee a Lasting Surplus

Kazakhstan plans to commission 13.3 GW of power capacity by the end of 2029, including 12.56 GW of entirely new generation, in a build-out the government says will move the country from deficit to sustained surplus. But new industrial projects and large data centers could absorb part of that margin almost as soon as it appears. According to Energy Ministry projections, Kazakhstan expects to eliminate its electricity deficit by the end of the first quarter of 2027 and move to a sustained surplus by 2029. The projected electricity balance for 2029 calls for generation of 162.1 billion kWh against consumption of 144.5 billion kWh, leaving a surplus of 17.6 billion kWh. However, it is difficult to predict exactly how much electricity the country will need three years from now. Therefore the forecast "surplus" will not necessarily become a reserve available for future industrial projects. Energy Hungry Data Centers Kazakhstan is pursuing a swathe of new energy-intensive industrial projects, while data centers are emerging as another major source of electricity demand. The Data Center Valley project is being developed in Ekibastuz, where the government says 300 MW of power capacity has already been secured, with plans to expand to 1 GW. It cites competitive electricity costs and the ability to scale up as advantages of the location. At full scale, such a cluster would itself become a major electricity consumer. If it drew 1 GW continuously, it would consume about 8.76 billion kWh a year – roughly half the projected national surplus for 2029. Kazakhstan’s digital ambitions already extend beyond a single data center. In June, the government announced $10 billion in agreements with U.S.-based Firebird and NVIDIA to build a large AI computing center using 100,000 advanced computer chips. The project will form part of the Data Center Valley initiative. By the end of 2029, Kazakhstan plans to commission 13.3 GW of capacity, of which 12.56 GW will come from entirely new generating facilities and 0.74 GW will replace existing capacity. According to the Energy Ministry, 7.4 GW of the total will be baseload generation and another 5.9 GW will come from renewable energy sources. The full 13.3 GW cannot be treated as spare power for new factories and data centers. Some will be needed to meet rising demand and make the electricity system more reliable. Solar and wind power also cannot produce at full capacity all the time. This is particularly important during periods of peak demand, when the power system must cope simultaneously with high consumption and possible maintenance or outages at generating facilities. A projected annual surplus measured in billions of kilowatt-hours and the amount of capacity available during a particular peak hour are therefore different measures. Upkeep of Current Power Sources The condition of existing generation remains a separate problem. Much of Kazakhstan’s thermal generation is aging and requires modernization. The Energy Ministry reported that 411 billion tenge was allocated to the 2025 repair campaign, during which 10 power units, 63 boilers, and 39 turbines were repaired. It said...

E-Commerce

Kazakhstan E-Commerce Grows as Shoppers Spend over $8 Billion in 2025

Kazakh consumers spent 3.77 trillion tenge (about $8.2 billion) on online purchases in 2025, roughly 50% more than two years earlier. E-commerce now accounts for 14.3% of the country’s retail market, with most sales taking place through marketplaces such as Kaspi.kz, Wildberries, and Ozon. A marketplace is a digital platform that brings together products from multiple sellers rather than operating as a single retailer’s online store. In 2025, they accounted for 86% of online retail sales, up from 84.9% a year earlier, according to Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics. The share of sales through retailers’ own websites fell from 15.1% to 14%, although their turnover still rose in absolute terms. The online shopping basket is changing as well. Phones and gadgets remain the largest category, accounting for 17.1%. Clothing, footwear, and sporting goods make up 12.4%, household goods 12.1%, home appliances 10.3%, and food 7.4%. Growth in the grocery segment is changing delivery requirements. Five dark-store projects – facilities used to process online orders – were built in Almaty, Astana, Karaganda, and Aktobe last year. Marketplaces also installed 2,300 new parcel lockers. The rapid growth of the market has been supported by the widespread use of cashless payments, banking apps, and retail fintech. Domestic platforms are developing alongside major foreign players, intensifying competition for Kazakh consumers. But the presence of large cross-border platforms also creates additional logistical risks. In July, Ukrainian strikes on Wildberries logistics facilities in Russia affected Kazakh sellers that relied on the company’s Russian infrastructure. Following the attacks, Wildberries began searching for additional warehouse capacity in Kazakhstan, where the company is already developing logistics complexes in Almaty and Astana. Expanding domestic warehousing and infrastructure can shorten delivery times and reduce the dependence of some trade flows on logistics centers abroad. New Kazakh players are also emerging. In Karaganda, for example, the Teez marketplace is developing its own warehouse infrastructure and nationwide delivery network. The market’s growth has also brought problems for sellers, with Kazakh entrepreneurs citing difficulties with international payments and double taxation among the main barriers to growth. For small businesses, marketplaces provide access to a large customer base, but they also make sales dependent on the platform’s commissions and logistics. The rules for foreign players are changing as well. Since January 1, 2026, foreign marketplaces serving Kazakh consumers have been required to comply with new tax laws. The VAT rate for foreign platforms has risen from 12% to 16%. The legislation also allows Kazakhstan to suspend access to platforms that ignore registration notices. The government is anticipating further e-commerce growth. The Ministry of Trade’s official target is to increase its share of retail turnover to 18.5% by 2029. In 2024, the market was worth about 3.2 trillion tenge and accounted for 14.1% of retail trade, the Ministry of Trade and Integration said its volume had increased roughly fivefold since 2020. E-commerce is now expanding from a much larger base. Marketplaces already account for the overwhelming majority of online sales, so the next stage of market development will depend not...

Kurultai Election

Kazakhstan’s First Kurultai Election Draws Broad Observation

When Kazakhstan goes to the polls on August 23, it will elect the first 145 members of the new Kurultai and set its redesigned parliamentary system in motion. The vote, held less than two months after the new Constitution took effect, will be followed by 777 accredited international observers and a broad range of Kazakh monitoring groups. The foreign contingent spans 42 countries and 13 international organizations. Some are professional election monitors who have been working in Kazakhstan for weeks; others are parliamentarians, foreign election officials, or bilateral guests. Their roles are different: ODIHR provides the detailed technical scrutiny, while the wider contingent gives the election a broad international audience. The most detailed technical assessment will come from the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, or ODIHR. Its core team and long-term observers have been in the country since July, and the organization requested 300 short-term observers for election day. They will follow polling station opening, voting, counting, and tabulation, while the wider mission examines election administration, the campaign, political finance, media coverage, and complaints. On the mechanics of election administration, ODIHR reported in its August 7 interim report that preparations were on schedule. Nationwide training and voter education were underway, and the Central Election Commission (CEC) had promptly published its decisions. Most people consulted by the mission expressed confidence in the administration’s technical capacity, although some questioned the impartiality and independence of lower-level commissions. Kazakh organizations are preparing their own observation efforts. By August 3, 13 civil society groups had received national accreditation, and 247 had been accredited through territorial commissions. The El Dauysy Public Foundation says it has trained more than 6,000 observers since 2020, creating an experienced pool that has participated in successive national votes. After uncertainty over new foreign-funding rules, the CEC clarified that foreign support alone would not invalidate accreditation and that cases would be considered individually. The closest recent regional comparison is Uzbekistan’s 2024 parliamentary election. Uzbekistan accredited 851 international observers across 11,028 polling stations, while Kazakhstan has accredited 777 across 10,423. That makes the international observer presence broadly comparable relative to the number of polling stations. The clearer difference lies in domestic monitoring. According to ODIHR, Uzbek law contained no provision for citizen observation, while Kazakhstan has accredited civil society organizations at both national and territorial levels. In Kyrgyzstan’s 2025 election, the election commission accredited only two citizen organizations, each of which appointed one observer. The contrast is wider with Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. ODIHR cancelled its planned mission to Tajikistan’s 2025 parliamentary election after the authorities failed to assure that observers would be accredited and allowed to work. In Turkmenistan in 2023, ODIHR sent a small assessment team that did not systematically monitor voting, counting or tabulation. Across the region, Kazakhstan stands out for the combination rather than any one measure: a full ODIHR mission, a large and geographically varied foreign contingent, and legally accredited domestic organizations preparing extensive coverage of the same election. Observer totals cannot determine the quality of...

Gulzira Zhantemir

How a Ballerina from Kazakhstan Built a Career in German Ballet

When Gulzira Zhantemir arrived in Kiel, Germany, in 2017, she spoke virtually no German or English. Behind her were eight years at a ballet school in Almaty and three seasons at Astana Opera; ahead lay an unfamiliar country and theater system in which she would have to prove herself all over again. Nine years later, Zhantemir is completing this chapter as an established member of Ballett Kiel, with a repertoire encompassing classical and contemporary work. In 2023, the Gesellschaft der Freunde des Theaters in Kiel awarded her its Förderpreis in recognition of her work with the company. For Zhantemir, the path to this European career began much earlier, in Kazakhstan, and almost by chance. At the age of four, her mother enrolled her in a dance group at the local Palace of Schoolchildren, a type of extracurricular education center common across the former Soviet Union. Her first classes were not in ballet. Everything changed in the fourth grade, when teachers from the Alexander Seleznev Almaty Choreographic School came to her school looking for children suited to professional training. Her mother enjoyed watching ballet on television and encouraged her to try. At 10, Zhantemir entered the school and began eight years of professional ballet training, with daily classes and rehearsals alongside rigorous academic preparation. She graduated with honors in 2014 and won a gold medal at the Orleu International Ballet Competition that same year. After graduating, Zhantemir joined Astana Opera, the State Opera and Ballet Theatre in Kazakhstan’s capital. She had long wanted to move to Europe. Doing so meant leaving behind an established professional life and starting again with an audition. In 2017, Zhantemir successfully auditioned for Ballett Kiel, part of Theater Kiel, the municipal theater in this northern German city. The move also required her to adapt to a different way of working. “At Astana Opera, there was more time for rehearsals for each production and more space. Theater Kiel is much more compact, and we have one main stage, so we have to plan our time very precisely,” Zhantemir said. Even with those constraints, Kiel offered the professional variety Zhantemir had sought in Europe. “Working abroad gives you an incredible opportunity to train with guest choreographers and teachers from around the world and learn different contemporary and classical techniques,” she said. Outside the theater, other dancers from Kazakhstan and Ukrainian choreographer Yaroslav Ivanenko, who led Ballett Kiel for many years, helped her settle in while she learned German. Gradually, her list of roles grew beyond the classical repertoire. Zhantemir danced both central female roles in Giselle, Giselle herself and Myrtha, Queen of the Wilis. Her repertoire came to include Odette in Swan Lake and Hermia in A Midsummer Night’s Dream. She also appeared in West Side Story and contemporary productions. Her Kiel roles included Swanilda in Coppélia and Cinderella. With another company, she performed Kitri in Don Quixote. For a ballet dancer, the differences between these roles are significant. Kitri requires virtuosity and temperament, while Giselle calls for...

Middle Corridor

Kazakhstan Middle Corridor Railway Cuts Detour, but Caspian Bottlenecks Remain

Kazakhstan expects to complete the roughly 323-kilometer Moyynty-Kyzylzhar railway across the Karaganda and Ulytau regions of central Kazakhstan by the end of 2026. The new line will shorten the Middle Corridor by 149 kilometers and ease congestion on the existing route via Zharyk. Kazakhstan Temir Zholy said in July that 202.5 kilometers of track had been laid. For the China-Europe route, however, the next test is the Caspian Sea. Containers must be transferred from trains at ports in Kazakhstan to ships bound for Azerbaijan, then returned to rail. The speed and regularity of these transfers will determine whether the hours saved within Kazakhstan translate into shorter delivery times. What the New Line Changes Moyynty-Kyzylzhar will give transit trains a more direct route from the Chinese border toward the Caspian and ease pressure on the Moyynty-Zharyk section, where east-west freight competes with domestic traffic. The project is designed to accommodate double-stack container trains and includes provisions for future expansion and electrification. The World Bank projects that capacity on the section will rise from 14 to 28 pairs of freight trains per day, while transit time via the new route is targeted to fall from eight hours to six by 2031. In February, the World Bank approved an $846 million guarantee intended to mobilize $1.41 billion in commercial financing for the project. Across Kazakhstan, the time savings will be more modest. Transit from Dostyk, on the Chinese border, to Aktau is expected to fall from about 72 hours to 68 hours by 2031. Farther west, the country is also modernizing the Shalkar-Beineu and Beineu-Mangystau sections leading toward the Caspian ports. The Caspian Remains a Bottleneck The European Union (EU) aims to reduce transit time along the Trans-Caspian route to no more than 15 days. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has estimated that the route has the potential to move cargo between China and Europe in around 18 days, but infrastructure and connectivity constraints have produced transit times ranging from 14 to 60 days. For shippers, reliability is as important as speed. Freight Is Growing Faster Than Caspian Capacity Pressure on the Caspian section is already increasing. In 2025, Kazmortransflot carried 59,400 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) on the Aktau-Baku-Aktau feeder route, more than 15% above the 2024 level of 51,400 TEU. In May 2026, container traffic between Aktau and Azerbaijan reached a company record of 7,451 TEU. Kazakhstan is expanding its port infrastructure as well. The EBRD and the EU are financing upgrades at Aktau, including two dedicated container berths and new handling equipment. The project is expected to double the port’s container-handling capacity. Caspian fleet capacity is another constraint as rail freight grows. Falling Caspian Sea levels are also limiting how fully some vessels can be loaded. From an Alternative to Russia to a Commercial Route After 2022, geopolitics increased demand for the Middle Corridor. It offered Europe a route to Central Asia and China that bypasses Russia, while providing Kazakhstan with another connection to European markets. The corridor increasingly has to compete on commercial terms....

Electricity Supply

Kazakhstan Targets End to Electricity Deficit by 2027

Just days after a major disruption hit power systems across Central Asia, Kazakhstan reaffirmed its plan to fully cover domestic electricity demand by the first quarter of 2027. By the end of next year, the Energy Ministry expects the country to have a surplus of about 1.3 billion kWh. That margin would still leave relatively little room for error because it is equivalent to only about 1% of the electricity Kazakhstan consumed in 2025, when demand grew by 3.8%. The August 14 outage affected parts of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. Power was cut to some consumers in Almaty, Kazakhstan’s largest city, which has a population of about 2.4 million. The precise chain of events remains unclear. Kazakhstan’s national grid operator KEGOC said the disruption began when two hydrogenerators at Kyrgyzstan’s Toktogul Hydropower Plant shut down, sharply changing power flows and overloading Kazakhstan’s North-East-South transmission corridor. Kyrgyzstan’s Energy Ministry later acknowledged that the Toktogul shutdown was the initial disturbance but said it should not automatically be treated as the direct cause of the subsequent outages elsewhere in Central Asia. A special commission is investigating the incident, although public statements so far have not identified its chair. The outage exposed a risk in regional grid connections. Kazakhstan’s grid is connected to Russia and neighboring Central Asian systems. These links allow electricity to move across borders, but a sudden loss of generation or a major transmission failure can also affect several countries in quick succession. Kazakhstan has been a net electricity importer for several years. In 2025, the country generated 123.1 billion kWh and consumed 124.6 billion kWh. Electricity imports from Russia totaled 4.64 billion kWh, compared with exports of 2.16 billion kWh in the opposite direction. The net inflow from Russia fell from 3.41 billion kWh in 2024 to 2.48 billion kWh in 2025. Electricity consumption increased by 3.8% in 2025, while peak demand reached a record 17.724 GW on December 18. Kazakhstan is also seeking to attract energy-intensive industries and large data centers. Those expectations are reflected in longer-term development plans, which already include 7.8 GW of new and modernized coal-fired generation by 2030, with investment estimated at more than $15.5 billion. The authorities expect to close the remaining short-term deficit by rapidly commissioning new generating capacity. Around 2.6 GW is scheduled to come online in 2026. Four gas-fired power plants and expansion projects at two existing power stations account for part of that capacity, while ten new renewable energy facilities are also planned. The Energy Ministry says these projects should allow Kazakhstan to fully meet its electricity needs by the end of the first quarter of 2027. A further 845 MW is planned for 2027, of which 570 MW would come from renewable projects. By the end of that year, the ministry expects an electricity surplus of around 1.3 billion kWh. Renewable energy is expanding alongside Kazakhstan’s continued reliance on conventional generation. Thermal power plants accounted for 74.4% of electricity generation in 2025. Solar and wind facilities, along with biogas plants, provided 6.1%. The...