Kyrgyzstan Environment - The Times Of Central Asia

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Climate Change

Central Asia’s Climate Risks Could Cost Up to 130% of GDP by 2080

By 2080, climate change is expected to have a profound impact on the economies of Central Asian countries, with potential losses ranging from 20% to 130% of GDP. The most severe effects are projected for mountainous nations. These estimates were presented at a CAREC technology forum by Iskandar Abdullaev, a senior research fellow at the International Water Management Institute in Uzbekistan. According to Abdullaev, climate change is no longer solely an environmental issue but an increasingly significant economic factor. Key risks include droughts and water scarcity, floods, heatwaves, and glacier melt. The projected economic impact varies across the region. Tajikistan could face losses of between 80% and 130% of GDP, Kyrgyzstan 70% to 120%, Kazakhstan 40% to 80%, Uzbekistan 30% to 45%, and Turkmenistan 20% to 60%. Abdullaev emphasized that mountainous countries – Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan – are particularly vulnerable, as climate change directly affects water resources. Glacier melt reduces river flows, creating challenges for both energy production and water supply. Droughts and extreme heat are already placing pressure on agriculture, with declining crop yields and reduced pasture productivity. Without adaptation measures, the region’s long-term sustainability could be at risk. Experts stress that mitigation and adaptation efforts are essential to reduce these risks. These include modernizing irrigation systems, adopting climate-resilient agricultural technologies, and expanding renewable energy capacity. This is not the only warning. According to the World Bank, natural disasters are already causing significant economic damage in Central Asia. Losses from extreme events, including floods and earthquakes, can reach up to 6% of GDP, with earthquakes alone accounting for up to $2 billion in damages. At the same time, countries in the region face substantial financing gaps following major disasters. In Tajikistan, this gap could reach up to $1.5 billion. Experts warn that climate change is likely to intensify these risks, further increasing the economic burden on the region.

Air Quality

Air Quality Report Shows Central Asia’s Air Getting Rapidly Worse

Tajikistan ranked as the world’s third most polluted country in 2025, according to the latest World Air Quality Report by IQAir. The report analyzed PM2.5 concentrations across 9,446 cities in 143 countries and territories. PM2.5, fine particulate matter measured in micrograms per cubic meter, is widely used as a key indicator of air pollution. The five most polluted countries in 2025 were Pakistan (67.3 µg/m³), Bangladesh (66.1 µg/m³), Tajikistan (57.3 µg/m³), Chad (53.6 µg/m³), and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (50.2 µg/m³). Only 13 countries and territories met the World Health Organization annual PM2.5 guideline of 5 µg/m³, including Australia, Iceland, and Estonia. Overall, 130 out of 143 countries exceeded the guideline. Kazakhstan records the cleanest air in Central Asia, but still had the 29th worst air globally in 2025, a very significant decline from 71st in 2024. Uzbekistan has the region's dirtiest air, and the 10th worst worldwide, while Kyrgyzstan is only slightly better, in 19th. Like Kazakhstan, both countries have fallen down the rankings since they were last put together in 2024. Kyrgyzstan had been in 41st place, while Uzbekistan has fallen from 19th. Turkmenistan, which was also among the 30 most polluted countries in 2024, was not included in the 2025 report due to a lack of available data. Karaganda in Kazakhstan is Central Asia's most polluted city, ranking 26th globally in 2025. The city recorded an annual PM2.5 level of 72.6 µg/m³, more than ten times the WHO guideline. Other heavily polluted cities in the region included Fergana (30th, 68.8 µg/m³), Dushanbe (51st, 57.3 µg/m³), Guliston (100th), and Tashkent (225th, 39 µg/m³). The report also noted that the world’s 25 most polluted cities in 2025 were all located in India, Pakistan, and China, with India accounting for three of the top four.

Qosh Tepa Canal

Afghanistan Advances Qosh Tepa Canal While Urging Regional Water Cooperation

Uzbekistan just hosted the Tashkent Water Week forum, and the speaker many wanted to hear from was the representative from Afghanistan. Central Asia and Afghanistan are being hit hard by climate change. This region has endured several droughts already this decade, and indications are that this year will bring drought again. Hanging over the forum was Afghanistan’s plan to complete the Qosh-Tepa Canal in 2028, which will draw water from a river that Central Asian countries also use and further complicate the regional water situation. [caption id="attachment_18865" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Qosh Tepa Canal, artist's rendition; image: TCA, Aleksandr Potolitsyn[/caption] Our Fair Share The forum, which actually spanned only two days, March 25-26, brought together some 80 speakers and more than 1,200 delegates from 19 countries. In the past five years, Central Asia has seen noticeably diminished precipitation, melting glaciers, and record high temperatures, making water conservation a priority. The last days of March saw temperatures soar into the 30s Celsius in southern Kazakhstan. In both Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, there were record-high temperatures in February. Rainfall for the last three months of 2025 was also far below normal across Central Asia. When the Taliban government announced in early 2022 that it would build the 285-kilometer-long, 100-meter-wide, 8.5-meter-deep Qosh Tepa to irrigate lands in northern Afghanistan, it added another water concern to Central Asia, particularly the governments in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Afghanistan’s Deputy Minister of Water and Energy, Mujeeb-ur-Rahman Omar, led the Afghan delegation at the Tashkent Water Week. At the forum, he repeated his government’s position that historically, Afghanistan has taken only very small volumes of water from the Amu-Darya River basin, while its northern neighbors have been using large amounts for irrigation for decades. “We believe in the fair and sustainable development of the region,” Omar said, adding, “We intend to develop (water resources) on a legal basis, in accordance with the legal rights of the countries in the region.“ Omar is correct that under international law, Afghanistan has an equal right to water from the Amu-Darya, one of Central Asia’s two great rivers. The river currently marks the border between Afghanistan to the south, and Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and a small section of Turkmenistan to the north. There is no separate regional water use agreement between the Central Asian states and Afghanistan. Since none of the Central Asian governments officially recognize the Taliban as the legitimate Afghan government, Russia is the only country that does at the moment, there is no possibility of a legal treaty on water use being signed. So, shortly after the construction of the canal is finished in 2028, some 20% of the water in the Amu-Darya, starting from the point just west of the Tajik-Uzbek border, will be diverted into the Qosh Tepa canal. It is already clear that this will mean the end of some downstream communities in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan that are on the edge of the Kara-Kum Desert and which are already under strain from insufficient water supplies. Turkmenistan did not send a...

Mountains

Kyrgyzstan Elected First Vice-Chair of UN Mountain Partnership

Kyrgyzstan has been elected First Vice-Chair of the Steering Committee of the Mountain Partnership for the 2026-2030 period, reflecting its continued engagement in advancing the global mountain agenda. Founded in 2002, the Mountain Partnership is a United Nations alliance of governments and organizations aimed at improving the livelihoods of mountain communities and protecting mountain ecosystems. The initiative was established by the governments of Italy and Switzerland, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and the Food and Agriculture Organization, which hosts the partnership’s secretariat. The new Steering Committee was elected during the 7th Global Meeting of the Mountain Partnership, held from March 26 to 28 in Andorra under the theme “Mountains for the Future: Responsible Tourism, Thriving Communities.” The meeting brought together representatives from Germany, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Italy, Mongolia, Montenegro, Nepal, and Kyrgyzstan, as well as officials from international organizations including FAO, UN Tourism, UNESCO, the OSCE, UNEP, the United Nations Development Programme, and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Italy, the partnership’s main donor, retained its position as Chair. Kyrgyzstan was represented by Dinara Kemelova, the president’s special representative for the mountain agenda, who called for stronger coordination among mountain countries to advance shared priorities on global platforms. Kemelova also announced that the second “Bishkek+25” Global Mountain Summit will be held in Kyrgyzstan from October 21 to 23, 2027. She highlighted the country’s implementation of the Five Years of Action for the Development of Mountain Regions (2023-2027), with a focus on ecotourism and organic production. An exhibition of Kyrgyz mountain products was also organized on the sidelines of the meeting. The meeting concluded with the adoption of the Andorra Declaration, a strategic document aimed at strengthening international commitment to sustainable mountain development. The declaration recognizes the role of mountains in combating climate change, preserving biodiversity, and ensuring food security, while also highlighting their vulnerability to global environmental impacts. Mountains cover around one quarter of the Earth’s land surface and are home to approximately 1.2 billion people, while also encompassing 25 of the world’s 36 biodiversity hotspots. The document outlines several priority areas, including promoting sustainable tourism as a key economic driver for mountain regions, increasing climate and environmental financing, strengthening research and scientific cooperation, and supporting local communities, including women, youth, and indigenous groups. It also emphasizes the need to improve connectivity in mountain areas, reduce the digital divide, and enhance resilience to natural hazards through early warning systems and adapted infrastructure.

Climate Change

Melting Glaciers Becoming an Increasing Threat to Central Asia’s Resources

Glacier melt in Central Asia is becoming increasingly critical, posing risks to water resources, economic stability, and regional security. In response, countries in the region are strengthening coordination and launching new scientific and policy initiatives. According to the UN, glaciers in the world’s mountainous regions are shrinking at an unprecedented rate. Rising temperatures are leading to a longer warm season and a shorter winter, accelerating the process of degradation. Glaciers remain a key element of the global water system: they account for about 70% of freshwater reserves, and nearly two billion people depend directly on these resources. In addition, they perform an important climatic function by reflecting solar radiation and limiting the warming of the Earth’s surface. Central Asia is already facing the consequences of climate change. The region is under increasing pressure from rising temperatures, droughts, and dust storms. Tajikistan remains particularly vulnerable. According to President Emomali Rahmon, of the approximately 14,000 glaciers that the country once had, more than 1,000 have already disappeared, and their total volume has shrunk by nearly a third. Yet it is these glaciers that account for over 60% of the region’s water resources. In Kyrgyzstan, the area of glaciers has decreased by approximately 16% over the past 50-70 years. President Sadyr Japarov previously warned that, if current trends continue, a significant portion of them could disappear by the end of the 21st century, posing a threat to millions of residents in the region. In response to the growing crisis, at Tajikistan’s initiative, the UN General Assembly declared 2025 the International Year of Glacier Conservation. The official launch took place on March 21 in New York and coincided with the first World Glacier Day. At an international conference in Dushanbe, the Dushanbe Declaration was adopted, expressing concern over the accelerated loss of glaciers, snow cover, and permafrost. The document highlights the potentially “irreversible consequences” for ecosystems and the economy. The five countries of Central Asia are also developing joint adaptation mechanisms. Key measures include monitoring the condition of glaciers, creating a unified regional registry, and coordinating water policy.

Environment

Kyrgyz Retailers Prepare for Gradual Phase-Out of Plastic

Pressure is increasing on businesses in Kyrgyzstan to reduce their use of plastic. However, judging by the government’s latest initiatives, the transition to new environmental standards is expected to be gradual and shaped by compromise. The Ministry of Natural Resources, Ecology, and Technical Supervision has announced the launch of the “Green Entrepreneur” platform, through which companies willing to phase out plastic can obtain official recognition. The initiative comes alongside preparations for large-scale restrictions on the use of plastic bags, scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2027. Although a full ban has not yet been introduced, several major retailers have already begun reducing their use of plastic bags and bottles. Both domestic companies and international brands are participating in the process. According to the ministry, the government and the business community have agreed on a series of joint measures that are expected to reshape the packaging market in the coming years. First Deputy Minister of Natural Resources Zhenish Seydaliev described plastic pollution as a global challenge, stressing that Kyrgyzstan has the potential to take a leading role in addressing the issue at the regional level. “Only joint cooperation will lead to sustainable business development that incorporates environmental responsibility and high standards of corporate governance,” he said. One of the key instruments under discussion is the introduction of separate waste collection systems. Authorities are encouraging businesses to incentivize consumers to return plastic bottles and aluminum cans by installing reverse vending machines, automated devices that offer bonuses or refunds. Such machines are expected to appear in retail chains, markets, fuel stations, food courts, and educational institutions. At the same time, companies are being urged to switch to biodegradable packaging, a move that would require significant adjustments to logistics and operational processes. The ministry emphasizes that the reforms are not limited to banning specific products but are aimed at a broader transformation of consumption patterns. At the same time, the final regulatory framework remains under discussion. Earlier proposals from the Cabinet of Ministers suggested abandoning a complete ban on plastic products from 2027. Under a draft law currently undergoing public consultation, certain plastic products may continue to be permitted provided they comply with the Eurasian Economic Union’s technical regulation on packaging safety. This approach reflects an effort to balance environmental objectives with economic considerations. Some restrictions are already being implemented at the regional level. The Issyk-Kul region has introduced a ban on plastic bags, which is being treated as a pilot project for potential nationwide reforms. Nevertheless, significant structural challenges remain. Plastic is estimated to account for up to one quarter of all waste in Kyrgyzstan’s landfills. Domestic production meets only around 15% of demand, with the remainder imported primarily from China, Iran, and Kazakhstan.